UK may be entering full-blown recession: budget watchdog

[BritManToo]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

That's what Brexiters were promising before the referendum. How has that worked out so far?

Not so well as Treason May was doing the bargaining, and everyone knew she wasn't going to leave.

Boris should be able to negotiate a few $$$$$$s for himself for not leaving.

[bristolboy]

59 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

The reason QE is less powerful than fiscal policies is simple. QE merely encourages financial institutions not to hold government bonds because of low interest rates. So the thinking goes that they'll invest instead. But as experience shows it's not that powerful. Holders of government bonds often prefer even negative rates to investing. But increased government spending actually does pump money into the economy and increase demand. So the reason why the recovery in the EU is stalling is because increased government spending is a much more effective way of priming the pump.

Just to add this to understand the relative inefficacy of QE, there's this common characterization: It's like pushing on a rope.

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, bristolboy said:

The reason QE is less powerful than fiscal policies is simple. QE merely encourages financial institutions not to hold government bonds because of low interest rates. So the thinking goes that they'll invest instead. But as experience shows it's not that powerful. Holders of government bonds often prefer even negative rates to investing. But increased government spending actually does pump money into the economy and increase demand. So the reason why the recovery in the EU is stalling is because increased government spending is a much more effective way of priming the pump.

Actually there's a bit of incompleteness in this post. I should have written "lend and invest". The emphasis should definitely be on lending.

[Chomper Higgot]

44 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Not so well as Treason May was doing the bargaining, and everyone knew she wasn't going to leave.

Boris should be able to negotiate a few $$$$$$s for himself for not leaving.

I’m pleased to see a bit of reality is getting through.

 

Well, at least as far as what to expect from Johnson.

[bristolboy]

As I noticed from a few deleted troll posts, there's a curious phenomenon among many Brexiters whereby those who claim to hate the EU think it desirable to emulate what is probably it's biggest mistake, at least as far as the Eurozone goes which is very far. Namely, that austerity in the face of recession is a good idea. Economics rarely gives one the opportunity to view natural experiments, but the Great Recession provided one. The EU decided to throw in its lot with something called "Stimulative Austerity". Namely, slash spending in the face of a recession. The believe was that this would somehow stimulate business confidence and investments would increase and the economy get back to normal. It failed miserably. Finally the EU threw in the towel and resorted to the much weaker measure of Quantitative Easing.

 

In the face of the Great Recession, the Tories made a lot of noise about austerity but ultimately backed down. To use Keynes' phrase, the deficit spending (what some call "printing money") primed the pump and the UK made a relatively quick recovery. Not so fast as the USA, which did it sooner, but certainly far better than Eurozone nations. And the reason the UK could do this was because its currency is the pound. So we have Brexiters who quite rightly rejoice in the fact that the UK's currency is the pound, but don't have a clue as to what the real grounds are for their happiness. The very thing that makes the pound so powerful a tool, is what they want to neuter. Bizarre.

 

[Krataiboy]

19 hours ago, geoffbezoz said:

Thanks to the Brexit fools that is. As I said before, the UK will soon be vying with Greece as the poor man of Europe.

Anything to make you happy.

[dunroaming]

18 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Project Fear, still trying.

Amazed the UK economy is the world's 5th largest.

The other 26 odd EU countries economies must be shit.

They must be pooping themselves as a no-deal Brexit approaches.

 

How will they cope without the UK paying for them all?

Yep that good old chestnut "project fear".  Always the stock response and so predictable.

 

To be fair there was a level of project fear from the remain campaigners before the vote that turned out to be incorrect.  Much the same as the bullsh*t from the leave campaigners.  Both sides guilty of that.  The resulting problem is then, when there are justified warnings of damage that a no-deal will bring, people revert to the standard PF chant.

 

There is only one way to see if this is project fear or the warnings are true and that is to go ahead and leave with no deal.  I really hope that that doesn't happen.  Last thing I want here is to be proved right! 

[bristolboy]

6 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

Anything to make you happy.

You mean the UK is actually going to compete with Greece just to make GeoffBezoz happy? Truly as regards the UK, the age of chivalry is not dead. God Bless the Queen!

