World Bank slashes Thailand’s GDP from 3.5 to 2.7 per cent

[webfact]

World Bank slashes Thailand’s GDP from 3.5 to 2.7 per cent

By THE NATION

 

Kiatipong Ariyapruchya

 

The World Bank has reduced its forecast for Thailand’s economic expansion in 2019 from 3.5 to 2.7 per cent, while 2020 speculation was also brought down to 2.9 per cent from the earlier figure of 3.5 per cent.

 

Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior country economist of the World Bank revealed on Thursday (October 10) that the World Bank had adjusted Thailand’s GDP forecast down to 2.7 per cent in 2019 and 2.9 per cent in 2020.

 

Kiatipong said the factors behind the Bank’s forecast adjustment included the decline in the export and service sectors, which have gone down by 5.3 and 2.5 per cent respectively. “Furthermore, in 2019 Thailand has undergone one of the worst droughts in this decade,” he said. “The government has allocated a relatively low public investment budget, while the economic stimulus measures implemented since August have yet to yield significant contributions to the 2019 economic expansion.”

 

The economist was referring to the government’s crop price guarantee schemes, debt repayment extension programmes, SME loans and tourism promotion measures.

 

“In the medium and long terms, the government’s mega projects in Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) should help increase private investment, especially those involving construction of infrastructure and transportation routes, which should promote cross-border investment with CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam),” said Kiatipong.

 

“However, Thailand is still facing several risks and challenges, not least uncertainty about the government’s stability and unity coming from coalition of 19 political parties, which will affect investors’ confidence in the government’s long-term projects,” he added. “Moreover, domestic demand tends to slow down due to delays in many EEC projects.”

 

Meanwhile, the rising tension in the US and China trade dispute has served to weaken Thailand’s export sector even further as well as lower private investment in export-focused industries. “To make things worse, the Thai Baht has become strongest in the region this year as foreign investors have sought shelter in the Thai bond market, posing a substantial obstacle to the expansion of export and tourism industries,” he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30377264

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-10-10

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[keith101]

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

“To make things worse, the Thai Baht has become strongest in the region this year as foreign investors have sought shelter in the Thai bond market, posing a substantial obstacle to the expansion of export and tourism industries,” he said.

And nothing is being done to change it just too happy to have the strongest currency and to hell with the economy .

[Nong Khai Man]

1 minute ago, keith101 said:

And nothing is being done to change it just too happy to have the strongest currency and to hell with the economy .

But It's O.K For The Rich & SUPER Rich Folks, In'it " I'm Alright Jack Syndrome " 

[petermik]

No they have got it all wrong,false news....the PM and his crew have everything in hand here..

[worgeordie]

The World bank must not know about the ‘Eat, Shop, Spend’ 

scheme the Government rolled out,that's sure to increase the

GDP, by at least 2% ????

regards Worgeordie

[Somtamnication]

A Thai speaking against the TAT and its own government. Those hummers have their engines running around the corner of the WB office.

[happy chappie]

Those pesky farang at the world bank know sod all.thailand is the hub of trade.im waiting for the day the baht does a bitcoin special and gets dumped by the currency speculators.what goes up don't come down in Thailand but it certainly does in the rest of the world.

[leeneeds]

19 parties, of happiness well being,

doing the right thing, for country,

and themselves,

 

 

[Liverpudlian]

Yawn .

[WeekendRaider]

strange.  in the past we would use the word "slash" when the result was a large reduction.  but in today's world 2.7 percent GDP growth is not bad at all, even almost compared to China in it's "trade/5G war".  not bad at all!

[PatOngo]

There'll be an upside. Can't wait to see how the govt puts a positive spin on this!

[Cadbury]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

The World Bank has reduced its forecast for Thailand’s economic expansion in 2019 from 3.5 to 2.7 per cent

World bank excuses for a failing Thai economy. 

1. Drought.

2. Stimulus packages not working.

3. High baht.

4. Low public investment budget.

5. Government instability.

6. China/US trade dispute.

7. Low investor confidence.

8. Diminishing exports.

9. Delayed EEC projects.

 

Then there are other factors that are helping to keep Thailand's economy paralysed.

1. Military power over democracy.

2. Below standard education system outcomes.

3. Incompetent and Inefficient government administration.

4. Ineffective leadership. 

5. Rampant corruption throughout government agencies.

6. Decreasing competitiveness.

etc. etc.

 

Only luck rather than good management will turn things around. There will be an ongoing payback for not having an proper education system. That will take decades to fix even if they did something about it, which they won't. 

A worldwide recession will be the icing on the cake.

 

 

 

[khunpa]

What???? 

 

I though everything was going fantastic, as new "hubs" are being created all the time.

[Sticky Wicket]

37 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

World bank excuses for a failing Thai economy. 

1. Drought.

2. Stimulus packages not working.

3. High baht.

4. Low public investment budget.

5. Government instability.

6. China/US trade dispute.

7. Low investor confidence.

8. Diminishing exports.

9. Delayed EEC projects.

 

Then there are other factors that are helping to keep Thailand's economy paralysed.

1. Military power over democracy.

2. Below standard education system outcomes.

3. Incompetent and Inefficient government administration.

4. Ineffective leadership. 

5. Rampant corruption throughout government agencies.

6. Decreasing competitiveness.

etc. etc.

