CMoldie Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 I think there is a real possibility of this worst case scenario. No matter who wins the Conservative party leadership, Johnson or Hunt, he will be unable to find a Brexit policy that the whole parliamentary party will be willing to support. This split will cause the government to lose a vote on a confidence issue. There will be a new general election which will, because of polarisation on the Brexit issue coupled with a widespread distaste for any party as a party of government, result in another hung parliament. This hung Parliament will still be unable to produce a government with a Brexit policy commanding sufficient support to pass. The EU will refuse to extend the 31st October deadline on the (quite reasonable) grounds that there is no prospect of any deal at all passing the UK Parliament. The UK will exit not only without a deal but also without a fully functional government. The pound will collapse to below 30 baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairynuff Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 5 hours ago, BritManToo said: More remainer nonsense, it's unlikely to fall more than any other western currency. Why keep playing this same old song? us white guys are all getting flushed down the currency toilet together. Don’t let facts get in the way huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Judum Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Sterling will bounce back after brexit its ARTIFICIALLY being chocked , its great for exports for UK and bad for foreign exchange , once the lion has broken free from its chains the currency along will the country will again be a force to be reckoned with , Britain is a market player that will demand more respect for country and currency (hope and pray) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaRoadrunner Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Boris negotiating a deal with the EU and the Brit Parliament. .... I'd say there is about a snowflake in Hells chance. To put the value of the £ in monetary terms we can appreciate.... I'd say the cost of a short time is about to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinnock Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Hackney35 said: Hahah this is a joke right? Scotland is a net receiver of public cash from Westminster, just cos it has some (dwindling) North Sea reserves doesn’t necessarily make it self sufficient financially. I’d happily see a hard border setup and let the dour Scots try to pay for their own benefit claimants and hospitals. Scottish debt in a fully independent Scotland would be junk bond rated by the agencies for sure. Yes - so Scotland may leave the UK and join the EU so Europe can subsidise them in the same way it props up Greece. Perhaps the savings from not supporting Scotland is one way Boris can deliver on his lies about extra funds for the NHS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 13 hours ago, phka said: Funny how destroying the British economy is thought to be patriotic Probably why the stupid working class voted brexit that's why they are working class and always will be while farage and his 900 thousand euros a year salary will prosper Better think that trashing Sterling is wrapped in the flag than wearing a dunce's cap standing in the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chelseafan Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 On 7/9/2019 at 3:02 PM, FritsSikkink said: Your biggest worry shouldn't be Brexit but if Scotland will be still in the UK. They have been sponsoring the UK for decades and when they will be independent, the pound will nose dive. If only the rest of the UK could have a referendum asking if we wanted Scotland to remain part of the UK ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1FinickyOne Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 10 hours ago, ResandePohm said: If you are importing your GBP to purchase with then your buying power is going to decline accordingly Yes, that is obvious, what I was referring to was the cost of goods on this end... inflation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamJar Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 On 7/9/2019 at 2:42 PM, Kwasaki said: IMHO brexit has some affects of course and there are few English traitors here in Thailand IMHO and those people that target brexit here only think exchange rate and never planned there future for seismic events. ???? Looking at expert financial future reviews the £ is gonna be at a 37 low and a 41 high for a long time to come unless Thailand takes a hit like it did in mid 2005. Personally I believe the Uk will prosper in time, maybe not in my time and believe the EU will collapse. Of course every country will prosper in time. Hoping for an EU collapse is not a positive thing. The point of the EU was to have a large trading bloc with the power to counter the big boys. So we can say that we don't want your tainted meat, for instance. You can cry as much as you like, but we ain't accepting it. On our own, do you think that the likes of Trump will accept that he don't take his crap? Look how easily they capitulated when he slated our Ambassador. A national humiliation. So do you think the weaklings and sycophants will stand up to the likes of him? So yes, being in the EU gives us the power to counter the tyrants. Unfortunately some unthinking know nothing morons think that we are going to prosper on our own. On the contrary, it gives us the opportunity to race to the bottom. Then there will be nothing to protect you, when the people whom you thought were