SET, baht will get stronger with lowering of policy rates worldwide: financial market expert

[snoop1130]

SET, baht will get stronger with lowering of policy rates worldwide: financial market expert

By PHUWIT LIMVIPHUWAT, THE NATION

 

"Interest rates will be a key factor in determining the level of capital inflow into Thailand’s stock market," says Passakorn Linmaneechote, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Securities.

 

The Stock Market of Thailand (SET) index could reach 1,775 points by the end of the year thanks to positive impacts from the lowering of interest rates by central banks across the world and their dovish sentiments, predicts Kasikorn Securities, a component of the Kasikorn Bank. 

 

“We expect Indonesia’s central bank to lower interest rates by the end of this month, making it the third central bank in Asean to do so in the past month after the Philippines and Malaysia,” said Passakorn Linmaneechote, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Securities, adding that the US Federal Reserve is likely to do the same at least once this year. 

 

Passakorn expects the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to maintain interest rates at 1.75 all this year because, he reckons, the Monetary Policy Committee will focus on financial stability over stimulating the economy through monetary measures. 

 

However, the committee’s statement after their next meeting in July could signal that BOT is willing to reduce its policy rate if the Thai currency continues strengthening and the economy continues slowing down at an alarming rate. He said this statement could also generate a positive reaction in the stock market. 

 

With dovish sentiments voiced by central banks across the world, with some lowering their policy rates, bond prices will rise and yields will drop, leading to more capital flowing into stock markets, including the SET, Passakorn added. 

 

The financial market expert expects the baht to stay strong at around Bt31 per US dollar all this year, and is advising the government to stimulate investment in rural areas and encourage private individual banking. He is also advising large companies in Thailand to invest overseas to lower the country’s current account surplus and subsequently weaken the baht. 

 

“A strong baht has had an overall negative impact on the Thai economy, particularly since the electronics and agricultural sectors – Thailand’s key export industries – have been seeing lower profit margins and a drop in export figures since the beginning of this year,” Passakorn said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30372656https://assets.thaivisa.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2019_07/logo2.jpg.5327dfc3eba915081b030a0f0dc72996.jpg

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand  2019-07-09

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[HeyHeyHey]

They won't do anything, because the higher ups do not want it.

 

Puppets in nice suits.

 

Grab popcorn and wait for the inevitable.

[marcusarelus]

3 minutes ago, HeyHeyHey said:

They won't do anything, because the higher ups do not want it.

 

Puppets in nice suits.

 

Grab popcorn and wait for the inevitable.

Since they could not do anything in 1997 what do you think they could do now?  There is nothing they can do.  

[FarFlungFalang]

16 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

Since they could not do anything in 1997 what do you think they could do now?  There is nothing they can do.  

They could try having an unstable political environment!Nuh tried and it didn't work,in fact it made the situation worse!

[madmen]

Whatever happened to the thousands of posts over the last 10 years saying never put even 1 baht in a thai bank or don't invest what you can't walk away from blah blah blah,. Well done to those in europe and Canada and OZ that got totally and completely hammered and with no end in sight....sad ????

[nong38]

1 hour ago, HeyHeyHey said:

They won't do anything, because the higher ups do not want it.

 

Puppets in nice suits.

 

Grab popcorn and wait for the inevitable.

Yes life is cheap for the rich when they travel.

[Yinn]

I not expert about this. Confused.

 

But many farang is always complain about uk, euro, Aussie, money is so “weak.”

so if thai baht so strong, must it be good, right? The import stuff now cheaper for me to buy it.

 

Dont want to be weak like that and complain.

[stigar]

I agree what he say.IF thaibath to strong it will have a negative impact in their economy.Anyway they shoul do it NOW.not just sit and wait and see what happends.In 97 they really lost it.They should see the signs much earlier.Chinese tourists going down,they go to cambodia and vietnam because it much cheaper there.In norway they selling more and more packets to vietnam.More and more families who used to go to thailand are going to vietnam because thailand gets to expencive compard to their neighbour counties.Everyday i see how vietnam promote themselfes in norway.CHEAP COUNTRY is the headline.

[BuckBee]

Well first thing they should do is lower interest rates, they should of lowered them last time instead of putting up.

For sure someone got interest in keep value high as this current trend in keeping high and doing nothing not best long term .

[observer90210]

3 hours ago, Yinn said:

I not expert about this. Confused.

