Scots favour independence from United Kingdom, Ashcroft poll shows

[NanLaew]

16 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

By how many percent would Yes need to be ahead before you would accept the will of the majority?

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Would that be the percent per semi-annual referendum or the more reasonable measure of the 'once in a generation' referendum?

 

Anyway what has changed here? The UK leaves the EU this year, dragging Scotland kicking and screaming with it... twas ever thus.

 

Fast forward a year or two and the Jockininny's get their referendum and finally get the 'right' percentages to leave the Union. That leaving takes maybe 18 months minimum to implement. Unless there's legal challenges and appeals thereof in which it will take another 18 months.

 

Then, bunnet in hand, the new Scottish leadership (it certainly won't be the incumbent) goes to Strasbourg (or Brussels or wherever) to beg to rejoin the EU. This is the EU that has already lost the UK, Italy and Spain and is in such disarray that even the French and Germans can't agree to disagree any more.

 

The thing that saddens me most is due to this perpetual, home-grown existential angst, the once great Scottish international football team will never, ever get a chance to reprise their stellar, regular (OK... also ran) appearances at World Cup Finals. Whole generations of the Tartan Army will wander the planet, never having a real reason to be pished an' happy in defeat while thoosans o' miles frae hame.

[Basil B]

5 hours ago, blazes said:

Bye bye Jocks.  Have fun trying to sell your natural gas in the world market...

 

Also, the exit of the Macs would be a bonus for all English speakers everywhere, since most of us proper speakers of the language can't understand a single blind word they utter.

 

 

Some of the best speakers seem to come from Scotland... TV presenters and politicians. 

 

I am English through and through, though my grandfather was born in Scotland so maybe able to get dual nationality. ????

[RuamRudy]

Some of the best speakers seem to come from Scotland... TV presenters and politicians. 
 
I am English through and through my grandfather was born in Scotland so maybe able to get dual nationality. [emoji41]

I must admit, when, at 17, I moved from the west coast to Aberdeen, i struggled for a long time to understand the locals.

If you are willing to give it a try, the FM has a message for you.



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[sandyf]

17 hours ago, smedly said:

First - they had the vote already

- they are not voting for independence, they will be run from Brussels 

- they need to at least try 5 years of Brexit before even considering another vote

- SNP are not being honest when it comes to trade - jobs and share of national Dept

- Scotland will pay in the region of 5 billion a year (could be more) for at least 10 years to repay their share of UK debt - they just can't just walk away

- Enjoy the euro, you will not be allowed to join the EU without accepting the currency which provides Brussels with total control

- There may not be an EU to join in 5 years time   "two speed Europe" effectively Germany and France leave abandoning the other 25 +Scotland 

Hypocrite.

You are quite prepared for the UK to leave the EU without any regard for the consequences and then come up with some BS argument why Scotland cannot leave the UK.

[FritsSikkink]

17 hours ago, smedly said:

First - they had the vote already

- they are not voting for independence, they will be run from Brussels 

- they need to at least try 5 years of Brexit before even considering another vote

- SNP are not being honest when it comes to trade - jobs and share of national Dept

- Scotland will pay in the region of 5 billion a year (could be more) for at least 10 years to repay their share of UK debt - they just can't just walk away

- Enjoy the euro, you will not be allowed to join the EU without accepting the currency which provides Brussels with total control

- There may not be an EU to join in 5 years time   "two speed Europe" effectively Germany and France leave abandoning the other 25 +Scotland 

They had the vote based on promises by the UK which all have been broken. Like the UK can get out of the European union, Scotland can get out of the UK union. They don't need permission to do so.

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

And of course a hard brexit followed by Scottish independence would result in a hard border between Scotland and England - that should be interesting.

A challenge indeed, but at least not so long and tortuous as the NI border, and no religious wars to be kept at bay either, we keep our religious nutters like the "Wee free" and the closed brethren, in obscure corners of the country and well away from the borders.

 

The bottom line here is that the Union is now broken, and like a broken vase it can't be re-assembled. Referendums apart it is already a lost cause in Scottish hearts, and that will only get more pronounced. Like Brexit the residual Union loving old white males and females, are dying out, and the young are overwhelmingly in favor of independence. 

 

In years to come it is possible that people will look back (Those of us still here), and see the defense of the Union, and Brexit as the last fleeting attempt by a sad old minority to stop progress so they can live in the world as they knew it. 

 

Progress bows to no one, and takes no prisoners, we will all be history one day, and this period will be recorded in history as the time Britain lost it's marbles. People all over the world will study it, and will weep with laughter as they see just how stupid we were.

[Mansell]

6 hours ago, blazes said:

Bye bye Jocks.  Have fun trying to sell your natural gas in the world market...

