Strong Bhat Makes my 800,000 for my extension look a good investment

[marcusarelus]

10 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

My 800k in a Thai bank makes 1.5% interest if I'm lucky, less tax. The appreciation of the baht is only realized when one cashes in and leaves Thailand for good. The 800K for retirement extension is effectively dead money that Thai banks gleefully accept and then lend out at 6-7% to Thais.

I do make a lot more money from my investments in Australia - a minimum of 5.2% interest on first mortgage lending, averaging 7.5% on peer-to-peer lending. About 7% grossed up yield on blue chip stocks such as the banks.

If you consider that nonsense, I'd like you to explain how my facts are wrong.

You are not restricted to putting in 800k.  You can put in 3 million baht and if you had a couple of years ago you could take as much as you wanted out in Aus dollars and have a lot more than if you had left it in an Aussie bank. 

 

The reason Australia is paying more interest is because their currency is tanking.  If you keep your money in Aussie dollars you are betting they will rise in value which is not in the cards.  

 

Everything is denominated in the value of the dominant world currency.  You may call it inflation or whatever but it the one reason your prices go up and down.  

 

To recap and this thread is about banks and not all possible investments.  If you live in Thailand and have put money in a Thai bank in the past you have done better than if you had put money in an Aussie bank.  You can keep it in or take it out - up to you.  It is worth what it is worth.  Go back home and get a 2 year O-A visa and take as much as you want out of your Thai bank account and go home in another 2 years and get another O-A visa. 

[Leaver]

31 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

That would be true in our case if I didn't love, respect and trust my wife, as she does me, saying nothing about our loving and respectful daughter. To us its always been 'our' money, 'our' assets, 'our' life, well for the past 22 years at least. 

My post wasn't taking into account "emotions" aka "love." 

 

My post was simply about Thai law, and that simply is, foreigners can not own land here, no matter which way you spin it.

 

I can see the day when they truly do crackdown on the Thai nominee system, and then watch sh*t hit the fan here. 

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, marcusarelus said:

You are not restricted to putting in 800k.  You can put in 3 million baht and if you had a couple of years ago you could take as much as you wanted out in Aus dollars and have a lot more than if you had left it in an Aussie bank. 

 

The reason Australia is paying more interest is because their currency is tanking.  If you keep your money in Aussie dollars you are betting they will rise in value which is not in the cards.  

 

Everything is denominated in the value of the dominant world currency.  You may call it inflation or whatever but it the one reason your prices go up and down.  

 

To recap and this thread is about banks and not all possible investments.  If you live in Thailand and have put money in a Thai bank in the past you have done better than if you had put money in an Aussie bank.  You can keep it in or take it out - up to you.  It is worth what it is worth.  Go back home and get a 2 year O-A visa and take as much as you want out of your Thai bank account and go home in another 2 years and get another O-A visa. 

The Thai economy is struggling.  Thai household debt is at a record high.  The Thai baht is being kept artificially strong, which can't last forever.

 

If on a retirement visa, you can only use 400k of your 800k for 5 months. 

 

It must be noted that you can not use 400k of that 800k perpetually, if you want next year's extension. 

 

I agree, O-A's will be where many turn to, and I predict they will also come under notice with new requirements added. 

Edited July 13, 2019 by Leaver

[Airalee]

2 hours ago, cmsally said:

 

 

I assume the delay is coming into action, as per the photo above. Many people have been getting a leaflet through the mail in the last few days.

Things could get interesting.  I wonder if there will be a run on the banks (to whatever extent) by the wealthy Thais and foreigners living here...and if so...where will they park their money?  Hmm.

 

Thanks for the update.

[DrJack54]

So 7 pages. How many posts specifically to do with Thai visas etc. Its slid in on back of money in bank requirements, which has hardly been remotely mentioned. Its a finance chat. Poor one at that.

Edited July 13, 2019 by DrJack54

[Fairynuff]

On 7/13/2019 at 12:36 AM, Chazar said:

Bought  all  my  properties at 72????

72 is quite old to be buying property ????????????

[Lacessit]

9 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

You are not restricted to putting in 800k.  You can put in 3 million baht and if you had a couple of years ago you could take as much as you wanted out in Aus dollars and have a lot more than if you had left it in an Aussie bank. 

 

The reason Australia is paying more interest is because their currency is tanking.  If you keep your money in Aussie dollars you are betting they will rise in value which is not in the cards.  

