snoop1130 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Thailand not in recession, just growing below potential: central bank governor Thailand's Central Bank Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob speaks during an interview with Reuters at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok, Thailand, October 4, 2019. REUTERS/Matthew Tostevin/File Photo BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy is not experiencing recession but is growing slowly and below potential, central bank chief Veerathai Santiprabhob told reporters and analysts on Thursday, adding that the country also faced structural issues. Last month, the central bank cut its 2019 economic growth forecast to 2.8% from 3.3%, as exports weakened amid rising global trade tension. Last year's growth was 4.1%. -- © Copyright Reuters 2019-10-10 Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chelseafan Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Not recession because as I understand it you need 2 consecutive periods of negative growth That being said, slower growth rates are certainly one of the first signs of a recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petermik Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Tell that to the PM....if he will listen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matzzon Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Yep, I will believe this man. By the look of the photo, he´s not looking worried at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seajae Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 he has to save face somehow, lying is the easiest way of course as most of the people running govt departments etc have shown. Cant admit they have got it wrong can they..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 I'd have spun it as the good old classic "Massive negative growth". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sillyfool Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, seajae said: he has to save face somehow, lying is the easiest way of course as most of the people running govt departments etc have shown. Cant admit they have got it wrong can they..... it blows me away that lying is considered saving face. ???? ahhhh what...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anterian Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 not in recession, just growing below potential: What an interesting viewpoint, rather like my bank balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zydeco Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 And Peter Dinklage is not a dwarf. He is just growing below his potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
30la Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Like all countries in the world, even Thailand has learned very well to hide the truth, we are in full recession and those who realize it are only the minor classes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topt Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, 30la said: Like all countries in the world, even Thailand has learned very well to hide the truth, we are in full recession and those who realize it are only the minor classes! So what is your definition of "full recession"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAG Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Is that the economic equivalent of me claiming that I am too short for my weight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soalbundy Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 There was an interesting article in Bloomberg a few days ago about how thailand has almost no options to weaken the Baht, weakening interest rates will have little effect, opening the flood gates and investing heavily in infrastructure would be one way but it takes time. There are so few safe havens where one can still make a profit in the world that Thailand with its huge foreign reserves and relative stability makes it an obvious choice to invest or park money. The article said that the Bahts strength still has a long way to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAppletons Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, soalbundy said: There was an interesting article in Bloomberg a few days ago about how thailand has almost no options to weaken the Baht, weakening interest rates will have little effect, opening the flood gates and investing heavily in infrastructure would be one way but it takes time. There are so few safe havens where one can still make a profit in the world that Thailand with its huge foreign reserves and relative stability makes it an obvious choice to invest or park money. The article said that the Bahts strength still has a long way to run. Sharp post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assurancetourix Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 A surefire way to know if Thailand is in recession or not ... What I have been doing for many years: pick up plastic bottles and cans of beer and juice that thai people throw from their cars, trucks and motorcycles .. I notice that for a few months there have been a lot less; One might think that the ecological fiber has finally illuminated them; not at all ; Just see how they leave the fairgrounds after the weekly market. In fact they have less money to spend; these drinks are relatively expensive; on the other hand we find many more bottles of drinking water, bottles much cheaper than cans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assurancetourix Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, soalbundy said: weakening interest rates will have little effect unless the interest are negative as it is in Europe; the more money you deposit, the less you earn ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestB Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Smart man. Tourism is not in slump just not doing as well as it could . business are not loosing money, just not making as much as they use to . exports are not down. Just selling not as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soalbundy Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said: unless the interest are negative as it is in Europe; the more money you deposit, the less you earn ... but even that hasn't collapsed the European market. Thailand can hardly go from +1.5% to -0.5% without the Americans screeching "currency manipulator" not withstanding the high consumer debt which would only get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weegee Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, soalbundy said: There was an interesting article in Bloomberg a few days ago about how thailand has almost no options to weaken the Baht, weakening interest rates will have little effect, opening the flood gates and investing heavily in infrastructure would be one way but it takes time. There are so few safe havens where one can still make a profit in the world that Thailand with its huge foreign reserves and relative stability makes it an obvious choice to invest or park money. The article said that the Bahts strength still has a long way to run. Not this time, I believe....The run has been shaping up to a finish for months now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardColeman Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 15 hours ago, snoop1130 said: not in recession, just growing below potential I use that excuse after a few beers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rwill Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Thank you for the chuckle. Just like a couple of years ago when the Bangkok governor said there were no floods just water that needed to be moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Aylesham Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 George Orwell would have been delighted by the phrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydebolle Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Is this the same gentleman who publicly confessed that the Bank of Thailand cannot do anything against the strengthening of the Baht? As a non-banker I would do away with transfer restrictions (ever tried to send USD 500 overseas for the payment of a health insurance or a pension plan?). Even if I had the money I could not legally invest money outside Thailand without a tremendous run-for-my-life through the Thai bureaucracy combined with the commercial banks inefficiency, copy machines and all sorts of transaction-irrelevant documentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinmartyn Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Utter poppycock! The entire world is in an economic crises and "Thailand" is NOT a "stand alone!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loh Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Sure not a recession in technical terms but judging from the consecutive decline in consumer spending and lowering export, it sure feel like recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mok199 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Vertically challenged...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Dragon Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 2 hours ago, George Aylesham said: George Orwell would have been delighted by the phrase. He was a smart man and would likely have understood it. The economy is still growing, and at over a 2% rate in real terms. That is growth. It may be slower growth than before, but it is not a recession. A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of decline. You dig, trig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 6 hours ago, soalbundy said: There was an interesting article in Bloomberg a few days ago about how thailand has almost no options to weaken the Baht, weakening interest rates will have little effect, opening the flood gates and investing heavily in infrastructure would be one way but it takes time. There are so few safe havens where one can still make a profit in the world that Thailand with its huge foreign reserves and relative stability makes it an obvious choice to invest or park money. The article said that the Bahts strength still has a long way to run. These types of buildups always end in a huge move. Usual timeframe seems to be about 5-10 years. Good investment timeframe, after that, they'll execute an exodus to the next place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chongalulu Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Phrasing it as he has is deflection. A developing Asian economy should not be contemplating recession but the forecast drop in growth from over 4% is very significant. Look at it in context of Thailand’s neighbours/competitors and it is worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phkauf Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 An emerging economy needs stronger growth than what Thailand is showing at the moment. The current low growth (sub 3%) rate is effectively stagnation for this type economy. Thailand is going to be stuck in a Middle Income Trap with no way out, if the current situation does not radically change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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