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A dry wet season - does catastrophe loom?

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34 minutes ago, canopy said:

I keep track of rainfall myself since I distrust the government due to several factors like (A) them needing to deliver huge rainfall numbers to show cloud seeding works and needs more funding and (B) how they sweep the air pollution under the rug hiding the truth from the people. So I have my own rain gauge and record single rain for years and keep a spreadsheet so I know exactly the real situation. Through July, my area in Phetchabun had less rain in 2014 and 2015 compared to this year so that would put this year in the middle compared to the last 5 years. Yes the rainy season started later than average. Yes there have been long dry spells. But I've seen worse and I've seen better. I don't see downward trend or doomsday event, just another year. I am pretty confident that in time an unusually wet year will occur and everyone will be moaning and groaning about floods, overflowing reservoirs, and how the government should have been doing more to prevent flooding.

 

How long have you been collecting rainfall data?  How do we know that you are collecting the data using established protocols?  Why should we trust you?

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Catastrophe is a certainty as far as I am concerned, but I stop well short of Thailand becoming a net importer of rice. Thailand may suffer a drought and water shortage but enough of Thailand will get sufficient rain for a poor crop and exports will drop dramatically. It is possible that this is the drought that forces Thailand to adopt "best" water management practices and perhaps they will bring in consultants and start a holistic whole country water management program. We shall see. Until then it will be Bangkok first, Pattaya second. Phuket third, and who cares about anywhere else I am afraid.    

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10 hours ago, DoktorC said:

Why should we trust you?

No need to trust anyone. Let's just continue your discussion on the next wet year. Then you can see how awkward your comments are. I've been through the doom and gloom years with the summit in 2015. Back then people were convinced asia was drying up for good. Climate change, not enough trees left, blah blah blah and all the crop failures. Then rainy years followed. And this year is even wetter than it was 4 or 5 years ago. So when I look around all I see this year is just normal weather, not a downward trend or end of days. Years like this have happened before, and they'll happen again.

 

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32 minutes ago, canopy said:

No need to trust anyone. Let's just continue your discussion on the next wet year. Then you can see how awkward your comments are. I've been through the doom and gloom years with the summit in 2015. Back then people were convinced asia was drying up for good. Climate change, not enough trees left, blah blah blah and all the crop failures. Then rainy years followed. And this year is even wetter than it was 4 or 5 years ago. So when I look around all I see this year is just normal weather, not a downward trend or end of days. Years like this have happened before, and they'll happen again.

 

Judging by the large majority of comments, you must be in an area enjoying its own nice micro-climate. 

 

Or maybe you are in denial, like so many others, and see things like you want them to be rather than like they are. 

 

I for one have long thought that Isaan was doomed to become dryland, climate change or not, because that is generally a side effect of massive deforestation in areas previously covered with jungle. 

 

It seems that we are getting there... 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Or maybe you are in denial, like so many others, and see things like you want them to be rather than like they are 

No I am not in denial. I have a rain gauge. It doesn't lie. Micro-climate? Possibly. Despite the late start and long dry spells that i see like everyone else, I also see that this year has already dumped close to a meter of rain in my area. That outpaces some other years.

 

 

Edited by canopy

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On 7/15/2019 at 7:41 PM, Samuel Smith said:

Had my lawn sprinklers on for over a week, east of Chiang mai.  Reservoirs very low.

col_6-11563158107.jpg

That's the graph of water in the Mae Kuang Dam, updated daily. Shows water levels currently above 2016 and 2017 levels.  Might seem low because last year was above average. Also note that the lowest levels usually occur in July. There has been a dip in the water level recently, probably due to the need for water in the fields for planting (and not a lot of rainfall). The upturn usually occurs in late July. We're right on target, not a drought year (yet).

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OP says farmers would buy rice. True?

 

Have read there is a drought and reservoirs are low. Just wondering if the powers that be released dam water in anticipation of rain.

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No rains for over 7 months, lawns don't need cutting so I'm feeling unfit and have put on weight. ...... but am still drinking the post mowing beers !!

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On 7/15/2019 at 1:55 PM, Youlike said:

Rice uses loads of water, they can grow some special produce instead and save water....grow another product which needs less water and problem is solved.

Poppies are a good cash crop 😀

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