Is it worth buying USD?

[baneko]

 

As we can see the Thai Baht is currently extremely strong against most foreign currencies.

 

I currently have the advantage of having some baht in the bank. At the time of exchange it was approx 35-36 to the USD. I was paid in USD at the time.

 

My concern is that I would expect the baht to weaken over time and the dollar to strengthen. Do you lads think its a good time to buy into the USD or another currency?

 

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[CharlieH]

MOVED to Banking/finance forum

[inThailand]

Wait until it goes below 30. not far away.

I am shipping money out of baht to anywhere but here, except the Pound or Euro.

[jojothai]

Yes the baht is too strong  but so is the usd.

Currencies are very difficult for me or you to judge. The experts have a hard time making calls.

The IMF said 2 days ago that the USD is 6 to 12% too strong.

A lot of talk in the markets that USD should fall.

IMHO usd could fall about 5 to 6 % soon.

That is likely to push the baht higher in the short term. So best to wait.

If you switched after say a 5% further rise, then you balance the risk of a further baht rise against the gain when the baht peaks and goes into a downtrend. That has to happen at some point and many people hope it happens soon.

 

Some contrarians say the euro is due to rebound. It looks possible.

GBP is undervalued but too risky due brexit.

Switching currencies can be costly. Consider the costs if you are resident here and may need the money in baht later.

 

There is another option here in thailand that you could consider, to buy gold. The spread buy to sell is very small. In theory if usd falls gold will go up and likely match any rise in the baht. Then when the baht falls the gold price here in baht should go up.

But gold has other risks for price movement. Currently very bullish but that could change, so if the money is savings that you dont want to see rising and falling then dont buy it.

However, depending on your financial circumstances many financial advisers say its a good idea to have some of your assets in gold as insurance if their is major crisis.

From my experience advisers tend to suggest about 5% of assets.

I am only suggesting that you look at this as an option. Its down to individual circumstances.

If you have a thai wife she may love the idea of holding some gold.

Mine was very happy when i bought some.

 

I am not a financial adviser.

I do hold some physical gold here as above. With trump in power, who knows what will happen next.

 

[KOZMO]

Don't like the Thai Gold, not the same as International. If you want Gold, buy 24 K,  cause had some friends buy 

 

Thai Gold and went to sell in the U S.  They lost money on the Thai Gold !!!

[Lacessit]

All paper currencies are a product of faith. If the world ever loses faith in the US dollar as the world reserve currency, its value will plummet. The GBP is a case in point. Its value went down on the basis of Brexit, because of the perceived adverse consequences of exiting the European Union.

Bear in mind buying US dollars or gold is hedging, not investing. Having said that, I haven't heard of too many people who have lost faith in gold.

[Lacessit]

5 minutes ago, KOZMO said:

Don't like the Thai Gold, not the same as International. If you want Gold, buy 24 K,  cause had some friends buy 

 

Thai Gold and went to sell in the U S.  They lost money on the Thai Gold !!!

That's because Thai gold is not bullion quality. It is 96.5% gold, not 99.99%.

Your friends were dumb. Thai gold should only be bought and sold in Thailand.

[ToddinChonburi]

Yes it's a good time due the math,  30 baht to $1 or 35 baht per $1

 

[Pinot]

You can't really effectively manage currency exchange. By the time you make a move the currency has already moved. This is what forex money trading is all about and it's difficult to make money that way. I'd say don't waste your time. Very few people can time the market...really, no one can. 

 

And Lacessit above me here, buying gold is always speculation. My opinion is your crazy to own gold. 

[sawadeeken]

Let me mention something I heard and quite well believe...... A number of years ago when Taksin was running the country in Thailand...... I read in news , obviously posted by his opposition..... That Taksin bought and sold US dollars with the inside help of those who controlled the valuation of the dollar/baht and told him when to sell and when to buy.... the biggest difference I can see between YOU and HIM is that he had 'inside' guidance.........I don't know that any of this is 'fact'........ but I personally considered it 'Quite credible'.......