 

Only luck rather than good management will turn things around. There will be an ongoing payback for not having an proper education system. That will take decades to fix even if they did something about it, which they won't. 

A worldwide recession will be the icing on the cake.

 

 

 

Yeh Thailand has been extremely lucky for the last 40 years. 

Feels like that streak is about to end

[phetphet]

The stronger the baht, the cheaper the submarines and other military hardware.

[Sticky Wicket]

5 minutes ago, phetphet said:

The stronger the baht, the cheaper the submarines and other military hardware.

Everything is cheaper in Germany too

[yellowboat]

Too much government defying basic economics.  Things like not turning away paying customers, making it difficult to do business here, stifling entrepreneurs in favor Thai mega corps. 

 

Big companies feel the downturn, and are less equipped to deal with the it than smaller concerns. 

 

Thailand is prone to economic downturns as it does not have enough small and medium size companies. 

[RichardColeman]

2 hours ago, WeekendRaider said:

strange.  in the past we would use the word "slash" when the result was a large reduction.

In propagana'ish <deleted> Yahoo country , 0.01% drop in the pound means 'slashed' due to Brexit

 

(if someone could explain why the word re-moaner (non hyphen) is deleted I'd appreciate it !

[observer90210]

Economy slowing down has other factors that are perhaps not taught in the global Ivy league schools of economics,

 

Overrated high Thai Bhat just to favour the rich and hi-so's of Thailand who are massively taking out their money to invest abroad,.

 

Immigration hassles on retirees who do spread the news in their homelands and consquently, deter others,

 

Unfair treatment towards foreigners with taxi scammers, dual pricing, overcharging all over, polluted beaches, all this discourages visitors or retirees and mainly corporate investors.

 

Corporations  like to organise outbound conferences in countries with sun, clean beaches, resonable prices, good quality food, welcoming attitude from the authorites, fun at night with bungaBunga....... All this is wearing out in Thailand and it's the other Asian countries who are getting the cake for such venues.... but one apparently cannot convince stupid to change, until it's too late...

[30la]

Surely if the central bank does not change its monetary policy very soon, it will be a miracle if Thailand makes a plus!

[topt]

I would suggest that the WB is actually late to the party with their cut. They were more optimistic then most even in July - 

https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/74719-imf-cut-global-growth-gdp-in-2019-to-3-3-warning-of-higher-risk.html

 

And here is one from a week ago - 

 https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/thailands-growth-forecasts-for-the-rest-of-2019-slashed-again

[Cake Monster]

2 hours ago, Sticky Wicket said:

Yeh Thailand has been extremely lucky for the last 40 years. 

Feels like that streak is about to end

Thailand has prospered since before the Vietnam War from other Countries pouring aid into the Country and assisting with Infrastructure projects.

Now those Countries are saying to Thailand " You can stand on your own feet from now on ".

However, 40+ Years of easy Money have spawned a Cancerous Growth of Corruption in the Country, and there is little the Government are able to do in stamping it out. And with no experience of actually having to Balance the books, a perfect storm will erupt.

 

 

 

[Isaan sailor]

Don’t listen to the World Bank.  Party on with the flow of foreign hot money over at Bank of Thailand.  SETDown? Exports tanking? Western tourism dead?  Who cares?  Just keep those kickbacks coming.

[fruitman]

 

Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior country economist of the World Bank

 

If this guy is a senior than i 'm a sexy hot stud.....

[Stevemercer]

1 hour ago, 30la said:

Surely if the central bank does not change its monetary policy very soon, it will be a miracle if Thailand makes a plus!

 

The Bank of Thailand (and the government behind them) have repeatedly implied they are comfortable with an appreciating Baht, but are taking measures to slow down the rate of appreciation (e.g. fiddling around the edges).

 

This is despite the drag on the Thai economy (70% of GDP is from exports and 10% from foreign tourism). So it looks like the economy will still be dragging against that anchor in years to come. 

[inspire15]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

“In the medium and long terms, the government’s mega projects in Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) should help increase private investment, especially those involving construction of infrastructure and transportation routes, which should promote cross-border investment with CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam),” said Kiatipong

Does he mean the mega project of which the majority has been canceled recently?

 

 

[Matzzon]

4 hours ago, khunpa said:

What???? 

 

I though everything was going fantastic, as new "hubs" are being created all the time.

Don´t worry! It is! This man don´t have a clue what he´s talking about. He will soon find himself in a world of hurt, and deeply appologize for his misstake and promise for the rest of his life to work volontary to restore the country´s reputation.

[neeray]

6 hours ago, PatOngo said:

There'll be an upside. Can't wait to see how the govt puts a positive spin on this!

Maybe they're talking with the spin shysters meisters at TAT. They'll spin it !!!

[nong38]

A very modest reduction so as not to alarm people what the true figure is.

After an alcohol free end of Lent the Thai economy will disappear over the horizon!!

[Isaan sailor]

6 hours ago, observer90210 said:

Economy slowing down has other factors that are perhaps not taught in the global Ivy league schools of economics,

 

Immigration hassles on retirees who do spread the news in their homelands and consquently, deter others,

Well written response.  And yes, as a suffering expat, I no longer recommend this place.  On social media—I let them have it—BoT takes full blame for this predicament.