UK after brexit...GBP v THAI BAHT

[DaRoadrunner]

Could it be that the EU are terrified Britain might be successful in going it alone, causing other member countries to follow and the whole EU to fall apart as a result?

 

Britain might just pull it off, except we have Boris at the helm, about to go down like the Titanic.

[Brunolem]

15 hours ago, sandyf said:

Are we to take it that financial forecasts in respect of the EU are to be taken seriously and those in respect of the UK just dismissed as project fear.

Some more good news... 

 

 

[sandyf]

13 hours ago, nauseus said:

Project Fear is alive, ongoing and can't be dismissed. But remainers also avoid and deny the real prospect of a Euro crisis and consequent EU crisis. 

Where do "real prospects" originate, forecasts, but of course only forecasts in respect of the EU are considered valid.

 

What's the difference between an EU crisis and a UK crisis?, The UK crisis started 3 years ago and gaining momentum.

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Some more good news... 

 

 

Don't you mean some more project fear.

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

Where do "real prospects" originate, forecasts, but of course only forecasts in respect of the EU are considered valid.

 

What's the difference between an EU crisis and a UK crisis?, The UK crisis started 3 years ago and gaining momentum.

The real prospect of a crisis comes from the enormous amount of debt that exists within the Euro zone, combined with high unemployment, zero or -ve interest rates, continuing QE and it looks like more of the same. 

 

I assume that your UK crisis refers to Brexit, which is a newer event and only imagined as a crisis if you are a remainer. If we can leave before the Euro zone financial crisis occurs, then Brexit might finally seem like a good idea to some of you. 

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

Don't you mean some more project fear.

Depends if you consider that Bloomberg and The Sun are in the same league... 

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

Where do "real prospects" originate, forecasts, but of course only forecasts in respect of the EU are considered valid.

 

What's the difference between an EU crisis and a UK crisis?, The UK crisis started 3 years ago and gaining momentum.

Forecasts? 

 

What about facts? 

 

The EU has been going from crisis to crisis. 

 

The euro was doomed to fail since inception... there have been many books written on the subject. 

 

A number of countries, a.k.a. the Club Med members, are suffering a lot because of the euro. .. Greece is basically dead, and Italy is not going well. 

 

The EU big banks are rotten to the core, with Deutsche Bank as their proud leader. 

 

Thus the ECB has no choice but to keep negative interest rates, and QE... forever! 

 

This is the equivalent of a person being kept alive under respiratory assistance, with constant injections of strong medicine. 

 

Such a person may survive for quite a while, but she is certainly not going anywhere... ever! 

 

The difference between a UK and an EU crisis is that the former would be limited in scope, while the latter would have worldwide repercussions... 

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

 

I assume that your UK crisis refers to Brexit,  

You assume wrong, but no surprise there.

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Forecasts? 

 

What about facts? 

 

Quite, facts are not facts till they have taken place.

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

You assume wrong, but no surprise there.

OK then. What UK crisis?

[nauseus]

9 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Quite, facts are not facts till they have taken place.

Hilarious.

[sandyf]

7 minutes ago, nauseus said:

OK then. What UK crisis?

Here's one,how many more do you want

 

He added: "Patients will find it staggering that this summer A&E performance so far has actually been worse than it was in the run up to Christmas and those stranded on trolleys in overcrowded hospitals is up 376% compared to last June.

https://news.sky.com/story/a-e-waiting-times-in-england-record-worst-june-on-record-11760910

 

As usual in line with UK government thinking a review will be carried out. By the time the review is completed, original estimates will have doubled and the initiative will be cut back or scrapped.

[Brunolem]

54 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Quite, facts are not facts till they have taken place.

And the remainder of my post above is full of facts... but if you quote only 3 words, you obviously miss the bulk of it. 

 

One can only wonder how it has escaped to you that the EU is in a state of perpetual crisis... 

 

When it's not the Club Med members, it's the PIIGS or the Visegrad group, or the ECB and Draghi, or the Italian banks... the EU is always on the brink... it is not a fortress (except for the technocrats in Brussels' ivory tower) but rather a house of cards that needs to be supported constantly, at huge cost... 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

Here's one,how many more do you want

 

He added: "Patients will find it staggering that this summer A&E performance so far has actually been worse than it was in the run up to Christmas and those stranded on trolleys in overcrowded hospitals is up 376% compared to last June.

https://news.sky.com/story/a-e-waiting-times-in-england-record-worst-june-on-record-11760910

 

As usual in line with UK government thinking a review will be carried out. By the time the review is completed, original estimates will have doubled and the initiative will be cut back or scrapped.

This topic is the pound, or at least forex or money. How was I supposed to know you'd drag the NHS out again? Objection overruled.

