moontang Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 You know that BBC reporter who always breaks down in tears, in front of orphanages, and immigrant worker housing? Yesterday, she broke down in tears again...in front of the Super Rich money exchange on Sukhumvit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isaan sailor Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, Brer said: No denying the BoT is controlled by the regime when the appointment comes from the Finance minister who is a General P appointment. The new Finance minister though recently stated that there would be no interference into the banks monetary policy which in Thailand means do as I say, read that any way you want. The capital inflows are probably getting to a stage where they have to take some action, what they come up with might give us some relieve. Thanks for your input, Brer. We seem to be in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUNROAMIN Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Yeah, many countries are not doing so well with their economies, so the value of their money has gone down, however, it seems strange that while the rest of the world is sliding into recession, Thailand a, (third world country) seems to be powering ahead with a strong Barht while business, farming and tourism is at a all time low. Seems to me Thailand's over inflated Barht will take a dive sooner than later, especially when foreign investors are looking for their returns. It would be interesting to see who is propping up Thailand with the cash to stay afloat. Maybe, when we find out it will be another Hong Kong all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emptypockets Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 17 hours ago, ThePioneer said: I assume you don't get your pension sent from overseas, because you sure wouldn't have so much joy Why do you assume every poster is a pensioner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smudger1951 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Arriving in Suvannabhumi recently the long queues indicated buoyant tourism numbers yet Pattaya was devoid of farangs. Businesses must be suffering down the economic chain. But more broadly things will only change when export manufacturing lays off large numbers of people and tax revenues sufferand I never hear that. Are large corporations pulling out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brer Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, smudger1951 said: Arriving in Suvannabhumi recently the long queues indicated buoyant tourism numbers yet Pattaya was devoid of farangs. Don’t think I have ever been in a short queue, long queues are because they don’t have enough IO’s working. Maybe that’s the plan cunningly cut a few IO’s and make it look busy. Tourism is booming, nothing wrong with the baht boss as I transfer a few more million into my Swiss bank account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhaoYai Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 9 hours ago, NightSky said: I know several small Thai business owners all whom report business is <deleted>, nothing to do with beer bars either mainly businesses like aircon sales and cleaning, restaurant owners, printers etc. Coincidence? No idea as the word your post turns on has been deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhaoYai Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 8 hours ago, Suradit69 said: You really think currencies rise and fall because governments are buying and selling gold? So the sinking GBP could be rescued if Bojo asked the Queen to flog some of her stash? Brace yourself but have you heard that Harry Truman is no longer president of the US and the 24/7 worldwide currency markets respond to a host of influences geopolitical, economic, real or rumored. A small country would struggle to prop up or push down its currency rate even briefly and even comparatively wealthy economies like China, the US or the EU rarely get their way trying to move their currencies ... and they certainly don't spend much time buying or selling gold in an attempt to move currency markets. And that aside, for what reason would Thailand want an overly strong baht. It makes exports expensive, makes investment less attractive to foreign businesses, discourages tourism ... As I said, I've been told............and its a popular viewpoint. All I know is that the baht seems stronger than it should and without good reason. When a country has a coup, the currency usually becomes toilet paper for a while whilst things are sorted out - the baht got stronger. When the UK referendum results started to come in, the pound started to lose value immediately and that was just a referendum, not a coup - Thailand has problems yet its currency gets stronger. To me, that suggests manipulation. However, after all this time, I struggle to see how, if they are propping the baht up, they can still be doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HHTel Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 7 hours ago, DUNROAMIN said: Thailand a, (third world country) The term 1st 2nd and 3rd world countries have fallen in dis-use and replaced by Least Developed Countries (LDC), Developing Countries and The Global South. According to data from the UN, Thailand falls into the category of 'Developing Countries'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoadWarrior371 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 8 hours ago, andy72 said: the law on gravity iswhat goes up must come down thailand in no way can justify such a strong currency remember soros and sterling the baht will take one hell of a tumble and all you guys with their 800k in the bank good luck with that but all you experts on this forum ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Why should the guys with 800K in the bank care? It will be there till they expire, and still be 800K regardless of what happens to the 3rd world currencies like the pound or euro. If you are so sure it will tumble, place your bet and make 1000% return. Oh wait, you are not that sure. Just another bar-stool economist....???