 

Everything is denominated in the value of the dominant world currency.  You may call it inflation or whatever but it the one reason your prices go up and down.  

 

To recap and this thread is about banks and not all possible investments.  If you live in Thailand and have put money in a Thai bank in the past you have done better than if you had put money in an Aussie bank.  You can keep it in or take it out - up to you.  It is worth what it is worth.  Go back home and get a 2 year O-A visa and take as much as you want out of your Thai bank account and go home in another 2 years and get another O-A visa. 

There's an old Aussie saying - if my auntie had balls, she'd be my uncle. If I had bought put options before the GFC, I'd be a multi-millionaire. If if if.

FYI, Australian banks do not pay interest much better than a Thai bank. About 2% against 1.5%.

I am not betting the Australian dollar will rise in value. I am generating income from my investments in Australia, which has a stable political system. If you are betting the baht will rise in value , and are happy with the Thai political system, that's your choice. My choice is to keep the majority of my assets in Australia, where they are safe.

The O-A visa is not an option. The mandatory health insurance is unavailable to me due to age and pre-existing conditions. Not everyone fits the Thai Procrustean bed.

[madmen]

10 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

You are not restricted to putting in 800k.  You can put in 3 million baht and if you had a couple of years ago you could take as much as you wanted out in Aus dollars and have a lot more than if you had left it in an Aussie bank. 

 

The reason Australia is paying more interest is because their currency is tanking.  If you keep your money in Aussie dollars you are betting they will rise in value which is not in the cards.  

 

Everything is denominated in the value of the dominant world currency.  You may call it inflation or whatever but it the one reason your prices go up and down.  

 

To recap and this thread is about banks and not all possible investments.  If you live in Thailand and have put money in a Thai bank in the past you have done better than if you had put money in an Aussie bank.  You can keep it in or take it out - up to you.  It is worth what it is worth.  Go back home and get a 2 year O-A visa and take as much as you want out of your Thai bank account and go home in another 2 years and get another O-A visa. 

Good post. The weak oz dollar is good to go down to historical lows of 15 baht and it will test it IMO and could and probably will break through , charts don't lie but people will still leave their money in safe OZ , unbelievable!

[marcusarelus]

9 hours ago, Leaver said:

The Thai economy is struggling.  Thai household debt is at a record high.  The Thai baht is being kept artificially strong, which can't last forever.irements added. 

The Thai economy is not struggling.  Household debt as a percent of GDP is not at an all time high.  Thai baht is a free floating currency and can't be kept artificially strong. To do that you would have to control the pound and US dollar.  Do you really think Thailand can control the pound and dollar?

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp-growth

[marcusarelus]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

There's an old Aussie saying - if my auntie had balls, she'd be my uncle. If I had bought put options before the GFC, I'd be a multi-millionaire. If if if.

FYI, Australian banks do not pay interest much better than a Thai bank. About 2% against 1.5%.

I am not betting the Australian dollar will rise in value. I am generating income from my investments in Australia, which has a stable political system. If you are betting the baht will rise in value , and are happy with the Thai political system, that's your choice. My choice is to keep the majority of my assets in Australia, where they are safe.

The O-A visa is not an option. The mandatory health insurance is unavailable to me due to age and pre-existing conditions. Not everyone fits the Thai Procrustean bed.

There is no mandatory health insurance for O-A visa.  If you are happy with the Aussie dollar that's your choice but since 2005 I've kept my money in Thai banks and it has done better than when I kept it in ANZ.  I believe the Chinese own ANZ anyway do you trust China?  HSBC largest shareholder in ANZ.  Maybe check who owns the largest 6 Aussie banks.  

Edited July 14, 2019 by marcusarelus

[Pumpuynarak]

12 hours ago, Lacessit said:

The appreciation of the baht is only realized when one cashes in and leaves Thailand for good. The 800K for retirement extension is effectively dead money

BINGO, at last we have reality, your money is worthless to you all the time its in a Thai bank covering your retirement extension despite how much it might be worth on repatriation unless of course you're intending to return home.

[Pumpuynarak]

12 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

You can keep it in or take it out - up to you.  It is worth what it is worth.  Go back home and get a 2 year O-A visa and take as much as you want out of your Thai bank account and go home in another 2 years and get another O-A visa. 

That is the only way its worth anything to you, will TI allow you to do this assuming of course that you have a home to go to in your home country ?

[Lacessit]

9 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

There is no mandatory health insurance for O-A visa. 

