Jump to content

Britain will face some food shortages in a no-deal Brexit: trade body


snoop1130

Recommended Posts

20 hours ago, bristolboy said:

"Secondly, Germany.....nah...you're not paying attention anyway so I'm not going to bother..."

False, Your problem with me is that I pay very close attention to what you write and hold you accountable for it. You're the one who claimed the Germans and the French would go bankrupt if trade was cut off with the UK. (And seem curiously incapable of understanding what a far more severe effect such a cutoff in trade would have on the UK) And you've yet to come up with any plausible argument to support that. Instead you supply persiflage about the Nash Equilibrium. 

And now there's this nonsense

"Firstly, France can't sustain their economy if 14% of their agricultural production (≈€4,8bn) and a total of ≈€6,1bn of their export is void. They'd go bankrupt and be miserable."

France's total GDP is virtually the same as the UK's. In 2018 it came to about 2.286 trillion euros.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/469624/france-gdp/

So if France were to lose about 4.8 billion euros in agricultural exports that would amount to about 0.25 percent of French GDP.

And you think that this loss would mean that France couldn't sustain its economy? This is your idea of an economic shock big enough to upend France? A 0.25 percent loss in GDP Really? 

But if that's the case, think of the devastation that a cutoff of UK food exports to the EU would mean. in 2018 British food exports to the EU totaled 15 billion euros. 

https://www.fdf.org.uk/exports-2018-q4.aspx

 

You might be surprised to realise this, but the French total export to UK is worth far more than 025% of their GDP (the total French export to UK is 7% and was worth €32.4B in 2017).

 

The reason I don't think French economy can sustain itself if they lose their agricultural export to UK for no other reason but EU officials childish contempt, is that I am rather confident this would send the country into complete chaos, with farmers, wine producers and pretty much every person somehow involved in that trade. doing everything they can to overturn that foolish decision. This will of course have a devastating effect on the rest of the country. Block all the roads (which I expect is what will happen, and I did elaborate on this) and see what happens when their car industry (which is 4.7% of their total export, worth €21.7B) comes to a halt as a result, and the blockage doesn't care about the trading partners so ALL export will be affected... but as I said, I don't think EU will allow this to happen, I think the EU will resort to the only option where their own losses are at a known minimum - something they can only achieve by minimising UK:s losses.

 

You should be paying more attention to the data you try to interpret when you google, you're not getting it right. Or even better, study and use lateral thinking when you get involved in a debate around a topic with non static parameters. But other than that, A for effort.

 

All data: http://www.oecd.org/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 350
  • Created
  • Last Reply
You might be surprised to realise this, but the French total export to UK is worth far more than 025% of their GDP (the total French export to UK is 7% and was worth €32.4B in 2017).
 
The reason I don't think French economy can sustain itself if they lose their agricultural export to UK for no other reason but EU officials childish contempt, is that I am rather confident this would send the country into complete chaos, with farmers, wine producers and pretty much every person somehow involved in that trade. doing everything they can to overturn that foolish decision. This will of course have a devastating effect on the rest of the country. Block all the roads (which I expect is what will happen, and I did elaborate on this) and see what happens when their car industry (which is 4.7% of their total export, worth €21.7B) comes to a halt as a result, and the blockage doesn't care about the trading partners so ALL export will be affected... but as I said, I don't think EU will allow this to happen, I think the EU will resort to the only option where their own losses are at a known minimum - something they can only achieve by minimising UK:s losses.
 
You should be paying more attention to the data you try to interpret when you google, you're not getting it right. Or even better, study and use lateral thinking when you get involved in a debate around a topic with non static parameters. But other than that, A for effort.
 
All data: http://www.oecd.org/
Some Brexiteers very good at half-digested twaddle.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Usual nationalistic rubbish background mood music.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:
On 8/20/2019 at 5:39 PM, luckyluke said:
Must be the language emoji6.png

I'll take the beautiful sound of the French language over some British accents every day of the week.

Someone claimed that the British are very arrogant, another poster said the French were far more arrogant.

I posted that according to some the English language contain something like 45 % french words.

Hence my post that if the French and the British are considering to be arrogant, it must be due to the language.

Flemish humor, well I suppose like English humor is only funny for the British, Flemish humor must only be funny for the Flemish.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

I'll take the beautiful sound of the French language over some British accents every day of the week.

Being Belgian and 70+, it was mandatory, when I was young, to learn the 3 national languages of Belgium, and then as 4th. language, English.

 

I like the sound of the French language, more than German and even more than my own language Flemish.

 

However I like English as well, when it is clearly spoken, as for instance Sir Richard Attenborough do so perfectly in his nature programmes.

 

Unfortunately many times I don't understand a word of what some British are speaking, despite they claim it is English.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/21/2019 at 3:42 PM, Forethat said:

You might be surprised to realise this, but the French total export to UK is worth far more than 025% of their GDP (the total French export to UK is 7% and was worth €32.4B in 2017).

 

The reason I don't think French economy can sustain itself if they lose their agricultural export to UK for no other reason but EU officials childish contempt, is that I am rather confident this would send the country into complete chaos, with farmers, wine producers and pretty much every person somehow involved in that trade. doing everything they can to overturn that foolish decision. This will of course have a devastating effect on the rest of the country. Block all the roads (which I expect is what will happen, and I did elaborate on this) and see what happens when their car industry (which is 4.7% of their total export, worth €21.7B) comes to a halt as a result, and the blockage doesn't care about the trading partners so ALL export will be affected... but as I said, I don't think EU will allow this to happen, I think the EU will resort to the only option where their own losses are at a known minimum - something they can only achieve by minimising UK:s losses.

