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Britain will face some food shortages in a no-deal Brexit: trade body

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Forethat said:

 

I don't know how familiar you are with macroeconomics and mathematics, but generally speaking (and from a short term economic perspective), a retained EU-membership must be considered the globally optimal solution (that's not an arbitrary evaluation, it's a mathematical term you might want to google) as this benefits all parties involved (UK, France, Germany etc.). However, as the globally optimal solution is an unstable state, a Nash equilibrium state seems more probable in case of Brexit as this is the only possible stable state outcome (all parties minimise their losses to a known level). 

 

I appreciate that your view is that "UK will lose MORE than EU, therefore UK is the loser", but that is not how economies work (and I'll skip any references to comedy, naivety and similar...). EU will want to minimise their losses, and the only way they can do that is by minimising UK:s.  "How much" is irrelevant.

 

Happy to have helped out.

Now you're just resorting to nonsense

"In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Forbes Nash Jr., is a proposed solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only their own strategy."

 

Maybe someday, when quantum computing is an everyday thing, it might be possible to bring economies to an equilibrium state. But as things stand, that's a long way off. And of course, the Nath theorem is about non-cooperative games. An actually economy is a mix of cooperation and competition. Why do you post such nonsense? Maybe because you haven't actually got an honest answer?

 

And the fact is that you claimed that no exports to the UK would mean bankruptcies for Germany and France. Both nations export a far smaller percentage of their GDP to the UK than the UK does to the EU. Even if your invocation of the Nash theorem was valid, which it clearly is not, the UK would still go belly up in such a situation, long before France or Germany.

 

Instead of consulting Nash, you might take a look at Orwell and the concept of doublethink. You've got one set of rules for thinking about the UK and another for thinking about the rest of the EU. 

Edited by bristolboy
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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Now you're just resorting to nonsense

"In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Forbes Nash Jr., is a proposed solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only their own strategy."

 

Maybe someday, when quantum computing is an everyday thing, it might be possible to bring economies to an equilibrium state. But as things stand, that's a long way off. And of course, the Nath theorem is about non-cooperative games. An actually economy is a mix of cooperation and competition. Why do you post such nonsense? Maybe because you haven't actually got an honest answer?

 

And the fact is that you claimed that no exports to the UK would mean bankruptcies for Germany and France. Both nations export a far smaller percentage of their GDP to the UK than the UK does to the EU. Even if your invocation of the Nash theorem was valid, which it clearly is not, the UK would still go belly up in such a situation, long before France or Germany.

 

Instead of consulting Nash, you might take a look at Orwell and the concept of doublethink. You've got one set of rules for thinking about the UK and another for thinking about the rest of the EU. 

If you had read my post you would have realised that I'm not suggesting that UK would be worse off compared to EU, or vice versa. I'm suggesting that the more likely outcome is that both parties opt for a solution where the known damage is at a minimum. Instead of consulting Google perhaps you might want to actually comprehend the concepts behind the quotes (I actually wrote it in clear text, but you missed that. As well)?

 

Happy to explain this further in case you need guidance.  

Edited by Forethat
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2 minutes ago, Forethat said:

If you had read my post you would have realised that I'm not suggesting that UK would be worse off compared to EU, or vice versa. I'm suggesting that the more likely outcome is that both parties opt for a solution where the known damage is at a minimum. Instead of consulting Google perhaps you might want to actually comprehend the concepts behind the quotes (I actually wrote it in clear text, but you missed that. As well)?

 

Happy to explain this further in case you need guidance.  

First explain to me why you claimed the France and Germany would go bankrupt if their exports to the UK were cut off.

"So, stop worrying about the food, medicines, cars and champagne. You see, if we don't buy those products from the French and the Germans, THEY will go bankrupt and be miserable. WE can buy the stuff from someone else. How's that for negotiating position...?" 

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

First explain to me why you claimed the France and Germany would go bankrupt if their exports to the UK were cut off.

"So, stop worrying about the food, medicines, cars and champagne. You see, if we don't buy those products from the French and the Germans, THEY will go bankrupt and be miserable. WE can buy the stuff from someone else. How's that for negotiating position...?" 

Firstly, France can't sustain their economy if 14% of their agricultural production (≈€4,8bn) and a total of ≈€6,1bn of their export is void. They'd go bankrupt and be miserable. Personally, I see French farmers blocking every road in France as an even more viable threat to their economy. As if the French didn't have enough issues with the yellow vests (btw, when was the last time you saw a report on BBC about the weekly yellow vest demonstrations in Paris?)...

 

As I said, no one wants the economy to collapse. Not even the French. For the remainers, well I'm not so sure, but I'm glad posters on here don't show up at my office to sort out the mess I'm dealing with (and there are some of you who knows exactly where I'm working)...

 

Secondly, Germany.....nah...you're not paying attention anyway so I'm not going to bother....

Edited by Forethat
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5 minutes ago, Victornoir said:

Everywhere in Europe, we are laughing at the British arrogance, which still think to be a vital outlet for other countries.


We come to these forums as for the show, to also observe how the braggart will try to validate the unjustifiable.