News to me, all those threads starting in May with a wailing and gnashing of teeth over mandatory health insurance for anyone over 50 were wrong IYO? Sure you are not confusing the O-A with a retirement extension?

[ubonjoe]

16 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

News to me, all those threads starting in May with a wailing and gnashing of teeth over mandatory health insurance for anyone over 50 were wrong IYO? Sure you are not confusing the O-A with a retirement extension?

It has not gone into effect yet since it has not been formalized or formally approved. The first approval was only for the proposal for it.

[onera1961]

11 hours ago, Lacessit said:

If you are betting the baht will rise in value , and are happy with the Thai political system, that's your choice. My choice is to keep the majority of my assets in Australia, where they are safe.

That is the exactly same reason I prefer to keep my money invested in the US. I can blindly pick some conservative bond mutual funds and generate 6% in the most stable country of the world. For the last one year, I'm vacillating between bringing a few million bahts to park in  a Thai bank and keep my investment in the USA, though in the process I am losing in currency conversion. My greatest fear is the legal system of Thailand.

[meand]

THE guy put 800k baht in the bank, and the 800k is worth more now. 

 

I am not sure how people are reaching any other conclusion. 

[marcusarelus]

10 hours ago, onera1961 said:

That is the exactly same reason I prefer to keep my money invested in the US. I can blindly pick some conservative bond mutual funds and generate 6% in the most stable country of the world. For the last one year, I'm vacillating between bringing a few million bahts to park in  a Thai bank and keep my investment in the USA, though in the process I am losing in currency conversion. My greatest fear is the legal system of Thailand.

"The past year has been a tough one for fund managers. The vast majority of equity markets fell in 2018 on growing fears of a US recession, worries over the health of the global economy and a trade war.

 

A cursory glance over the performance figures of funds rated Bronze or better by Morningstar analysts shows just how tough it’s been professional investors. A shocking 91% of the 429-strong list ended the year in the red, with just 38 making money for investors."

 

Ha ha.

 

 

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

"The past year has been a tough one for fund managers. The vast majority of equity markets fell in 2018 on growing fears of a US recession, worries over the health of the global economy and a trade war.

 

A cursory glance over the performance figures of funds rated Bronze or better by Morningstar analysts shows just how tough it’s been professional investors. A shocking 91% of the 429-strong list ended the year in the red, with just 38 making money for investors."

 

Ha ha.

 

 

So what? I'm not invested with any fund or fund manager.

I grew my asset base by 4.5% last financial year, AFTER drawing down living expenses and the capital cost of a new Mazda 2 in Thailand.

I don't see any reason to have other people managing my money, when I can do it quite adequately myself.

 

[Lacessit]

14 hours ago, ubonjoe said:

It has not gone into effect yet since it has not been formalized or formally approved. The first approval was only for the proposal for it.

Fair point. However, with that uncertainty hovering over O-A visas, how many people are now applying for them? There seems to be a rush of farangs in CM applying for marriage visas. Marcusaurelus seems to be suggesting I can cash in my gain on the 800K in the bank, and go back to an O-A. That doesn't make sense to me with the current uncertainty.

[jacko45k]

On 7/13/2019 at 8:26 AM, sometime said:

And dont forget even if you sell the house for what you paid you have lived in it rent free for all those years

Minus the annual legal costs ?

[marcusarelus]

16 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

So what? I'm not invested with any fund or fund manager.

I grew my asset base by 4.5% last financial year, AFTER drawing down living expenses and the capital cost of a new Mazda 2 in Thailand.

I don't see any reason to have other people managing my money, when I can do it quite adequately myself.

This is the post I was responding to.  "I prefer to keep my money invested in the US. I can blindly pick some conservative bond mutual funds and generate 6% in the most stable country of the world"

 

I posted, 

"The past year has been a tough one for fund managers. The vast majority of equity markets fell in 2018 on growing fears of a US recession, worries over the health of the global economy and a trade war.

 

A cursory glance over the performance figures of funds rated Bronze or better by Morningstar analysts shows just how tough it’s been professional investors. A shocking 91% of the 429-strong list ended the year in the red, with just 38 making money for investors."

 

Make sense now?  

[marcusarelus]

12 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Fair point. However, with that uncertainty hovering over O-A visas, how many people are now applying for them? There seems to be a rush of farangs in CM applying for marriage visas. Marcusaurelus seems to be suggesting I can cash in my gain on the 800K in the bank, and go back to an O-A. That doesn't make sense to me with the current uncertainty.