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, bristolboy said:

As I noticed from a few deleted troll posts, there's a curious phenomenon among many Brexiters whereby those who claim to hate the EU think it desirable to emulate what is probably it's biggest mistake, at least as far as the Eurozone goes which is very far. Namely, that austerity in the face of recession is a good idea. Economics rarely gives one the opportunity to view natural experiments, but the Great Recession provided one. The EU decided to throw in its lot with something called "Stimulative Austerity". Namely, slash spending in the face of a recession. The believe was that this would somehow stimulate business confidence and investments would increase and the economy get back to normal. It failed miserably. Finally the EU threw in the towel and resorted to the much weaker measure of Quantitative Easing.

 

In the face of the Great Recession, the Tories made a lot of noise about austerity but ultimately backed down. To use Keynes' phrase, the deficit spending (what some call "printing money") primed the pump and the UK made a relatively quick recovery. Not so fast as the USA, which did it sooner, but certainly far better than Eurozone nations. And the reason the UK could do this was because its currency is the pound. So we have Brexiters who quite rightly rejoice in the fact that the UK's currency is the pound, but don't have a clue as to what the real grounds are for their happiness. The very thing that makes the pound so powerful a tool, is what they want to neuter. Bizarre.

 

Strange how you can notice things from posts that have been deleted. 

[bristolboy]

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Not so well as Treason May was doing the bargaining, and everyone knew she wasn't going to leave.

Boris should be able to negotiate a few $$$$$$s for himself for not leaving.

Or just maybe because the EU didn't want to negotiate a deal for the UK that would make it too tempting for others to leave?

[BritManToo]

Just now, bristolboy said:

Or just maybe because the EU didn't want to negotiate a deal for the UK that would make it too tempting for others to leave?

Does anyone apart from the UK, Germany, France contribute anything worth keeping?

[bristolboy]

15 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Strange how you can notice things from posts that have been deleted. 

Not so strange to those of us who still have a reasonably functional faculty of memory at our command.

[nauseus]

30 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Not so strange to those of us who still have a reasonably functional faculty of memory at our command.

Ah! Copy before report. Excellent.

[Chomper Higgot]

34 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Does anyone apart from the UK, Germany, France contribute anything worth keeping?

It's not simply a matter of what is 'Contributed', there is for example, the not insignificant market for British goods and services within EU nations other than Germany and France and too the collective bargaining power of the whole. 

 

Added to which are the multiple international trade agreements the EU has established around the world over decades of negotiating. 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

53 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Strange how you can notice things from posts that have been deleted. 

So strange you have nothing else to say on such a well argued post. 

[tomacht8]

54 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Does anyone apart from the UK, Germany, France contribute anything worth keeping?

incredible. You had 3 years to get this information by yourself. A simple google search would answer your question. I wonder on what information basis your pro brexit position is based.

Obviously not on self-researched facts.

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, bristolboy said:

As I noticed from a few deleted troll posts, there's a curious phenomenon among many Brexiters whereby those who claim to hate the EU think it desirable to emulate what is probably it's biggest mistake, at least as far as the Eurozone goes which is very far. Namely, that austerity in the face of recession is a good idea. Economics rarely gives one the opportunity to view natural experiments, but the Great Recession provided one. The EU decided to throw in its lot with something called "Stimulative Austerity". Namely, slash spending in the face of a recession. The believe was that this would somehow stimulate business confidence and investments would increase and the economy get back to normal. It failed miserably. Finally the EU threw in the towel and resorted to the much weaker measure of Quantitative Easing.

 

In the face of the Great Recession, the Tories made a lot of noise about austerity but ultimately backed down. To use Keynes' phrase, the deficit spending (what some call "printing money") primed the pump and the UK made a relatively quick recovery. Not so fast as the USA, which did it sooner, but certainly far better than Eurozone nations. And the reason the UK could do this was because its currency is the pound. So we have Brexiters who quite rightly rejoice in the fact that the UK's currency is the pound, but don't have a clue as to what the real grounds are for their happiness. The very thing that makes the pound so powerful a tool, is what they want to neuter. Bizarre.

 

"Stimulative austerity"? Strange - never heard that one before and can't find it anywhere associated with the EU, either. Must be a secret weapon. So secret nobody knows about it.

 

Meanwhile the Tories did not back down on the austerity budget until late last year, once the budget deficit had been balanced and the UK debt curve had topped and flattened. 

