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London retains global finance throne amid Brexit chaos

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16 hours ago, bristolboy said:

The loss of EU business won't happen quickly. Over time, the odds are it will be, not death, but impairment by a thousand cuts. Finance is a highly technical business but also a highly regulated one. The shift should happen slowly.

 

We'll see.

 

Many years ago, over 25, a Chinese PhD professor of economics told me that the Chinese vision for the future financial "capitals" of the world were Shanghai, London and New York. She dismissed Frankfurt and Paris as non contenders in reality.

 

She maintains the same view. China typically take a much longer view than Westerners. 

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16 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

It will be like a marriage, even after a divorce you pay in one way or another.

 

And that goes both ways in this case. Which is why a great many people don't want it, on both sides.

 

Having said that, assuming the UK wasn't leaving. At some point the harmonization of law across the EU members and legal systems will have to be addressed. The current EU leadership will need this as they march towards federalism. The UK (apart from Scotland) and Ireland have common law systems. The rest codified law systems mostly based on Napoleonic law. France will always champion codified as apart from anything else it's always unwilling to change anything! That would not be unacceptable to most of the UK and not sure Ireland will readily accept it.

 

That wasn't even mentioned during the Brexit campaign, as both sides were too busy with their fake news, lies and propaganda!

 

 

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Funny PR article of who knows they going to lose big time !
London if a no deal will be the one who will suffer more, despite pro BS BJ faux propaganda!

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16 hours ago, sanemax said:

Is London still located in the U.K ?

I read reports that everyone and all business have moved elsewhere to Europe .

  Didnt all the banks in London  move to Europe and take all their money with them ?

Must have done. Local bar owner told me last night.

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20 hours ago, sanemax said:

Is London still located in the U.K ?

I read reports that everyone and all business have moved elsewhere to Europe .

  Didnt all the banks in London  move to Europe and take all their money with them ?

I have a couple of European bank accounts and they have recently located to London. So maybe it's the reverse 

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Bank regulations only cover certain people, and will only cover where you're specifically dealing with European customers directly. (or possibly Euro settlements - but then you have the problem that anything they do to block Euro settlements in London would also block Euro settlements in New York, Hong Kong, Tokyo, etc.)

 

The people actually dealing with European customers have to move. (Generally some of the traders, some of the higher up managers, and some of the risk staff - whatever is required for the regulator in the country they move to in order to get the required banking licence.)

 

But nobody's moved the support staff (yet), because anyone in those areas that could be replaced easily was already outsourced to India or the Phillipines, or Singapore, or Warsaw... because there was no requirement for them to be physically in the EU anyway.

 

What will probably happen is, as traders look to hire local support staff, that more hiring will be in Europe, and as someone leaves in London, they'll maybe get replaced by someone in Frankfurt or Luxembourg. But if they're working for (for example) a US bank, they'll need to speak English, which (maybe not in Luxembourg, but definitely in Germany) will reduce the possible candidate list.

 

The biggest issue is that, essentially, nowhere in Europe, outside London, is big enough to take in all the jobs..., so there is no obvious winner inside the EU. So the banks will carry on taking a wait and see attitude for the people that they don't HAVE to move. This is, after all, why, after the Single Market was formed in 1993, all the financial jobs in the EU moved to the UK in the first place - because London was the obvious Financial Centre of the EU...

 

But remember - Brexit hasn't actually happened yet...

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/jpmorgan-brexit-plans-job-move-london-eu-luxembourg-no-deal-a8532691.html

 

Edited by bkk_mike
Typo
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Brexit will be great for the British banking industry; we’ll be free from the self-righteous, interfering bureaucrats and policemen of Europe chasing hot money, and our launderettes will be running 25 hours per day until the kleptocrats in Russia and elsewhere run out of money, or we get shut down because people won’t accept grey money any more.  Luckily our Rees-Mogg and the rest of our elders and betters will have sufficient clean money washed away upon sunnier shores, and no-one need worry but our children and their children.

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4 hours ago, StreetCowboy said:

Brexit will be great for the British banking industry; we’ll be free from the self-righteous, interfering bureaucrats and policemen of Europe chasing hot money, and our launderettes will be running 25 hours per day until the kleptocrats in Russia and elsewhere run out of money, or we get shut down because people won’t accept grey money any more.  Luckily our Rees-Mogg and the rest of our elders and betters will have sufficient clean money washed away upon sunnier shores, and no-one need worry but our children and their children.

Is thaT satire ?

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Off-topic post removed.

 

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On 10/15/2019 at 12:43 PM, Chomper Higgot said:

The chaos hasn’t yet started.

 

All the financial institutions in London still have tariff free access to the rest of the EU.

Didn,t germany,sorry the eu want to impose taxes on Britain's financial service industries?

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29 minutes ago, kingdong said:

Didn,t germany,sorry the eu want to impose taxes on Britain's financial service industries?

I very much doubt whether France, Germany, Italy, not to mention the overarching governance of the EU, would be able to resist imposing tax regimes on financial businesses moving to Paris, Frankfurt or Milan. At least a "windfall tax" which would inevitably become a permanent revenue stream. 

 

I suspect that International Financial business also knows that.

 

"Tobin Tax" and "We can't accept a Singapore in the North Sea" are two phrases we can expect to hear more...

Edited by JAG
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22 hours ago, soalbundy said:

It will be like a marriage, even after a divorce you pay in one way or another.

My first wife ,didnt get paid ,she stole , 

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