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Baht Forecast } 25 BHT to the £


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from here

http://poundf.co.uk/pound-to-baht-forecast-gbp-to-thb

 

Why do they think a big drop in Oct, Just when I get back from the UK.... Is not Breakfarse end of Oct

 

and ending up at 25 BHT to the Pound

 

Pound To Baht Forecast 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 And 2023

Month Open Min-Max Close Total,%
2019
Aug 37.532 35.607-38.997 37.497 -0.1%
Sep 37.497 34.572-39.193 37.686 0.4%
Oct 37.686 34.889-37.797 36.343 -3.2%
Nov 36.343 34.136-36.980 35.558 -5.3%
Dec 35.558 32.674-35.558 34.035 -9.3%
2020
Jan 34.035 32.874-35.614 34.244 -8.8%
Feb 34.244 32.439-35.143 33.791 -10.0%
Mar 33.791 33.186-35.952 34.569 -7.9%
Apr 34.569 32.326-35.020 33.673 -10.3%
May 33.673 32.137-34.815 33.476 -10.8%
Jun 33.476 32.259-34.947 33.603 -10.5%
Jul 33.603 32.009-34.677 33.343 -11.2%
Aug 33.343 31.207-33.807 32.507 -13.4%
Sep 32.507 31.149-33.745 32.447 -13.5%
Oct 32.447 31.870-34.526 33.198 -11.5%
Nov 33.198 31.278-33.884 32.581 -13.2%
Dec 32.581 31.092-33.682 32.387 -13.7%
2021
Jan 32.387 31.373-33.987 32.680 -12.9%
Feb 32.680 30.539-33.083 31.811 -15.2%
Mar 31.811 30.930-33.508 32.219 -14.2%
Apr 32.219 30.776-33.340 32.058 -14.6%
May 32.058 30.782-33.348 32.065 -14.6%
Jun 32.065 30.438-32.974 31.706 -15.5%
Jul 31.706 31.663-34.301 32.982 -12.1%
Aug 32.982 30.887-33.461 32.174 -14.3%

 

 

Month Open Min-Max Close Total,%
2021 Continuation
Sep 32.174 30.751-33.313 32.032 -14.7%
Oct 32.032 30.992-33.574 32.283 -14.0%
Nov 32.283 30.344-32.872 31.608 -15.8%
Dec 31.608 31.534-34.162 32.848 -12.5%
2022
Jan 32.848 31.412-34.030 32.721 -12.8%
Feb 32.721 30.777-33.341 32.059 -14.6%
Mar 32.059 30.712-33.272 31.992 -14.8%
Apr 31.992 30.427-32.963 31.695 -15.6%
May 31.695 31.673-34.313 32.993 -12.1%
Jun 32.993 30.264-32.993 31.525 -16.0%
Jul 31.525 29.856-32.344 31.100 -17.1%
Aug 31.100 29.535-31.997 30.766 -18.0%
Sep 30.766 29.074-31.496 30.285 -19.3%
Oct 30.285 26.229-30.285 27.322 -27.2%
Nov 27.322 26.636-28.856 27.746 -26.1%
Dec 27.746 26.943-29.189 28.066 -25.2%
2023
Jan 28.066 27.403-29.687 28.545 -23.9%
Feb 28.545 26.694-28.918 27.806 -25.9%
Mar 27.806 25.579-27.806 26.645 -29.0%
Apr 26.645 25.203-27.303 26.253 -30.1%
May 26.253 24.731-26.791 25.761 -31.4%
Jun 25.761 24.688-26.746 25.717 -31.5%
Jul 25.717 24.709-26.769 25.739 -31.4%
Aug 25.739 24.842-26.912 25.877 -31.1%
Sep 25.877 25.588-27.720 26.654 -29.0%
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There is no Algorithm or any person born by a woman that can project the value of anything traded in open markets with such accuracy over a given time period.


As far as the £ is concerned, I will say this: There are a lot of "negatives" already priced into the £ in connection with "Brexit". But in case of a "no deal" Brexit, most likely the £ will weaken further.


This is the scenario currently expected within the "currency trading community".


- In case the Brits prepare for a "worst case scenario" (managing to avoid major disruptions of the British Economy, avoiding shortages etc etc), making British Exports competitive on world markets. This would be the time the £ has hit "rock-bottom", spiking up quickly.
It all depends of the "preparedness" of the Brits and how they fit into their "new world".
- A bad time to sell the £ at this time. But there are a lot of folks around (with cash in their hands) to buy the £ at "rock-bottom" price if there are indications that the Brits will be able to digest the Brexit within a reasonable time-frame. (I myself have a little cash in my hands to buy the £ if the time is right).


Strictly my personal assement of short term things to come. No idea where the £ will be 5 years from now. Neither does anyone else. With or without Algorithms. The Clairvoiant Gipsies from Romania all work for Goldman Sachs and live in NY.

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9 minutes ago, swissie said:

- In case the Brits prepare for a "worst case scenario" (managing to avoid major disruptions of the British Economy, avoiding shortages etc etc), making British Exports competitive on world markets.

I am a Brit and I can confidently advise you that the Brits couldn't prepare a <deleted> in a women's prison with a fistful of pardons. Dawn is a daily amazement to the British parliament. They are as thick as pudding.

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That chart is tosh. It'll be way oversold (as now) after the brexit thing, and once people realise that it is not the end of the world and certainty, wait for the rebound. I would be more interested in the correction of the baht.

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There's obviously two complex situations impacting on this - the UK and Thai economies, and as balance of payments are a big factor in the value of a currency, the Thai tourist numbers have a significant influence.

 

Brexit will run it's course, and nobody can accurately predict that.  But in Thailand it may be easier to predict. The major industries related to automotive and other manufacturing will decline due to increasing competition from Vietnam and other emerging countries such as Indonesia, Philippines, but as manufacturing involves two-way transactions (import of raw materials/export of products) the downward pressure on the Baht due to a shift in balance of payments will be minimal.  Domestic debt will rise and household spending will fall -but again minimal impact on the Baht, perhaps even a benefit due to reduced imports.  But tourism brings in foreign currency with minimal outflow, so any increase in tourism will directly strengthen the Baht.

 

So as the US/China trade war fades (after Trumps second term) and as the Indian economy continues to grow, Thai tourism will inevitably rise. (There's only so many places 2 billion people can go on holiday)

 

So the Baht will remain strong, the Pound will dip through the Brexit chaos with a long, slow recovery, and we'll all be long dead before the Pound recovers to a reasonable level.

 

So get used to the new reality and develop a liking for Mama noodles with no honey.

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1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

If the baht/£ hits that low, I can safely predict there will be ZERO exports from Thailand to the UK

At the moment, most of the chicken products cooked and eaten in Wetherspoon's are processed

in Thailand, it will be interesting to see how long that remains.

 

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14 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

they forecast a additional 31% drop by 3.5 years from now.

 

2023

Jun 25.761 24.688-26.746 25.717 -31.5%

 

If a no deal Brexit takes place even this forecast is too optimistic....

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