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Now UK coming out of EU with no deal. what is going to happen to sterling??


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I asked this same question to a fortune teller in soi Bukhaow (Pattaya) market the other day and she said (pigeon english of course) initially it will sink to 35 baht but late december will bounce to

I don't think it will happen. There'll be another extension/delay.

You do not know for sure, because you are not a qualified fortune teller like the lady at the market on soi Bukhaow. So, hush hush! 

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1 hour ago, DannyCarlton said:

Not according to Gove when revealing Yellowhammer to Parliament. Quietly slipped it in that the Government had made preperations for the "inevitable fall in the Pound".

Gove makes Johnson look honest. These two don’t have the truth gene.

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Reality - IF there is a no deal Brexit on October 31st, the pound will fall - to about 33 baht. What happens then depends on how bad Brexit is. By The new year, most SME's who had a low level of exports to the EU will have stopped exporting to the EU, as to much administration and imposition of tariffs making it uneconomic. Sheep farmers will be killing off stock as fast as they can to avoid bankruptcy. GDP will have fallen by at least 2%. Imports coming from the EU will cost 5-10% more, to cover exchange rate falls and administration costs of import documents. There will be some shortages, but not too much - but scarce items may cost more. Unemployment will be increasing.

 

By March, disruption and shortages will have ended, but inflation will be going up. Some businesses are still closing down or downsizing, and the deficit will have sky rocketed.

 

After this, a toss up between a steep recession and a slow recovery. 40 baht to the pound - not in 2020.

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1 hour ago, rickudon said:

Reality - IF there is a no deal Brexit on October 31st, the pound will fall - to about 33 baht. What happens then depends on how bad Brexit is. By The new year, most SME's who had a low level of exports to the EU will have stopped exporting to the EU, as to much administration and imposition of tariffs making it uneconomic. Sheep farmers will be killing off stock as fast as they can to avoid bankruptcy. GDP will have fallen by at least 2%. Imports coming from the EU will cost 5-10% more, to cover exchange rate falls and administration costs of import documents. There will be some shortages, but not too much - but scarce items may cost more. Unemployment will be increasing.

 

By March, disruption and shortages will have ended, but inflation will be going up. Some businesses are still closing down or downsizing, and the deficit will have sky rocketed.

 

After this, a toss up between a steep recession and a slow recovery. 40 baht to the pound - not in 2020.

Oh well thanks for letting us know 

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On 10/9/2019 at 11:19 PM, joecoolfrog said:

There is zero chance of the Brexit party winning the election or Farage becoming PM.

Ok Mystic Meg calm down, we'll see what happens. You are like those who say a no deal Brexitwill be a disaster? Just like they said about us not joining the Euro. They all read the tarot cards and some look at the entrails of animals for these "Predictions". I myself are sceptical of all the <deleted> I read eminating from the losing remainers side who control the BBC and the Hoses of commons. The people voted, we knew whst we voted for and we know what the EU is. It is the remainers that need educating. The EU want a Roman style Empire with their own flag, anthem, army, dictatorship government. Listen to Verhofstadt on those subjects. See if you are not convinced of their goals? Wonder how their army will march? The goose step? How will they salute Ya Vol Mien Fuhrer?

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10 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Pound jumped from 37 to 38 this morning.

Apparently Brexit isn't as damaging as you all predicted.

 

It's a no deal Brexit that will send GBP over a cliff, not a deal Brexit ... as I'm sure you know ... but a referendum won by Remain would send GBP even higher.

 

 

 

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Brexit is not going to happen.  Certainly not, at any rate, with no deal on Oct. 31.  Either the Scottish High Court of Session or Parliament will stop Johnson.  There will be both a general election and a referendum, not necessarily in that order.  Johnson is finished.

 

So, the pound will be on the way up going forward.

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48 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Brexit is not going to happen.  Certainly not, at any rate, with no deal on Oct. 31.  Either the Scottish High Court of Session or Parliament will stop Johnson.  There will be both a general election and a referendum, not necessarily in that order.  Johnson is finished.

 

So, the pound will be on the way up going forward.

Can’t say I’m as optimistic as you are, he’s a devious liar with a single mission of grabbing power for as long as he can no matter the damage. BUT, I hope you’re right!

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3 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

Can’t say I’m as optimistic as you are, he’s a devious liar with a single mission of grabbing power for as long as he can no matter the damage. BUT, I hope you’re right!

If Johnson refuses to sign the letter asking the EU for an extension on Oct 19, the Scottish High Court of Session has an as yet undisclosed remedy, which is probably that they will sign the letter for him exercising their obscure power of nobile officium.  Johnson's current ploy is to trot out an "agreement" that avoids a hard border in Ireland, in favor of one in the Irish Sea.  Mysteriously, the DUP and ERG appear ready to approve it, despite their former intense opposition to just these provisions, but it is a trap.  If Parliament were to approve that "plan," the Benn Act would become a dead letter getting Johnson off the hook, but the UK would still not exit from the EU until Parliament passed the additional legislation required by the EU Withdrawal Act 2018.  However, Johnson can conceivably prevent that from happening by proroguing Parliament again for the ten days or whatever until the deadline of Oct. 31 has safely passed, at which point, presumably the UK would out without a deal.

 

However, Parliament has several ways to prevent that, the most effective of which would be a vote of no confidence.  That doesn't look likely at the moment, because the Remain parties cannot agree on a caretaker PM, but the real negotiations on that issue do not begin until the eleventh hour at which point someone is likely to buckle, whether Swinson, Corbyn, or whoever.

 

The current Tory political campaign carried on under the guise of an "information" campaign to prepare the publc for an exit on Oct. 21 is just an attempt to steamroll the public and maybe the less astute among the MPs.  Not likely to work.

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On 10/11/2019 at 4:03 PM, BritManToo said:

Pound jumped from 37 to 38 this morning.

Apparently Brexit isn't as damaging as you all predicted.

It jumped because there is a likelihood of a deal that basically keeps us or NI in in some ways. 

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