Is the closure of your favorite bar or restaurant imminent?

[Leaver]

47 minutes ago, nausea said:

If they can't make it, who can?

 

The bigger a company is, the harder it falls.  

 

I hope Nightwish survive.  Whilst I haven't agreed with all the changes Nightwish have made to the bars, particularly the ridiculously loud music, like every customer is in their 20's, if they were to collapse, basically Soi 6 collapses, virtually overnight.  

 

I suppose it will come down to how leveraged the Nightwish Group is, and how understanding their Thai landlords are.  

[kingofthemountain]

51 minutes ago, Leaver said:

if they were to collapse, basically Soi 6 collapses, virtually overnight.

A lot of Thais will be more than happy with that

 

Since years Soi 6 was a little bit too ''in your face'' for the conservative elites runing the country

 

Photos of the place with half naked girls in the street in front of the bars were too often in the international news,  and they were contrary to the will to change the seedy image of Thailand in general and Pattaya in particular, based on the sex tourism, with the conservatives elites wanting to turn it in a family friendly destination. (This one being a good idea or not isn't the debate here)

 

Plus you had the problem of the location (Not anymore with covid) a lot of hotels chains and other  real estate developpers were very intersted to to something similar here at what they had done

in Soi 10

 

The only ones interested in the return of Soi 6 like it was before covid  are the Thai landlords because of the exorbitants rents paid. As long as there is someone ready to pay this price

...and of course nightwish group because they have spend fortunes 

to buy all these bars.

If they throw the towel now, all this money is lost forever.

the only question is how long they can hang without any money

coming in (The live streams are a joke, the amount of money earned with the channels is ridiculous)

The answer will probably comes when the lease contracts will come to the term, In the actual situation there is no point to sign a new one.

Edited May 7, 2021 by kingofthemountain

[Leaver]

1 hour ago, kingofthemountain said:

If they throw the towel now, all this money is lost forever.

the only question is how long they can hang without any money

 

The question is, how much more money will the investors be prepared to throw in, and for how long.  

 

It only takes one investor to say enough is enough, and that investor's share of expenses multiplies onto the remaining investors, which may knock others out, and so the domino effect starts.  

 

Expenses, with very little income, will be for at least another 12 months, minimum.  Along the way, as you say, key money and / or leases will fall due. 

 

Returns on losses may not be seen for years.   

[jacko45k]

8 hours ago, Ralf001 said:

 

the coin earned from one ST punter covers that bus fare so is easily repaid within a short time frame.

Yes, they are good for it.... where are the punters and are there enough to go around?

[jacko45k]

8 hours ago, Leaver said:

The bigger a company is, the harder it falls.  

It would depend on the structure behind it too... it could be built like a deck of cards. We have seen big outfits fall to the wayside, from Secrets to Nordic to Thai Airways. 

I have been amazed the six has survived, and that someone has invested so heavily. It has been a specific target so many times and the creep of respectability coming from the North is at the doorstep. 

[jacko45k]

7 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

Photos of the place with half naked girls in the street in front of the bars were too often in the international news

Along with the odd murder......

[Ralf001]

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Yes, they are good for it.... where are the punters and are there enough to go around?

My post was assuming they stay up country until the borders open and the Johns come flocking back.... then they catch the bus back  and pay for the ticket with from the proceeds of the first desperado they fleece.

Edited May 8, 2021 by Ralf001

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, Ralf001 said:

My post was assuming they stay up country until the borders open and the Johns come flocking back.... then they catch the bus back  and pay for the ticket with from the proceeds of the first desperado they fleece.

Yes, I got that... but it might be a while before we get the 'flooding back' I  could do with a couple myself right now!

[redwood1]

 Chunky Monkey RIP............... 

 

[Ralf001]

37 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

 I  could do with a couple myself right now!

 

A couple of john's ?

[jacko45k]

Just now, Ralf001 said:

 

A couple of john's ?

It is a waste of time trying to converse with some....don't you grasp what is the subject of your post?

[Ralf001]

Just now, jacko45k said:

It is a waste of time trying to converse with some....don't you grasp what is the subject of your post?

 

 

Yeah it was about the borders opening and the John's come flocking back.

 

You said you  could do with a couple yourself..... did I miss something ?

[chrisandsu]

51 minutes ago, Ralf001 said:

 

 

Yeah it was about the borders opening and the John's come flocking back.

 

You said you  could do with a couple yourself..... did I miss something ?

ST= short time I’m assuming . 

[Ralf001]

12 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

ST= short time I’m assuming . 

 

 

I believe that's the accepted terminology..... where in my post that jocko quoted did I mention ST ?

 

[Leaver]

9 hours ago, jacko45k said:

It would depend on the structure behind it too... it could be built like a deck of cards. We have seen big outfits fall to the wayside, from Secrets to Nordic to Thai Airways. 

I have been amazed the six has survived, and that someone has invested so heavily. It has been a specific target so many times and the creep of respectability coming from the North is at the doorstep. 

 

The company has survived more than 1 year with no tourism, which shows it can survive just about anything. 

 

The questions investors will eventually have to ask themselves will be, is it economically viable to continue to prop up the company (survive) and will they ever be able to see a return on their investment?  On a 3, or even a 5 year lease, that point must be nearing soon.