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joecoolfrog Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 12 hours ago, Percy P said: While many tourists are still coming to Thailand with a minimum of 20,000 Baht or equivalent money and the Dollar losing it value the exchange ratewill stay high. Well done Thailand. You do realise that the high baht is hurting Thailand ....actually given some of you previous posts you probably dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fore Man Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, RoadWarrior371 said: Why should the guys with 800K in the bank care? It will be there till they expire, and still be 800K regardless of what happens to the 3rd world currencies like the pound or euro. If you are so sure it will tumble, place your bet and make 1000% return. Oh wait, you are not that sure. Just another bar-stool economist....???? What’s to stop Immigration from revaluing the 800K to a higher number if the THB takes a long term beating? If the baht does fall, almost everything we buy here that is imported will simply be price-adjusted, especially durable goods. A $65,000 four cylinder Camry that costs $35,000 in the US will run even higher. Ditto for air conditioners, refrigerators, consumer electronics, imported furniture etc. Any devaluation of the baht will be very meaningful to expats living on fixed incomes who need to acquire such goods. Global monetary ebbs and flows tend to offset one another and adjustments are made by importers accordingly. One thing is certain...Thai retailing businesses will retain their profit margins and their leeching government that collects duties and taxes will not lose money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoadWarrior371 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, Fore Man said: What’s to stop Immigration from revaluing the 800K to a higher number if the THB takes a long term beating? If the baht does fall, almost everything we buy here that is imported will simply be price-adjusted, especially durable goods. A $65,000 four cylinder Camry that costs $35,000 in the US will run even higher. Ditto for air conditioners, refrigerators, consumer electronics, imported furniture etc. Any devaluation of the baht will be very meaningful to expats living on fixed incomes who need to acquire such goods. Global monetary ebbs and flows tend to offset one another and adjustments are made by importers accordingly. One thing is certain...Thai retailing businesses will retain their profit margins and their leeching government that collects duties and taxes will not lose money. Wwwwwwwwhat if..... what if Aliens land and they take your bargirl? Will she love them longtime? Longer? Live in the real world, dude, pull your money out if that real world changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hans007 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 52 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said: You do realise that the high baht is hurting Thailand ....actually given some of you previous posts you probably dont. The strong Bath is very convenient for the Thai politicians...who getting ther income in Bath....so if the bath is strong they can buy more USD,EUR or CHF or whatever they want.....hehehehehe. They dont give a vok about Thailand or Tourism or the lower class Thai people. Its all a monkey show. Hans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancelot01 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 On 9/13/2019 at 12:35 PM, KhaoYai said: That's the story that's put about - talk to business owners. Both Thai and foreign report things are not good and getting worse. I'm no expert but I was told they've been propping the baht up since the coup. As far as I know, the only way they can do that is with gold and foreign reserves - surely what they have left aint massive. Reports are one thing, the truth may differ. Foreign reserves including access to retirees 'deposits'. B400k for 12 months and B800k for five months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HHTel Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 5 hours ago, Lancelot01 said: Foreign reserves including access to retirees 'deposits'. B400k for 12 months and B800k for five months. Another one who thinks that expats statutory bank savings count for something and we are feathering the nests of the authorities. As said before it's a tiny tiny drop in a very large ocean. Expats savings are insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RBOP Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 I predict 27 to 25 within 2 - 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HHTel Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 I don't believe anyone can predict where the GBP/THB is going to be in a year's time never mind any further. Despite the rising baht, GBP is currently on a 6 week high against both the baht and the dollar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/14/2019 at 3:40 PM, Thaidream said: The Chinese Communist Party controls the Yuan and could care less about Thailand. Their mision is to keep the Yuan at a rate acceptible to the USA as they need to move it up and down at any particular time dependent on what the US does regarding Tariffs, Interest rate and bond purchases. Thailand does not have enough money to affect the Yuan/ IMO Thailand is playing