Does renewables pioneer Germany risk running out of power?

[snoop1130]

Does renewables pioneer Germany risk running out of power?

By Vera Eckert

 

FILE PHOTO: Water vapour rises from the cooling towers of the Jaenschwalde lignite-fired power plant of Lausitz Energie Bergbau AG (LEAG) in Jaenschwalde, Germany, January 24, 2019. REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo

 

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Germany, a poster child for responsible energy, is renouncing nuclear and coal. The problem is, say many power producers and grid operators, it may struggle to keep the lights on.

 

The country, the biggest electricity market in the European Union, is abandoning nuclear power by 2022 due to safety concerns compounded by the Fukushima disaster and phasing out coal plants over the next 19 years to combat climate change.

 

In the next three years alone conventional energy capacity is expected to fall by a fifth, leaving it short of the country’s peak power demand. There is disagreement over whether there will be sufficient reliable capacity to preclude the possibility of outages, which could hammer the operations of industrial companies.

 

The Berlin government, in a report issued this month, said the situation was secure, and shortfalls could be offset by better energy efficiency, a steadily rising supply of solar and wind power as well as electricity imports.

 

Others are not as confident, including many utilities, network operators, manufacturing companies and analysts.

 

Katharina Reiche, chief executive of the VKU association of local utilities, many of which face falling profitability as plants close, said the government’s strategy was risky because it had not stress-tested all scenarios. She characterized the plan as “walking a tightrope without a safety net”.

 

Utilities and grid firms say if the weather is unfavorable for lengthy periods, green power supply can be negligible, while storage is still largely non-existent. Capacity aside, the network to transport renewable power from north to south is also years and thousands of kilometers behind schedule, they add.

 

Stefan Kapferer, head of Germany’s energy industry group BDEW, said it would be risky to rely on imports. “Conventional power capacity is falling nearly everywhere in Europe and more volatile capacity is being built up,” he told Reuters.

 

The government rejected such concerns, saying the likelihood of plant crashes or identical weather conditions across Europe was remote.

 

Regardless of reliability, however, Germany becoming a net power importer would have major consequences for the whole continent, whose power markets are interlinked under EU single market rules - and are dominated by exports from Germany.

 

The shift comes at a time when nuclear plants in France, another major exporter to the rest of Europe, are ageing fast - meaning it is also increasingly likely to rely on imports.

 

Searing summer temperatures rising to record levels in parts of Europe highlight a quandary facing the continent: how to phase out the fossil fuels driving global warming, while avoiding power shortfalls in an era when there could be increasing spikes in demand from cooling systems and expanding data centers.

 

COMPANIES ON EDGE

 

Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, should lose 12.5 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity by 2022 and its final 10 GW of nuclear power, leaving below 80 GW of conventional capacity, according to recommendations from a government-commissioned panel in January.

 

There will still be nearly enough reliable capacity to meet the country’s peak demand of around 82 GW, with rising green capacity and the option of imports providing a comfortable cushion, economy minister Peter Altmaier said this month.

 

He was speaking upon the release of a separate government safety monitoring report which said a one-for-one match of supply and demand is unnecessary because overcapacities of 80 to 90 GW in the wider European region provided some leeway for imports into Germany.

 

However Germany’s four transmission system operators (TSO) estimate there could be a shortfall of 5.5 gigawatts between peak power demand and reliable capacity in 2021, which equates to the supply of electricity to 13-14 million people, and that’s before factoring in the bulk of coal plant closures.

 

Altmaier’s position is supported by environmental campaigners who say some energy producers were playing up the threat of blackouts to protect their own interests.

 

“Their motive is obvious,” said Green lawmaker and energy expert Oliver Krischer. “They want to build up pressure to receive payments for capacities which otherwise would have no chance to come to play in the market.”

 

Some utilities have asked for compensation for the coal exit plan, with RWE, Germany’s largest electricity producer, wanting up to 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) per GW to soften the financial hit of plant closures.