The baht is going up and the Aussie dollar is going down - is that the uncertainty you mean?

Edited July 15, 2019 by marcusarelus

[Thailand J]

29 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

Make sense now? 

NO.

Investment is a lifelong journey. Not just one year, you have to look at much longer time span if you want to talk about the market.

You also need to look at the broad market. Professional investors, hedge fund managers, managed funds don't always beat the broad market indices. As someone one said, they're monkeys with darts.

 

[marcusarelus]

1 minute ago, Thailand J said:

NO.

Investment is a lifelong journey. Not just one year, you have to look at much longer time span if you want to talk about the market.

You also need to look at the broad market. Professional investors, hedge fund managers, managed funds don't always beat the broad market indices. As someone one said, they're monkeys with darts.

OK.  I moved my money to Thailand in a bank with no risk in 2005.  16k  Now worth 25k.  And I have used the money for my retirement extension every year since 2005.  So, if I'd have used an agent that would have cost me 200,000 baht and add the 2 % interest I made in addition to the peace of mind. And how'd I do?  

[Thailand J]

28 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

And how'd I do? 

You did very well. I am doing the same with 800k in  Bangkok Bank for immigration, another 1M in SCB fixed deposit for emergency.

The return of an investment does not have to be monetary. With 800k in the bank you don't have to deal with an agent, no need to manage 65k money transfer every month. The elite visa would have costed me 1.5M by now. And the 800k is in the bank under your name still your money. A great investment if you ask me.

 

Edited July 15, 2019 by Thailand J

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

The baht is going up and the Aussie dollar is going down - is that the uncertainty you mean?

No, I meant the uncertainty of whether mandatory health insurance will come into the visa mix at some point. I suspect you are being deliberately obtuse.

Are you able to accept there is more than one way to skin a cat in terms of investment? Being fixated on the baht exchange rate for a small percentage of my capital is not one of them. While it's nice to have a paper gain on my 800K, it's still dead money unless I emigrate to other places.

[Pumpuynarak]

3 hours ago, Thailand J said:

And the 800k is in the bank under your name still your money.

and when you spend it in Thailand its still only 800K lol

[Lacessit]

3 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

This is the post I was responding to.  "I prefer to keep my money invested in the US. I can blindly pick some conservative bond mutual funds and generate 6% in the most stable country of the world"

 

I posted, 

"The past year has been a tough one for fund managers. The vast majority of equity markets fell in 2018 on growing fears of a US recession, worries over the health of the global economy and a trade war.

 

A cursory glance over the performance figures of funds rated Bronze or better by Morningstar analysts shows just how tough it’s been professional investors. A shocking 91% of the 429-strong list ended the year in the red, with just 38 making money for investors."

 

Make sense now?  

No. Rule number 1 in investing is don't put money into something you don't understand. I don't understand US equity or bond markets, nor do I want to. IMO a house of cards trembling in the breeze.

I understand Australian equity markets and peer-to-peer lending. Since my retirement in 2008, my assets have been capital stable or better over 11 years, while drawing down to supplement my part pension. That makes sense to me.

 

[onera1961]

This is the post I was responding to.  "I prefer to keep my money invested in the US. I can blindly pick some conservative bond mutual funds and generate 6% in the most stable country of the world"
 
I posted, 
"The past year has been a tough one for fund managers. The vast majority of equity markets fell in 2018 on growing fears of a US recession, worries over the health of the global economy and a trade war.
 
A cursory glance over the performance figures of funds rated Bronze or better by Morningstar analysts shows just how tough it’s been professional investors. A shocking 91% of the 429-strong list ended the year in the red, with just 38 making money for investors."
 
Make sense now?  

Yes last year it was down but it has picked up since. Just investing in S&P index fund will generate at least 6% per year. I am still thinking if I bring few million or not into Thailand and keep in BHT or not to hedge against baht appreciation.

Sent from my Hi9Pro using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Thailand J]

If you start with 780000B in US in a 6% account and transfer 65000B to meet immigration requirement,  the interest/yeild over 12 months is more like 3% of 780000B. Thai banks pay 1.5%. It's just not that much of difference to be focus at, about $400, before considering US tax and the cost of monthly 65k transfer.

 

I made out like a bandit by investing in US index funds in the last few years, but thats a different story. You can't have every dollar invested. My money in Thailand is part of the reserve cash, without which I may have to sell stocks at the wrong time such as in Dec 18 or May 19.

 

 

 

Edited July 15, 2019 by Thailand J