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Fears that the condo bubble is about to burst in Bangkok - especially if foreigners pull out

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On 8/1/2019 at 2:25 PM, Tropposurfer said:

I ain’t no economist but my gut tells me a bubble is about to burst n the baht with it.

playing the devil's advocate...  imagine this scenario...  war breaks out with china going at it with the rest of the world over the south china sea.  what does that event pose for all the asean countries?  chaos. turmoil, PAIN.  people are going to run for cover.  banks empty of money.  airports are flooded with people leaving.  (think saigon in 1975 thereabouts.)    some smart people in thailand elite knows this.  so, what do they do?  they want everybody (meaning foreigners) to feel the pain too.  how do they do it?  convince them all to deposit 800k baht into the thai banks.  using bogus reason that bad foreigners are costing thailand all this money.  say 500k+ foreigners in the country.  500k x 800k baht = 500,000 + 000,000 = 500,000,000,000.  we could be talking in the arena of TRILLIONS of baht here.  that ALONE would explain why the baht is getting so strong.  so, war is still fresh.  what happens to all this money?  frankly, if it were me, I would tell the foreigners to go <deleted> themselves.  declare national security.  and pocket all the money.  get on a jet plane and fly off into the sunset with a big smile on my face. ..happens more often then you think.  you just don't know about it.  think about it some..  where did all the money that obama gathered up to resolve the real estate debacle of 2007 go?  according to what I read, there are no records that can trace it all.  next thing you know... obama buys some expensive properties.  with money from his salary when he was the president??  it wouldn't surprise me if all the presidents down to carter are in on this scam.

 

yeah.  I know.  I have a good imagination. lol.

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On 8/4/2019 at 9:00 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Surely if you have billions of illicit money, you don't go out shopping for the 25-35 m2 shoe boxes they are building in masses now. Dodgy money buys penthouses and fancy villas in Phuket and Samui.

The 1000 of empty condo are mostly bought by Thais as an investment trying to climb the wealth ladder. The problem is that they did so with borrowed money.

not BORROWED money.  money say 800k baht that all us foreigners are forced to deposit in a thai bank to stay here.  no bother to them since it's NOT money that they are losing.

 

I thought about this some.  was in the process of putting 800k baht in the bank.  now, maybe not.  thinking vietnam and the PI now.

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reading all the comments,  here about the property market bubble  , I brought condos in Sukhumvit 4  years ago  I have seen a good rent return and over 50 percent property value increase, i  wanted  to sell one have  two next to each other so put both up,  both rented  out at a  good rental  return ,more than 8 percent , had a buyer last week wanted both ,  but  I only wanted  to sell one , so fell through , and I pulled  them off the  market. I have  no problem getting tenant's, Thai  tenants, I in fact  because  of the  TM30 don't  want  anyone but  Thais  , in my  condos, I have Thai friends who  also have new  condos in Sukhumvit soi 81 and Sukhumvit soi 85 getting rents between 8,500 to 14,000 baht a month on condos that cost 950,000 baht to 1,400,000 baht each. these are Thai renters , only. And bubbles come and go unless you sell , in  a property crash you lose money , don't sell you don't loss. if  you own it why sell ,  ride it out ,look for bargains.

 

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On 8/1/2019 at 11:23 AM, Mikisteel said:

Who was about in 97?

 

What kind of bargains we talking about? If that property crash happened in bok does it spread nationwide?

I was here then. Baht went into the 80's/£ at one point.

Lots of planned construction work ( O&G, pipelines ) got cancelled. Don't think it had any effect on house condo prices, people just held on and waited.

Bar fines and 'connected' services prices went up, because expats were getting more baht.

Lots of baht had already gone out of Thailand previously at mid 40's/£ and came back at 70/80baht/£.

A certain few made many millions.

Lots of condo developments just stopped and none new started. Some of the remaining shells are still standing and some have been recently re-started. How they deal with all the rotting exposed re-bar in those I have no idea.

Edited by overherebc
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