Britain tells EU: compromise on Brexit or we'll get nasty: Spectator source

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, blazes said:

Rather simple answer, chum:  the smaller countries have a very profitable export market in the UK.

Another brexit argument based on assumption, the assumption that trade will remain the same.

Do you really think that exporting to the UK will remain profitable. Many exporters, both sides of the channel are going to take one look at the additional costs and turn to their domestic markets. In the UK that will probably lead to downsizing for many businesses.

Which side of the channel has the greater potential for new customers?

 

It says there would be “immediate changes” to procedures for businesses trading with the EU — and the details make it clear they involve more bureaucracy. The papers reveal that UK companies exporting and importing to and from the bloc face a mass of new red tape — potentially devastating for smaller firms.

https://www.euronews.com/2018/12/19/how-would-uk-eu-trade-be-affected-by-a-no-deal-brexit

[jayboy]

4 hours ago, stephenterry said:

This report is a damning indictment of the financial implications of Brexit. Which in no small way has adversely affected me and my family, by the baht dropping to a new low today. While not at starvation levels, the impact on others in similar situations is just as great, and as such, the leavers rhetorical mantra of exiting the EU on October 31st with or without a deal leaves an everlasting sour taste in my mouth.

 

And for what?  Has anyone on here been screwed like this by the EU? Don't think so. I can't wait for the comeuppance for the tory party at the forthcoming GE.  Reap what you sow, and what goes around comes around.

This is pretty superficial stuff.Ultimately currency trends have little to do with Brexit notwithstanding short term reactions.In any case Sterling has been on a downward trend with the US$ for decades.But there's no reason to expect the £ to decline long term against the Euro, Brexit or not.

 

Looking at the big picture -

 

General de Gaulle

"Britain has, in all her work, very special, very original habits and traditions… In short, the nature, structure, circumstances peculiar to England, are different from those of other continentals… How can Britain in the way that she lives, produces, trades be incorporated into the Common Market as it has been conceived and as it functions?"

 

That was the problem then and to a great extent it still is.

 

[dunroaming]

21 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Britain tells EU: compromise on Brexit or we'll get nasty:

Not Britain, just a few stupid morons who are incapable of acting like grown-ups and who seem to be consistently shooting themselves in the foot!  No surprise there then.

[blazes]

43 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I wish you’d stop posting such easily debunked nonsense:

 

At the start of WW2, the UK was in possession of the largest empire in recorded history, far from bankrupt.

 

And.....

 

In all, Great Britain received roughly one-quarter of the total aid provided under the Marshall Plan, while France was given less than one fifth of the funds.

 

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/marshall-plan-1

 

The UK, shock horror, was held to its war debts, this as a calculated US policy to strip the UK of the funds needed to keep hold of its empire.

 

A cold calculation Brexiteers should consider before putting the nation in need of going cap in hand to the US for a trade deal.

 

 

 

This is way beyond your normal arrogance, Chomper.  Don't over-reach yourself.

In the meantime you may wish to read this book review which clarifies things very well for any one who is "confused" by British history.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v12/n12/paul-addison/garbo-and-co

[ThomasThBKK]

31 minutes ago, Loiner said:

 

I really do, yes. A few S-Class buyers may still sign away company money, but the bulk sales will drop when their prices increase.
The most biggest and most important sector, fleet buyers, are the most price sensitive too. They’ll drop imported cars like a hot frankfurter.

 

https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/brexit/key-exports-data/

 

80 percent of your cars are exported, over 50 percent to the EU.

Vauxhall is owned by FIAT, BMW owns Mini and Rolls Royce, Volkswagen Bentley, Tata owns jaguar and landrover..... oh you shining british automobile industry, world surpreme leader in cars.

 

Guess we will just drop imported UK cars like a hot frankfurter, following your logic.

 

All these plants and the big volume manufacturing like Open/Vauxhall, Toyota, Mini/BMW will just move production somewhere else to slovakia and co - killing workplaces in the UK.

 

If only the world would be so black and white  like you guys think it is.

[dunroaming]

My ex-wife's new husband is a motoring journalist and writes for various publications including a couple of company car mags.  He says that most fleet buyers are now being instructed to buy hybrids with a view to going all electric within the next five years.  That is from the low level sales force cars to the MD's Bentley.  It's obviously the way to go for all of us eventually.

