Fears that the condo bubble is about to burst in Bangkok - especially if foreigners pull out

[PingRoundTheWorld 1,725]

7 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

Smart foreigners have money and don't need to move out. They don't have immigration problems. 

Doesn't matter if you have money if you're under 50. I have money, on METV, and I'm worried every time I enter the country whether they're going to let me in or not. I'm in Philippines right now about to fly to BKK soon - I booked a ticket through Singapore, in the morning, just so I don't have to spend time in the detention center and can fly right back to Singapore same-day if they deny me. It's quite ridiculous that I have to plan my flights based on the possibility some rogue immigration officer may or may not have a bad day. Getting so tired of this shit I'm actually considering moving countries.

[Fairynuff 3,641]

I love this forum where everyone is an expert and everyone’s facts are really just their opinions 

[RBOP 1,100]

They keep saying there is a bubble year after year. 

[billd766 26,155]

2 hours ago, Mikisteel said:

Who was about in 97?

 

What kind of bargains we talking about? If that property crash happened in bok does it spread nationwide?

I was here in 1997 but I was working for a UK company so I didn't own a condo.

 

The baht in the letter half of 1997 collapsed from about 43 to over 90 per GBP. You could buy almost anything then for hard currency GBP, USD, EURO etc or use a credit card from an offshore bank and yes it spread nationwide in the tourist cities but less so in rural areas.

 

It was a great time to be in Thailand as a farang. Not so much now as it is som nam nah time for us.

[JonnyF 13,421]

1 hour ago, mike787 said:

If Thailand can improve their immigration and investment rules/laws towards foreigners would help.  As a foreigner, it would be financial suicide to buy property or condo's and brain wash myself into believing this is an investment.  Sure, anything is an investment to anyone.  

Let's define investment:  What is the "Return on Investment" (ROI) you expect to see?  If you cannot break inflation as determined by your country, or Thailand then you are losing money.  Then add to that fact, the time, effort, stress, and operational cost.  Now what is you ROI?  Some don't care, they just want it.  But if you are wise and informed, maybe the real estate investment is not so sexy...useless as lip stick on a pig.

I think it depends when you buy. I bought about 4 years and brought GBP over when the exchange rate was 55. The condo hasn't increased in price but I've lived rent free for 4 years which is almost 30% of the unit price back already and if I sold today for the same price that I bought it for I'd make 30% on the exchange rate. That's a pretty good ROI.

 

Plus I'm free to decorate it nicely without asking for permission or feeling like I'm refurbishing someone else's place and I have the security of knowing that I won't be kicked out when the landlords friend wants it or they get a better offer in terms of rent or decide to sell. It's a bit of stability, I have no regrets buying and wish I did it sooner after renting for 8 years.

[Tropposurfer 1,471]

I ain’t no economist but my gut tells me a bubble is about to burst n the baht with it.

[Phuket Pete 50]

Is anyone surprised ? If you treat your customers like shit they will take their money elsewhere. The Thai government are killing the goose that lays the golden egg by making you jump through hoops of fire and keeping the baht artificially high. Common sense is not common here boys. You should know that by now !

[kkith 5]

22 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Doesn't matter if you have money if you're under 50. I have money, on METV, and I'm worried every time I enter the country whether they're going to let me in or not. I'm in Philippines right now about to fly to BKK soon - I booked a ticket through Singapore, in the morning, just so I don't have to spend time in the detention center and can fly right back to Singapore same-day if they deny me. It's quite ridiculous that I have to plan my flights based on the possibility some rogue immigration officer may or may not have a bad day. Getting so tired of this shit I'm actually considering moving countries.

I'm pretty sure he was refering to the Thai Elite Visa.  More so when in the context of "money". 

[Danthai 135]

On an export buying trip in Chiangmai when baht went to 50 baht/1$

[justin case 2,296]

3 hours ago, peter14 said:

am already  selling  2 of my  condo !!!  Any buyer  ?as  they  treat me shit  saying am not tourist when i come stay there.  

we are all tourists ... nothing more, if you are here 1 day or 40 years

 

the right to spend all your money and go back ...

[spidermike007 36,957]

I do not want to sound like a doom and gloom forecaster, but I see the property market worldwide, nearing a rather substantial correction. Many markets are so overpriced, there is little to justify the current levels. In the US, many large markets are already starting to drop. Even a year ago, the top end of the NYC market went from a unit selling within 15 days, to the current average of 450 days. And that is with a 30% discount. So, things are about to change. I would imagine the Bangkok market will correct. But, probably not as much as the markets where financing is used heavily. 

[hansnl 5,927]

3 hours ago, geoffbezoz said:

Well the "experts " on this forum have been denying it for ages, mainly I suspect because they invested heavily and don't want to admit they will lose money. Also many of these self same "experts" have been predicting that the Thai economy is sound under the current regime and won't falter.

 

Well let's see once the Thai economy goes into free-fall due to the policies of the current puppet government including spending on military hardware yet wanting a 2020 fiscal budget with higher deficit forecasts,  exports suffering due to the policies of the last few years artificially ensuring that the baht is too strong, let's see how the many experts fair then.

 

It would appear that several voices within Thailand are now becoming realistic as to the Thai economy's weaknesses and the reliance upon foreign buyers, notably the Chinese, to artificially increase demand, thus pushing up condo prices, so all I would ask is ;  Where are the shops selling those rose tinted glasses that once worn eradicates all common sense and economic pointers ? Perhaps those so called "experts" on this forum could advise where they bought their own from

 

 

You seem to forget in your misguided rant against the current government that it all started to build up in around 2000, and got not much to do with the current government but mostly with a group in Thailand hellbent on money only and gambling heavily.

[MartinBKK 135]

Not allowing someone to enter who has the METV is pretty inexcusable imo. Are there any reports of this? I have heard stories of people being denied entry on a SETV (happened to a good friend even though he had plenty funds) but not the METV. The requirements for this visa are quite stringent. In fact, i was unable to meet them myself as i am under 50 and retired (no letter of employment). In London, you need a letter of employment or tax return if self employed, a bank statement showing GBP 5000, proof of accomodation in Thailand and a return ticket. With these requirements i really cannot understand how one could be denied entry.

[ThomasThBKK 4,970]

9 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I do not want to sound like a doom and gloom forecaster, but I see the property market worldwide, nearing a rather substantial correction. Many markets are so overpriced, there is little to justify the current levels. In the US, many large markets are already starting to drop. Even a year ago, the top end of the NYC market went from a unit selling within 15 days, to the current average of 450 days. And that is with a 30% discount. So, things are about to change. I would imagine the Bangkok market will correct. But, probably not as much as the markets where financing is used heavily. 

I think for thai condos most are financed, it's only foreigners here buying with cash as we can barely get a loan.

All my landlords over the years used my rental income to pay off their mortgage afaik.

 

[Dnyy 246]

3 hours ago, Metapod said:

Hoping for a crash so that I can buy-in

Same here.