 

You should be paying more attention to the data you try to interpret when you google, you're not getting it right. Or even better, study and use lateral thinking when you get involved in a debate around a topic with non static parameters. But other than that, A for effort.

 

All data: http://www.oecd.org/

I was responding to what you wrote. Not what you wished you wrote. Let me quote it to you again:

"Firstly, France can't sustain their economy if 14% of their agricultural production (≈€4,8bn) and a total of ≈€6,1bn of their export is void"

Clearly a ridiculous statement that .25% loss to GDP can bring down an economy. So you have to resort to non economic arguments like massive social upheaval. About 3 percent of the French population is involved in agriculture.

https://tradingeconomics.com/france/employment-in-agriculture-percent-of-total-employment-wb-data.html

Agricultural protests might make for exciting media opportunities, but they're not going to break the French economy.

And once again we are faced with your doublethink. If, in fact,  a loss of 7 percent of French GDP poses such a grave danger to the French economy, then wouldn't such an even greater loss pose a grave danger to the UK? And considering that the percentage of the UK economy that exports to the EU, about 13 percent, is greater than the amount that any EU nation  exports to the UK, nearly twice as much as France's percentage, why wouldn't the UK reach the tipping point first? Doublethink much? And of course, the EU as whole exports anywhere from 3-4 percent of its GDP.  which is, at most, less than a third of GDP percentage of the UK.

"The £274 billion exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth 13.4% of the value of the British economy in 2017. It’s been at around 12-15% over the past decade.

Exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about 3-4% of the size of the remaining EU’s economy in

2016. "

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

 

And by the way, if you're going to use links to support your case, learn to use them properly. Citing the homepage and not linking to a specific URL is like handing someone a huge tome and claiming that the evidence is in there somewhere. Of course, if you not actually using the OECD website, that would explain why you don't link to the URL. Otherwise, there's no understandable reason not to link to the actual page where the evidence is located. And even if you could produce the URL, it wouldn't differ materially from what I've posted here. So the evidence that you claim backs up your case, actually does not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/19/2019 at 8:29 PM, welovesundaysatspace said:

Representative democracy means parliament decides. Referendums are advisory only. So far, it seems only brexiteers are trying to undermine the UK‘s parliamentary representative democracy.

We've been over this time and time again on these threads - to the extent that I got more than bored and annoyed by the constant repetition when I was only up to Monday on this thread!

 

Representative democracy works pretty well - until the representatives stop representing their constituents....

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, <deleted> dasterdly said:

We've been over this time and time again on these threads - to the extent that I got more than bored and annoyed by the constant repetition when I was only up to Monday on this thread!

 

Representative democracy works pretty well - until the representatives stop representing their constituents....

 

 

 

She knew:-

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, <deleted> dasterdly said:

Presumably this is a general, pointless insult?

 

(And no, I'm not even close to overweight before anyone states that this is the reason for my post).....

I agree. But it's not at all clear that this poster is a remainer:

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1118955-majority-of-britons-say-any-brexit-deal-should-be-put-to-referendum-poll/page/9/?tab=comments#comment-14493418

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, <deleted> dasterdly said:

Representative democracy works pretty well - until the representatives stop representing their constituents....

 

Question may rise if it has to only represent the majority of the constituents, or all of them.

In this particular case Brexit is, has 48 % of the voting population to be ignored completely by parliament.

Not an easy task, with a 70-30 % result, I assume it would have been easier. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, luckyluke said:

Question may rise if it has to only represent the majority of the constituents, or all of them.

In this particular case Brexit is, has 48 % of the voting population to be ignored completely by parliament.

Not an easy task, with a 70-30 % result, I assume it would have been easier. 

Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit party agreed with you:

Nigel Farage wants second referendum if Remain campaign scrapes narrow win

 

Nigel Farage warns today he would fight for a second referendum on Britain in Europe if the remain campaign won by a narrow margin next month.

The Ukip leader said a small defeat for his leave camp would be “unfinished business” and predicted pressure would grow for a re-run of the 23 June ballot.

Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Nigel Farage, the leader of the Brexit party agreed with you:

Nigel Farage wants second referendum if Remain campaign scrapes narrow win

 

Nigel Farage warns today he would fight for a second referendum on Britain in Europe if the remain campaign won by a narrow margin next month.

The Ukip leader said a small defeat for his leave camp would be “unfinished business” and predicted pressure would grow for a re-run of the 23 June ballot.

Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017

And this comment was entirely understandable in the light of the brexit party continuing to fight.

 

Sadly, remainers prefer not to support their own party (Change UK) to fight for a new referendum - they prefer to fight to stop this referendum result being enacted....

 

This has resulted in ever increasing venom and hatred IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, <deleted> dasterdly said:

We've been over this time and time again on these threads - to the extent that I got more than bored and annoyed by the constant repetition when I was only up to Monday on this thread!

 There are known knowns and known unknowns, but for some there is only I.

 

About time the Brits stood up for themselves and displayed that spirt of adventuring into the unknown. 

 

Ho hum, if you know it all what’s the point of anything, more often than not intelligent people realise they know very little.

 

Here’s to another weekend of discovering absolutely nothing knew.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/19/2019 at 3:38 PM, welovesundaysatspace said:

...and that’s only one of the measures parliament can take. Let’s see. 

 

Don’t wanna disappoint you. I really don’t care. It’s just a big amusement. 

Hi.

Just wanted to check back in with you for an advice on what measures you want the parliament to take?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/28/2019 at 9:51 PM, Forethat said:

Hi.

Just wanted to check back in with you for an advice

I generally don’t give out advice for free, it’s how I make a living. 

 

On 8/28/2019 at 9:51 PM, Forethat said:

on what measures you want the parliament to take?

 

I don’t want anyone to do anything. How often do I need to tell you that I don’t care? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...