 

The British are still good at building cars but rely on foreign ownership for their livelihoods.  It is those foreign owners who will decide in the future where their cars are built.

[tebee]

43 minutes ago, jayboy said:

This is pretty superficial stuff.Ultimately currency trends have little to do with Brexit notwithstanding short term reactions.In any case Sterling has been on a downward trend with the US$ for decades.But there's no reason to expect the £ to decline long term against the Euro, Brexit or not.

 

 

 

 

Are you joking? Every time the possibility of a hard brexit beckons the pound goes down and everytime brexit seems to get less likely it rises .

 

Currency markets have already decided on what brexit will do to the economy. 

[Nigel Garvie]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I wish you’d stop posting such easily debunked nonsense:

 

At the start of WW2, the UK was in possession of the largest empire in recorded history, far from bankrupt.

 

And.....

 

In all, Great Britain received roughly one-quarter of the total aid provided under the Marshall Plan, while France was given less than one fifth of the funds.

 

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/marshall-plan-1

 

The UK, shock horror, was held to its war debts, this as a calculated US policy to strip the UK of the funds needed to keep hold of its empire.

 

A cold calculation Brexiteers should consider before putting the nation in need of going cap in hand to the US for a trade deal.

 

 

 

43 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

This is way beyond your normal arrogance, Chomper.  Don't over-reach yourself.

In the meantime you may wish to read this book review which clarifies things very well for any one who is "confused" by British history.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v12/n12/paul-addison/garbo-and-co

I have just read through this garbo-and-co article. I wish I hadn't wasted my time. Different historians claiming different things (No surprise there).

Not a mention of the Marshall plan, a key point in the post you were attempting to dispute. Don't over-reach yourself!

 

This is 74 years since the end of WW11, It's a new century, a new world in many ways with blistering advances in Science and technology, and a younger generation that has unceremoniously dumped most of the small minded socially conservative prejudice and bigotry of our past. Thanks be for that. The vast majority of posters on this forum appear to be baby boomers. We didn't fight WW11. My Dad was rescued from Dunkirk with a bullet in him, to hear Brexiteers talk of "Dunkirk Spirit" would have made him vomit. Can we stop talking about wars FHS, this EU thing is about trade between co-operating nations. 

[Chomper Higgot]

58 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

This is way beyond your normal arrogance, Chomper.  Don't over-reach yourself.

In the meantime you may wish to read this book review which clarifies things very well for any one who is "confused" by British history.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v12/n12/paul-addison/garbo-and-co

Thanks for the link, the synopsis provides nothing that refutes my views, perhaps I shall read the book.

 

At the start of WW2 Britain possessed the largest empire in history.

 

Britain received roughly 25% of the aid provided by the Marshall Plan.

 

Britain was held, by the US to pay up on its war debts (boo hoo) as a means to strip the UK of the means to hold onto its empire.

 

Good luck going cap in hand to the US for a trade deal.

 

[jayboy]

22 minutes ago, tebee said:

Are you joking? Every time the possibility of a hard brexit beckons the pound goes down and everytime brexit seems to get less likely it rises .

 

Currency markets have already decided on what brexit will do to the economy. 

Try concentrating harder.

 

"Ultimately currency trends have little to do with Brexit notwithstanding SHORT TERM reactions"

[Nigel Garvie]

22 hours ago, zorrow424 said:

The Tories will win because Parliament and Remainer MPs are 'as popular as the Clap'. 

I thought Steve How's guitar solo on YES's early album was a very fine piece of music. (The Clap)

[tebee]

19 minutes ago, jayboy said:

Try concentrating harder.

 

"Ultimately currency trends have little to do with Brexit notwithstanding SHORT TERM reactions"

So then  why has the £ fallen by 20% over the 3 years since brexit became a possibility ? More than any other currency.

[MikeN]

2 hours ago, candide said:

I may have not remembered the exact figures or they were not up to date. The 18.8 trillion figure is about EU 28 but even by retracting UK's GDP.

So according to your remark, the % of GDP should be higher than 8% for the UK and lower than 2.3% for the EU. Actually it would show a worse situation for the UK than my previous comparison.