[kingofthemountain]

19 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

The company has survived more than 1 year with no tourism, which shows it can survive just about anything. 

 

The questions investors will eventually have to ask themselves will be, is it economically viable to continue to prop up the company (survive) and will they ever be able to see a return on their investment?  On a 3, or even a 5 year lease, that point must be nearing soon.

Iirc the group CEO has declared on one of his YT video the group has

 6 or 7 ''silent'' investissors (I presume silent meaning they leave all freedom of action to the CEO) and they had already, before the start of the covid crisis, their amount of money invested returned to them, that's means so far they don't have lost any money.

 

But it was before covid, now with the cash not flowing anymore since one year and no end in sight i can imagine those investissors ask themselves at the moment if it's really a good option to put more into it without no any guarantee of a ROI in the next months\years or not

 

Probably few of them have enough money to not really care about the future losses but i know what will be my advice. There is always a moment when you need to take your finger out of the grinder before to have half of your body crushed, and imo it's now

Edited May 8, 2021 by kingofthemountain

[jacko45k]

41 minutes ago, Leaver said:

The questions investors will eventually have to ask themselves will be, is it economically viable to continue to prop up the company (survive) and will they ever be able to see a return on their investment?  On a 3, or even a 5 year lease, that point must be nearing soon.

The way I heard it was financed was based on investors, but not a topic for here. 

[Rimmer]

some off topic and replies removed

[rott]

22 hours ago, redwood1 said:

How do you know Chunky Monkey is gone forever?

Well a lot of their gear was being moved out on Weds night, not beyond a reasonable doubt but... 

Edited May 8, 2021 by rott

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, rott said:

Well a lot of their gear was being moved out on Weds night, not beyond a reasonable doubt but... 

 

Not so long ago the owner of Hungry Hippo was looking for an investor to start another restaurant.  He's very familiar with Chunky Monkey.  Perhaps it may become Hungry Hippo 2.  

[VBF]

20 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Not so long ago the owner of Hungry Hippo was looking for an investor to start another restaurant.  He's very familiar with Chunky Monkey.  Perhaps it may become Hungry Hippo 2.  

That particular owner actually set up CM, before he sold it to set up HH. So your theory, if it becomes true could literally be a case of what goes around comes around! I imagine if that does happen, he will have struck himself a bargain, somewhere, somehow. Good luck to him, i say.

[Leaver]

3 hours ago, VBF said:

That particular owner actually set up CM, before he sold it to set up HH.

 

I know.  That's his business model.  He doesn't make money on the food, he makes money on the restaurant development and sale.

 

3 hours ago, VBF said:

So your theory, if it becomes true could literally be a case of what goes around comes around! I imagine if that does happen, he will have struck himself a bargain, somewhere, somehow.

 

How much money do you think there is in 120 baht meals, after all expenses, including the capital outlay for the redevelopment?  

[baansgr]

For those with a business hanging on for dear life...they should reminisce about prior Covid.... businesses were struggling then, I remember the comments of worst high season ever etc etc etc....if borders by some  Miracle opened tomorrow, it still wouldn't be enough as no one will be coming in any great numbers for years

[VBF]

3 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I know.  That's his business model.  He doesn't make money on the food, he makes money on the restaurant development and sale.

 

 

How much money do you think there is in 120 baht meals, after all expenses, including the capital outlay for the redevelopment?  

No idea - I can only assume that the gent in question has worked it out, and as was said above, he makes his money flipping the restaurants, not the burgers! ????

[TaaSaparot]

[scubascuba3]

9 hours ago, Leaver said:

 That's his business model.  He doesn't make money on the food,

 

 

Don't talk guff, his model is lower prices higher volumes, works for many successful companies. The high price low volume places have closed

[jacko45k]

10 hours ago, Leaver said:

How much money do you think there is in 120 baht meals, after all expenses, including the capital outlay for the redevelopment? 

85,000 baht/week turnover if say 100/day. I have never had a bill of 120 baht, always more. Don't know the expenses.....

Plenty Thai places seem to sell cheap plates and they are not in the game of flipping. 

[DerbyDan]

10 hours ago, baansgr said:

For those with a business hanging on for dear life...they should reminisce about prior Covid.... businesses were struggling then, I remember the comments of worst high season ever etc etc etc....if borders by some  Miracle opened tomorrow, it still wouldn't be enough as no one will be coming in any great numbers for years

Hanging on when your losing money is a tried and true method of failure. Your holding onto an illusion, basically.

 

If you must fight, cut losses quickly and get back in when things improve.

[DerbyDan]

6 hours ago, VBF said:

No idea - I can only assume that the gent in question has worked it out, and as was said above, he makes his money flipping the restaurants, not the burgers! ????

Not necessarily.

 

He could be losing money with a failed strategy, something he read works, but does not in reality, and going into debt each time. He makes money the first time, think he has a system. Starts losing money, he think's it's a fluke and goes all in once more, only to lose more. Each time he goes bigger trying to make the money back. Typical gambler story.

 

Not all Einstein's around here.

Edited May 9, 2021 by DerbyDan

[rott]

6 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

I do sympathise greatly with the buyer here (a young Indian I think). It had unfortunately lost it's way a while ago, he took it on shortly before Covid and spent money on it. Must have burnt a good few Bob.