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Govt reveals Bt276bn deficit


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21 minutes ago, ExpatPH said:

Export down.

Real tourist arrival numbers down.

Both, most likely to decline further.

 

No sale of reserve gold / reserve baht.

Continued high / huge spending in public sector, and infrastructure.

 

 

Export down.

--Normal in a world based on globalization, movimentation of capital, speculation and wild competition.

 

Real tourist arrival numbers down.

--Normal in a Police State

 

Continued high / huge spending in public sector, and infrastructure.

--J.M.Keynes is turning in his grave after this affirmation

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3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

The treasury reserve was at 495 B Baht before the junta took power in 2014; a deficit of 176 B. I hope the opposition MPs will push this government to explain the shortfall as the huge deficit reduces cash liquidity in case of emergency or massive tragedy like the tsunami. 

This treasury reserve balance issue has been done to death on previous threads. See this one from 2017:

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/967758-pm-prayut-denies-the-government-is-broke/page/7/?tab=comments#comment-11602852

 

The movement in the reserve balances during the year is mainly linked to the cyclical nature of the tax revenues. In particular the corporate tax payments (with most companies having 31Dec year ends) due in months 5 and 8. Thus, the reserve balance spikes at that time and diminishes during other periods as expenditures tend to be more evenly spread out during the year.

 

There is a more recent BOT publication that has a 'Treasury Cash' graph on page 7 that clearly shows these periodic spikes continuing.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/Graph/Chart_Pack/Chart Pack.pdf

 

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8 minutes ago, dabhand said:

This treasury reserve balance issue has been done to death on previous threads. See this one from 2017:

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/967758-pm-prayut-denies-the-government-is-broke/page/7/?tab=comments#comment-11602852

 

The movement in the reserve balances during the year is mainly linked to the cyclical nature of the tax revenues. In particular the corporate tax payments (with most companies having 31Dec year ends) due in months 5 and 8. Thus, the reserve balance spikes at that time and diminishes during other periods as expenditures tend to be more evenly spread out during the year.

 

There is a more recent BOT publication that has a 'Treasury Cash' graph on page 7 that clearly shows these periodic spikes continuing.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/Graph/Chart_Pack/Chart Pack.pdf

 

I can agree with your explanation that periodic spikes are quite normal linked to personal and corporate tax. I am just concern about the spending or expenditures on infra structure and stimulus policies that went unabated during the junta government and a passive NLA not confronting the junta for accountability. There is a legal range for the treasury reserves and the junta has in the past broke the lower limit and no questions asked. Now that we have oppositions in Parliament, they should more robust in questioning the spending on behalf of the people they represent. 

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6 hours ago, candide said:

Complete B.S.

2,128 - 1.563 = .565

So the budget deficit is 565 billion, not 275. That's also 26% of expenses. Borrowing money to finance a deficit does not reduce the amount of the  deficit.

Mai Pen Rai just add it to the debt.

thailand-external-debt.png?s=thailandext

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6 hours ago, candide said:

So the budget deficit is 565 billion, not 275.

(Gross Deficit at Bt565 billion) - (Treasury Reserve at Bt319.26 billion) = Bt245.74 billion

Maybe most of the Treasury Reserve is considered a budget surplus?

But such reserve might be deceptive in total if treated as a fungible asset depending on what it represents and how it is actually being used (ie., vs a savings account).

 

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18 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

that should start easing the baht down a tad

Here we go again! The Thai Visa "Armchair Financial Experts" banging on their keyboards again.

Spare me days. Why arn't you people making millions on the ForeX markets rather than wasting your time here?

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37 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

(Gross Deficit at Bt565 billion) - (Treasury Reserve at Bt319.26 billion) = Bt245.74 billion

Maybe most of the Treasury Reserve is considered a budget surplus?

But such reserve might be deceptive in total if treated as a fungible asset depending on what it represents and how it is actually being used (ie., vs a savings account).

 

I don't think so. The treasury reserve is a reserve. ????

The budget deficit/surplus is always the difference between income and expenses during a fiscal year.

 

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No prizes for guessing where the money went.

 

How long before Thailand goes bust, like it did in '97, when Daddy Farang in the form of the IMF had to bail out Thailand to the tune of 17 Billion US$. How soon the Thais forget who helped them. Now we get treated as Aliens.

 

I don't like having to keep 800k in Thai Baht. With the Junta running things it's only a matter of time before the economy collapses.

 

 

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