 

But many farang is always complain about uk, euro, Aussie, money is so “weak.”

so if thai baht so strong, must it be good, right? The import stuff now cheaper for me to buy it.

 

Dont want to be weak like that and complain.

On the paper what you say makes sense.

 

But in reality, the greed will take over the merchants who will buy cheaper but not lower the retail price for you the consumer.

 

And on the other hand, the economy will suffer as exports will dwindle because too expensive for foreign countries, and thus less production, leading to less jobs, higher unemployment, with the emergence of a bubble of people in debt,  not being able to refund....reminds you of something the subprime storm and crash.....?

[nkg]

5 hours ago, Yinn said:

I not expert about this. Confused.

 

But many farang is always complain about uk, euro, Aussie, money is so “weak.”

so if thai baht so strong, must it be good, right? The import stuff now cheaper for me to buy it.

 

Dont want to be weak like that and complain.

 

Yes, a strong baht is good for buying the latest iPhone ????

 

But Thailand's farmers are very unhappy.

 

3 years ago, Thai rice was selling at $420/ton. It is also selling at $420/ton today.

 

3 years ago, $1 = 35 Thai baht. So when a Thai rice farmer went to sell 1 ton of rice, he got 14,700 baht. Today, $1 = 30.8 baht. Now the farmer will only get paid 12,936 baht, even though the price of rice in dollars hasn't changed.

 

Meanwhile, the Vietnamese dong fell 10% against the dollar in 3 years. The Vietnamese farmer will get 10% more money this year for his rice than 3 years ago. But maybe he won't have the latest iPhone ????

 

 

[daveAustin]

It'll all end in tears. 

I'm just thankful I got to enjoy Thailand-proper; the real value-for-money, highly cultured and less militiarised version not trying to be something it is not.

[NightSky]

It’s no secret that the western economies are stalling whilst the Asian economies are swiftly catching up. There’s bound to be some bumps in the road and even though I don’t like it, stronger Asian currencies are inevitable I would have thought that’s until the west begin to manufacture and export more stuff and create more value.

[Srikcir]

20 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

He said this statement could also generate a positive reaction in the stock market. 

 

20 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

says Passakorn Linmaneechote, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Securities.

About time to sell your own and client stocks?

[nauseus]

19 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Since they could not do anything in 1997 what do you think they could do now?  There is nothing they can do.  

1997 was completely different. 

[zydeco]

10 hours ago, NightSky said:

It’s no secret that the western economies are stalling whilst the Asian economies are swiftly catching up. There’s bound to be some bumps in the road and even though I don’t like it, stronger Asian currencies are inevitable I would have thought that’s until the west begin to manufacture and export more stuff and create more value.

Then why are other ASEAN countries devaluing their currencies?

[Scouse123]

Obviously exports will decline because the baht is too strong and buyers will look in the region for other countries and suppliers that are cheaper for commodities such as rice, fish, etc. That is just plain, simple economics.

 

Tourists in the short term will still come if they booked some time ago, but they will have a budget to spend usually, and this will reflect in them buying less whilst in Thailand.

 

Following on from that, they return home and tell people how expensive Thailand is becoming. The people who have not yet booked their holidays will then start shopping for cheaper alternatives and options and where they can get the most for their money. I remember the Spanish doing this to the British and every year the ' gouging ' continued until a trickle of people started visiting the Greek Islands. The trickle became an avalanche and it took the Spanish years and years to get the tourism back that it lost, and they had to substantially reduce prices.

 

Thailand's Generals think they can ' win them all ' with a large current account surplus and trying to pass nearly every expense on to the tourist and visitor. Unfortunately, economics do not work like that, and it all comes ' home to roost! '

[marcusarelus]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

1997 was completely different. 

The guy I was replying to was saying Thai rich people could control the baht.  They can't - they don't have enough money just like they didn't have enough money to defend the peg to the USD.  So, no.  Not completely different.  

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

The guy I was replying to was saying Thai rich people could control the baht.  They can't - they don't have enough money just like they didn't have enough money to defend the peg to the USD.  So, no.  Not completely different.  

No peg now. Managed float. Far greater foreign reserves. So it's completely different. I wish it wasn't.

[marcusarelus]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

No peg now. Managed float. Far greater foreign reserves. So it's completely different. I wish it wasn't.

They didn't have enough money then to manipulate the currency and they don't now.  Same situation.   If they did the baht would be down and you'd be happy.  