your allies have you over a barrel. Be careful for what you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamJar Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Has anyone ever met a Brexiteer with the power of reason? I'm not joking. Not one of them can explain how we will prosper, without bluff and bluster. Ask Boris a question and he responds like a buffoon. No actual answer forthcoming. Just channelling Churchill...we shall fight them on the beaches.... Sorry, but that's not enough. Tell us the plan in so that we can get behind it. Why for instance, would being without the EU improve our lot? What are the economic policies that we will be able to introduce that we could not before? Is it that we want to be able to raise Interest rates wherein within EU rules we cannot? Please, some Brexiteer explain to me why Brexit is a good thing. What's the plan for if we leave? Why not tell us? Is it that no Brexiteer actually knows? The people in the know will get rich either way. We, the people are the ones who suffer. We are the ones who have to pick up the pieces no matter what happens. Do you imagine the US can give us a better deal than the EU? The USA too would want their pound of flesh. Or is this all about not having freedom of movement from the EU? Or that you want the break up of the EU, so that we can trade individually with European countries. What's the goal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BritManToo Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 1 minute ago, JamJar said: Has anyone ever met a Brexiteer with the power of reason? I'm not joking. Not one of them can explain how we will prosper, without bluff and bluster. Ask Boris a question and he responds like a buffoon. No actual answer forthcoming. Just channelling Churchill...we shall fight them on the beaches.... That's because none of the MPs want to leave but can't work out how to hold their seats if they say it out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyyy Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 USD seems to be rebounding against the Baht now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BritManToo Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, JamJar said: Do you imagine the US can give us a better deal than the EU? The USA too would want their pound of flesh. What's the goal? Quite frankly, I'd rather the UK was a state of the USA than a state of the EU. The EU is a liberal socialist state on it's way to becoming a bankrupt caliphate. The goal of Brexit is to stop the UK being part of the EU's multicultural Muslim dominated superstate. Although personally I'm OK with Islam and it's policies towards women. I could grow a beard, if needs must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VocalNeal Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 The exchange rate will be what it is. No point worrying or pontificating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamJar Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 1 hour ago, BritManToo said: Quite frankly, I'd rather the UK was a state of the USA than a state of the EU. The EU is a liberal socialist state on it's way to becoming a bankrupt caliphate. The goal of Brexit is to stop the UK being part of the EU's multicultural Muslim dominated superstate. Although personally I'm OK with Islam and it's policies towards women. I could grow a beard, if needs must. At least you've stated your opinion. Even though it appears somewhat tongue-in-cheek. Since you would rather be a state of the USA, would you be happy to do away with the NHS, in so that everyone had to purchase insurance policies to pay for exorbitantly expensive treatment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BritManToo Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 1 minute ago, JamJar said: At least you've stated your opinion. Even though it appears somewhat tongue-in-cheek. Since you would rather be a state of the USA, would you be happy to do away with the NHS, in so that everyone had to purchase insurance policies to pay for exorbitantly expensive treatment? As an expat it's already gone for me (officially), it'll be gone for everyone else pretty soon if the Conservatives have their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petedk Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 14 hours ago, allanos said: As Kenk24 says, no one can predict the future. This applies to the so-called experts as much as the OP. If the experts knew what was coming down the turnpike, Lehman Brothers would still be with us and the 2008 financial crisis would perhaps have been still-born. One or two people called it correctly, and made billions of dollars; the majority of us paid the penalty, in some shape or form. The OP claims to have lost a lot of money in Thailand, but doesn't quantify it or put what it means into some decent context (i have not the slightest insight regarding currencies and money affairs, i have lost a lot of money in LOS due to being " thick " ). Having no knowledge, or even being dumb, is no excuse. There is a fortune of information on the internet, easily accesssable in order to "wise up". "Lots" of money is relative. Where does GBPTHB come into the picture? Did he lose lots of money on the ponies, or with a bargirl in Soi 6? If he lost the money owing to the onset of the poor GBPTHB exchange rate, and it directly affected his cash or currency assets, he is down maybe 25%. If one has 20m Baht tucked away under the mattress, the loss equates to 5m Baht. That is hefty. If it was 20 000 Baht under the mattress, his notional loss is 5 000 Baht, or around 160 pounds perhaps. It is not