Fears that the condo bubble is about to burst in Bangkok - especially if foreigners pull out

[TallGuyJohninBKK 25,578]

Thai real estate market predictions are about as cheap as the paper they're printed on, and about as reliable as the local weather forecasts from the TMD, which are invariably wrong.

 

I have no idea what's going to happen this year or next in the Thai real estate market. But I do know, an awful lot of the condo units being built in BKK are not owner-occupied, and these newer projects often are being built and sold at prices out of the rental or purchase reach of ordinary Thais.

 

In central BKK in a very expensive area near my home, there's a very nice and modern solo house (not a cookie cutter moo bahn style house) that's been sitting empty for most of the decade plus I've been familiar with the area. Has always had a "for rent" sign outside for years, but only actually been rented out for a few months to some Middle Easterners, and then they were gone. I think the owner is asking something in the neighborhood of 100,000 baht per month.  And so, whomever the owner is, basically has sat on an asset producing no income for the better part of a decade.  Some things, I just don't understand.

[Dcheech 351]

If you have parked 800K in a thai bank for Visa reasons. You can get panicky now, it's ok.

[StayinThailand2much 2,688]

No way a crash of the condo bubble is coming in 2019! The Chinese are still buying...

 

It will happen in two or three years, once the Chinese are tired of Thailand, or once they discover other, more worthwile places to invest.

[thirdleg 356]

22 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

Probably read up on the 1997 Asian financial crash.  Now Thailand has among the largest cash reserves in the world.

For a reason!! 

 

They can manipulate the baht with a lot of foreign reserves

 

 

 

[Matzzon 13,661]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

There are fears that a property crash is about to happen - especially if the Chinese pull out. 

That a property crasch and the economic bubble will burst, that is as certain as all the dumbnuts still walking the Earth.

However, that it would be out of the reason that the Chinese pull out is as far from the truth as humanly possible.

Have no fear. The Chinese invasion has only started. With already close to 1,5 billion people in their own country, the spaces to fit in more in the ever blooming baby-boom circus is starting to be very limited. They just need to continue steal more pieces of Thailand, the country they put their sights on.

[userabcd 954]

They have been predicting this for years and so far nothing has come of it.

 

In Thonglor and Ekkamai area there are several new buildings going up, all pushing the area property prices up.

 

When one looks at the existing condo buildings around at night, more than 50% of the lights are off and seem to be unoccupied.

 

Don't know who is buying into all these condos or where the money is coming from but one day something will give.

[thirdleg 356]

32 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thai real estate market predictions are about as cheap as the paper they're printed on, and about as reliable as the local weather forecasts from the TMD, which are invariably wrong.

 

I have no idea what's going to happen this year or next in the Thai real estate market. But I do know, an awful lot of the condo units being built in BKK are not owner-occupied, and these newer projects often are being built and sold at prices out of the rental or purchase reach of ordinary Thais.

 

In central BKK in a very expensive area near my home, there's a very nice and modern solo house (not a cookie cutter moo bahn style house) that's been sitting empty for most of the decade plus I've been familiar with the area. Has always had a "for rent" sign outside for years, but only actually been rented out for a few months to some Middle Easterners, and then they were gone. I think the owner is asking something in the neighborhood of 100,000 baht per month.  And so, whomever the owner is, basically has sat on an asset producing no income for the better part of a decade.  Some things, I just don't understand.

simple, it's money laundering. Buy the land with cash, buy the materials with cash and pay the workers with cash. Slowly milk out the laundered cash 

[PingRoundTheWorld 1,725]

Not a question of if - it's a question of when. Thailand is in for some seriously tough years ahead economically. Tourism bubble is already bursting, housing/condo bubble will follow. Strong baht and current political situation is killing everything from tourism to exports to investments. Until the political situation is resolved (IF it ever resolves) Thailand will continue to circle down the drain. Sad for ordinary Thai people, for sure.

[watcharacters 4,501]

1 hour ago, peter14 said:

am already  selling  2 of my  condo !!!  Any buyer  ?as  they  treat me shit  saying am not tourist when i come stay there.  

 

 

Can you post the details.

 

[userabcd 954]

6 minutes ago, thirdleg said:

simple, it's money laundering. Buy the land with cash, buy the materials with cash and pay the workers with cash. Slowly milk out the laundered cash 

Do you have evidence?

[PingRoundTheWorld 1,725]

22 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

The Chinese are still buying...

Are they though? Do you have data on this? There's been a massive decline in Chinese tourism over the past year, combined with the strong baht it's safe to assume there's been a decline in Chinese buying too.

[marcusarelus 6,897]

5 minutes ago, userabcd said:

Do you have evidence?

All of the homes I've bought in Thailand were for cash.  Nobody asked where it came from. 

[thirdleg 356]

41 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

The Chinese are doing and have been doing it for a couple of years to get their money out of China.  The Farang don't matter much in this market anymore.

Yeh because there are no controls from the Chinese government are there!!?? They are scared to death of capital flight and just keep hammering the restrictions on their citizens

China has 3 trillion and they are worried, not a poxy 2 billion

[marcusarelus 6,897]

1 minute ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Are they though? Do you have data on this? There's been a massive decline in Chinese tourism over the past year, combined with the strong baht it's safe to assume there's been a decline in Chinese buying too.

Don't think it has anything to do with the baht.  I don't think Chinese tourism and Chinese condo buying have anything to do with one another.  The Thai takes the Chinese money to the Chinese gold shop and exchanges it for Thai gold. 

[thirdleg 356]

4 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

Bank of Scotland can print pounds and the Chinese have been hit with multiple tariffs by Trump for currency manipulation.  Is my dream accurate?

jesus wept, China are manipulating down to make their exports cheaper, Thailand are making them more expensive