[SheungWan]

The Brexit could not be delivered because many politicians do not accept the democratic referendum.
They have been trying everything they can to thwart the process because they think, like you, that UK will not survive in the world and we desperately need to stay in the EU to survive. That is really sad.
Many of them lost their job because people did not put them there to do what they like but to carry out people's wishes.
What make you think we have no plan at all? Are we that stupid really?
UK is number 5 in the world best economy. Have some faith !
And Boris Johnson is not United Kingdom. He is one of the UK politicians.

"Are we that stupid really?". Stupid is that stupid does. And drags down Sterling like a snail trail.

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[Tomahawk21]

On 7/9/2019 at 8:39 PM, JamJar said:

How did you lose money? By not transferring money when the exchange rate was more favourable?

 

The consensus is that the Bank of England may actually cut the Interest rate in the event of a 'no deal'. So perhaps a further drop in the value of the £.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/18ee4744-0c4e-11e9-acdc-4d9976f1533b

How did you lose money? By not transferring money when the exchange rate was more favourable?

 

nan probably gave it away to some bird who he thought loved him.

[Perhaps2more]

11 hours ago, SheungWan said:

"Are we that stupid really?". Stupid is that stupid does. And drags down Sterling like a snail trail.

There are many factors which cause currency depreciation, but you noticed only one of them.

Guess what! At the moment, many other currencies are having the same problem and they are not Brexiting, are they? 

Quote, "There have been outsized declines in countries like Venezuela (down 99 percent), Argentina (53 percent) and Turkey (38 percent). However, Brazil is down 20 percent, Russia 15 percent, India 11 percent, Sweden 10 percent, and the Philippines 8 percent. Big economies like China are experiencing a 5 percent currency value decline while the Euro is off by 3 percent." Unquote (cnbc.com 20/09/2018)

[SheungWan]

How did you lose money? By not transferring money when the exchange rate was more favourable?
 
nan probably gave it away to some bird who he thought loved him.

A pointless deflection.

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[SheungWan]

There are many factors which cause currency depreciation, but you noticed only one of them.
Guess what! At the moment, many other currencies are having the same problem and they are not Brexiting, are they? 
Quote, "There have been outsized declines in countries like Venezuela (down 99 percent), Argentina (53 percent) and Turkey (38 percent). However, Brazil is down 20 percent, Russia 15 percent, India 11 percent, Sweden 10 percent, and the Philippines 8 percent. Big economies like China are experiencing a 5 percent currency value decline while the Euro is off by 3 percent." Unquote (cnbc.com 20/09/2018)

Many currencies follow their own road to hell and for Sterling that happens to be Brexit right now and more specifically no-deal Brexit. Weighting other factors always valid but not if the intention is to kick the negative impact of Brexit into the long grass. And here we have another attempt to do so.

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[SheungWan]

Switzerland was only used as an example to show that it is possible to thrive out of the EU. 
 
The UK's economy being very different from that of Switzerland, the country will have to find its own way. 
 
Anyway, the UK will be safer outside since almost nobody (in the financial world) believes that the euro will hold for long, and once the euro gone, it will be complete chaos in the EU... better be far away when this happens... 

That would be the financial world of the Conspiracy Theory websites presumably.

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[nauseus]

2 hours ago, SheungWan said:

That would be the financial world of the Conspiracy Theory websites presumably.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

I have seen several that even you might find not so conspiratorial.

 

Just found one from one of the chief (conspiratorial) engineers of the Euro: Ottmar Issing.

 

Crunch Q & A from this interview:

 

"How long can everything keep going before something gives? The politicians do not want to take action – not dismissing some of the austerity in countries where International Monetary Fund involvement has taken place. Nobody with a surplus really wants to share fiscal burdens. So what happens next?

 

Realistically, it will be a case of muddling through, struggling from one crisis to the next one. It is difficult to forecast how long this will continue for, but it cannot go on endlessly. Governments will pile up more debt – and then one day, the house of cards will collapse".

 

https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/economics/2473842/otmar-issing-on-why-the-euro-house-of-cards-is-set-to-collapse

 

 

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, SheungWan said:

That would be the financial world of the Conspiracy Theory websites presumably.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

There is a theory, but no need for a conspiracy... 

 

Many people, in the mainstream as well as the alternative financial world, think that the euro is doomed. 

 

Actually, a few facts just confirm the theory, such as the ECB's policy. 

 

How long would the euro stand if the interest rates were set by the market (like they were before the famous "whatever it takes") , and if the ECB was not buying all the crappy Italian, Greek and other bonds? 

 

And how long can this policy last? 

 

This thread is about the declining GBP, but what about the euro which, in about 12 years, has gone from 52 to 34 against the baht? 

[Perhaps2more]

3 hours ago, SheungWan said:

Many currencies follow their own road to hell and for Sterling that happens to be Brexit right now and more specifically no-deal Brexit. Weighting other factors always valid but not if the intention is to kick the negative impact of Brexit into the long grass. And here we have another attempt to do so.