a dangerous game- allowing hot money in without any real capital controls and using it to keep it's currency high to avoid being branded a currency manipulator by the US. In addition- the strong Baht reduces the cost of all those overseas purchases. If Boris can get the UK out of the EU with a negotiated settlemnt I expect both the Pound and Euro to move up a little but a hard exit will cause big problems. Trump is also finding the Chinese unwilling to bend on the trade problem so I expect he will get a 'small deal' as we move closer to 2020 ans an election. The Fed will lower interest rates and the dollar will also move up a little. Thailand's economy will continue it's downward spiral. Agree with most of what you say....except the part about the US fed lowering interest rates. That would weaken the USD. Unless you're talking about the Thai fed lowering interest rates, which would be a good idea about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainNemo Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/13/2019 at 7:15 PM, KhunBENQ said: Maybe numbers for other expats can dry your tears? From one year (only) charts (from xe.com), high/low (rounded): GPB loosing 16% (43.57 -> 36.69) EUR loosing 13% (38.18 -> 33.22) USD loosing 9% (33.30 -> 30.34) The EUR yesterday got another kick in the ... by trillion Euro gambler Draghi. AUD (Australia) loosing 16%. NOK (Norway) loosing 17%. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=1Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=THB&view=1Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=1Yhttps://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=THB&view=1Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=NOK&to=THB&view=1Y All for different reasons... you can see how the GBP has been affected by Brexit, so once that's over with the fundamentals will bring it back up. The EUR, on the other hand has very different (debt and low growth) issues to face, which should bring it down. USD seems to be mostly about China's debt problem, which has many months to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainNemo Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/14/2019 at 8:51 AM, Fore Man said: Keep going, strengthening baht. Shortly, when I transfer my funds back to the US, I’ll get increasingly more dollars. But...bear in mind that whatever goes up... The fat lady hasn’t sung yet! I think in 6 months from now, if/when China's debt crisis is in the news, will be a different story in Toyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spidermike007 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/13/2019 at 6:35 PM, KhaoYai said: That's the story that's put about - talk to business owners. Both Thai and foreign report things are not good and getting worse. I'm no expert but I was told they've been propping the baht up since the coup. As far as I know, the only way they can do that is with gold and foreign reserves - surely what they have left aint massive. Reports are one thing, the truth may differ. I do not think that is true. There is so much money coming into the SET, and foreign investments in manufacturing, that they do not need to prop up the baht. I do not think they could, even if they wanted to. I do not think they have enough cash reserves to do so. If anything, it is hurting the nation on so many levels. Would be absolutely dumb and dumber to prop up the baht. The nation should be doing just the opposite, if it was in a position to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalkingOrders Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 On 9/14/2019 at 10:07 AM, HHTel said: That's the interbank rate. The banks will always be less. Surprisingly, GBP touched 38 on xe yesterday. 36+ was almost 2 weeks ago. You will find this unbelievable I suppose, but with a 200 THB charge, Bangkok bank gives me the same rate as interbank less probably a coupla pips, better then I get on any trading platform. The rate that hits me is always the same showing on the board. Transferring through BKK NYC nothing beats it. Straight from Uncle sam, Direct deposit to my account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zhorik Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Thai foreign reserves are at an all time high of 220169.71 USD Million august 2019, its money supply is contracting. the central bank balance sheet is increasing. so the baht is rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 USD up on the back of Saudi oil incident. Noises seen to indicate that USD will continue to strengthen due to this but it will also depend on fed decisions and noise which is due tomorrow I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 9 hours ago, stament said: USD up on the back of Saudi oil incident. Noises seen to indicate that USD will continue to strengthen due to this but it will also depend on fed decisions and noise which is due tomorrow I believe. USD up? It's parked at 30.38 right now. And if the US Fed cuts interest rates, should weaken the dollar even more. But there are other factors, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stament Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Berkshire said: USD up? It's parked at 30.38 right now. And if the US Fed cuts interest rates, should weaken the dollar even more. But there are other factors, so who knows. Was up then went back down. Cut is built into current rate as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berkshire Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 17 hours ago, stament said: Was up then went back down. Cut is built into current rate as expected It seems the market was expecting a bigger cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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