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Now UK coming out of EU with no deal. what is going to happen to sterling??

john west

By john west
in Home Country Forum

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rickudon Gold Member

rickudon

Posted
Posted

Reality - IF there is a no deal Brexit on October 31st, the pound will fall - to about 33 baht. What happens then depends on how bad Brexit is. By The new year, most SME's who had a low level of exports to the EU will have stopped exporting to the EU, as to much administration and imposition of tariffs making it uneconomic. Sheep farmers will be killing off stock as fast as they can to avoid bankruptcy. GDP will have fallen by at least 2%. Imports coming from the EU will cost 5-10% more, to cover exchange rate falls and administration costs of import documents. There will be some shortages, but not too much - but scarce items may cost more. Unemployment will be increasing.

 

By March, disruption and shortages will have ended, but inflation will be going up. Some businesses are still closing down or downsizing, and the deficit will have sky rocketed.

 

After this, a toss up between a steep recession and a slow recovery. 40 baht to the pound - not in 2020.

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Fairynuff Gold Member

Fairynuff

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, rickudon said:

Reality - IF there is a no deal Brexit on October 31st, the pound will fall - to about 33 baht. What happens then depends on how bad Brexit is. By The new year, most SME's who had a low level of exports to the EU will have stopped exporting to the EU, as to much administration and imposition of tariffs making it uneconomic. Sheep farmers will be killing off stock as fast as they can to avoid bankruptcy. GDP will have fallen by at least 2%. Imports coming from the EU will cost 5-10% more, to cover exchange rate falls and administration costs of import documents. There will be some shortages, but not too much - but scarce items may cost more. Unemployment will be increasing.

 

By March, disruption and shortages will have ended, but inflation will be going up. Some businesses are still closing down or downsizing, and the deficit will have sky rocketed.

 

After this, a toss up between a steep recession and a slow recovery. 40 baht to the pound - not in 2020.

Oh well thanks for letting us know 

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Sumarianson Advanced Member

Sumarianson

Posted
Posted
On 10/9/2019 at 11:19 PM, joecoolfrog said:

There is zero chance of the Brexit party winning the election or Farage becoming PM.

Ok Mystic Meg calm down, we'll see what happens. You are like those who say a no deal Brexitwill be a disaster? Just like they said about us not joining the Euro. They all read the tarot cards and some look at the entrails of animals for these "Predictions". I myself are sceptical of all the <deleted> I read eminating from the losing remainers side who control the BBC and the Hoses of commons. The people voted, we knew whst we voted for and we know what the EU is. It is the remainers that need educating. The EU want a Roman style Empire with their own flag, anthem, army, dictatorship government. Listen to Verhofstadt on those subjects. See if you are not convinced of their goals? Wonder how their army will march? The goose step? How will they salute Ya Vol Mien Fuhrer?

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AlexRich Gold Member

AlexRich

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Pound jumped from 37 to 38 this morning.

Apparently Brexit isn't as damaging as you all predicted.

 

It's a no deal Brexit that will send GBP over a cliff, not a deal Brexit ... as I'm sure you know ... but a referendum won by Remain would send GBP even higher.

 

 

 

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cmarshall Gold Member

cmarshall

Posted
Posted

Brexit is not going to happen.  Certainly not, at any rate, with no deal on Oct. 31.  Either the Scottish High Court of Session or Parliament will stop Johnson.  There will be both a general election and a referendum, not necessarily in that order.  Johnson is finished.

 

So, the pound will be on the way up going forward.

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Fairynuff Gold Member

Fairynuff

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Brexit is not going to happen.  Certainly not, at any rate, with no deal on Oct. 31.  Either the Scottish High Court of Session or Parliament will stop Johnson.  There will be both a general election and a referendum, not necessarily in that order.  Johnson is finished.

 

So, the pound will be on the way up going forward.

Can’t say I’m as optimistic as you are, he’s a devious liar with a single mission of grabbing power for as long as he can no matter the damage. BUT, I hope you’re right!

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cmarshall Gold Member

cmarshall

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

Can’t say I’m as optimistic as you are, he’s a devious liar with a single mission of grabbing power for as long as he can no matter the damage. BUT, I hope you’re right!

If Johnson refuses to sign the letter asking the EU for an extension on Oct 19, the Scottish High Court of Session has an as yet undisclosed remedy, which is probably that they will sign the letter for him exercising their obscure power of nobile officium.  Johnson's current ploy is to trot out an "agreement" that avoids a hard border in Ireland, in favor of one in the Irish Sea.  Mysteriously, the DUP and ERG appear ready to approve it, despite their former intense opposition to just these provisions, but it is a trap.  If Parliament were to approve that "plan," the Benn Act would become a dead letter getting Johnson off the hook, but the UK would still not exit from the EU until Parliament passed the additional legislation required by the EU Withdrawal Act 2018.  However, Johnson can conceivably prevent that from happening by proroguing Parliament again for the ten days or whatever until the deadline of Oct. 31 has safely passed, at which point, presumably the UK would out without a deal.

