Baht to climb further on capital inflows as trade war heats up

[Caldera]

15 hours ago, Jip99 said:

Blaming Payuth for global warming is a poor effort - even for you.

What he does deserve blame for is that Thailand hasn't become more competitive in producing other, more high-value goods that could be exported instead. Thailand simply should have outgrown competing with countries such as India and Vietnam for rice exports by now. His whole Thailand 4.0 project is a joke, and Thailand will pay a high price.

[earlinclaifornia]

Since trump was elected the exchange is more than 5 baht less. America glad I left even so. Went back and felt the HATRED. So sad was nice before.

[john ianson]

14 hours ago, Cadbury said:

You seem to have trouble reading the written word. Your comprehension doesn't seem to be much better either.

I made no comment about global warming. I was discussing the impact of the high baht on rice exports. I made a remark that that the drought would also have a detrimental effect.

The matter of Prayut appointing himself as the country's economic guru is a separate issue and nothing to do with global warming. But I will blame him for the lack of initiative in improving water storage for rice irrigation.

I  think that goose was inferring the drought was caused by global warming !  Be careful they walk  among us !

[55Jay]

I try to think of this in a straight line re: Thailand's input into China's exports to the US. 

 

US puts tarrifs on (select) Chinese imports.  So China raises the price of its export goods to cover?  And, ultimately, US consumers cover that delta at the cash register pay point.  Is that right?

 

How does this impact Thailand and China's financial/manufacturing arrangements?  Seems like Thailand isn't in the middle of it, unless there's some knock-on with the US Dollar/Baht FOREX between them and China?

[woogoo]

16 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Since trump was elected the exchange is more than 5 baht less. America glad I left even so. Went back and felt the HATRED. So sad was nice before.

You seem to be forgetting that the baht was only able to drop by 5 because it rose that high in the year leading up the election. Throughout the entire Obama administration it remained between 29 and 33 to the dollar. The 33 starting around mid-2015. So, while we can certainly pin the current drop on the trade war, you should also pin the fact that it got so high in the first place him as well. 

[KhunKenAP]

Simple solution, put the General in charge. He can order the baht to drop.

 

Problem solved!

[Vacuum]

10 hours ago, fforest1 said:

And to make matters worse bars have been cutting back on the balloons.... 

That's just an environmental/plastic issue...

[MartinKal]

16 hours ago, Cadbury said:

That should kill off the rice exports nicely; especially on top of the impact of the drought. India and Vietnam will be laughing all the way to the bank.

But no need to worry, PM Prayut has appointed himself the commercial mastermind in charge of running the economy. Only a matter of time before more economic stimulus rabbits start emerging from the hat. 

Point is that Thailand is victim of trade wars and with its considerable foreign reserves, its seen as a safe-haven.

Meaning it's not able to master these situations.

 

But, okay, if the problem is the strong Baht, it can also be seen as an opportunity. An opportunity to restock from abroad at effectively lower prices. Why not use the strong Baht and the foreign reserves to rebuild the infrastructure of the country?

[johnc925]

16 hours ago, Denim said:

 

Excuse my ignorance but can they not just selling bonds or are they legally bound to do so ?

they HAVE been selling bonds... the Chinese Govt (reportedly) have been buying them.

[silver sea]

 

   21 hours ago,  webfact said: 

"We are not sure if the baht strength can be kept under control by the central bank in the upcoming months as safe haven inflows continue into Thailand's bond market ," said Tim Leelahaphan, a StanChart's economist.

17 hours ago, Denim said:

 

Excuse my ignorance but can they not just selling bonds or are they legally bound to do so ?

 

1 hour ago, johnc925 said:

they HAVE been selling bonds... the Chinese Govt (reportedly) have been buying them.

 

????Reply to johnc925????

 

I suspect that Denim, who was commenting on the paragraph that he had quoted from webfact’s article, may have omitted the word ‘stop’ from his post. What he meant to say was:

 

”Excuse my ignorance, but can they not just stop selling bonds or are they legally bound to do so?”

 

Like Denim, I am not an economist, and so cannot answer his question.

[Denim]

1 minute ago, silver sea said:

 

   21 hours ago,  webfact said: 

"We are not sure if the baht strength can be kept under control by the central bank in the upcoming months as safe haven inflows continue into Thailand's bond market ," said Tim Leelahaphan, a StanChart's economist.

 

 

????Reply to johnc925????