[nauseus]

49 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

So strange you have nothing else to say on such a well argued post. 

That certainly has to be a MOO.

[rickudon]

On 7/18/2019 at 7:28 PM, sammieuk1 said:

Great news they are finally going to get what they voted for???? 

The turkeys voted for Xmas?

[puipuitom]

On ‎7‎/‎18‎/‎2019 at 2:27 PM, geoffbezoz said:

Thanks to the Brexit fools that is. As I said before, the UK will soon be vying with Greece as the poor man of Europe.

Before the UK joined the EEC ( and later EU, after the signature of the British PM and ratification in the UK Parliament).

Sick man of Europe - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sick_man_of_Europe

"Sick man of Europe" is a label given to a European country experiencing a time of economic .... Throughout the late 1960s and 1970s, the United Kingdom was frequently called the "sick man of Europe", first by foreign commentators, and later ...

 

Why was the UK considered “the sick man of Europe” in the 1970s ...

https://www.quora.com/Why-was-the-UK-considered-“the-sick-man-of-Europe”-in-the-1970s

The term “Sick man of Europe” was used by the media to impress upon the workforce that Britains position compared to it's European …

 

What has the EU done for the UK? | Financial Times

https://www.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd8-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377

31 Mar 2017 ... His is a story that goes to the heart of the history of the UK in Europe and the ... then the European Economic Community in 1973 as the sick man of Europe. ... increased: in the 1970s, soon after the UK joined, and after the EU ...

[puipuitom]

On ‎7‎/‎18‎/‎2019 at 2:34 PM, BritManToo said:

Project Fear, still trying.

Amazed the UK economy is the world's 5th largest.

The other 26 odd EU countries economies must be shit.

They must be pooping themselves as a no-deal Brexit approaches.

 

How will they cope without the UK paying for them all?

Time to learn reading:

UK economy since the Brexit vote: slower GDP growth, lower ...

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2019/03/22/uk-economy-since-the-brexit-vote-slower-gdp-growth-lower-productivity-and-a-weaker-pound/

22 Mar 2019 ... Evidence of the UK's economic performance since the EU Referendum is clear:GDP growth has slowed down, productivity has ... Compared to G7 countries, consumer price inflation continues to be higher but has fallen ...

[puipuitom]

On ‎7‎/‎18‎/‎2019 at 3:44 PM, bristolboy said:

Yes, Brexit will inevitably be bad for UK economics. But no, it won't reduce the UK to Greece. On the one hand it's a universally observed rule of economics that the geographically closer countries are to each other the more trade they do with each other.. So the cries of we'll find new markets to replace the ones we've lost are nuts. On the other hand, the UK will be trading on the same terms with the EU as the USA now does. And that's a huge volume of trade. And that's because most tariffs are very low or nonexistent. And in the case of integrated supply lines between the rest of the EU and the UK, that will hurt manufacturing. But most of the UK economy is in services. So that impact is limited.

"Services" are only bougth wehn money is avalibale.

Imagine, the entire UK car industry has to face a 10% import duty into the EU, the entire confectionary 13,7% see https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en , pork+ cow + goat + sheep meat forbidden to export to the EU seen the danger of mouth and claw diseases ( as form ALL "third countries"), all FSA certificates not recognised anymore by the EU see https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/dds2/taric/taric_consultation.jsp?Lang=en , what you think will happen with a LOT of UK jobs ?

[puipuitom]

14 hours ago, fishtank said:

Thanks Boris and co.

You have done a great job.

Personal gain and political right wing ideology trumps the national interest every time.

I donot understand… according to all Brexiteers, Brexit ( they only forget WHICH Brexit) won with an overwhelmingly lansdslide result of 51,88%. Only a mere 48,11% voted against. As in the UK, the winner takes it all, so.. who cares about these 48,11%. It is the Always winning majority of voters who are right. that they followed the UK version of the Pied Piper of Hamelin...

[puipuitom]

12 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

By now I hope the UK will leave in October without a deal with the EU.

And then let them do whatever they want to do alone.

Maybe a great deal with the USA or China or whatever. I am sure the world is watching so that we can all learn from you.

 

And in case you come back to the EU in a couple of years and want to join the club again: Be prepared that you won't get any special deal - because you don't deserve a special deal.