 

However, Parliament has several ways to prevent that, the most effective of which would be a vote of no confidence.  That doesn't look likely at the moment, because the Remain parties cannot agree on a caretaker PM, but the real negotiations on that issue do not begin until the eleventh hour at which point someone is likely to buckle, whether Swinson, Corbyn, or whoever.

 

The current Tory political campaign carried on under the guise of an "information" campaign to prepare the publc for an exit on Oct. 21 is just an attempt to steamroll the public and maybe the less astute among the MPs.  Not likely to work.

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BritManToo Star Member

BritManToo

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, david555 said:

AND SLIDING DOWN AGAIN ….17 OCT  10.56

 

38.92 at the moment, best it's been since July.

Not including minor hourly fluctuations.

 

I've been expecting it to drop and keep dropping as the 31st approaches.

But instead it rises, I'll never understand the money markets.

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david555 Ruby Member

david555

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

38.92 at the moment, best it's been for a long time (over 3 months).

Not including minor hourly fluctuations.

wHERE YOUR 38.92 As that chart is from all major banks and exchangers …. but in Thailand … as different with Europe or U.K.

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david555 Ruby Member

david555

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

XE.com, their mid rate is the price I buy my Baht through Transferwise.

Screenshot_20191017_112153_com.xe.currency.jpg

O.K. I see …. I keep up with the official Thai street & Thai bank rates , as those online changers are different , even TT exchange has some differences booth by booth

 

That is what I take as the official one , but individual some speculator ones can give different rate 

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  • 4 weeks later...
mrwebb8825 Gold Member

mrwebb8825

Posted
Posted

Seems to me that anyone with large amounts of THB should be draining SuperRich of all the smaller pounds/sterling they can get and sitting on them. Then, when it turns the other way (as it surely will) fly over to the UK for a visit and buy the large bills for and even exchange. Then when you return to Thailand descend on SuperRich once more and change it back and the better rate.

 

On the Brexit thing I have a question based purely out of curiosity; Why is England apparently afraid of ruling itself again? I'm not from there so am asking as an outsider looking in and not trying to start a fight. Just really want to know. You guys were "The Empire" for centuries so what is so worrisome over being that again? Are you just out of practice? Has not being in charge for so long taken the wild out of the lion? Are your politicians so incredibly inept that they can't make deals on the world market alone?

There's a story in American newspapers that England can't accept the deal President Trump offered while still in the EU. It seems you guys could lead the revolution as it were and be the beginning of the end of EU rule throughout Europe.

Again, not trying to touch nerves, just really curious as a non-englishman. :wai:

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alfieconn Platinum Member

alfieconn

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mrwebb8825 said:

Seems to me that anyone with large amounts of THB should be draining SuperRich of all the smaller pounds/sterling they can get and sitting on them. Then, when it turns the other way (as it surely will) fly over to the UK for a visit and buy the large bills for and even exchange. Then when you return to Thailand descend on SuperRich once more and change it back and the better rate.

 

On the Brexit thing I have a question based purely out of curiosity; Why is England apparently afraid of ruling itself again? I'm not from there so am asking as an outsider looking in and not trying to start a fight. Just really want to know. You guys were "The Empire" for centuries so what is so worrisome over being that again? Are you just out of practice? Has not being in charge for so long taken the wild out of the lion? Are your politicians so incredibly inept that they can't make deals on the world market alone?

There's a story in American newspapers that England can't accept the deal President Trump offered while still in the EU. It seems you guys could lead the revolution as it were and be the beginning of the end of EU rule throughout Europe.

Again, not trying to touch nerves, just really curious as a non-englishman. :wai:

52% are not afraid of ruling for itself, you should have specified that it was for the 48% to answer !

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owl sees all Platinum Member

owl sees all

Posted
Posted
On 10/9/2019 at 12:43 PM, petermik said:

I asked this same question to a fortune teller in soi Bukhaow (Pattaya) market the other day and she said (pigeon english of course) initially it will sink to 35 baht but late december will bounce to 40 and continue rising during the course of next year to a high of 54.......with this news I happily gave her a 20 baht tip :clap2:

A bar girl said exactly the same to me.

 

This soi Bukhaow lass hasn't got a beauty spot on ner left cheek by any chance? I handed over 200 baht.

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