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SURVEY: Can the Thai Economy weather a global downturn?

SURVEY: Can the Thai Economy weather a global downturn?  

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There have been numerous threads about the Thai economy.   There are concerns that the trade war could have a negative impact on the Thai economy.     Which of the following best expresses your opinion on the future of the Thai economy?

 

Please feel free to leave a comment.

 

Here are some links on the economy.

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1118550-thai-central-bank-to-cut-2019-growth-forecast-again-government/

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1118654-encouraging-signs-emerge-amid-high-economic-risks-nesdc/

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1119140-exports-up-428-last-month/

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The Thai economy is not good at the moment export shipping is very much down. Thailand has abundant amount of money in their foreign reserve more than enough to pay for their Foreign debt. Foreign debt can't be paid in Thai Baht. Foreign money is created by tourism . The Baht will stay high with more tourists coming . Each tourist is required to bring in to the Kingdom 20,000 Baht or equivalent money which adds to the Foreign reserve. Supply and demand, the more the tourists the more the demand for the Baht, so the Baht stays high.

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Posted (edited)

I think the global economy is teetering on the edge, if the larger economies go into recession so will Thailand's much smaller economy and as I understand there is a lot of personal debt floating about (credit card, car and home loans) therefore if certain events happen it could get ugly for many.

 

Of course Thais and Thailand will be OK, but the growth spurt may falter for a while.

 

 

Edited by NightSky

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The question is what impact will the Grand Solar Minimum, coupled with a severe economic downturn, the likes never before seen, have on Thailand and the rest of the World.

 

Chinese scientists warn of global cooling. 

https://electroverse.net/chinese-scientists-warn-of-imminent-global-cooling/

 

2020s Worst Recession in US History. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/05/24/the-2020s-might-be-the-worst-decade-in-u-s-history/amp/

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Posted (edited)

Circa 20% of Thai foreign currency originates from tourism, which from latest stats are still slightly up by 1.5 percent in incoming numbers for first half of 2019.

 

Export in general, for the first time in four years, is predicted to hit a 0.64 percent drop for the full year 2019.

Source: Thaivisa News "UTCC forecasts export downturn in 2019’s second half"

 

A major problem is the strong Thai baht, and increase of interest rate by 0.25 last December, but a strong currency, and high interest rate, can also be a sign of good financial health, and a tool to work with for increasing export and tourism.

 

However, it seems like a lot of the usual tools to predict economy are not working in the "negative interest-rate era", so we can both head towards a changing World, or head towards Global financial meltdown; the Domesday activists has talked about the latter almost ever since the last financial crisis.

 

World economy seems more unpredictable than ever before – and the large dollar-economy's present leader also seem fairly unpredictable – who would have believe that one can borrow money on private real estate, and getting paid for borrowing; that's the situation right now in my Scandinavian home country, however the payment after various credit insurance fees is rather small, but still in positive favor of the borrower.

 

The SET stock market seem to have more a life of it's own, than just following the market trends, and foreign currency moves might locally affect the SET different compared to International stock market.

 

I think Thai economy will bumble through...🤔

Edited by khunPer
typo
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All three and same for every economy... each will be hurt, each will bumble through... 

 

Do you think they are going to put the place up for sale? Like Greenland? 

 

They have lasted this long through downturns, wars, depressions and a tsunami... 

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1 hour ago, overherebc said:

As long as the tourist numbers go up it could weather WW3.

The tourist numbers going up as far as I know, will be with the Indians and Chinese, and they are not big spenders. I was in Bangkok last week and it was conspicious by the absence of Farangs, yet when I go to the UK next week on holiday, I will bet the plane is full.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Kurtf said:

Since much of the Thai economy is based on tourism, it is a no brainer to assume with a global economic downturn things like vacations will be put on hold. Ergo less tourists and less tourist dollars/pounds/Euro being spent in the land of smiles.

Tourism is a relatively small part of the TH economy. It is just that we read daily about it, what makes it appear much bigger. There are major export industry.

And the myth of Chinese not spending money. Think again or ask your watch, jewelers, brand shops in tourist areas at home.... You will be surprised...The links below just for general information.  Regards. MS>

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/opinion/why-the-chinese-are-infinitely-more-important-than-western-tourists-to-thailand

Edited by moonseeker

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