If you are making up figures then perhaps you should not have written them ? But according to your claimed percentages, and the GDP figures from Google, it just depends on how you look at it. THAT is why I was quoting the old saying about the three kinds of lies. By quoting percentages it looks worse for the UK ( IF your figures are correct) but in terms of cold hard cash it is worse for the EU. Statistics can be twisted to suit the purpose, but I don't see how "the % of GDP should be higher than 8% for the UK and lower than 2.3% for the EU" ...Either your quoted percentages are right, or you imagined them to suit your purpose ?

[candide]

7 minutes ago, MikeN said:

If you are making up figures then perhaps you should not have written them ? But according to your claimed percentages, and the GDP figures from Google, it just depends on how you look at it. THAT is why I was quoting the old saying about the three kinds of lies. By quoting percentages it looks worse for the UK ( IF your figures are correct) but in terms of cold hard cash it is worse for the EU. Statistics can be twisted to suit the purpose, but I don't see how "the % of GDP should be higher than 8% for the UK and lower than 2.3% for the EU" ...Either your quoted percentages are right, or you imagined them to suit your purpose ?

Sorry I had no time to cross check figures as I am travelling. I will do it later. I can already answer on two points

- quoting percentage is relevant. If you lose 8% of your revenues it's worse than if you lose 2.3% of your revenues.

- your calculation applying my percentages seems to gives a lower export figure for UK and a higher figure for the EU than the actual export values

[MikeN]

16 minutes ago, candide said:

Sorry I had no time to cross check figures as I am travelling. I will do it later. I can already answer on two points

- quoting percentage is relevant. If you lose 8% of your revenues it's worse than if you lose 2.3% of your revenues.

- your calculation applying my percentages seems to gives a lower export figure for UK and a higher figure for the EU than the actual export values

<deleted>..........

lets start with something simple ...percentages.....8% of 100 = 8.... got that ?

2.3% of 900 = 20.7

(GDP of the EU is approx nine times the size of the UK's GDP.)

So the effect of smaller percentage of a larger sum (ie the EU GDP) can be greater than a large percentage on a smaller amount, when measured in total terms.

Now lets get into some big numbers with lots of zeroes ....8% (as claimed by you) of 2,622,000,000,000 (UK GDP as per Google) = 209,000,000,000

2.3% of 18,800,000,000,000 (EU GDP)= 432,400,000,000

Which is worse, losing $432,400,000,000 or 209,000,000,000 ?

And then there is the intangible matter of how much exports will actually be affected between the two, the small matter of the EU losing the world's 5th biggest economy as part of it's membership, whether English holidaymakers will still want to go to Europe, how much will a can of English baked beans cost for retirees abroad, and so on. So many things are just guesswork,  other figures are twisted and distorted to suit a person's point of view (the lies, damn lies, and statistics).

As for your second point either use percentages or dollar values and stick to them. If you have the dollar values then why not use them instead of guessing at percentages ?

[candide]

10 minutes ago, MikeN said:

<deleted>..........

lets start with something simple ...percentages.....8% of 100 = 8.... got that ?

2.3% of 900 = 20.7

(GDP of the EU is approx nine times the size of the UK's GDP.)

So the effect of smaller percentage of a larger sum (ie the EU GDP) can be greater than a large percentage on a smaller amount, when measured in total terms.

Now lets get into some big numbers with lots of zeroes ....8% (as claimed by you) of 2,622,000,000,000 (UK GDP as per Google) = 209,000,000,000

2.3% of 18,800,000,000,000 (EU GDP)= 432,400,000,000

Which is worse, losing $432,400,000,000 or 209,000,000,000 ?

And then there is the intangible matter of how much exports will actually be affected between the two, the small matter of the EU losing the world's 5th biggest economy as part of it's membership, whether English holidaymakers will still want to go to Europe, how much will a can of English baked beans cost for retirees abroad, and so on. So many things are just guesswork,  other figures are twisted and distorted to suit a person's point of view (the lies, damn lies, and statistics).

As for your second point either use percentages or dollar values and stick to them. If you have the dollar values then why not use them instead of guessing at percentages ?

No. It's the percentage that matters. Each EU country may lose 2.3% (on average) while UK may lose 8%.