 

I suspect that Denim, who was commenting on the paragraph that he had quoted from webfact’s article, may have omitted the word ‘stop’ from his post. What he meant to say was:

 

”Excuse my ignorance, but can they not just stop selling bonds or are they legally bound to do so?”

 

Like Denim, I am not an economist, and so cannot answer his question.

 

Yes....astute observation. My bad there. More haste less speed.

Stop selling them or at least make them less attractive to investors.

 

I am supposing that investors are buying Thai bonds because they offer a reasonably good return over a set period of time.

 

The banks seem to like having lots of investors money on deposit ( no surprise there ) but if too much heat is produced as a consequence then the economy will suffer from an exchange rate that makes the baht strong but is bad for exports.

 

Also money received in return for bonds will presumably have to be returned to the investor somewhere down the line so profit has to be made from it within the set time frame.

 

As I said , I confess my own ignorance to business matters but as my grandfather used to say of life in general.

 

' There's 'out for ' nout '   and an excess of anything is usually not a good thing.

[Nobbie49]

Hello 1997....

Not likely, the ‘97 crash was because Th was drowning in foreign debt. That is not the case now. The country’s debt (aot private debt) is only 80% of GDP and mostly in Baht. Very healthy indeed.


Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[MartiniMan]

Hate to say I told you so but well here it is

Time to turn on the printing presses and give out some QE

[Artisi]

20 hours ago, soalbundy said:

where is Baldrick when you need him

Devising the next cunning what-ever ...... 

[overherebc]

8 minutes ago, Artisi said:

Devising the next cunning what-ever ...... 

I keep thinking of a song by Racey 1979??

 

Some banks say up, some banks say won't

Some banks say sell a lot of bonds and some say don't.

It's got my brain so dizzy, and I don't know why.

Some banks spout the figures and some banks lie.

 

anyone can write the rest of the song.

 

 

[emptypockets]

23 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

The higher it climbs, the harder it falls.

As western currencies are finding out! 70baht to the pound..... and now??? Oz dollar 33 baht now 20. it works both ways.

[Cadbury]

3 hours ago, MartinKal said:

Point is that Thailand is victim of trade wars and with its considerable foreign reserves, its seen as a safe-haven.

Meaning it's not able to master these situations.

 

But, okay, if the problem is the strong Baht, it can also be seen as an opportunity. An opportunity to restock from abroad at effectively lower prices. Why not use the strong Baht and the foreign reserves to rebuild the infrastructure of the country?

Thailand is no more a victim of the trade war than Vietnam or Myanmar or Cambodia and they are doing very nicely thank you, particularly Vietnam.

Thailand has just twigged after two years there are opportunities to be gained and are now venturing out doing what these countries did a long time ago. They have been asleep at the wheel in a manner of speaking.

On the face of it spending on infrastructure has merit but there would be an element of risk the money would end up being wasted with poorly planned projects with a guarantee of unintended consequences that weren't obvious in the design stages. 

 

 

[Mavideol]

On 8/28/2019 at 10:10 AM, Isaan sailor said:

If the sky high Baht is the main problem—why don’t they take drastic and immediate action?  Or does the loss of exports and tourism not seem important?

we all wonder why they don't (appear) to do anything to improve the situation, look at China, they are in a trade war with the US but to improve their exports they depreciated the cir currency (I know the US called them currency manipulators but the US is doing the same or similar) China  Yuan VS USD exchange was 1 USD = 6.80 Yuan/Rmb back mid July now Aug 29 it's 1 USD = 7.16 Yuan/Rmb that's a good example for Thailand to improve exports......

[the guest]

Other Asian neighbors are already cashing-in on the demise of Thailand. Looks like the country is in for a big shock soon, and will fall to earth with a massive bump!

[JohnOFphon]

30.5 to 1 USD.!!  The worst I have EVER seen in the 12 years I have been here..  Last 2 or 3 months, below 31 to 1. Sickening. 