No preferences, accept €uro, Schengen and.. right lane traffic. Oh.. and we forgot… the real outcome of the divorse bill is really  100 BILLION. Pay first... 

[puipuitom]

12 hours ago, soalbundy said:

and you can kiss your pound goodbye.

Which POUND ?  Oh you mean the "once" !

[puipuitom]

9 hours ago, BritManToo said:

The EU is a socialist state, the 3 richest (Germany, UK, France) pay for the other 24.

With the UK out, that's 1/3 of their income gone, and France is so impoverished you can buy a hobby farm for 20,000 euros.

 

I actually don't ever believe the UK will leave, they'll do a deal to buy Boris and Co. off.

Can't see how Germany can afford not to do a deal at any price.

But it's great to dream.

 

As for the value of the pound, put interest rates up to 7% and it'll do well.

 

[puipuitom]

On ‎7‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 9:23 AM, bristolboy said:

As I noticed from a few deleted troll posts, there's a curious phenomenon among many Brexiters whereby those who claim to hate the EU think it desirable to emulate what is probably it's biggest mistake, at least as far as the Eurozone goes which is very far. Namely, that austerity in the face of recession is a good idea. Economics rarely gives one the opportunity to view natural experiments, but the Great Recession provided one. The EU decided to throw in its lot with something called "Stimulative Austerity". Namely, slash spending in the face of a recession. The believe was that this would somehow stimulate business confidence and investments would increase and the economy get back to normal. It failed miserably. Finally the EU threw in the towel and resorted to the much weaker measure of Quantitative Easing.

 

In the face of the Great Recession, the Tories made a lot of noise about austerity but ultimately backed down. To use Keynes' phrase, the deficit spending (what some call "printing money") primed the pump and the UK made a relatively quick recovery. Not so fast as the USA, which did it sooner, but certainly far better than Eurozone nations. And the reason the UK could do this was because its currency is the pound. So we have Brexiters who quite rightly rejoice in the fact that the UK's currency is the pound, but don't have a clue as to what the real grounds are for their happiness. The very thing that makes the pound so powerful a tool, is what they want to neuter. Bizarre.

 

Also read the part of "governmental debth" in the publication of Keynes, and you will understand, the governments are running against that wall. France, Germany, Italy and the UK eacht over € 2 TRILLION in debth…of spending before..

[malagateddy]

No preferences, accept €uro, Schengen and.. right lane traffic. Oh.. and we forgot… the real outcome of the divorse bill is really  100 BILLION. Pay first... 

Really hope that you're a good singer[emoji6]

Sent from my SM-G7102 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Thongkorn]

key word MAYBE , or MAYBE entering a period of boom.

[bristolboy]

On 7/19/2019 at 5:43 PM, nauseus said:

"Stimulative austerity"? Strange - never heard that one before and can't find it anywhere associated with the EU, either. Must be a secret weapon. So secret nobody knows about it.

 

Meanwhile the Tories did not back down on the austerity budget until late last year, once the budget deficit had been balanced and the UK debt curve had topped and flattened. 

Better known as expansionary austerity

Revisiting the evidence on expansionary fiscal austerity: Alesina’s hour?

‘Alberto Alesina is a new favourite among fiscal hawks…. In April (2010) in Madrid, he told the European Union’s economic and finance ministers that “large, credible and decisive” spending cuts to rescue budget deficits have frequently been followed by economic growth. He was…influential enough to be cited in the official communiqué of the EU finance minister’s meeting’.[2]

https://voxeu.org/debates/commentaries/revisiting-evidence-expansionary-fiscal-austerity-alesina-s-hour

RPT-ECB's Trichet says austerity does not spell recession

PARIS, Dec 3 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Friday that he did not think that austerity measures in euro countries would drive them into recession.

Asked if austerity measures would push euro zone countries into recession, he said “I don’t think so,” in an interview with French radio RTL

https://www.reuters.com/article/france-trichet-idUSPIS3NE6K820101203

 

As for Tories not backing down, you're absolutely right. I was wrong on that and on one other thing too: the rapid recovery of the UK. Not so. In fact even now  the UK's GDP has not reached the level it was at before the Great Recession. Whereas the USA, where stimulative measures were immediately put into action, surpassed it's old former gdp record in 2011.

The 2 graphs below will make this clear.