 

Also, the exit of the Macs would be a bonus for all English speakers everywhere, since most of us proper speakers of the language can't understand a single blind word they utter.

 

 

Yeah. Like it's really easy to understand a Geordie or Lancashire hot pot, or even a serious Liverpudlian.

I find it amusing how the English get all hot and bothered about us Scots getting our independence and immediately start all this doom and gloom stuff about Scotland's future.....I would worry about England's future, because right now it is a mess with England's version of Donald Trump in charge. All the nonsense he is spouting about Brexit and how he will get a great deal......the boy is dreaming. The EU will send him packing asap. How did we get in this Brexit mess? Mainly because the Tories without doing any research brought the country to a vote and were completely surprised by the result. And what do you have now a SNAFU. Good luck.

[jinners]

16 hours ago, baboon said:

Given the woeful Brexit mismanagement from London, were I a Scot I would be wanting to take my chances. Quite frankly I would cede "total control" to Brussels anyday. 

 

There may not be an EU in five years' time? I would rather gamble on there being no UK in five years' time. England may be keen to tie a bow around itself and sell itself to the American Republican Party, but don't expect the others in the UK to share that glee.

Opinions are like <deleted>, so the saying goes. Everybody has one and you are entitled to yours. But such a negative pessimistic point of view must surely be backed up with reasons and facts? The mismanagement by the terrible Mrs May is a given, but why would that mean that it's better to be with Brussels?

Your 2nd point makes no sense as the main player, Germany, ekes ever closer to recession while the UK, while having it's internal wranglings, is averaging over 1% growth and forecast more of the same. Limited but not recessionary. I wonder if you are yet another Democrat that is actually as anti democratic in it's view as it is besotted with Anti Trump derangement syndrome?

[jinners]

1 hour ago, Mansell said:

Yeah. Like it's really easy to understand a Geordie or Lancashire hot pot, or even a serious Liverpudlian.

I find it amusing how the English get all hot and bothered about us Scots getting our independence and immediately start all this doom and gloom stuff about Scotland's future.....I would worry about England's future, because right now it is a mess with England's version of Donald Trump in charge. All the nonsense he is spouting about Brexit and how he will get a great deal......the boy is dreaming. The EU will send him packing asap. How did we get in this Brexit mess? Mainly because the Tories without doing any research brought the country to a vote and were completely surprised by the result. And what do you have now a SNAFU. Good luck.

Your choice but there is no independence when Brussels is pulling the strings. Ask Ireland.

[RuamRudy]

Your choice but there is no independence when Brussels is pulling the strings. Ask Ireland.

Independence in the sense to which you are alluding is a fallacy. The world is more connected than ever, so unless you are prepared to accept the isolationism of Chad or North Korea, you must accept that your country will influence and be influenced by other countries to a lesser or greater degree.

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[AlexRich]

2 hours ago, Mansell said:

Yeah. Like it's really easy to understand a Geordie or Lancashire hot pot, or even a serious Liverpudlian.

I find it amusing how the English get all hot and bothered about us Scots getting our independence and immediately start all this doom and gloom stuff about Scotland's future.....I would worry about England's future, because right now it is a mess with England's version of Donald Trump in charge. All the nonsense he is spouting about Brexit and how he will get a great deal......the boy is dreaming. The EU will send him packing asap. How did we get in this Brexit mess? Mainly because the Tories without doing any research brought the country to a vote and were completely surprised by the result. And what do you have now a SNAFU. Good luck.

I was never in favour of Scottish independence, I liked being part of the UK within the EU. I can just about accept, although I don’t like it, leaving the EU with a sensible plan, but my red line is being dragged out on a no deal basis that no politician campaigned for, indeed all leave campaigners promised a “good deal”. The game changer for me is the inward investment that Scotland would gain from England leaving the EU ... Scotland would look very attractive to the growing economies of the Far East and America’s, looking for a base within the EU. It might work out really well.

 

 

 

[Burma Bill]

Quote:-

"46% of the 1,019 surveyed Scottish voters said they would vote for independence"

What about the other millions of Scottish voters??

[Nigel Garvie]

41 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

Quote:-

"46% of the 1,019 surveyed Scottish voters said they would vote for independence"

What about the other millions of Scottish voters??

Oh dear, it's a survey, that means that you don't ask millions of people. Surveys overall give quite a good indication, although they accept a margin of error, 3% in this case I believe. 1000 is a reasonable survey basis. The 46% is before eliminating the don't knows, so basically it means nothing on its own. Without the don't knows it is 52%.

[RuamRudy]

Quote:-
"46% of the 1,019 surveyed Scottish voters said they would vote for independence"
What about the other millions of Scottish voters??

