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Thailand slashes growth and export forecasts again, holds key rate


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Thailand slashes growth and export forecasts again, holds key rate

By Orathai Sriring and Kitiphong Thaichareon

 

2019-09-25T071806Z_1_LYNXMPEF8O0CY_RTROPTP_4_THAILAND-ECONOMY-CENBANK.JPG

Thailand's central bank is seen at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva/File Photo GLOBAL BUSINESS WEEK AHEAD PACKAGE SEARCH BUSINESS WEEK AHEAD JUNE 27 FOR ALL IMAGES

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday while cutting its forecast for 2019 economic growth and predicting exports will shrink this year, hurting domestic demand.

 

The Bank of Thailand (BOT)'s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep the one-day repurchase rate <THCBIR=ECI> at 1.50%.

 

The BOT trimmed its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.3% seen in June.Exports, a key driver of economic growth, are now expected shrink 1% this year, compared with no increase seen earlier.

 

It's the fourth time in nine months that economic forecasts were cut.

 

Thailand is facing sagging growth, below-target inflation, a climbing baht, risks to financial stability, lower growth of tourism and sinking consumer confidence.

 

Wednesday's downgrades of forecasts "are not a surprise", said Thammarat Kittisiripat, economist of Tisco group. "If downside risks do not deteriorate, the policy rate will probably stay unchanged for the rest of the year."

 

POOR OUTLOOK?

 

But Capital Economics, which had expected a cut on Wednesday, said it still predicts one before the year-end given "the poor outlook for the economy".

 

The MPC committee said the current policy rate remains "accommodative" and should contribute to growth and support a rise in headline inflation.

 

"Financial stability risks had already been addressed to some extent, although there remained pockets of risks that warranted monitoring. The BOT also expressed concern about the strength of the baht <THB=TH>, Asia's best performing currency this year, with a rise of nearly 6.5% against the U.S. dollar.

 

Thirteen of 20 analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted no policy change, while the others saw a 25 basis-point cut.

 

In August, the MPC unexpectedly voted 5-2 to cut the rate by a quarter point, the first easing since April 2015.

 

Sarun Sunansathaporn, Bank of Ayudhya economist, said Wednesdays' unanimous vote suggested a smaller chance of a second rate cut this year, but called one is not enough" and predicted another by December.

 

On Sept. 19, Indonesia cut rates for a third straight month to aid growth, while the Philippines will likely make its third cut this year on Thursday.

 

In April-June, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew 2.3%, the weakest annual pace in almost five years, as exports slumped.

 

ING sees similar growth in the current quarter and has cut its full-year 2019 growth outlook to 2.5% from 2.8%. To try to boost the economy, the government launched $10 billion stimulus measures last month, and Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana said more can be done if needed. The central bank cut its 2019 headline inflation projection to 0.8% from 1.0% seen earlier. The BOT now predicts 39.7 million foreign tourists this year, compared with 39.9 million forecast three months ago.

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-09-25
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6 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

The BOT now predicts 39.7 million foreign tourists this year, compared with 39.9 million forecast three months ago.

Not unless they cut their rate by a further 25 basis points as a minimum . People aren't going come and spend money here if the exchange doesn't get a lot better .

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29 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Exports, a key driver of economic growth, are now expected shrink 1% this year, compared with no increase seen earlier.

1% ??? After it went down 9.8% (excluding gold which Thailand isn't mining anyway) in August?

 

Keep it up as long as you can please.... because the higher you fly, the harder you fall

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From 39.9 mil to 39.7 mil. - wow absolute wow!, who dreams up these fairy tales. Any country with a booming tourist wouldn't even think about reporting such a minute change either negative or positive, it's equivalent to peeing in the ocean. 

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1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

 

Thailand is facing sagging growth, below-target inflation, a climbing baht, risks to financial stability, lower growth of tourism and sinking consumer confidence.

 

On the plus side a recent survey ( amongst military men ) found that Thai people have never been so happy and are not the least upset that everything is getting steadily worse. 

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1 hour ago, worgeordie said:

Growth down,Tourists down,Exports down, 

But spending way up,with no end in sight.

regards Worgeordie

Perhaps those with plenty or the capacity to spend on behalf of others consider the elevated purchasing power of the baht as  a compensation?

If,  rather than when, the Baht  drops  and  the economic  situation stays the same  the advantage to the former will still  be at a enhanced advantage?

 

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2 hours ago, HeyHeyHey said:

1% ??? After it went down 9.8% (excluding gold which Thailand isn't mining anyway) in August?

 

Keep it up as long as you can please.... because the higher you fly, the harder you fall

Need more time to get those bahts overseas at xx then get them back at xx times 2. ????

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3 hours ago, mok199 said:

What the ***** will it take to lower this baht...

Did you not get it??? This is the military Super THB ... It's just getting stronger and stronger. THB will be better and bigger than USD, they will take over the world.
Be prepared for the biggest BOOOOM in the economic world ...
It's going to be a BIG one when it is detonated ..

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The figures they using optimistic dream at best .

rates should of been cut to 1.25 long ago and posibly needed go to 1.0

Can't believe it went up to 1.75 then all they really done was adjust it to pre currency crisis value
Complete cockup and it hurting exports pretty bad .

Suppose it makes the navy ship, helicopters and personel carriers look cheaper though lol .

This government making yingluck and her brother look trustworthy and diligent lol .

Tourism ruined, rice and rubber export ruined, democracy image ruined, what next ...

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MPC cuts growth estimate to just 2.8%

By THE NATION

 

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Titanun

 

The Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday (September 25) reduced its forecast for economic growth this year from 3.3 to 2.8 per cent and for next year from 3.7 to 3.3 per cent.

 

“This is the fourth adjustment since last year,” said its secretary, Titanun Mallikamas. “In June 2018 the committee estimated GDP growth at 4.2 per cent, and then later adjusted it to 3.8, 3.3 and 2.8 per cent, for a total 1.4-per-cent decrease from the original estimate.”

 

He said the committee based its latest decision on the economy expanding at a slower rate than expected, especially in the export sector. 

 

“We previously predicted exports to hold at 0 per cent but then had to adjust that to minus-1 per cent due to the stronger baht. The slowdown in exports is starting to affect domestic demand and private investment, while reduced employment is lowering domestic consumption as well.”

 

The committee also revised its projection for import expansion from 0.3 to minus-3.6 per cent and for public investment from 3.8 to 2.5 per cent.

 

“Other factors were foreign trade disputes, the decline in tourism, rising household debt and the effects of natural disasters,” Titanun said. 

 

“The government’s economic stimulus packages have helped maintain GDP at this level. Without those, it would have gone down even lower.”

 

The committee, however, increased its estimate for the current account from US$29.1 billion to $34.2 billion in 2019 and from $26.3 billion to $30.4 billion in 2020. 

 

“This was due to increased gold exports thanks to spiking gold prices,” Titanun said.

 

The downward revisions elsewhere, though, made it clear that the committee is somewhat more pessimistic about the economy than the Asian Development Bank, which on Wednesday lowered its GDP forecast for 2019 from 3.9 to 3 per cent.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30376733

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-09-26
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9 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand is facing sagging growth, below-target inflation, a climbing baht, risks to financial stability, lower growth of tourism and sinking consumer confidence.

Is there any need to remind people who has presided over this economic mess? An authoritarian, ex military general and junta leader come undemocratically elected Prime Minister who has had no formal economic education or financial management experience. He has only ever been a soldier boy.

What other outcome was there ever going to be?

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