Chance of no-deal Brexit rises as Johnson leads Hunt - Reuters poll

[webfact]

Chance of no-deal Brexit rises as Johnson leads Hunt - Reuters poll

By Jonathan Cable

 

Boris Johnson, a leadership candidate for Britain's Conservative Party, speaks during a hustings event in London, Britain July 17, 2019. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The chance that Britain will leave the European Union without a deal is the highest since October 2017, economists polled by Reuters say, as arch-Brexiteer Boris Johnson looks set to take over as prime minister next week.

 

Johnson was the face of the 2016 campaign to quit the EU and has said he would be willing to leave on Oct. 31 without a deal. The median forecast of that happening was 30% in the July 15-18 poll, up from 25% last month and 15% in May.

 

"The likelihood of a Boris Johnson premiership and the rhetoric which has surfaced during the campaign suggests that this outcome is more likely than we previously believed," said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

 

With Jeremy Hunt, Johnson's rival for the premiership, also keen to display his credentials as a hard Brexiteer, sterling <GBP=> has plunged this week to lows not seen in over two years as investors price in the growing risk of a disorderly Brexit.

 

Lawmakers voted on Thursday to make it harder for the next prime minister to try to force a no-deal Brexit, giving some support to sterling, and a strong majority of economists polled still think the two sides will eventually settle on a free-trade deal, as they have since late 2016, when Reuters first started asking the question.

 

But in second place this month was the more extreme option of leaving without a deal and trading under World Trade Organization rules.

 

The third most likely outcome was the other compromise option of Britain remaining a member of the European Economic Area, paying into the EU budget to maintain access to the single market yet having no say over policy.

 

Fourth place went to cancelling Brexit.

 

HOLD IT

As the chance of a hard Brexit has increased, so has the likelihood of a recession. The median forecast for one in the coming year was 30% and of one in the next two years was 35%, up from 25% and 30% respectively in June's poll.

 

Growth forecasts remained modest, with the economy expected to expand 0.3-0.4% per quarter through to the end of next year.

 

Those forecasts were either left unchanged or lowered, so what has shifted are expectations about what the Bank of England will do with interest rates.

 

No change is now expected to the bank rate, which has sat at 0.75% for nearly a year, until 2021 at the earliest. In June's poll, a 25 basis point hike was expected in the third quarter of next year.

 

"While the UK consumer price inflation backdrop appears relatively benign, the fact that wage growth is holding up suggests it's too early to be thinking about rate cuts," said James Smith at ING.

 

"But the increasing uncertainty surrounding Brexit suggests policy tightening is equally unlikely this year."

 

Only 27 of 76 economists polled now expect an increase to Bank Rate before the end of next year, compared to 36 of 69 last month. On the flip side, nine of 76 are expecting a cut by end-2020 compared to five of 69 in June.

 

The Royal Bank of Canada, a primary dealer of British government bonds, changed its call earlier this month and said the BoE would be forced to cut interest rates this year because of rising risks to Britain from Brexit and global trade tensions.

 

"We don't necessarily share the view that the UK economy will see a substantial pick-up in growth even in a smooth Brexit," RBC economists Peter Schaffrik and Cathal Kennedy said in a note to clients.

 

Monetary Policy Committee member Gertjan Vlieghe said in a speech at Thomson Reuters last week that the Bank might need to cut interest rates almost to zero after a no-deal Brexit.

 

That shift in sentiment echoes expectations for other major central banks. The European Central Bank is likely to cut its deposit rate later this year and there are widespread expectations the United States Federal Reserve will cut at its meeting this month.

 

But unlike its peers, the BoE has less to worry about when focussing on its mandate for price stability.

 

The slump in sterling has driven up prices in import-reliant Britain and the economists who were polled expected inflation to hover around the Bank's target for the next three years at least, the poll found.

 

(Polling by Sujith Pai and Sumanto Mondal; Editing by Ross Finley and Kevin Liffey)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-07-19

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[BobBKK]

Personally I think an election should be mandatory if the PM changes. Now we will have 160,000 Tories deciding who is PM.

Yes, I know the rules, MPs choose but it's a fact many of the electorate decide at a GE based on the leader who will become PM.

[Phuketshrew]

1 hour ago, BobBKK said:

Now we will have 160,000 Tories deciding who is PM.

It could be worse - could be 250 Senators instead ....

[fishtank]

Parliament will find a way to stop this idiot from leading the UK to ruin.

They have already made it a lot more difficult for him to close down parliament while he pushes through his extreme agenda.

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, fishtank said:

Parliament will find a way to stop this idiot from leading the UK to ruin.

They have already made it a lot more difficult for him to close down parliament while he pushes through his extreme agenda.

 

Did you see his latest gaff on TV yesterday? Claiming the EU bureaucracy was affecting kippers sent by mail order from the Isle of Man? He got that wrong - no such thing. It's a UK regulation!