There are very valid statistical models which show that a well executed poll of around 1000 people would be enough to show the mood of a country the size of the US. The analogy I liked best was that if the chef stirred his soup properly, he would only need to taste a spoonful to know how the whole pot tastes.

So that's enough to start with. Assuming that the UK is not dissolved through legal means alone, the other millions will get their chance during indyref2.

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[dabhand]

Interestingly this is the first Ashcroft Indyref poll for over six years, per the 'WhatScotlandThinks' website, when they issued two polls in May 2013. This being before IndyRef1 took place.

Polling companies invariably use different polling techniques and the effect of any inbuilt biases can only be judged over a number of polls and by comparison with the results of other polling companies. 

So, not much credence should be given to, currently, a one off poll. It provides a talking point, but no more than that.

 

This article maybe gives a bit more realism to the current scenario where, given the absolute shambles that is the ongoing Brexit chaos, the big surprise is that the Indy support is not higher. Indeed, perhaps a wee bit closer to the '60% for a sustained period of time' that some in the SNP were noting as being a necessary precursor before IndyRef2 should be sought.

 

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/snp/news/105747/analysis-real-shock-support-scottish-independence-isnt

[puipuitom]

On ‎8‎/‎5‎/‎2019 at 3:46 PM, smedly said:

First - they had the vote already

- a) they are not voting for independence, they will be run from Brussels 

- b) they need to at least try 5 years of Brexit before even considering another vote

- c) SNP are not being honest when it comes to trade - jobs and share of national Dept

- d) Scotland will pay in the region of 5 billion a year (could be more) for at least 10 years to repay their share of UK debt - they just can't just walk away

- e) Enjoy the euro, you will not be allowed to join the EU without accepting the currency which provides Brussels with total control

- f) There may not be an EU to join in 5 years time   "two speed Europe" effectively Germany and France leave abandoning the other 25 +Scotland 

Every time it is amazing, how little the British (brexiteers) know about the EU.

a) "Brussels" does not run anything at all. The EU, as a Union of nations, the Commitee, existing of the leaders of governments of the EU member states are running it. The Commission, a kind of ministers, with a Commissioner of each EU member state, is the second. The EU parliament, with members elected in each EU member state is nr 3. An independant Scotland would have a much lowder Scotish voice, then now being a colony of London. With 5,438 mln inhabitants, it would be larger as Ireland ( 4,784) and smaller as Denmark ( 5,748)

b) give me any reason,. law or so.

c) Of course Boris the Liar is without any bad spot.. 

d) Why ? The pay the UK for yeaqrs of stealing the Scotish oil revenues? The UK runs away under the same argumentation: f./. EU.

e) "Brussels" has ZERO to tell about the €uro. The €euro central bank is in Frankfurt, where every member state has its own governor in the Board. Now the Scots depend on the Londoners completely, with a day-by-day sinking GBP.

f) There is no reason to split the EU in two speeds. And if.. a Neuro ( Scandinavia, Germany, Austria, NL+ ? ?, time to read about the New Hanze Ligue ) versus a South Euro ( Mediterranen countries +? ). When the British were invited to join €uro, the GBP = € 1,70. Beginning 2016: € 1,40, and now.. € 1,08. Can you imagine a worser scenario ?

[puipuitom]

9 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Too late this time (can't change the rules after the event) but going forward I completely agree. Definitely need at least 60% in favour of re-entering after 31 October. In fact, let's make it 70%.

The Brexiteers run away with 51,88% in favour of a kind of "Leave". 

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, Nigel Garvie said:

Oh dear, it's a survey, that means that you don't ask millions of people. Surveys overall give quite a good indication, although they accept a margin of error, 3% in this case I believe. 1000 is a reasonable survey basis. The 46% is before eliminating the don't knows, so basically it means nothing on its own. Without the don't knows it is 52%.

A Brexiteer does not have the faintest idea about statistics and hypothesis testing. Only... "we won". 

[puipuitom]

9 hours ago, JonnyF said:

52-48 so contentious, I have said time and time again referendums need to be a clear majority, 2% swings can happen on a daily basis, unless there is a clear majority 60% or more then let it be as it was (status quo).  

Too late this time (can't change the rules after the event) but going forward I completely agree. Definitely need at least 60% in favour of re-entering after 31 October. In fact, let's make it 70%.

In fact, such a gigantic impact having decissions should be done with a "constitutional" 2/3 majority, and not 50% + 1 vote. 

However, the UK is one of the very few countries, together with Saudi Arabia, Canada and New Zealand without a constitution, only a bunch of laws from King Arthur till king Boris.

[puipuitom]

9 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

Apparently there is technology that can perform the function quite well...

Which...yes, in your Brexit dreams, but not in reality. if so.. the S/N irish "backstop"would be solved immediately.

Or do you mean the technology as used by the DDR ?