Let's take a simple example: let's assume that the natural GDP growth is around 2%. The maximum risk for EU countries would be around 0% growth, while for the UK it would be around -6%. Thatwould be a deep recession for UK. Of course  the export loss will never be 100%. If we further assume that 50% will be lost, it's still a recession for UK with -2% ( and +1 for EU).

[beautifulthailand99]

21 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

nigel farage is going to be the new UK EU chancellor and will veto everything in sight  and bring the EU down on its knees if they dont do a deal

I always rely on you 3NUMBAS for the most outlandish nonsense and you never let me down. You and BJ  would get on like a house on fire just make stuff up however mad it might seem and pass it off as the trooth. BTW have all the Soros Shills got their monthly payments in their bank accounts yet - mine seems to be late. 

[beautifulthailand99]

21 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Can't we just give Ireland to the EU as full and final payment of any money they think we owe them?

 

[beautifulthailand99]

10 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Good to see UK politicians finally standing up to the likes of Barnier, Juncker, Merkell etc. They've even started to go on the front foot for once which is nice, no doubt Cummings is aware that when you know something is definitely coming for you it can be a good idea to get your retaliation in first ????. He's a good lad that Dominic.

 

It's a shame that the traitors like Grieve and Benn have blocked no deal or we could have been out in 3 weeks. As it is, we'll have to wait until we've removed these colluders via a General Election. Unless of course Johnson and Cummings have a way to get around the Surrender Bill, let's hope so.????

Long Live the Traitors ! Long Live the Surrender BIll ! Down with Sodomy !

[beautifulthailand99]

6 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

Nice avatar pic. The missus, by any chance?

My missus is a good looker for 55 but no - but a Gina Miller /Priti Patel sub/dom play hour is on my fantasy bucket list. 

 

Priti would have her stiletto heel on my neck begging me to take a hard Brexit - I would have to use my safe word 'Jean Claude Junkcer' probably after 20 minutes and then Gina would come and mother me and make it all better reading purringly the Supreme Court Judgement whilst applying soothing balm to the weals. Or something like that.

[beautifulthailand99]

21 hours ago, david555 said:

Maybe if you throw in Gibraltar also  …. Spanish problem also solved ????

sell Falklands to the Argies and Isle of White we don't really need that to the Hong Kongers that want to get out. Job done. 

[puipuitom]

On 10/8/2019 at 12:28 PM, zorrow424 said:

The Tories will win because Parliament and Remainer MPs are 'as popular as the Clap'. 

Just a few weeks of "enjoying" WTO- import duty into the EU and Schengen visa when the British want to visit the EU, and the public laughter will be silenced.

The company-laugter will be over 1 Nov 00:00:01, when all food exporters into the EU need an individual certification. 

But.. as the British voted with a landslide, overwhelmingly majority of 51,88 % for a LEAVE, whatever teh consequences, all in EU are happy the UK competition on their markets will be a lot less from 1 Nov onwards.

 

No-deal Brexit: what would 'WTO terms' mean for UK-EU trade ...

https://www.euronews.com › News › World

30 sep. 2019 - Tariffs in some sectors – for example in agriculture and food, the car ... UK zero-tariff plan for no-deal Brexit would not spare some EU imports ... Some firms may need export licences which could bring delays, or to employ customs brokers. ... if the UK fell back on WTO rules to trade with the bloc after Brexit.

Exporting animals and animal products if there's no Brexit deal

https://www.gov.uk › government › publications › exp...

19 dec. 2018 - Food & Rural Affairs ... Purpose; Before 29 March 2019; After March 2019 if there's no deal; More information ... This notice sets out how businesses or individuals that export ... must apply for, and be issued with, an Export Health Certificat

Brexit: Cross-border trade could become 'impossible ... - BBC

https://www.bbc.com › uk-northern-ireland-49907555

7 dagen geleden - Complex certification rules could cause problems for food retail and ... and weeks after a no-deal Brexit, Northern Ireland's chief vet has warned. ... If there were not agreed systems for accepting UK exports into the EU, things could grind to a ... Patterns of trade would change and companies might have to ...

Export Health Certificates - Brexit questions & answers - DAERA

https://www.daera-ni.gov.uk › export-health-certificate...