serious money. Best thing we can all do is have some hedges in place. An insurance policy or two. If you are long the markets, take out some put options and cash-in when the market crashes. Buy gold and silver, either physically or as etf's, and sit on it as a store of value, should the economy take a hit. Buy BTC perhaps; it was over $ 12000.00 this morning, and has taken on a bullish tone in the recent short term and may be poised for a breakout. One thing I am convinced about is that if one has a decent hedging strategy going forward, you can sleep more soundly at night. As you say no-one knows the future. Last night I dreamt of a white lizard climbing the mountain, I am sure it was telling me that the pound will go up. On the other hand the lizard was in a Thai mountain..... maybe the baht will go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henryford Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 GBP Pound will be back upto 70 on 1.11.19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brunolem Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 3 hours ago, JamJar said: Has anyone ever met a Brexiteer with the power of reason? Not one of them can explain how we will prosper, without bluff and bluster. The answer in one word: Switzerland A country can very well prosper outside the EU. As a matter of fact, it is the poor countries, from Romania to Turkey, that are waiting in line to join the EU, while the rich ones prefer to stay on the sides, watching the edification of this moder tower of Babel, that will collapse like its predecessor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hargri Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 49 minutes ago, Brunolem said: The answer in one word: Switzerland A country can very well prosper outside the EU. As a matter of fact, it is the poor countries, from Romania to Turkey, that are waiting in line to join the EU, while the rich ones prefer to stay on the sides, watching the edification of this moder tower of Babel, that will collapse like its predecessor... Romania have been a member of EU since 2007. And the rest of fort post is bullshit too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perhaps2more Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 5 hours ago, JamJar said: Please, some Brexiteer explain to me why Brexit is a good thing. What's the plan for if we leave? Why not tell us? Is it that no Brexiteer actually knows? There are 195 countries in the world today. There are only 28 countries in the EU. These are the 10 richest countries in the world Only one country, Ireland, is in the EU. 1. Qatar • GNI per capita: $128,060 2. Singapore • GNI per capita: $90,570 3. Brunei Darussalam • GNI per capita: $83,760 4. Kuwait • GNI per capita: $83,310 5. United Arab Emirates • GNI per capita: $74,410 6. Luxembourg • GNI per capita: $72,690 7. Switzerland • GNI per capita: $65,610 8. Hong Kong SAR • GNI per capita: $64,100 9. Norway • GNI per capita: $63,980 10. Ireland • GNI per capita: $61,910 Top 10 Economies in the World Only 4 EU countries in the list and one of them is the UK. 1. The United States GDP US Nominal GDP: $19.39 trillion US GDP (PPP): $19.39 trillion 2. China GDP China Nominal GDP: $12.01 trillion China GDP (PPP): $23.15 trillion 3. Japan GDP Japan Nominal GDP: $4.87 trillion Japan GDP (PPP): $5.42 trillion 4. Germany GDP Germany Nominal GDP: $3.68 trillion Germany GDP (PPP): $4.17 trillion 5. United Kingdom GDP UK Nominal GDP: $2.62 trillion UK GDP (PPP): $2.91 trillion 6. India GDP India Nominal GDP: $2.61 trillion India GDP (PPP): $9.45 trillion 7. France GDP France Nominal GDP: $2.58 trillion France GDP (PPP): $2.83 trillion 8. Brazil GDP Brazil Nominal GDP: $2.05 trillion Brazil GDP (PPP): $3.24 trillion 9. Italy GDP Italy Nominal GDP: $1.93 trillion Italy GDP (PPP): $2.31 trillion 10. Canada GDP Canada Nominal GDP: $1.65 trillion Canada GDP (PPP): $1.76 trillion Greece is bankrupt, Spain has extremely high unemployment, Italian economy is in big trouble. Poor European countries are in the EU to gain labour markets and to get free hand-outs. Why is it OK for people to move around with no job and claim money from the host country (local people tax money)? Shouldn't it be paid by the country of origin or the EU central fun? The richest and the top economies do not have to be in the EU to prosper. UK is unique because it has the common wealth countries as the allies. The Commonwealth comprises 53 countries, across all continents. The members have a combined population of 2.4 billion people, almost a third of the world population, of whom 1.26 billion live in India, 220 million live in Pakistan and 94% live in Asia and Africa combined. UK buy from the EU more than selling to them. The UK is a net contributor to the EU budget. In other words, it contributes more to the EU budget than it receives back from it. Top Contributing Countries. Germany is the largest contributor to the EU, accounting for 21.11% of the budget. France (16.44%), Italy (13.64%), the United Kingdom (13.05%), and Spain (8.51%) are the other top contributors. These five countries accounted for approximately 70% of the 2016 EU budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Not only do you need to consider the imponderable of Brexit (deal or no deal), you also need to look at how Thailand is faring financially. It is beginning to look like a devaluation of the baht might be on the cards as the current strength is hurting it's exports quite a lot, also the tourists industry has also taken a hit.....11.5% down this year. Another hit on the Thai economy is the USA/China debacle, which initially Thailand said it would not have a detrimental affect on the economy.......WRONG! The Central Bank of Thailand is also very concerned about the high level of individual debt and non-performing loans. So much so, they have just imposed higher payments for mortgages, not to mention the already surplus of houses for sale. So, while at the moment (a phrase worth remembering) all things are rosy in the garden, there are however major destabalising factors just around the corner, which just might, if they come together, jump up and bite Thailand on their financial butt!For GBPTHB the market considers the immediate outlook uglier for Sterling. No-deal Brexit is the trump card for now. Wishing for the baht to be devalued has been sitting there for years on every bar stool in town. Hasn't exactly been a winning play so far, but hey! I see clouds!Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 The answer in one word: Switzerland A country can very well prosper outside the EU. As a matter of fact, it is the poor countries, from Romania to Turkey, that are waiting in line to join the EU, while the rich ones prefer to stay on the sides, watching the edification of this moder tower of Babel, that will collapse like its predecessor... Cuckoo clocks.Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheungWan Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 As you say no-one knows the future. Last night I dreamt of a white lizard climbing the mountain, I am sure it was telling me that the pound will go up. On the other hand the lizard was in a Thai mountain..... maybe the baht will go up.The future is very unlikely a 50:50 upside/downside. Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwasaki Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 17 hours ago, Fairynuff said: You can’t beat a good bit of stand up comedy UK after brexit...GBP v THAI BAHT So whats your contribution to the thread so I can have a laugh. ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brunolem Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 2 hours ago, hargri said: Romania have been a member of EU since 2007. And the rest of fort post is bullshit too! See Perhaps2more post above and bring facts to the debate, rather than one (dirty) word statements... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brunolem Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 41 minutes ago, SheungWan said: Cuckoo clocks. Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app Contradictory facts please, rather than meaningless short statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwasaki Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 7 hours ago, JamJar said: Of course every country will prosper in time. Hoping for an EU collapse is not a positive thing. The point of the EU was to have a large trading bloc with the power to counter the big boys. So we can say that we don't want your tainted meat, for instance. You can cry as much as you like, but we ain't accepting it. On our own, do you think that the likes of Trump will accept that he don't take his crap? Look how easily they capitulated when he slated our Ambassador. A national humiliation. So do you think the weaklings and sycophants will stand up to the likes of him? So yes, being in the EU gives us the power to counter the tyrants. Unfortunately some unthinking know nothing morons think that we are going to prosper on our own. On the contrary, it gives us the opportunity to race to the bottom. Then there will be nothing to protect you, when the people whom you thought were your allies have you over a barrel. Be careful for what you wish. You make a very fair point, I believe you can still trade as a independent country. Trump is Trump he will use helping the UK in a good way to have a go at the EU, for how long is anyone's guess. As for the US Ambassador how did his comments get leaked is my question. Boris will use Trump the way Trump uses people and counter any tyrants. I think the EU has countries over a barrel and dictates to them how they going to do things e.g. Greece. I'm one of the unthinking morons I guess with EU supporters ???? I wouldn't necessarily label myself a Brexiteer because I never wanted UK to join EU in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caine Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 On 7/9/2019 at 3:02 PM, FritsSikkink said: Your biggest worry shouldn't be Brexit but if Scotland will be still in the UK. They have been sponsoring the UK for decades and when they will be independent, the pound will nose dive. What a load of crap, a question was ask several years ago when the U.K. was at war on two fronts Afghanistan and Iraq. The question was what was the biggest drain on the U.K. economy. Most people answered the conflicts wrong, the next answer was the benefits system wrong again, the correct answer was Scotland the sooner they piss off the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandyf Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 6 hours ago, Brunolem said: The answer in one word: Switzerland A country can very well prosper outside the EU. As a matter of fact, it is the poor countries, from Romania to Turkey, that are waiting in line to join the EU, while the rich ones prefer to stay on the sides, watching the edification of this moder tower of Babel, that will collapse like its predecessor... You really ought to think before you post. Switzerland is part of the single market and party to the freedom of movement agreement. Many remainers would see a Swiss style agreement quite acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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