 

Complete prat and jerk who talks nonsense and get's away with it. 

 

But hey, the Brexiters say he's fantastic and will make Britain great again. And they are all well known for their sage wise intellects.

[roquefort]

47 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

Complete prat and jerk who talks nonsense and get's away with it. 

 

That description would cover 95% of the UK political class (with JC out in front by a country mile)

[natway09]

Now we have the US & the UK being run by clowns

I despair but a word of advice stay away from sterling for 10 years

[sawadee1947]

15 minutes ago, natway09 said:

Now we have the US & the UK being run by clowns

...and Thailand got it's clowns already

[beautifulthailand99]

Trump looks like a class act with a plan (albeit it one I vigorously hate) compared to this privileged ,lying,mendacious sack of malignant lard. Who never misses a chance to grandstand on other's achievements (Olympics) or distance himself from crackpot projects (Garden Bridge). The only thing he cares about is himself. And that's it screw his many wives , mistresses and children. I wouldn't pea on him if he was on fire. Hope his current 31 year old squeeze gives him a good hiding before kicking him out. 

[Loiner]

Nice to see the Remainers getting behind the new PM. Or should that be beside themselves. No Deal here we come.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, Loiner said:

Nice to see the Remainers getting behind the new PM. Or should that be beside themselves. No Deal here we come.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

Not so quick Hammond-man and his acolytes are coming to the dump Johnson camp - Deal eventually or a People's Vote here we come.... even the Torygraph thinks so.

 

 

[Jip99]

2 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Trump looks like a class act with a plan (albeit it one I vigorously hate) compared to this privileged ,lying,mendacious sack of malignant lard. Who never misses a chance to grandstand on other's achievements (Olympics) or distance himself from crackpot projects (Garden Bridge). The only thing he cares about is himself. And that's it screw his many wives , mistresses and children. I wouldn't pea on him if he was on fire. Hope his current 31 year old squeeze gives him a good hiding before kicking him out. 

 

 

Yep, he certainly grandstanded as Mayor of London.

[baboon]

9 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Did you see his latest gaff on TV yesterday? Claiming the EU bureaucracy was affecting kippers sent by mail order from the Isle of Man? He got that wrong - no such thing. It's a UK regulation!

 

Complete prat and jerk who talks nonsense and get's away with it. 

 

But hey, the Brexiters say he's fantastic and will make Britain great again. And they are all well known for their sage wise intellects.

Enough. We are ruined. I am going back to the UK soon while I have something to go back to.

The nasty side of me hopes that the Brexiteer pensioners on here die slow, painful and miserable financial deaths as Thailand turns the screws. It's what they voted for.

And they won't be returning to a compassionate UK happy to have them back...

[tebee]

The germans have the right opinion of us I think

 

[beautifulthailand99]

If you ever wanted to know the full extent of Johnson's abhorrent nihilism and arrogance then this article is the hardest hitting yet on all the skeletons in his closet and his modus operandi. Never was a man less suited to be PM - here's just one of many juicy bits....If any of the ageing working class no-deal crazies here think he will do anything for them then they are crazier or probably more thicker than I ever imagined. 

 

Trump and Johnson are both serial philanderers. According to Purnell, Johnson once explained to another man that, though married, he had to have a lot of affairs because he was “literally bursting with spunk.” But—and this is why his sexual life is relevant to his political prospects—these affairs were all conquest and no consequence. Johnson refused to pay the medical bills when his lover Petronella Wyatt had an abortion. The boyfriend of another of his lovers was left to pay the medical bills when she gave birth to what was almost certainly Johnson’s child. As it is with sex, so with political power—the conquest of 10 Downing Street is Johnson’s desire; the consequences of what he might do there are very much a secondary consideration.

 

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/08/15/boris-johnson-ham-of-fate/

[sunnyboy2018]

8 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Trump looks like a class act with a plan (albeit it one I vigorously hate) compared to this privileged ,lying,mendacious sack of malignant lard. Who never misses a chance to grandstand on other's achievements (Olympics) or distance himself from crackpot projects (Garden Bridge). The only thing he cares about is himself. And that's it screw his many wives , mistresses and children. I wouldn't pea on him if he was on fire. Hope his current 31 year old squeeze gives him a good hiding before kicking him out. 

The garden bridge would have been beautiful. 

[beautifulthailand99]

3 hours ago, baboon said:

Enough. We are ruined. I am going back to the UK soon while I have something to go back to.

The nasty side of me hopes that the Brexiteer pensioners on here die slow, painful and miserable financial deaths as Thailand turns the screws. It's what they voted for.

And they won't be returning to a compassionate UK happy to have them back...