[NCC1701A]

2 hours ago, jojothai said:

I do hold some physical gold here as above. With trump in power, who knows what will happen next.

maybe more booming stock market DOW 27000. record low unemployment. soaring economy.    

 

[thaiboss]

2 hours ago, jojothai said:

Yes the baht is too strong  but so is the usd.

Currencies are very difficult for me or you to judge. The experts have a hard time making calls.

The IMF said 2 days ago that the USD is 6 to 12% too strong.

A lot of talk in the markets that USD should fall.

IMHO usd could fall about 5 to 6 % soon.

That is likely to push the baht higher in the short term. So best to wait.

If you switched after say a 5% further rise, then you balance the risk of a further baht rise against the gain when the baht peaks and goes into a downtrend. That has to happen at some point and many people hope it happens soon.

 

Some contrarians say the euro is due to rebound. It looks possible.

GBP is undervalued but too risky due brexit.

Switching currencies can be costly. Consider the costs if you are resident here and may need the money in baht later.

 

There is another option here in thailand that you could consider, to buy gold. The spread buy to sell is very small. In theory if usd falls gold will go up and likely match any rise in the baht. Then when the baht falls the gold price here in baht should go up.

But gold has other risks for price movement. Currently very bullish but that could change, so if the money is savings that you dont want to see rising and falling then dont buy it.

However, depending on your financial circumstances many financial advisers say its a good idea to have some of your assets in gold as insurance if their is major crisis.

From my experience advisers tend to suggest about 5% of assets.

I am only suggesting that you look at this as an option. Its down to individual circumstances.

If you have a thai wife she may love the idea of holding some gold.

Mine was very happy when i bought some.

 

I am not a financial adviser.

I do hold some physical gold here as above. With trump in power, who knows what will happen next.

 

if and when or if it will .... bla bla no body know thats the point  there must be somebody responsible for the money no ?who control the world money exchange ?  sure its not the cosmic energy doing it 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[spidermike007]

Virtually every aspect of the US economy is overinflated, overheated, and overpriced. There are already signs of the real estate market starting to fall, in many regions of the US. It is only a matter of time. Eventually, the stock market is going to correct, as the current pricing is not justified. Will the dollar hold it's own? I doubt it. I foresee 20 baht to a dollar in the near future. Beyond that? Possibly 10 baht to a dollar. Asian economies are more fundamentally sound than the US economy. I see them continuing to grow, while the US economy will eventually flounder, or drop significantly. 

 

No doubt the US is becoming a less relevant nation by the day. Will the dollar eventually be replaced? Who knows. With what? Who knows? The debt that Trump is racking up is unsustainable. Very, very irresponsible fiscal policy. Just like with his companies. 

[tjo o tjim]

A little bit of diversification is good, but holding a “third” currency for speculation is silly unless you really know what you are doing.  We keep a few thousand USD cash around in Thailand because it is significantly more compact than THB.  We should add to our THB account when the exchange rate is good, as about 60% of our spending now is THB but 99.9% of our money is USD.

[DualSportBiker]

I played the currency market for four months in 2010. I just happened to have money in US, Sing$ and GBP at the time and was watching the variation in ER for a while. I've never been so stressed.

 

Even with a direct line to my bank's treasury team, it was painful to do. I traded up to 100,000 USD per trade and held one specific currency from between two days and two weeks (not planned, just that was the cadence.) Eventually I consolidated all in to one currency and tied that chapter of my life off never to repeat it. I came away 24% up having been 50% up and 10% down all within the space of the last three weeks. Remember the scene from Apollo 13 when they have to align the LEM without guidance computers? Every day was like that.

 

 

[kevin612]

Personally, I think it is good time for you.

[KiChakayan]

Sorry for hijacking the topic somewhat: I can, and might do it, peg my pension to a USD/THB conversion rate range of 31.47 to 33.5, hence losing out whenever the USD goes over 33.5, but with the peace of mind given by the bottom rate. I would not e be allowed to reverse this.

 

Would you do it?