 

Regardless of who may be right or wrong, German manufacturers say they are worried about the prospect of black-outs or even short outages. They say they can’t afford to lose secure flows of electricity, nor can they survive higher network handling costs that could accompany more unreliable renewables.

 

“The early exit from coal-to-power generation fills us with great concern,” Philipp Schlueter, chairman of Trimet, operator of three aluminum plants in North Rhine-Westphalia state, told Reuters.

 

“Our aluminum plants need non-stop supply of power at competitive prices and a stable power grid at all times.”

 

Aluminum maker Hydro Aluminum Rolled Products in Grevenbroich, in the same western German state, said that plants should only be closed once alternatives were in place.

 

“As an energy-intensive industry, we can only go without conventional energy once renewables are in a position to offer reliable supply,” managing director Volker Backs told Reuters.

 

North Rhine-Westphalia, also home to other big corporates like E.ON, RWE, Thyssenkrupp and Bayer, accounts for a third of German gross domestic product.

 

Grid operator Amprion, which operates high voltage lines mainly in that state, says the region will have to rely on power imports from the early 2020s at the latest.

 

“Secure capacity goes down continuously until 2020 and there could be a deficit even before all nuclear reactors leave the grid,” CEO Klaus Kleinekorte told Reuters.

 

Steelmaker and chemicals industry lobbies also voiced concerns. Wacker Chemie’s CEO has signaled the company could shift some operations overseas, saying he saw more favorable conditions in the United States.

 

BIG QUESTION FOR EUROPE

 

The problem takes on a European dimension as much of the bloc is following a trend of reducing reliance on thermal plants and switching to renewables.

 

Over the next 10 years, coal-fired and nuclear power plants with a total capacity of around 100 GW will be shut down in Europe, equivalent to Germany’s thermal power capacity alone, according to grid operator data.

 

To counter this, hundreds of gigawatts of offshore wind are planned to line European coastlines by the end of next decade, according to the EU’s green expansion plans.

 

Most industry experts agree the transition is needed to combat climate change, and that within 10 or 15 years there will be substantial renewable generation to provide reliable cover for the continent, on the road to carbon neutrality by 2050.

 

However, they say, a big question remains: how will Europe struggle through until this happens, keeping the lights on and its businesses competitive? Countries in similar positions can’t all import from each other.

 

Germany’s rapid and radical shift makes the scenario more precarious.

 

German output accounts for around 20% of the European Union’s electricity, with France another 17%, according to figures from Eurostat, the EU statistics office.

 

Germany is a net exporter to Austria, Switzerland and Poland and also the Netherlands, which sends some of the power onwards to Britain and Belgium. Thus, if Germany alone was to stop reliably producing surpluses, several parts of the continent could see power shortfalls - and outages - as a consequence.

 

There have already been warning signs this year as Germany’s net exports in the first half of 2019 fell by 14%. The situation has been exacerbated by a European heatwave that drove demand in France to near record levels in June, curbing its export availability.

 

Fabian Joas, energy expert at Berlin think-tank Agora, said it would be a difficult road for most of Europe to meet its goal of abandoning conventional energy in coming decades.

 

“But we will be able in the long run to operate a power system based nearly fully on renewables,” he added. “Everyone who understands the matter agrees on that.”

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-07-18

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[fxe1200]

Great Britain, the Netherlands, France, Italy Spain are blessed with long coastlines, the latter with an abundance of sun. These countries should be able to produce sufficient renewable energy in a relative short amount of time, thus being less or not any more dependent on Germany's electrical power.

 

[Ozman52]

5 minutes ago, fxe1200 said:

Great Britain, the Netherlands, France, Italy Spain are blessed with long coastlines, the latter with an abundance of sun. These countries should be able to produce sufficient renewable energy in a relative short amount of time, thus being less or not any more dependent on Germany's electrical power.