I think you're right we are all the losers here - a lot of damage has been done to our reputation and it would appear the lunatics have taken over the asylum. Let's remember the good times though it wasn't so long ago ....when we celebrated everything that was a multi-cultural in can-do global force that was GREAT BRITAIN. Before the yobs , the hate the xenophobia , the anarchic nihilism of one great huge <deleted> was sent to the world from the regions that had been left behind. We feel your pain but enough is enough.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QL_uG2GSZo

 

 

 

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, baboon said:

Enough. We are ruined. I am going back to the UK soon while I have something to go back to.

The nasty side of me hopes that the Brexiteer pensioners on here die slow, painful and miserable financial deaths as Thailand turns the screws. It's what they voted for.

And they won't be returning to a compassionate UK happy to have them back...

And the best of British to you too.

[beautifulthailand99]

It's mostly the losing class that shout for Brexit the most and the Thailand contingent are / will feel the pain the most with the screws turned on 2 fronts. Maybe they should have husbanded their lives and finances with more care during their lives rather than blaming their dispossession on the EU in their dotage. Throughout this process the EU have shown their professionalism , sense of purpose unity and direction as they try to keep a friend on board or allow us to leave with dignity. You look at the million people's march and all the variety of nice , articulate , decent Brits and then the snarling, sloganeering , yobbish leavers on their day of rage in the capital and you have you ask yourself which Britain you are proud to belong to. 

 

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

16 minutes ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

The garden bridge would have been beautiful. 

Maybe but another jewel for London's Remaining Crown and another thorn for the leaving regions.... 

[beautifulthailand99]

3 hours ago, baboon said:

Enough. We are ruined. I am going back to the UK soon while I have something to go back to.

The nasty side of me hopes that the Brexiteer pensioners on here die slow, painful and miserable financial deaths as Thailand turns the screws. It's what they voted for.

And they won't be returning to a compassionate UK happy to have them back...

But they can't come back most are single old men eking out miserable lives on frozen pensions in an increasingly hostile Thailand with a rapidly declining pound. If they have burned their bridges back home with family and friends and let's face facts many of the expat refugees are like that then they will be homeless , bitter old sexpats homeless in two countries. Brexit was their last deluded hope for some final happiness in their lives seeing a Britain of their childhood (sans immigrants) appear as if like magic and like the drowning men that they are they remain clinging to the sinking life raft of misguided hope. If that goes there is nothing. Just a cold , uncaring universe with their end in sight looming up ahead. They would rather we all sink in their ship rather than reason prevail. Like the English beggar below hope is all they have left. They need help and love not hatred. 

 

https://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/15597302.a-ballad-of-blame-from-a-brexiteer-beggar/

 

“But now, now - England is looking after its own. Finally.”

This point of view represents everything I have spent a lifetime fighting, a fight that has been woven into the fabric of the post-Scottish Referendum age, a fight that must now continue as the mis-sold lies of the Brexiteers drag an increasingly unwilling dis-United Kingdom out of the European Union and into the virgin wilderness. But I was also acutely aware that this guy had been sleeping rough, living on his wits and had been shunned and ignored in the world’s fifth wealthiest country. Wouldn’t you feel overlooked? But to suggest that he suffered unduly because he was a white man, born and brought up in England just didn’t feel right. The contagion of blaming other people, the wrong people for society’s ills has become something of a national sport south of the border.

 

 

 

[Loiner]

Enough. We are ruined. I am going back to the UK soon while I have something to go back to.
The nasty side of me hopes that the Brexiteer pensioners on here die slow, painful and miserable financial deaths as Thailand turns the screws. It's what they voted for.
And they won't be returning to a compassionate UK happy to have them back...

Well off you go then. How is a Remainer going to reconcile returning back to a Brexited UK with the Remaining UK that they cherished? Not blaming your demob on the UK masses who voted for Brexit, without an ounce of interest in the fortunes of expats in foreign lands who didn’t budget for currency fluctuations? But wishing all manner of ills on other expat Brexiteers in Thailand for actions of the Thai government? Yeah that’s pretty nasty but typical for a Remainer.
Obviously not looking forward to a welcome from the UK DHSS yourself? Are you sure this will only be due to Brexit?

[Loiner]

But they can't come back most are single old men eking out miserable lives on frozen pensions in an increasingly hostile Thailand with a rapidly declining pound.

555 That’s a Remainer who is scurrying back to UK, not a Brexiteer! You may have described the Remainers accurately though.
Remainers are the ones who complain loudest about exchange rates. They didn’t plan properly and now find themselves in Thailand Soi Shit Street. Nothing to do with what’s best for the whole of UK and its citizens.

