UK may be entering full-blown recession: budget watchdog

[nauseus]

43 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Better known as expansionary austerity

Revisiting the evidence on expansionary fiscal austerity: Alesina’s hour?

‘Alberto Alesina is a new favourite among fiscal hawks…. In April (2010) in Madrid, he told the European Union’s economic and finance ministers that “large, credible and decisive” spending cuts to rescue budget deficits have frequently been followed by economic growth. He was…influential enough to be cited in the official communiqué of the EU finance minister’s meeting’.[2]

https://voxeu.org/debates/commentaries/revisiting-evidence-expansionary-fiscal-austerity-alesina-s-hour

RPT-ECB's Trichet says austerity does not spell recession

PARIS, Dec 3 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Friday that he did not think that austerity measures in euro countries would drive them into recession.

Asked if austerity measures would push euro zone countries into recession, he said “I don’t think so,” in an interview with French radio RTL

https://www.reuters.com/article/france-trichet-idUSPIS3NE6K820101203

 

As for Tories not backing down, you're absolutely right. I was wrong on that and on one other thing too: the rapid recovery of the UK. Not so. In fact even now  the UK's GDP has not reached the level it was at before the Great Recession. Whereas the USA, where stimulative measures were immediately put into action, surpassed it's old former gdp record in 2011.

The 2 graphs below will make this clear.

 

Just keep changing the words then.

 

And Bertie Alesina - never heard of him.

 

We were not talking about GDP.

 

 

Back to the Open.

 

 

 

 

[Janner1]

On 7/18/2019 at 5:20 PM, bristolboy said:

Have you never heard of an Act of God? Some things you just can't adequately prepare for unless you want to defy economic history.

One supposes that in your estimation the nuking of Hiroshima was an act of God was it?

 

And for some stupid reason you believe that voting Brexit has deeply offended this deity !!

[bristolboy]

16 minutes ago, Janner1 said:

One supposes that in your estimation the nuking of Hiroshima was an act of God was it?

 

And for some stupid reason you believe that voting Brexit has deeply offended this deity !!

Just like an act of god in that it was too powerful for adequate preparations to be made. Mitigating yes. preventative no.

As for the religious convictions entailed by the use of "act of god"..

I know it's said that there are no atheists in foxholes, but I wasn't aware it applied to insurance companies, too.

[Janner1]

8 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Just like an act of god in that it was too powerful for adequate preparations to be made. Mitigating yes. preventative no.

As for the religious convictions entailed by the use of "act of god"..

I know it's said that there are no atheists in foxholes, but I wasn't aware it applied to insurance companies, too.

Adequate preparation !  How do you adequately prepare for a nuking? 

A nuking is a nuking is a nuking and decisions were made by man as was the button pressing and no deity had anything to do with it.

And where did the submissions Atheist, foxhole and indeed insurance companies come from ?  I have looked back through the entire post and did not see any mention within unless of course one missed it.

 

Personally I do not believe there is such a thing as an act of God because if we are to accept that there is a God and we are supposed to know and love him WHY does this God allow just one child to suffer such terrible sickness and never complete the long life that you and I have so far enjoyed never mind the millions he turns his back on everyday.

 

 

[bristolboy]

5 minutes ago, Janner1 said:

Adequate preparation !  How do you adequately prepare for a nuking? 

A nuking is a nuking is a nuking and decisions were made by man as was the button pressing and no deity had anything to do with it.

And where did the submissions Atheist, foxhole and indeed insurance companies come from ?  I have looked back through the entire post and did not see any mention within unless of course one missed it.

 

Personally I do not believe there is such a thing as an act of God because if we are to accept that there is a God and we are supposed to know and love him WHY does this God allow just one child to suffer such terrible sickness and never complete the long life that you and I have so far enjoyed never mind the millions he turns his back on everyday.

 

 

In the insurance industry, there definitely is such a thing.

[sotonowl]

@arithai12 I'm awaiting your reply. Maybe it is better not to discuss things you know very little about.

The UK has been paying too much into the EU coffers with little in return. I have witnessed Spain and Portugal taken from economies based on what they can grow in the fields to being competitive industrially with the UK, in so much as we have sponsored their economies to the detriment of our own, then some fool tries to justify that. Get real, and research your topic.

[kingdong]

On 7/19/2019 at 10:53 AM, Chomper Higgot said:

It's not simply a matter of what is 'Contributed', there is for example, the not insignificant market for British goods and services within EU nations other than Germany and France and too the collective bargaining power of the whole. 

 

Added to which are the multiple international trade agreements the EU has established around the world over decades of negotiating. 

 

 

had it remained "the common market" it still would have been going,it was only when it started morphing into a european super state the people reacted.

[bristolboy]

On 7/20/2019 at 10:33 PM, nauseus said:

Just keep changing the words then.

 

And Bertie Alesina - never heard of him.

 

We were not talking about GDP.

 

 

Back to the Open.

 

 

 

 

Well, if you've never heard of Alberto Alesina that just proves that you don't really follow economics much. Back at the beginning of the decade his ideas were was everywhere. Even in the UK:

  "The Italian economist Alberto Alesina made the case for expansionary fiscal contraction when he presented a paper to EU finance ministers in April 2010, citing examples of countries – such as Ireland in the late 1980s – where the approach was supposed to have worked. Jean-Claude Trichet, then president of the European Central Bank, was impressed. So was Osborne, who drew on Alesina's work in his emergency budget of 2010."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/may/26/britain-osborne-austerity-programme-experiment

As for not talking about GDP. You may have a point. After all, what does the GDP have to do with recession?

[nauseus]

32 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Well, if you've never heard of Alberto Alesina that just proves that you don't really follow economics much. Back at the beginning of the decade his ideas were was everywhere. Even in the UK:

  "The Italian economist Alberto Alesina made the case for expansionary fiscal contraction when he presented a paper to EU finance ministers in April 2010, citing examples of countries – such as Ireland in the late 1980s – where the approach was supposed to have worked. Jean-Claude Trichet, then president of the European Central Bank, was impressed. So was Osborne, who drew on Alesina's work in his emergency budget of 2010."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/may/26/britain-osborne-austerity-programme-experiment

As for not talking about GDP. You may have a point. After all, what does the GDP have to do with recession?

I just try to follow the money. The first time I heard of Alesina was when you mentioned him as you used the term expansionary fiscal contraction instead of the stimulative austerity that you had used prior to that. Very confusing. Alesina hasn't been quoted much recently as far as I can see and I've never seen his name mentioned on TV before. He is not up there in the top 50 either, with Keynes etc. Of course GDP is affected by recessions it is not a fix for them.

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I just try to follow the money. The first time I heard of Alesina was when you mentioned him as you used the term expansionary fiscal contraction instead of the stimulative austerity that you had used prior to that. Very confusing. Alesina hasn't been quoted much recently as far as I can see and I've never seen his name mentioned on TV before. He is not up there in the top 50 either, with Keynes etc. Of course GDP is affected by recessions it is not a fix for them.

actually the term is expansionary austerity.

And you're right. Alesina hasn't been quoted much recently. As I pointed out he was all the rage during the onset of the Great Recession when he proposed that cutting deficits could actually stimulate the economy. The results of that became clear after 4 or 5 years with the result that his work on that doesn't get much respect anymore.

I didn't say GDP was a fix for recessions. Rather it's an indicator of the strength of the economy as a whole. Though, given the high level of income inequality in the UL and the swingeing budget cuts to services, far from all citizens benefit from it even when it is growing.