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what is going on/baht

rodknock

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KhaoYai Platinum Member

KhaoYai

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, madmen said:

Economy is in decent shape with massive foreign reserves, why should it drop? 

 

That's the story that's put about - talk to business owners. Both Thai and foreign report things are not good and getting worse.

 

I'm no expert but I was told they've been propping the baht up since the coup. As far as I know, the only way they can do that is with gold and foreign reserves - surely what they have left aint massive. Reports are one thing, the truth may differ.

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KhunBENQ Star Member

KhunBENQ

Posted
Posted

Maybe numbers for other expats can dry your tears?

 

From one year (only) charts (from xe.com), high/low (rounded):

 

GPB loosing 16%   (43.57 -> 36.69)

EUR loosing 13%   (38.18 -> 33.22)

USD loosing  9%    (33.30 -> 30.34)

 

The EUR yesterday got another kick in the ... by trillion Euro gambler Draghi.

 

AUD (Australia) loosing 16%.

NOK (Norway) loosing 17%.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1Y

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=THB&view=1Y

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=1Y
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=THB&view=1Y

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=NOK&to=THB&view=1Y

 

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KhunBENQ Star Member

KhunBENQ

Posted
Posted

And that was only the short term one year losses.

"Historical" numbers (10 years) can really make you cry.

GBP -40%, EUR -34%.

USD -21% and that includes an extreme short drop in 2013 (can't remember why that was).
Low at 28.64 in 2013.

Others are at about their 10 year lows now.

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madmen Gold Member

madmen

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

alk to business owners. Both Thai and foreign report things are not good and getting worse.

How Many  business owners do you really know outside of crappy beer bars? Are big corporate CEOs reporting to you..that's rhetorical 

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KhaoYai Platinum Member

KhaoYai

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, madmen said:

How Many  business owners do you really know outside of crappy beer bars? Are big corporate CEOs reporting to you..that's rhetorical 

That may be the side of Thailand that you know but I don't know any beer bar owners, neither are there any within 100km of where I live. I don't claim not to have been in a beer bar, my first few years of visiting Thailand was full of beer bars and go-go's but that was then and this is now.

 

I do know the owner of my local SCG franchise, I know the manager of my local Homepro and I know the family that own a very large DIY and building supply company. Without exception, all of them say business is terrible - with the SCG branch reporting its worst ever year so far.  I know the Thai/Foreign owners of a smallish bar/restaurant/resort who say this is the worst year for many and my friend who works at a large hotel in Phuket tells me that in August the occupancy rate was around 20% - August may not be high season but 20% is way lower that they are used to.

 

Would you like any more references, their phone numbers etc.? Or are you too busy swilling beer in your bar?

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ThePioneer Apprentice Member

ThePioneer

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

And that was only the short term one year losses.

"Historical" numbers (10 years) can really make you cry.

GBP -40%, EUR -34%.

USD -21% and that includes an extreme short drop in 2013 (can't remember why that was).
Low at 28.64 in 2013.

Others are at about their 10 year lows now.

Look at what the Euro did during the first 8 months of 2015, and you will realize that in currency markets nothing is impossible

 

 

image.png.7e9f65857f27c27a4418b380ca317cad.png

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DaRoadrunner Gold Member

DaRoadrunner

Posted
Posted

Launder and repeat. It would not surprise me if we see a repeat of 1997. Once the powers that be have drained the Gov't coffers for mega projects and taken their 'commission', we may see a Chavalit style transfer of funds to US$ / £. Only then will the Baht have the rug pulled out from under it and be seen in free fall. Once it hits bottom they will transfer all their ill gotten gains back into Baht again.

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madmen Gold Member

madmen

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, KhaoYai said:

Without exception, all of them say business is terrible

Welcome to Thailand and TV where even in high season Everyone including hookers to business owners are never happy.

 

Here is a challenge for you , show me 5 posts by any business owners  that we're thrilled with amazing profits in the last 10 years.. of course you cant because since TVs inception is been downhill for the economy..just non stop BS

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Estrada Gold Member

Estrada

Posted
Posted

Baht needs to stay high whilst the trains and major imported equipment for the BTS and BEM Mass Transit Projects, as well as submarines and other military equipment are delivered. Dollar/Baht is still B30.23 (not B29.96) if you funds are coming via T/T from overseas. Superrich wil give you B30.35 for $50 cash

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vukovar77 Senior Member

vukovar77

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

And that was only the short term one year losses.

"Historical" numbers (10 years) can really make you cry.

GBP -40%, EUR -34%.

USD -21% and that includes an extreme short drop in 2013 (can't remember why that was).
Low at 28.64 in 2013.

Others are at about their 10 year lows now.

So,for people who have a pretty much THB on Thai bank accounts ,it is a great,right?They can buy much more USD or EUR than they could a year before.For people who live from remittance from home country ,it is a bad.For the most of Thai economy,strong THB is not good,but for a most importers it is very good ,etc.

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sometimewoodworker Ruby Member

sometimewoodworker

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, rodknock said:

bangkok bank today under30baht to the dollar!!!!

when and if this will ever change and go down??

It isn't that the Baht is strong or that the economy is really good. It is just much less bad than most of the others

 

It is that the US presidential trade (and other) policies are a disaster with a humongous and fast growing national debt.