But here, the blusters and pretensions of some poses a real mental health problem.

British say the French are the most arrogant people in Europe - and the French agree ☺️

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10055933/British-say-the-French-are-the-most-arrogant-people-in-Europe-and-the-French-agree.html

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8 minutes ago, Victornoir said:

Everywhere in Europe, we are laughing at the British arrogance,

 

2 minutes ago, vogie said:

British say the French are the most arrogant people in Europe

Must be the language 😉

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20 hours ago, bristolboy said:

"Secondly, Germany.....nah...you're not paying attention anyway so I'm not going to bother..."

False, Your problem with me is that I pay very close attention to what you write and hold you accountable for it. You're the one who claimed the Germans and the French would go bankrupt if trade was cut off with the UK. (And seem curiously incapable of understanding what a far more severe effect such a cutoff in trade would have on the UK) And you've yet to come up with any plausible argument to support that. Instead you supply persiflage about the Nash Equilibrium. 

And now there's this nonsense

"Firstly, France can't sustain their economy if 14% of their agricultural production (≈€4,8bn) and a total of ≈€6,1bn of their export is void. They'd go bankrupt and be miserable."

France's total GDP is virtually the same as the UK's. In 2018 it came to about 2.286 trillion euros.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/469624/france-gdp/

So if France were to lose about 4.8 billion euros in agricultural exports that would amount to about 0.25 percent of French GDP.

And you think that this loss would mean that France couldn't sustain its economy? This is your idea of an economic shock big enough to upend France? A 0.25 percent loss in GDP Really? 

But if that's the case, think of the devastation that a cutoff of UK food exports to the EU would mean. in 2018 British food exports to the EU totaled 15 billion euros. 

https://www.fdf.org.uk/exports-2018-q4.aspx

 

You might be surprised to realise this, but the French total export to UK is worth far more than 025% of their GDP (the total French export to UK is 7% and was worth €32.4B in 2017).

 

The reason I don't think French economy can sustain itself if they lose their agricultural export to UK for no other reason but EU officials childish contempt, is that I am rather confident this would send the country into complete chaos, with farmers, wine producers and pretty much every person somehow involved in that trade. doing everything they can to overturn that foolish decision. This will of course have a devastating effect on the rest of the country. Block all the roads (which I expect is what will happen, and I did elaborate on this) and see what happens when their car industry (which is 4.7% of their total export, worth €21.7B) comes to a halt as a result, and the blockage doesn't care about the trading partners so ALL export will be affected... but as I said, I don't think EU will allow this to happen, I think the EU will resort to the only option where their own losses are at a known minimum - something they can only achieve by minimising UK:s losses.

 

You should be paying more attention to the data you try to interpret when you google, you're not getting it right. Or even better, study and use lateral thinking when you get involved in a debate around a topic with non static parameters. But other than that, A for effort.

 

All data: http://www.oecd.org/

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You might be surprised to realise this, but the French total export to UK is worth far more than 025% of their GDP (the total French export to UK is 7% and was worth €32.4B in 2017).
 
The reason I don't think French economy can sustain itself if they lose their agricultural export to UK for no other reason but EU officials childish contempt, is that I am rather confident this would send the country into complete chaos, with farmers, wine producers and pretty much every person somehow involved in that trade. doing everything they can to overturn that foolish decision. This will of course have a devastating effect on the rest of the country. Block all the roads (which I expect is what will happen, and I did elaborate on this) and see what happens when their car industry (which is 4.7% of their total export, worth €21.7B) comes to a halt as a result, and the blockage doesn't care about the trading partners so ALL export will be affected... but as I said, I don't think EU will allow this to happen, I think the EU will resort to the only option where their own losses are at a known minimum - something they can only achieve by minimising UK:s losses.
 
You should be paying more attention to the data you try to interpret when you google, you're not getting it right. Or even better, study and use lateral thinking when you get involved in a debate around a topic with non static parameters. But other than that, A for effort.
 
All data: http://www.oecd.org/
Some Brexiteers very good at half-digested twaddle.

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Usual nationalistic rubbish background mood music.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

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1 hour ago, SheungWan said:
On 8/20/2019 at 5:39 PM, luckyluke said:
Must be the language emoji6.png

I'll take the beautiful sound of the French language over some British accents every day of the week.

Someone claimed that the British are very arrogant, another poster said the French were far more arrogant.

I posted that according to some the English language contain something like 45 % french words.

Hence my post that if the French and the British are considering to be arrogant, it must be due to the language.

Flemish humor, well I suppose like English humor is only funny for the British, Flemish humor must only be funny for the Flemish.

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1 hour ago, SheungWan said:

I'll take the beautiful sound of the French language over some British accents every day of the week.

Being Belgian and 70+, it was mandatory, when I was young, to learn the 3 national languages of Belgium, and then as 4th. language, English.

 

I like the sound of the French language, more than German and even more than my own language Flemish.

 

However I like English as well, when it is clearly spoken, as for instance Sir Richard Attenborough do so perfectly in his nature programmes.

 

Unfortunately many times I don't understand a word of what some British are speaking, despite they claim it is English.

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Baiting troll post removed

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