 

Which shows a basic misunderstanding of the problem. It's not hard to generate renewable energy, but it is very difficult to maintain reliable supply when it is needed from unreliable inputs.

[attento]

The largest foreign supplier to UK is France and the  French production is mainly Nuclear and Hydro, so is low carbon intensity.   Germany has been and is still using 'dirty' coal (lignite) although it is planned to phase out.   The German phasing out of coal and nuclear is causing concern for the continuity of  electricity supply within the relatively short time frame that is proposed.

[KhunBENQ]

Germany does a good job to motivate people saving energy.

Price per unit among the highest in the world, approaching 0.3 Euro per unit (~0.34 USD, 0.27 GBP, 10.4 THB).

So our last bill would not be 2100 Baht but more like 5200 Baht.

 

Three days in June the German "TSO"s fought hard to keep frequency stable and paid enormous prices for imports.

[Ulic]

Germany's dirty little secret, they have lots of coal and they burn lots of coal. The green energy is just a veneer. They will be burning lots over the next 20 years. No need to worry about running out of power.

[bristolboy]

14 minutes ago, Ulic said:

Germany's dirty little secret, they have lots of coal and they burn lots of coal. The green energy is just a veneer. They will be burning lots over the next 20 years. No need to worry about running out of power.

Just a veneer, hug?

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts

[KhunBENQ]

24 minutes ago, Ulic said:

Germany's dirty little secret, they have lots of coal and they burn lots of coal.

Brown coal and hard coal make up for 26% total. It that is what you mean with "lots".

https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019&month=6

 

Worldwide there are plans (or under construction) for 1200 new coal fired plants.

I think I don't have to name one of the biggest supporters of coal fired plants?

 

But Germany saves the world climate.

 

[Jai Dee]

A troll post has been reported/removed.

[ExpatOilWorker]

39 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Just a veneer, hug?

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts

Pretty graph, but my guess it is nominal or name plate capacity. Nuclear, coal and gas pretty much run at 100%, while solar and wind are 20% at best.

A graph of the Gwh generated would look much different.

[bristolboy]

6 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Pretty graph, but my guess it is nominal or name plate capacity. Nuclear, coal and gas pretty much run at 100%, while solar and wind are 20% at best.

A graph of the Gwh generated would look much different.

Sure about that?

https://qz.com/1515608/electricity-from-renewables-topped-coal-in-germany-for-first-time-in-2018/

https://www.dw.com/en/german-renewables-deliver-more-electricity-than-coal-and-nuclear-power-for-the-first-time/a-49606644-0

[ExpatOilWorker]

12 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Sure about that?

https://qz.com/1515608/electricity-from-renewables-topped-coal-in-germany-for-first-time-in-2018/

Well done to the Germans. Looks like wind is the big winner here.

 

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/News/Stromerzeugung_2018_2_en.pdf

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

56 minutes ago, KhunBENQ said:

Brown coal and hard coal make up for 26% total. It that is what you mean with "lots".

https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019&month=6

 

Worldwide there are plans (or under construction) for 1200 new coal fired plants.

I think I don't have to name one of the biggest supporters of coal fired plants?

 

But Germany saves the world climate.

 

It is worth mention, that the above graph is for JUNE 2019, so solar gets a unfair high share.

Try the same for January and solar is close to zero.

[bristolboy]

11 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

It is worth mention, that the above graph is for JUNE 2019, so solar gets a unfair high share.

Try the same for January and solar is close to zero.

And try the same for wind and you'll find that it increases in January. And lots more wind power is being built.

[grumpy 4680]

    Just goes to prove the bigger problem, if we all have to end up with electric cars, and then a new problem 20 years later, as all these billions of batteries become naff, somehow, they will have to be safely disposed of. an even bigger problem than producing enough power required for the next 20 years.