[davidst01]

3 hours ago, KOZMO said:

Don't like the Thai Gold, not the same as International. If you want Gold, buy 24 K,  cause had some friends buy 

 

Thai Gold and went to sell in the U S.  They lost money on the Thai Gold !!!

Can you please educate me. what is the difference between 24k and thai gold. Are you talking about 24k diamonds? I dont understand

thanks

[ThaiBunny]

Just now, davidst01 said:

Can you please educate me. what is the difference between 24k and thai gold. Are you talking about 24k diamonds? I dont understand

thanks

Gold quality (in common with all gemstones including diamonds) is measured in carats. Gold is usually sold as 16 or 24 carat. I understand (although I could be wrong) that gold sold in Thailand is more often 8 carat (ie. inferior quality)

[davidst01]

2 hours ago, DualSportBiker said:

I played the currency market for four months in 2010. I just happened to have money in US, Sing$ and GBP at the time and was watching the variation in ER for a while. I've never been so stressed.

 

Even with a direct line to my bank's treasury team, it was painful to do. I traded up to 100,000 USD per trade and held one specific currency from between two days and two weeks (not planned, just that was the cadence.) Eventually I consolidated all in to one currency and tied that chapter of my life off never to repeat it. I came away 24% up having been 50% up and 10% down all within the space of the last three weeks. Remember the scene from Apollo 13 when they have to align the LEM without guidance computers? Every day was like that.

 

 

In your experience, do you think its a good time to buy USD cash and hold it as speculation? What about the gbp?

[The Theory]

3 hours ago, KOZMO said:

If you want Gold, buy 24 K,  cause had some friends buy 

Swiss gold bar only. 

[Naam]

3 minutes ago, davidst01 said:

Can you please educate me. what is the difference between 24k and thai gold. Are you talking about 24k diamonds? I dont understand

thanks

Thai Gold is 96.5% = ~23 karat, bullion gold is 99.99% = 24 karat.

[Naam]

4 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

I understand (although I could be wrong) that gold sold in Thailand is more often 8 carat (ie. inferior quality)

you are indeed wrong.

[Mavideol]

59 minutes ago, KiChakayan said:

Sorry for hijacking the topic somewhat: I can, and might do it, peg my pension to a USD/THB conversion rate range of 31.47 to 33.5, hence losing out whenever the USD goes over 33.5, but with the peace of mind given by the bottom rate. I would not e be allowed to reverse this.

 

Would you do it?

which bank in Thailand does the peg, maybe interesting for me

[Naam]

7 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Gold quality (in common with all gemstones including diamonds) is measured in carats. Gold is usually sold as 16 or 24 carat. I understand (although I could be wrong) that gold sold in Thailand is more often 8 carat (ie. inferior quality)

gemstones are measured in carat (weight), gold is measured in karat (gold content).

[Mavideol]

10 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Gold quality (in common with all gemstones including diamonds) is measured in carats. Gold is usually sold as 16 or 24 carat. I understand (although I could be wrong) that gold sold in Thailand is more often 8 carat (ie. inferior quality)

thought Thai gold was called 24K, had to fix my 18K necklace lock and had to visit 3-4 stores before finding one using 18 K all previous ones couldn't do it as they said their gold it's 24 K

[ThaiBunny]

Just now, Mavideol said:

thought Thai gold was called 24K, had to fix my 18K necklace lock and had to visit 3-4 stores before finding one using 18 K all previous ones couldn't do it as they said their gold it's 24 K

I'm citing a Chinese goldsmith in Sydney who informed my friend rather snootily that his "valuable" Thai gold necklace was merely 8 carat and could not be repaired as she did not carry "inferior" gold in stock

[KiChakayan]

30 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

which bank in Thailand does the peg, maybe interesting for me

My pension fund (UNJSPF), gives me that option. Doubt any bank would do it.

[how241]

Buy ETH, now around $200.  It should double in a year or so.  Of course,  it's risky. Bitcoin and LTC too. 

[how241]

Thai gold should be 96.5%.