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Experts warn unemployment will rise as world economy slows down

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Experts warn unemployment will rise as world economy slows down

By The Nation

 

800_2ffc35b78fe38a1.jpg?v=1569210519

Anusorn Tamajai

 

The Economic and Business Research Center for Reform at Rangsit University’s Institute of Economics predicts Thailand’s ease of doing business will improve due to positive impacts of long-term investment, but fears that in the short term, the unemployment rate will rise and personal income will fall due to the domestic and global economy slowdown.

 

The Centre’s director Asst Prof Dr Anusorn Tamajai said the country’s ease of doing business rate, which will be announced next month by the World Bank, should see an improvement. “Our rating should benefit from long-term investment and increased efficiency of state agencies due to digital transformation,” he said. “However, some government efforts are still plagued by overwhelming procedures that cause delays as we can see from its belated attempt to solve the flood situation in Ubon Ratchathani.”

 

According to Anusorn, in the next 6 months unemployment rate will rise while personal income will decrease due to the slowdown of domestic and global economies. “World economic expansion hit its lowest point in 10 years or 2.9 per cent,” he said. “In August, exports decreased by 4 per cent while imports plunged by 14.6 per cent, reflecting a change in consumers’ behaviour.”

 

It is unlikely that the export sector will improve in the last quarter. If any improvement is visible, it won’t come until early next year at the soonest, he added.

 

Furthermore, Anusorn also said that the decreasing exports and domestic consumption over the past 8 months will start affecting the manufacturing and employment sectors more violently. “Expansion in transport equipment sector decreased by -10.7 per cent from previously forecast, the computer and electronic sector decreased by -9.5 per cent, the chemical sector by -6.9 per cent, the mining sector by -3.4 per cent, and the automotive sector by -3.2 per cent,” he said.

 

“In the next 6 months, labourers who earn Bt15,000-Bt20,000 will be at high risk of getting their working hours cut and eventually be replaced by robots and automatic systems,” said the director. “Meanwhile, workers 50 years old and over will be at the highest risk of being laid off.”

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30376581

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-09-23

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2 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

You don't need to be an 'expert' to see the way things are going.   As for Robots replacing Labourer's; i think that's a good idea as things may get built better than they are now !

That might be wishful thinking when it comes to construction. I am sure the robots will be programmed by the people in charge of funding to maintain the same proportions of cement to sand.

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30 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

This is the most over employed place I have ever seen.

The true unemployment rate now should be about 10% +.

6 to 8 employees on every aisle at Homepro.

6 to 10 staff at various stations at a hospital.

Same at the mall stores.

Many people just standing around at various stores/businesses on their phones everywhere doing nothing.

 

It all seems they hire 3 people for a job that a competent single person could do themselves.

Just strange.

I’ve always said the same thing.  Without so many makework/redundant positions I wonder what the true unemployment rate would be.  

 

When I was at Changwattana recently and had to pay my TM30 fine, there was one person to fill out the receipt and a second person sitting right next to the first to collect the money and issue change. 

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4 hours ago, webfact said:

Experts warn unemployment will rise as world economy slows down

I'm am expert, too:

When the gold price goes up it will be more expensive to buy gold. There.

Edited by klauskunkel
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Making it sound like there aren't enough 7/11 and HomeHubs/Watsadus to soak up every single person 😆

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Is there anyone who can explain to me how it works? The Thai economy goes up month after month, and all this with a sick world economy!
There are already so many unemployed in Thailand, if unemployment increases, who will still work?

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1 hour ago, Airalee said:

I’ve always said the same thing.  Without so many makework/redundant positions I wonder what the true unemployment rate would be.  

 

When I was at Changwattana recently and had to pay my TM30 fine, there was one person to fill out the receipt and a second person sitting right next to the first to collect the money and issue change. 

 

This is actually done to help impede corruption.  The more people you put into a protocol, the more likely it is there will be cracks in collusion. Sure, they can still conspire to accept bribes, but it becomes more likely that petty differences and rivalries will erupt to keep things in check, at least at the lower levels.

 

That way, substantial corruption is limited only to those in charge. It is actually a finely honed system developed over decades. I wouldn't suggest changing this in government offices. Accepting the inefficiencies of this is better than the alternative.

 

As for the hordes of workers at HomePro, it is like solving a maze trying to figure out how to get to the aisle you want without being attacked by them. Right up until you actually have a legitimate question. Then, they all scatter, and the ones you can catch don't know anything. Someone could make a really good video game based on this. Most of them are just salesman anyway, incentivized by a specific manufacturer to try and get you to purchase their product and give you misleading information about competing brands.

 

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2 hours ago, Cadbury said:

That might be wishful thinking when it comes to construction. I am sure the robots will be programmed by the people in charge of funding to maintain the same proportions of cement to sand.

They build houses using 3d printers already.

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5 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

You don't need to be an 'expert' to see the way things are going.   As for Robots replacing Labourer's; i think that's a good idea as things may get built better than they are now !

Robotics, and Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) are the way forward, and the future for Manufacturing Nations such as Thailand.

A Robot, once installed and programmed will perform the same task 24/7 /365, and to the highest degree of accuracy, and repeatability.

It does not have Holidays, Sick Days or time of for Lunch and rest breaks Etc.Etc Etc

Unfortunetly, the down side is that people are made redundant when Automation arrives, and have to find alternative ways of earning Money to exist.

Thailand does not have as such a vibrant Service Sector Etc that can absorb these people into Employment, nor does it have a World Class Education System to Educate these people for jobs that require the high Skills demanded of modern Business.

The picture is not a Rosy one I think for this Country, and there are only so many Aisles in Homepro and any other service outlet

 

Edited by Cake Monster
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3 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

It all seems they hire 3 people for a job that a competent single person could do themselves.

Just strange.

Not strange at all... 3 people sharing one normal salary !

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