 Can the UK start exporting to the EU as soon as we exit in a No Deal scenario? ... Does DAERA require a Health Certificate at time of import of Products of Animal .... The Department of Food, Fisheries and the Marine (DAFM) in Dublin can give ... Examples of individual commodities requiring separate certification would be ...

 

 

[puipuitom]

On 10/8/2019 at 12:34 PM, zorrow424 said:

Of course you mean the 22 begging states need the UK,and with 93 billion deficit UK has with EU  who needs who?

The other 5 EU states are all, or about to go into recession

Seen British products import into the EU, the WTO-import duty will be a LOT higher as the UK contribution now. 

Second: a LOT of British exports to the EU can be sourced elsewhere, with a slightly higher price, but a LOT of imports by the UK are quite difficult to replace. Or you want frozen fruits and vegetables, dairy etc from Canada, New Zealand ?

Where you get that 93 Bn deficit from ? The HoC-library has other data... oh.. wait..TRAITORS... 

[Basil B]

Britain Boris tells EU: compromise on Brexit or we'll get nasty:

Boris latest threat: Give us what we want or we will revoke Article 50... 

 

[puipuitom]

29 minutes ago, candide said:

No. It's the percentage that matters. Each EU country may lose 2.3% (on average) while UK may lose 8%.

Let's take a simple example: let's assume that the natural GDP growth is around 2%. The maximum risk for EU countries would be around 0% growth, while for the UK it would be around -6%. Thatwould be a deep recession for UK. Of course  the export loss will never be 100%. If we further assume that 50% will be lost, it's still a recession for UK with -2% ( and +1 for EU).

A lot of UK products will be out of competition ( many out of the "make" industry, like cars 10%, confectionary + quite some foods 13-42 %), because of import duty, lack of appropriate certifications etc. The entire meat industry exports will be finished.

Quite come manufacturers will have to lay off staff, or even go bankrupt, means less spenditure at the supermarket, hairdresser, clothes, furniture, out-of-home pleasures. Means a shockwave through the minds of UK consumers to "hold hand on their wallets".

[Loiner]

 
80 percent of your cars are exported, over 50 percent to the EU.
Vauxhall is owned by FIAT, BMW owns Mini and Rolls Royce, Volkswagen Bentley, Tata owns jaguar and landrover..... oh you shining british automobile industry, world surpreme leader in cars.
 
Guess we will just drop imported UK cars like a hot frankfurter, following your logic.
 
All these plants and the big volume manufacturing like Open/Vauxhall, Toyota, Mini/BMW will just move production somewhere else to slovakia and co - killing workplaces in the UK.
 
If only the world would be so black and white  like you guys think it is.

Ownership of the car manufacturers is not the issue you think it is in your gloating. The location of the factories and their workers is what it’s all about.

Factories have been allowed (encouraged) to move to EU peasant countries to be knocked together by wage skates. That stops with the imposition of tariffs on imports to UK.

About 3 million new vehicle registrations in UK each year. Watch the factories move back when prices change and govt enticements are no longer banned by the EU.

[Rookiescot]

All the EU has to do is say "There will be no passporting of financial services from the UK to the EU upon a no deal Brexit".

Thats it.

Its game over.

Farrage and his mates will realise the game is over.

All you white van drivers who hate anyone who is not English are going to be sadly disappointed.

[nauseus]

47 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Seen British products import into the EU, the WTO-import duty will be a LOT higher as the UK contribution now. 

Second: a LOT of British exports to the EU can be sourced elsewhere, with a slightly higher price, but a LOT of imports by the UK are quite difficult to replace. Or you want frozen fruits and vegetables, dairy etc from Canada, New Zealand ?

Where you get that 93 Bn deficit from ? The HoC-library has other data... oh.. wait..TRAITORS... 

. . . _ _ _ . . .

[Drax]

Rip uk ????. Thanks to the breexit quite a few big companies are moving a bit further to the south into my country. Your welcome ???? 

[sanemax]

1 minute ago, Drax said:

Rip uk ????. Thanks to the breexit quite a few big companies are moving a bit further to the south into my country. Your welcome ???? 

I feel terrible now , wish I'd never wanted Brexit .

My fault that UK is going to die .