Never in the long history of all currencies that only one factor can cause currency depreciation. It is always a combination of things, pro and con, all are factored in before getting the outcome. A country's own economy in relation to other countries, its government's behaviour, gold price, festive time of the year, an important person says something, etc. 

Brexit will end, one way or the other. What then? Will the £ go back to the value it was?

If there were no Brexit would the £ remain fixed at a certain price?  Certainly NOT.

The £ was about 30-32 bahts at one point in the past when the word Brexit didn't even exist then.

 

Of course, some ignorant remainers quickly jump the gun using their tunnel vision obviously.

 

 

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, nauseus said:

I have seen several that even you might find not so conspiratorial.

 

Just found one from one of the chief (conspiratorial) engineers of the Euro: Ottmar Issing.

 

Crunch Q & A from this interview:

 

"How long can everything keep going before something gives? The politicians do not want to take action – not dismissing some of the austerity in countries where International Monetary Fund involvement has taken place. Nobody with a surplus really wants to share fiscal burdens. So what happens next?

 

Realistically, it will be a case of muddling through, struggling from one crisis to the next one. It is difficult to forecast how long this will continue for, but it cannot go on endlessly. Governments will pile up more debt – and then one day, the house of cards will collapse".

 

https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/economics/2473842/otmar-issing-on-why-the-euro-house-of-cards-is-set-to-collapse

 

 

Still waiting for the EU House of Cards to collapse while Sterling does its own slide in anticipation of a no-deal Brexit.

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, Perhaps2more said:

Never in the long history of all currencies that only one factor can cause currency depreciation. It is always a combination of things, pro and con, all are factored in before getting the outcome. A country's own economy in relation to other countries, its government's behaviour, gold price, festive time of the year, an important person says something, etc. 

Brexit will end, one way or the other. What then? Will the £ go back to the value it was?

If there were no Brexit would the £ remain fixed at a certain price?  Certainly NOT.

The £ was about 30-32 bahts at one point in the past when the word Brexit didn't even exist then.

Of course, some ignorant remainers quickly jump the gun using their tunnel vision obviously.

A bit of this and a bit of that and meanwhile Sterling slip-sliding to the tune of Hard Brexit.

[SheungWan]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

There is a theory, but no need for a conspiracy... 

Many people, in the mainstream as well as the alternative financial world, think that the euro is doomed. 

Actually, a few facts just confirm the theory, such as the ECB's policy. 

How long would the euro stand if the interest rates were set by the market (like they were before the famous "whatever it takes") , and if the ECB was not buying all the crappy Italian, Greek and other bonds? 

And how long can this policy last? 

This thread is about the declining GBP, but what about the euro which, in about 12 years, has gone from 52 to 34 against the baht? 

Yes, this  thread is about Sterling and how it is being and will be further clobbered by no-deal Brexit, but do deflect to the Brexiteer Euro bugbear. Some effort by Hard Brexiteers to console themselves.

[Perhaps2more]

19 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

A bit of this and a bit of that and meanwhile Sterling slip-sliding to the tune of Hard Brexit.

You wish.

[nauseus]

27 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Still waiting for the EU House of Cards to collapse while Sterling does its own slide in anticipation of a no-deal Brexit.

No and not the point, which is that the Euro and EU could easily implode - Brexit or not.

[Perhaps2more]

49 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Still waiting for the EU House of Cards to collapse while Sterling does its own slide in anticipation of a no-deal Brexit.

Italy is about to fall over and hard Brexit will hasten it, Spain is more than ready to follow on top of old useless fat Greece while Germany will try to cover the cost and extra cost after the UK has left, more to the point that the German government will have no support left from the neo-nazi and the rest of the Germans. The French government will do the usual sidestep and do what is best for themselves. Marine Le Pen will take over from the school boy Macron. 

And you think Brexit is bad for the UK.  It will rearrange the EU. That is why they are making it very difficult for the UK to get out.

The only good thing about the EU is that they hide their fears and worries well enough while huddle up together going down the the toilet hole.

[beautifulthailand99]

On 7/11/2019 at 4:50 AM, Brunolem said:

The answer in one word: Switzerland

 

A country can very well prosper outside the EU. 

 

As a matter of fact, it is the poor countries, from Romania to Turkey, that are waiting in line to join the EU, while the rich ones prefer to stay on the sides, watching the edification of this moder tower of Babel, that will collapse like its predecessor... 

Here you go feast your eyes on the EU-Switzerland agreement - would bring nightmares to any patriotic Brexiteer. You need to get your Ian Paisley voice chant finessed and shout THERE SHALL BE NO DEAL with the EU-SSR....

Seriously any 'Remainer' would be more than happy with a Switzerland deal. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland–European_Union_relations