[RuamRudy]

Which...yes, in your Brexit dreams, but not in reality. if so.. the S/N irish "backstop"would be solved immediately.
Or do you mean the technology as used by the DDR ?

Sorry, sarcasm, besides being the lowest form of wit, isn't always received as intended. I was, in fact, being sarcastic.

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[melvinmelvin]

On 8/5/2019 at 6:28 PM, baboon said:

Given the woeful Brexit mismanagement from London, were I a Scot I would be wanting to take my chances. Quite frankly I would cede "total control" to Brussels anyday. 

 

There may not be an EU in five years' time? I would rather gamble on there being no UK in five years' time. England may be keen to tie a bow around itself and sell itself to the American Republican Party, but don't expect the others in the UK to share that glee.

not sure about your Brussels streak but otherwise yes

 

the UK management has now through 3 years demonstrated very very clearly that they ar inept in running the UK

they are inept in following up the referendum

they are inept in dealing with EU/Brussels

inept in handling the so called deal

 

who want to be part of that shambles?

 

NI being folded into Ireland? fine

Scotland seeking independence, fine

Wales is not happy either

 

Rule waves? Maybe, doubt it though, first step would be to be able to run a sovereign country

in a meaningful way

failing that, of course people want away

 

 

 

 

 

[sandyf]

10 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

Sorry, sarcasm, besides being the lowest form of wit, isn't always received as intended. I was, in fact, being sarcastic.

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Goes over the head sometimes.

[darren84310]

Independent from the UK but lapdogs of the EU..... how dumb is that?

[Baerboxer]

On 8/5/2019 at 7:28 PM, RuamRudy said:

"Unionists say independence would... cast a vulnerable Scotland into the high seas of global politics and usher in years of financial, economic and political uncertainty."

Whereas remaining in the UK will almost certainly guarantee that these predictions become reality.

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None of which, however true, entitles a minority of British people to dictate to the majority.

[Baerboxer]

11 hours ago, darren84310 said:

Independent from the UK but lapdogs of the EU..... how dumb is that?

 

Unfortunately just like many people believe the lies and racist xenophobic nonsense from the likes of Gove, Johnson, and Farage, many also believe the lies and racist xenophobic nonsense and promises of shangr la from the Scottish Nationalist Socialist Party.

[Baerboxer]

22 hours ago, puipuitom said:

In fact, such a gigantic impact having decissions should be done with a "constitutional" 2/3 majority, and not 50% + 1 vote. 

However, the UK is one of the very few countries, together with Saudi Arabia, Canada and New Zealand without a constitution, only a bunch of laws from King Arthur till king Boris.

 

Your lack of knowledge of the UK constitution is woeful. 

 

 

[Baerboxer]

23 hours ago, puipuitom said:

The Brexiteers run away with 51,88% in favour of a kind of "Leave". 

 

Not only that, they want to ignore the fact that any referendum can only ever be advisory under the British Constitution, as confirmed by the Supreme Court; and pretend that their advisory referendum which they won with a tiny majority is a once in a lifetime, can never be repealed, binding, never be challenged, event.

[Baerboxer]

On 8/6/2019 at 6:42 PM, RuamRudy said:

There are very valid statistical models which show that a well executed poll of around 1000 people would be enough to show the mood of a country the size of the US. The analogy I liked best was that if the chef stirred his soup properly, he would only need to taste a spoonful to know how the whole pot tastes.

So that's enough to start with. Assuming that the UK is not dissolved through legal means alone, the other millions will get their chance during indyref2.

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Or Indyref3, 4, 5......................147 etc etc. Until the result is one Nicola and her goons like. Then they can change the rules to make it unreversible.

[Nigel Garvie]

31 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Unfortunately just like many people believe the lies and racist xenophobic nonsense from the likes of Gove, Johnson, and Farage, many also believe the lies and racist xenophobic nonsense and promises of shangr la from the Scottish Nationalist Socialist Party.

Quite staggering nonsense. It is the Scottish National Party, they want freedom for Scotland from England so that they can be a Nation once again, that's all. Nationalism is quite different. The snide attempt you appear to make linking Scotland with Nazi Germany and Hitler's "National Socialist Party" should be beneath you. The SNP make no claim to be a Socialist party, they are well left of centre to be sure, and are considered by Scots to be a competent government, maybe you've noticed they keep getting elected. Scotland does have a tiny "Scottish Socialist Party" they are idiots IMHO.

"Racist xenophobic nonsense" can well be applied to Farage and chums, but Sturgeon has said again and again and again That Scotland welcomes immigrants of all sorts to Scotland. If you want Xenophobia read the anti Immigrant filth that comes out of your English Tory Tabloids.

 

Your ignorance of Scottish politics is spectacular.