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European tourists decline against strong baht, competition


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Just now, adammike said:

Have you forgotten about the airport closures and downtown "shut down Bangkok" I've got that t-shirt.

The late king had to step in one time to restrain the military when they shot students, not sure they would dare these days with everybody a reporter with their phone cameras.

Point taken, however, I am talking about the general public, it would be similar to Hong Kong debacle, Thailand's military government would be no different than the Chinese government, they wont let go of having 'power over the people'.

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The real decline is probably a bit more than 1,5%....From what I see with my own eyes at the airport and in BKK, I'd say 50%   

The policy of not allowing people to make frequent visits is probably not going to do much for tourist arrivals.   The problem seems to be that they don't actually want tourists   only their

Tourism is the second most important sector they have in Thailand and they are killing it with the strong baht. Retirement is another big revenue and they plan to kill it with absurd insurance premium

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On 10/11/2019 at 2:05 PM, legend49 said:

Or higher. Downtown CNX you can count those tourists on your hands no need for a calculator. But its all good news I am sure they will find more hospital countries to visit.

Thais will still need to use a calculator!

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On 10/11/2019 at 2:32 PM, Lacrimas said:

Tourism is the second most important sector they have in Thailand and they are killing it with the strong baht. Retirement is another big revenue and they plan to kill it with absurd insurance premiums. Export is dying because of the strong baht. I forecast a recession in Thailand for 2020-2021.

Hope so.

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On ‎10‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 8:57 AM, Snuller21 said:

Year on year in Pattaya, it seems more like 50%, will even say up to 65%. But I am NOT TAT, who come with it. I am just living here for 12 years and have seen decline during the last 9 years. Year on year.

there is no substantial decline. never ever. only less increase but still all is good. And if you walk the streets of Pattaya and see 50% less visitors or if you talk to business owners crying, well porobably you misundersood it all. ... Thai style to look away and then never fix problems they dont see... and yes. a good idea to make it harder for people who still would like to retire in Thailand.

 

You don`t like farangs coming but you don`t like farangs not coming too ... well, you must be a Thai!

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there is no substantial decline. never ever. only less increase but still all is good. And if you walk the streets of Pattaya and see 50% less visitors or if you talk to business owners crying, well porobably you misundersood it all. ... Thai style to look away and then never fix problems they dont see... and yes. a good idea to make it harder for people who still would like to retire in Thailand.
 
You don`t like farangs coming but you don`t like farangs not coming too ... well, you must be a Thai!
Rather weird comment

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26 minutes ago, huntandcollect said:

Rather weird comment

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There has been no decline in numbers so he's right. Maybe less farangs, but more than replaced by other ethnicities.

A decline of about 50 % would actually be good for Pattaya. That would take the population back to around what it was in the 90s when Pattaya was great. The problems of the present are because the city expanded far too fast without any sort of plan to accommodate so many. The roads that could carry the car numbers in mid 90s are still the same ( except for the atrocious widening of Beach Rd that is a farce ) and not able to carry present numbers.

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20 hours ago, sunnyboy2018 said:

As the last truly international and free spirited city in Thailand...many people do. And it gets repeat visitors.  The people who criticize it are usually people who gave never visited the place.

or just spent 5 minutes driving along Beach and Second and visited Walking St. Have no idea of anything beyond those places, or perhaps they thought they were getting the real thing, but she had big hands and feet:-)

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14 hours ago, fruitman said:

Today in foodland the Presto canned tomato from Italy costs one baht more than in december last year while the euro is much lower.....the Thai are just far too greedy.

OMG - how could they - greedy indeed 1 baht - will never buy a can of tomatoes again.

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8 hours ago, huntandcollect said:

Rather weird comment

Gesendet von meinem SM-N950F mit Tapatalk
 

10 hours ago, P100 said:
there is no substantial decline. never ever. only less increase but still all is good. And if you walk the streets of Pattaya and see 50% less visitors or if you talk to business owners crying, well porobably you misundersood it all. ... Thai style to look away and then never fix problems they dont see... and yes. a good idea to make it harder for people who still would like to retire in Thailand.
 
You don`t like farangs coming but you don`t like farangs not coming too ... well, you must be a Thai!

Rather weird comment

 

 

Melbun said :

NOT A WEIRD COMMENT: There is no net increase of tourists. It remains the same. Unchanged !!

Edited by Melbun
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I can only speak for myself, but when I first came here as a backpacker, I was always checking the exchange rate. Back then it got to 75 baht to the pound. Some people say tourists don’t care about the exchange rate. I can’t say that’s true for the tourists I met when I was a tourist here. 

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On 10/11/2019 at 3:20 PM, SoilSpoil said:

Plastic on the beaches, smoke in the mountains, rivers that look and smell like open sewers, and congested roads in Bamgkok. A corrupt police force, tourist scams where ever you go, drinking bans and aggresive taxi drivers.

 

Yes, I understand why a lot of peoole are giving Thailand a miss.

 

You forgot, island killings.

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13 minutes ago, Rimbuman said:

 

You forgot, island killings.

On 10/11/2019 at 7:20 PM, SoilSpoil said:

Plastic on the beaches, smoke in the mountains, rivers that look and smell like open sewers, and congested roads in Bamgkok. A corrupt police force, tourist scams where ever you go, drinking bans and aggresive taxi drivers.

 

Yes, I understand why a lot of peoole are giving Thailand a miss.

Sound like London or Birmingham or  Leeds

Look closer to home and make a comparison. Irrelevant if you are coming as a tourist for less than 30 days, A 2 week millionaire as it were.

