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Fears that the condo bubble is about to burst in Bangkok - especially if foreigners pull out

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5 hours ago, Mikisteel said:

Who was about in 97?

 

Ever heard of the term "Fire Sale"

The cause was not from the glut of condos though. There was a financial adjustment that caused overall prices for just about everything to fall. The Baht was devalued to stimulate the economy and speculators tried their best to bet against the Banks. I honestly saw a guy with a briefcase full of cash at a money exchange on Sukhumvit .    

http://www.columbia.edu/cu/thai/html/financial97_98.html

https://www.nytimes.com/1997/07/03/business/the-thai-gamble-devaluing-currency-to-revive-economy.html

Personally I did not buy a condo at that time but the purchases I made in other goods sometimes approached 40% to 50% in discounts compared to previous prices.

 

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3 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Probably read up on the 1997 Asian financial crash.  Now Thailand has among the largest cash reserves in the world.

And how did Thailand get the large cash reserve?  Buy jacking interest rates, and sucking in hot money.  Very corrupt.  Meanwhile, tourism and exports will rot away with an overpriced Baht.  And we don't want to hear about Baht stability with gold.  Baht is overpriced compared to all other SE Asian currencies.

Edited by Isaan sailor
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1 hour ago, kkith said:

I'm pretty sure he was refering to the Thai Elite Visa.  More so when in the context of "money". 

The word "smart" was also mentioned. Smart people use their money for investments or pleasure, not buying a severely overpriced tourist visa. Especially not with the current political climate and uncertainty. Who knows what will happen in 2 years, let alone 5.

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1 hour ago, hansnl said:

You seem to forget in your misguided rant against the current government that it all started to build up in around 2000, and got not much to do with the current government but mostly with a group in Thailand hellbent on money only and gambling heavily.

Well apart from your nonsense post,  where did you buy those rose tinted glasses I asked about in the post you were replying to ? 😉

Edited by geoffbezoz

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55 minutes ago, MartinBKK said:

Not allowing someone to enter who has the METV is pretty inexcusable imo. Are there any reports of this?

Sadly, yes. For example:

 

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4 hours ago, geoffbezoz said:

Well the "experts " on this forum have been denying it for ages, mainly I suspect because they invested heavily and don't want to admit they will lose money. Also many of these self same "experts" have been predicting that the Thai economy is sound under the current regime and won't falter.

 

Well let's see once the Thai economy goes into free-fall due to the policies of the current puppet government including spending on military hardware yet wanting a 2020 fiscal budget with higher deficit forecasts,  exports suffering due to the policies of the last few years artificially ensuring that the baht is too strong, let's see how the many experts fair then.

 

It would appear that several voices within Thailand are now becoming realistic as to the Thai economy's weaknesses and the reliance upon foreign buyers, notably the Chinese, to artificially increase demand, thus pushing up condo prices, so all I would ask is ;  Where are the shops selling those rose tinted glasses that once worn eradicates all common sense and economic pointers ? Perhaps those so called "experts" on this forum could advise where they bought their own from 😉

 

 

Realying in Chinese investment... This is the most interesting part. What is your prediction? Will the Chinese economy continue to grow or will it crash?

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4 hours ago, Metapod said:

Hoping for a crash so that I can buy-in

I fear most property would be of substandard quality. Personally I would be very careful buying here. 

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2 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

I love this forum where everyone is an expert and everyone’s facts are really just their opinions 

Well, you know what they say about opinions ...

 

Opinions are like @ssh0les. Everybody has one and most of them stink.

Edited by wolf81
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Hmm... this wouldn’t be a surprise(except to Thais it would appear. TIT)

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1 hour ago, Suradit69 said:

The 97 financial mess began in Thailand when the baht had to be allowed to float because net  foreign currency reserves were essentially nonexistent .  The baht fell dramatically and the financial crisis spread throughout Asia and impacted western countries as well.

 

while property values fell, that was a consequence , not a direct cause. At that time the quality of condos wasn't as bad as it has since become.

 

i was able to buy a reasonably priced condo in 1999 in a building that was fairly well built and maintained in a good location made cheap by the high baht to dollar exchange rate, not so much because of panic selling in baht. Sold that condo almost 20 years later for more in baht terms and even more in dollar terms because of the baht strength.

 

Thai property owners are less likely to cut prices dramatically in a hysterical reaction like over extended Americans did 2007-2008.

 

Certainly not an auspicious time to buy a condo now in Thailand, but it's never a good time to buy a poorly constructed condo in a largely empty building in an unappealing location.

The 1997 financial crisis started because the baht was pegged to the dollar and buy floating the baht they got out of the crisis.  Exactly the opposite as you have imagined.  International loan companies came to Thailands aid after the baht was floated.  Who told you it was the reverse? 

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Than check Pattaya even worse !!!!!

This trend started c:a 5 years ago and worse it will bee !!!!!!!

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2 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

Doesn't matter if you have money if you're under 50. I have money, on METV, and I'm worried every time I enter the country whether they're going to let me in or not. I'm in Philippines right now about to fly to BKK soon - I booked a ticket through Singapore, in the morning, just so I don't have to spend time in the detention center and can fly right back to Singapore same-day if they deny me. It's quite ridiculous that I have to plan my flights based on the possibility some rogue immigration officer may or may not have a bad day. Getting so tired of this shit I'm actually considering moving countries.

If you have money, you get an investment visa or elite visa. 

You are considering moving countries, so you live here. Do you work here?

Edited by FritsSikkink

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