[marcusarelus]

22 minutes ago, Scouse123 said:

I remember the Spanish doing this to the British and every year the ' gouging ' continued until a trickle of people started visiting the Greek Islands. The trickle became an avalanche and it took the Spanish years and years to get the tourism back that it lost, and they had to substantially reduce prices.

How did the Spanish government get all of the shop and hotel and restaurant owners to lower prices for tourists?

[marcusarelus]

2 hours ago, zydeco said:

Then why are other ASEAN countries devaluing their currencies?

What ASEAN countries have devalued their currency?

[Sonhia]

What is and will be the value of your homeland money? I know mine, it is pathetically low.. 

 

The good old days are seemingly coming an end, what with the high cost of living in Thailand, which includes the high visa renewal costs. 

 

Could it be time to consider jumping ship by moving to other less expensive and more rewarding destinations , very close to Thailand, with far less red tape b and s?

[Scouse123]

4 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

How did the Spanish government get all of the shop and hotel and restaurant owners to lower prices for tourists?

 

I think major discussions took place between the central government and principalities along with input from the British tourism side as to why the tourists were no longer coming, bearing in mind the Brits were a very large percentage of Spain's tourist trade and buyers of 2nd homes and retirement properties. Market forces played the biggest hand in it all.

 

Whatever the result, prices went down. They had to because also what came along was the all inclusive deals whereby the tourists got hotel, food and drink all in together, so in essence, the tourist could just pay in the UK, take minimal cash and hang around the resorts all day, eating and drinking at the all inclusive resorts.

 

Yes, in the resorts they gave them the cheaper local beers and local spirits, but it all came down to costs in the end and affordability.

[NCC1701A]

12 minutes ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

Correct. A great time to be earning in Baht.

 

Bad time to be a retiree on a pension.

 

Total opposite of 25 years ago.

friend of mine brought 5 million baht into Thailand back when the baht was around 36 to the dollar.

that is his spending money for a few years, so he knows he is ok for years to come. 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, marcusarelus said:

They didn't have enough money then to manipulate the currency and they don't now.  Same situation.   If they did the baht would be down and you'd be happy.  

In 1997 the currency was attacked. With all the other problems in the world nobody is likely to do that now. But we live in hope.

[marcusarelus]

3 hours ago, Scouse123 said:

 

I think major discussions took place between the central government and principalities along with input from the British tourism side as to why the tourists were no longer coming, bearing in mind the Brits were a very large percentage of Spain's tourist trade and buyers of 2nd homes and retirement properties. Market forces played the biggest hand in it all.

 

Whatever the result, prices went down. They had to because also what came along was the all inclusive deals whereby the tourists got hotel, food and drink all in together, so in essence, the tourist could just pay in the UK, take minimal cash and hang around the resorts all day, eating and drinking at the all inclusive resorts.

 

Yes, in the resorts they gave them the cheaper local beers and local spirits, but it all came down to costs in the end and affordability.

I guess you could say that the Spanish government and/or local merchants had nothing to do with it as you have not provided any factual information to support that hypothesis.  

[marcusarelus]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

In 1997 the currency was attacked. With all the other problems in the world nobody is likely to do that now. But we live in hope.

It was just one Hungarian guy.  He also broke the Bank of England.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros

[marcusarelus]

3 hours ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

Correct. A great time to be earning in Baht.

 

Bad time to be a retiree on a pension.

 

Total opposite of 25 years ago.

Yup.  No way the rich Thai people could manipulate the baht.  They and most expats wish they could. 

 

The way I look at it the cash in a Thai bank is a hedge against the crash of Western currencies against the baht and the pension is a hedge against the depreciation of the baht against the Western currencies.  

 

When the baht gets too high to support exports - exports will go down and the economy will slow and the nutty ideas to drive away tourists will take effect and the baht will decrease in value.  I doubt the Brits will be able to afford to come back but the Americans and Chinese probably will.  

[Scouse123]

5 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

I guess you could say that the Spanish government and/or local merchants had nothing to do with it as you have not provided any factual information to support that hypothesis.  

 

I know what happened, I lived over there at the time.

 

I wasn't aware that everything stated here had to be backed up with links and historical facts of Spanish tourism back in the day.

 

I certainly have no intention of spending time on the computer to justify my comments to please you, because you choose not to accept them. I recall it happening at the time and that's it.