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It's obvious that tourists who would like to visit Thailand are from "low-middle-class and every penny

count. So first thing they look at is value for money at the exchange rate, and i am sorry, but I have to

tell the Minister for tourism, your Baht is in a disastrous shape. Vietnamese and Cambodian Tourism

Departments are laughing all the way to the bank. 

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It's obvious that tourists who would like to visit Thailand are from "low-middle-class and every penny
count. So first thing they look at is value for money at the exchange rate, and i am sorry, but I have to
tell the Minister for tourism, your Baht is in a disastrous shape. Vietnamese and Cambodian Tourism
Departments are laughing all the way to the bank. 


I doubt very much that if every penny counted, they would be going on international holidays.

In any event, do you really think the Ministry of Tourism or even Finance fo that matter control the value of the Baht?
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10 hours ago, mogandave said:

In any event, do you really think the Ministry of Tourism or even Finance fo that matter control the value of the Baht?

 

 

The government has a very big influence on the value, yes...  Thailand has many laws in place to prevent money going out of the country. They could change that. The interest in Thailand is high compared to other countries. They could change that too.  But for some reason they do nothing.

 

 

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The government has a very big influence on the value, yes...  Thailand has many laws in place to prevent money going out of the country. They could change that. The interest in Thailand is high compared to other countries. They could change that too.  But for some reason they do nothing.
 
 


Do you think they should try to manipulate their currency to devalue it?

How would allowing people to take money out of the county devalue the currency? In any event, they allow money to be taken out, just not currency.

The interest is high compared to what countries?
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On 10/11/2019 at 3:20 PM, Partenavia said:

If you walk past a Travel Agent shop in the UK, look at the exchange rates, currently £1 = 33 Baht!!

My mate got 35 in Feb in a Bkk hotel, took him to super rich where at least he got 39. Right he said lets buy a drink, can't mate it's 2.30, he thought I was joking. This was after he got ripped off as soon as he landed for the unpaid 'tax' on a tour and pick up he had already paid for which came to a mysterious 1k. Not impressed with Bkk he moved on to Kho Samui where he was last in 1988, it was somehow not quite the same, he's never coming back!

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The government has a very big influence on the value, yes...  Thailand has many laws in place to prevent money going out of the country. They could change that. The interest in Thailand is high compared to other countries. They could change that too.  But for some reason they do nothing.
 
 


BoT interest is 1.5%.
Thai banks mortgages are 7%.
Civilized countries banks‘ margin is less than 1%. Go figure.
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Do you think they should try to manipulate their currency to devalue it?

How would allowing people to take money out of the county devalue the currency? In any event, they allow money to be taken out, just not currency.

The interest is high compared to what countries?
It's basic supply and demand. Thai currency is strong for many reasons, but the fact that Thailand is an export economy and a tourist economy means a very strong demand for thai currency. Relaxing currency controls would mean selling thai baht as the currency leaves the country, thus putting downward pressure on the thai exchange rate.

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Just now, CLS said:

 


BoT interest is 1.5%.
Thai banks mortgages are 7%.
Civilized countries banks‘ margin is less than 1%. Go figure.

 

Siam Commercial Bank is big. And owned by? The others are also well connected with 'good' people.

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5 hours ago, mogandave said:

 


Do you think they should try to manipulate their currency to devalue it?

How would allowing people to take money out of the county devalue the currency? In any event, they allow money to be taken out, just not currency.

The interest is high compared to what countries?

 

 

-Yes

-Thailand has many laws restricting money going out. Restrictions about investing abroad etc

-In the EU we have a negative interest at the moment. It is not strange that a lot of people convert their money to TBH and put it in a Thai bank.

 

I don't like the negative interest in the EU. I think it is wrong. But Thailand can better adapt. There is too much money going to Thailand, increasing the value of the Baht.

 

 

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4 hours ago, CLS said:

BoT interest is 1.5%.
Thai banks mortgages are 7%.
Civilized countries banks‘ margin is less than 1%. Go figure.

 

 

Maybe there is a bigger risk lending people money?  More bad loans?

 

 

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6 hours ago, brucec64 said:

It's basic supply and demand. Thai currency is strong for many reasons, but the fact that Thailand is an export economy and a tourist economy means a very strong demand for thai currency. Relaxing currency controls would mean selling thai baht as the currency leaves the country, thus putting downward pressure on the thai exchange rate.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

I agree with the first part but the second part is not quite right. At present, currency controls mean that Thai Baht must already be sold before it is exported so I'm not sure what you have in mind. The part of the  BOT currency controls that is relevant is that exporters must exchange money earned from exports, typically USD in 60% of cases, into THB within one year, plus that USD (or other foreign currency must be repatriated within twelve months). I have seen recently that BOT is currently extending those time frames to relieve upwards pressure on THB.

 

And currency controls also means that overseas banks cannot hold more than a predefined limit of THB, if they do, BOT will not allow Thai banks to transact with them. The fact the Baht is not fully convertible means there is a captive market for its value, if that market was extended or increased overseas the value of THB would fall. But that possibility opens up the risk of speculative attacks on the currency and a repeat of 1997 which is something most people want to avoid of course. Because THB is such a small currency it doesn't take much to move it in one direction or another, at least today Thai exporters have exchange rate stability albeit it remains too high on the scale.

 

One area where BOT could do more is to stem the inflows of hot money into government bonds which are seen globally as a very safe proposition. A few years ago BOT implemented capital controls whereby anyone who exported funds within one year incurred a 15% (?) tax, that was a harsh and crude measure but it was effective.

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