 

The British have pulled down the currency despite having reasonable, to good, trade by the brexit situation.

 

The E.U. is being pulled down by countries like Greece and the appalling financial situations they are in.

 

So if you want the Baht to down against the dollar clean up the US situation and it will.

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TheGhostWithin Silver Member

TheGhostWithin

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, vukovar77 said:

So,for people who have a pretty much THB on Thai bank accounts ,it is a great,right?They can buy much more USD or EUR than they could a year before.For people who live from remittance from home country ,it is a bad.For the most of Thai economy,strong THB is not good,but for a most importers it is very good ,etc.

Many of us are doing just that. It's been a fantastic investment especially if you're an Aussie or Kiwi. 

 

I'm also taking my first trip to Vietnam in two weeks, to learn about the Vietnamese coffee making industry.

 

When it falls, back below the median 36 month average Thailand will get back what I have just taken out.

 

And if they come to their senses and open certain activities to foreigners, I may even start or invest in a local business. Until then, my businesses stay in Australia and New Zealand and I wait patiently, or die trying. 

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HHTel Silver Member

HHTel

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, WalkingOrders said:

I show it at 30.41, pressure from American side to shave rate vs coming dowturn in Thai economy. Questions remain on where asian money runs to safety. Thailand an increasingly strange place to park if you ask me.

That's the interbank rate.  The banks will always be less.

 

Quote

GPB loosing 16%   (43.57 -> 36.69)

Surprisingly, GBP touched 38 on xe yesterday.  36+ was almost 2 weeks ago.

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Isaan sailor Platinum Member

Isaan sailor

Posted
Posted

Let me weigh in on this, at the risk of another lambasting from the T.V. Baht apologists.  And let me further state this is purely conjecture with some supporting facts.

If you look at the chart patterns of today’s currencies vs Baht—you will notice similar chart patterns with all western currencies nosediving,  And curiously, the Chinese Yuan does a complete reverse—same chart pattern, but skyrocketing up.

Why? I believe TAT wants a million MORE Chinese tourists (or more).  To do this, they have to bring the Chinese Yuan up vs. the Baht.  For BoT to raise the Yuan—they have to lower the USD.  And when USD sinks, related western currencies follow it down.

I once traded currencies (now mainly stocks).  When you see chart pattern like these—it’s a red flag.

BoT has controls on hot money inflows.  They can step on the brakes—or hit the gas...

OK T.V. Baht apologists—have at me...

 

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NightSky Silver Member

NightSky

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

That may be the side of Thailand that you know but I don't know any beer bar owners, neither are there any within 100km of where I live. I don't claim not to have been in a beer bar, my first few years of visiting Thailand was full of beer bars and go-go's but that was then and this is now.

 

I do know the owner of my local SCG franchise, I know the manager of my local Homepro and I know the family that own a very large DIY and building supply company. Without exception, all of them say business is terrible - with the SCG branch reporting its worst ever year so far.  I know the Thai/Foreign owners of a smallish bar/restaurant/resort who say this is the worst year for many and my friend who works at a large hotel in Phuket tells me that in August the occupancy rate was around 20% - August may not be high season but 20% is way lower that they are used to.

 

Would you like any more references, their phone numbers etc.? Or are you too busy swilling beer in your bar?

I know several small Thai business owners all whom report business is <deleted>, nothing to do with beer bars either mainly businesses like aircon sales and cleaning, restaurant owners, printers etc. Coincidence?

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watcharacters Gold Member

watcharacters

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Just1Voice said:

I've been saying for the past 5 years or so that the baht is being propped up to benefit the coupe makers, and eventually there is going to be a major crash.  I'm just waiting...biding my time. 

 

Good thing you didn't include holding your breath.

 

 

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Thaidream Advanced Member

Thaidream

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Fore Man said:

Keep going, strengthening baht. Shortly, when I transfer my funds back to the US, I’ll get increasingly more dollars. But...bear in mind that whatever goes up...

 

The fat lady hasn’t sung yet!

Not yet- but it's getting close.  I see many parrallels with the 97 crash and if it comes it will come quick. The Dollar/pound/Euro will surge wildly for the first week and then settle down at a rate way above the current rates.  If the pressure comes and the hot money starts a big exodus- Thailand may try to stop is by using it's foreign reserves/

 

The things I watch out for are an overall lagging economy- tourism down;  new car purchases low; public companies not reporting any upward motion and a rise in inflation.  Throw in an oversupply of Condo's with slow purchases and projects that are being built but workage is stopped.

 

Also don't forget the Thai budget is in deficit and being propped up by selling bonds on the open market. At some point-interest rates will have to rise to keep this money flowing. 

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KhunBENQ Star Member

KhunBENQ

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, ThePioneer said:

Look at what the Euro did during the first 8 months of 2015, and you will realize that in currency markets nothing is impossible

Yes, give me hope :smile:

I am still not desperate enough to transfer the remaining Euros for this terrible rate.

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KhunBENQ Star Member

KhunBENQ

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, HHTel said:

Surprisingly, GBP touched 38 on xe yesterday.  36+ was almost 2 weeks ago.

Yes, I probably took the wrong approach with highest/lowest rate of past year.

Today 37.86 right now.

Always best to have a look at the charts.

 

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