[Ozman52]

18 hours ago, bristolboy said:

Sure about that?

https://qz.com/1515608/electricity-from-renewables-topped-coal-in-germany-for-first-time-in-2018/

https://www.dw.com/en/german-renewables-deliver-more-electricity-than-coal-and-nuclear-power-for-the-first-time/a-49606644-0

He's certainly right about solar. Your graph shows solar plate capacity at 45/210 GW, ~21% of capacity. But your link says that solar produced 8.4% of generation in 2018.

 

Plate capacity in GW is a misleading indication, and the one that is almost used by renewable advocates. What is actually produced is measured in GWh or TWh.

 

What is also rarely mentioned is that because of the unreliability of renewables, consumers pay for other generators to stay online at zero or low output to cover what can be very large and rapid drops in renewable generation. This is far from a free service. Nor is solar generation FREE, the companies generating it charge for the energy supplied, often at subsidised higher rates.

[bristolboy]

8 hours ago, Ozman52 said:

He's certainly right about solar. Your graph shows solar plate capacity at 45/210 GW, ~21% of capacity. But your link says that solar produced 8.4% of generation in 2018.

 

Plate capacity in GW is a misleading indication, and the one that is almost used by renewable advocates. What is actually produced is measured in GWh or TWh.

 

What is also rarely mentioned is that because of the unreliability of renewables, consumers pay for other generators to stay online at zero or low output to cover what can be very large and rapid drops in renewable generation. This is far from a free service. Nor is solar generation FREE, the companies generating it charge for the energy supplied, often at subsidised higher rates.

The point being, though, that wind is strongest when solar is weakest and vice versa. So they complement each other.

As for the unreliability of renewables, not so much.

Renewable Energy Can Provide 80 Percent of U.S. Electricity by 2050

A comprehensive study by the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) shows that the U.S. can generate most of its electricity from renewable energy by 2050.

The Renewable Electricity Futures Study found that an 80 percent renewables future is feasible with currently available technologies, including wind turbines, solar photovoltaics, concentrating solar power, biopower, geothermal, and hydropower.

The study also demonstrates that a high renewables scenario can meet electricity demand across the country every hour of every day, year-round.

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/smart-energy-solutions/increase-renewables/renewable-energy-80-percent-us-electricity.html

And this study posits using only technologies that are currently available.

But big advances in solar, wind, and storage consistently become reality way ahead of predictions . 

For instance on the crucial issue of storage there's this:

https://xnrgi.com/

https://xnrgi.com/products/

It's a battery that has   1.5 times the storage capacity of Tesla's bestt lithium battery, In 2021 a new model will be released with o 2.5 times the capacity.

There's lots of other storage systems out there. It's a very vibrant market.

As for the subsidized rates, not so much anymore. The new producers don't need it. In fact there's a big windfarm being built in Dutch waters and the builders are actually paying rent to the Dutch government. Lazard Freres comes out with a yearly energy report and wind and solar are easily beating coal in price and are now pushing gas out of peaker plants. Also becoming competitive with regular gas fired plants. Not long ago it was expected that gas would be a transitional fuel for at least a generation. Not so much anymore.

[Ozman52]

4 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

There's lots of other storage systems out there. It's a very vibrant market.

Really? What are they?

 

6 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

The point being, though, that wind is strongest when solar is weakest and vice versa. So they complement each other.

This seems to be based on your observation that there is more wind in winter. What happens on those really cold winter nights when there is no wind at all? Even more of a problem is what happens when it is blowing in the acceptable range on a sunny summer's day? Which generator gets disconnected because of over-generation?

[MaxYakov]

1 hour ago, Ozman52 said:

Really? What are they?

 

This seems to be based on your observation that there is more wind in winter. What happens on those really cold winter nights when there is no wind at all? Even more of a problem is what happens when it is blowing in the acceptable range on a sunny summer's day? Which generator gets disconnected because of over-generation?

That's easy The one that fries or chops-up the most birds.