[WeekendRaider]

25 minutes ago, JohnOFphon said:

30.5 to 1 USD.!!  The worst I have EVER seen in the 12 years I have been here..  Last 2 or 3 months, below 31 to 1. Sickening. 

it hasn't even adjusted to post Tehm Yung Gooong let alone the budget-deficit-driven trade deficits the USA has been running since the late 1990's..... and is running even bigger now.   throw ever higher post World War defense spending and Social Security and other retirement entitlements [sic] on that and..... we ain't finished yet:   
 

$12 trillion US in debt held or bid at negative rates for the first time in 243 years.  the rate inversion is misdirection on that because it began (that $12 trillion the Financial Times and other charted a few weeks ago) in 2015/2016 and spiked in 2019.  the correlation is not so obvious living in Thailand but if you live in Europe this year, or places in Manhattan and Texas with "fie daap" during heat waves you'd be a bit more tuned in for the "intellectual" stuff we folks who can read science journals were alerted to an even more immediate crisis impending in 2014 and 2015 (Hansen, GISS records, and the Stockholm PNAS Trajectories publication in review) which culminated in the first COP ever signed, what Iam Bremmer said would never ever happen.  that wasn't a signal for ya?????  

 

or 30 years below 2 percent for the first time in American history?????

 

or July 2019 the hottest month ever recorded since 1880 and 2019 barely touched a positive ENSO condition.

talk about bubbles!!!!!  and the Chinese eating our lunch is totally lame also by the way.  along with "it's only about some ice melting in 2100 something..... so vote for me Al Gore and Hillary".  liars.   all of them, merely outclassed by the man from NYC who didn't buy "we are winning! in South Vietnam" either.  this time the USA is not the 'go to' currency.   many smaller ones will take that up including the Yen. 

[Rookiescot]

On 8/28/2019 at 11:20 AM, johnc925 said:

they HAVE been selling bonds... the Chinese Govt (reportedly) have been buying them.

Yeah I think this is Chinese policy. Take the baht up to ludicrous value then sell all the bonds at once.

The central bank will have to buy them to try and avert a collapse which will happen anyway and when the market bottoms out the Chinese can march into Thailand and carpet bag everything. 

[Assurancetourix]

59 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Yeah I think this is Chinese policy. Take the baht up to ludicrous value then sell all the bonds at once.

The central bank will have to buy them to try and avert a collapse which will happen anyway and when the market bottoms out the Chinese can march into Thailand and carpet bag everything. 

I believe you are right;
it is a deliberate policy of China;
bringing Laos and Cambodia as new Chinese provinces was relatively easy;
for Thailand to become a next province they have found another solution which is this one.

[kirbi53]

I dream that one day hopefully soon enough it will be like Laos KIP 

8000 KIP for a can of ice coffee. 

That would be awesome ????

I hope it falls completely on its ass soon enough or the US officially classes the baht as a manipulated currency 

Too many conflicted news reports about it already 

[Nyezhov]

2 hours ago, WeekendRaider said:

it hasn't even adjusted to post Tehm Yung Gooong let alone the budget-deficit-driven trade deficits the USA has been running since the late 1990's..... and is running even bigger now.   throw ever higher post World War defense spending and Social Security and other retirement entitlements [sic] on that and..... we ain't finished yet:   
 

$12 trillion US in debt held or bid at negative rates for the first time in 243 years.  the rate inversion is misdirection on that because it began (that $12 trillion the Financial Times and other charted a few weeks ago) in 2015/2016 and spiked in 2019.  the correlation is not so obvious living in Thailand but if you live in Europe this year, or places in Manhattan and Texas with "fie daap" during heat waves you'd be a bit more tuned in for the "intellectual" stuff we folks who can read science journals were alerted to an even more immediate crisis impending in 2014 and 2015 (Hansen, GISS records, and the Stockholm PNAS Trajectories publication in review) which culminated in the first COP ever signed, what Iam Bremmer said would never ever happen.  that wasn't a signal for ya?????  

 

or 30 years below 2 percent for the first time in American history?????

 

or July 2019 the hottest month ever recorded since 1880 and 2019 barely touched a positive ENSO condition.

talk about bubbles!!!!!  and the Chinese eating our lunch is totally lame also by the way.  along with "it's only about some ice melting in 2100 something..... so vote for me Al Gore and Hillary".  liars.   all of them, merely outclassed by the man from NYC who didn't buy "we are winning! in South Vietnam" either.  this time the USA is not the 'go to' currency.   many smaller ones will take that up including the Yen. 

what does all that mean?

[lkv]

18 hours ago, JohnOFphon said:

30.5 to 1 USD.!!  The worst I have EVER seen in the 12 years I have been here..  Last 2 or 3 months, below 31 to 1. Sickening. 

20 Apr 2013,  28.67.

 

 

[brokenbone]

15 hours ago, Nyezhov said:

what does all that mean?

he is on some kind of drug