[baboon]

1 hour ago, Loiner said:

Well off you go then. How is a Remainer going to reconcile returning back to a Brexited UK with the Remaining UK that they cherished? Not blaming your demob on the UK masses who voted for Brexit, without an ounce of interest in the fortunes of expats in foreign lands who didn’t budget for currency fluctuations? But wishing all manner of ills on other expat Brexiteers in Thailand for actions of the Thai government? Yeah that’s pretty nasty but typical for a Remainer.
Obviously not looking forward to a welcome from the UK DHSS yourself? Are you sure this will only be due to Brexit?

That you still use the term 'DHSS' speaks volumes of just how in touch you are with contemporary Britain. The DHSS ceased to be in 1988.

[JAG]

14 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Trump looks like a class act with a plan (albeit it one I vigorously hate) compared to this privileged ,lying,mendacious sack of malignant lard. Who never misses a chance to grandstand on other's achievements (Olympics) or distance himself from crackpot projects (Garden Bridge). The only thing he cares about is himself. And that's it screw his many wives , mistresses and children. I wouldn't pea on him if he was on fire. Hope his current 31 year old squeeze gives him a good hiding before kicking him out. 

Not a fan then?

[superal]

Lets face it the deal offered to T. May was not acceptable and staying in the EU would be a better option . In her own words " No deal is better than a bad deal " but she must have a memory loss ailment .

The main disappointing fact to me is that out of all the other 27 countries there has been no supporters who have taken sides with the UK to criticise the EU council offer and also intransigence to renegotiate or compromise .  ( as far as I am aware )  . So none of our so called friends are prepared to back us in a fight only stand by behind a panel of non elected EU power egoists . 

No deal appears to be the only way out if the EU refuse to renegotiate . There are good grounds to reopen discussions as the UK has a new PM and the EU has had a new parliament election  but the EU are acting like a woman scorned . Who will blink first in this poker game ? 

 

[vogie]

6 minutes ago, superal said:

Lets face it the deal offered to T. May was not acceptable and staying in the EU would be a better option . In her own words " No deal is better than a bad deal " but she must have a memory loss ailment .

The main disappointing fact to me is that out of all the other 27 countries there has been no supporters who have taken sides with the UK to criticise the EU council offer and also intransigence to renegotiate or compromise .  ( as far as I am aware )  . So none of our so called friends are prepared to back us in a fight only stand by behind a panel of non elected EU power egoists . 

No deal appears to be the only way out if the EU refuse to renegotiate . There are good grounds to reopen discussions as the UK has a new PM and the EU has had a new parliament election  but the EU are acting like a woman scorned . Who will blink first in this poker game ? 

 

Some may be waiting to see how it goes with the UK leaving before deciding whether to leave the EU. I'm sure some are thinking about it, so far the UK are the only country to have the gumption to do anything about. A federal europe, no thanks, not for the UK.

 

[Jip99]

5 minutes ago, superal said:

Lets face it the deal offered to T. May was not acceptable and staying in the EU would be a better option . In her own words " No deal is better than a bad deal " but she must have a memory loss ailment .

The main disappointing fact to me is that out of all the other 27 countries there has been no supporters who have taken sides with the UK to criticise the EU council offer and also intransigence to renegotiate or compromise .  ( as far as I am aware )  . So none of our so called friends are prepared to back us in a fight only stand by behind a panel of non elected EU power egoists . 

No deal appears to be the only way out if the EU refuse to renegotiate . There are good grounds to reopen discussions as the UK has a new PM and the EU has had a new parliament election  but the EU are acting like a woman scorned . Who will blink first in this poker game ? 

 

 

 

+1

 

When all the fluff, BS and bluster is stripped away what you describe is exactly what we have.

 

It is also inexcusable that 3 years on we are no further forward. I blame May for that, although she was given little help from here or the EU. Whilst I am not a huge fan of Boris I do believe that he is better placed to get a renegotiated deal....... such renegotiation does not need to be that great. I don't think that 'no deal' is anyone's best interests but Boris is more likely to follow through if a better deal cannot be agreed.

[sammieuk1]

With this 3+ year old news are we leaving or not now you have wrecked my pound to shrapnel causing dark days in paradise ????

[david555]

(Here you go again …."Hotel California "...)

 

Brussels to offer Boris Johnson extension on no-deal Brexit

Exclusive: extra time could be used for renegotiation but will be billed as chance for no-deal planning

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/19/brussels-to-offer-boris-johnson-extension-on-no-deal-brexit

Brussels is preparing to offer Boris Johnson a no-deal Brexit extension beyond 31 October in an attempt to help him keep the Conservative party together and provide one more chance to strike an agreement deal.

The extra period of EU membership would be used for renegotiation but could be billed to Conservative Brexiters as an opportunity to prepare further for leaving without a deal.

“It will be described as a technical delay to save Boris from political embarrassment but then we will have time to find an agreement,” said one senior EU diplomat.

There is growing confidence among key member states that a no-deal Brexit can be avoided after the Commons voted this week to prevent the next prime minister, likely to be Johnson, from proroguing parliament.