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UK border risks snarl up in no-deal Brexit - audit office


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UK border risks snarl up in no-deal Brexit - audit office

By Guy Faulconbridge

 

6541.PNG

An employee monitors screens inside the control tower at the Port of Dover, Britain October 11, 2019. REUTERS/Simon Dawson

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The United Kingdom’s border risks being snarled up in a no-deal Brexit because as few as 30 percent of traders are prepared, the European Union would introduce controls and organised crime groups would exploit weaknesses, the National Audit Office said.

 

The United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on Oct. 31 and while Prime Minister Boris Johnson is trying to strike a last-minute deal, he has said that if the EU refuses then he will lead the world’s fifth-largest economy out without an agreement.

 

A no-deal exit, the nightmare for many businesses, would be abrupt with trade reverting to basic World Trade Organization rules: new customs controls, tariffs and non-tariff barriers would be applied to 438 billion pounds ($554 billion) of trade.

 

The most significant risks remain the low proportion of traders ready for the new checks, the likelihood of EU controls and the unsustainable nature of any compromise on the Northern Irish border, the National Audit Office said in a report.

 

“Although the government has actions under way to influence these, mitigating these risks is now, to some extent, out of its control,” the government’s spending watchdog said.

 

“It is impossible to know exactly what would happen at the border in the event of no-deal on 31 October 2019.”

 

Over 228 million tonnes of freight - equivalent to 760,000 jumbo jets - crossed between the United Kingdom and the rest of the EU in 2018, so any disruption could swiftly turn southern England and northern France into sprawling lorry parks as ports came to a standstill.

 

Dover, Europe’s busiest ferry port, is as prepared for Brexit as it can be but there are uncertainties over the extent to which freight operators are ready for new declarations and whether France will keep goods moving, the port’s chief executive, Doug Bannister, told Reuters.

 

NO-DEAL BREXIT

 

The British government’s no-deal war gaming is sobering.

 

The number of annual customs declarations would balloon from around 55 million to 270 million and just 30-60% of heavy goods vehicles travelling across the Channel might be ready for French customs, the audit office said.

 

In the latest worst-case no-deal scenario, Britain estimates cross-Channel flow rate would fall to 45-65% of current levels on the first day after Brexit, it said.

 

Only about 25,000 of the 150,000 to 250,000 traders that may need to make a customs declaration in the event of a no-deal Brexit had registered with a scheme that allows them to delay submitting their declarations and payments of import duties.

 

“A large proportion of traders and businesses would not be ready for new customs and regulatory controls if the UK leaves without a deal,” the audit office said. “EU member states are likely to introduce controls which would significantly reduce the flow of traffic that is able to cross the border.”

 

If hauliers are not ready for the checks, then they would be diverted from going to port. In a worst‑case scenario, just over 3,000 lorries a day, or 80% of lorries carrying loads, may need to be diverted because they do not have the right documents.

 

Those without the right documents will be diverted to Ashford in Kent for up to 24 hours while they seek appropriate documents. If truckers then try to proceed to the Channel ports without the right documents, the drivers will be subject to a 300-pound fine.

 

“Despite the government’s actions, it has been unable to mitigate the most significant risks to the effective functioning of the UK border in the event of no deal and the border would be ‘less than optimal,’” the audit office said.

 

“It is likely that organised criminals and others would quickly exploit any perceived weaknesses, gaps or inconsistencies in the enforcement regime,” it added.

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-10-16
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Project fear at its finest, . Anyone heard of Immingham , a port on the East Coast of the UK. One of the biggest and busiest in Europe, It can cope with double the capacity its handling now, There are more ports then Dover, believe it or not.

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I guess there’s plenty of gangsters at Immingham ready to forge paperwork, which is why they’re advertising here. Are the ferries ready as well?

 

I see the upcoming reduction in Britain’s industrial output as the biggest green initiative since China’s Great Leap Forward.  

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2 hours ago, Thongkorn said:

Project fear at its finest, . Anyone heard of Immingham , a port on the East Coast of the UK. One of the biggest and busiest in Europe, It can cope with double the capacity its handling now, There are more ports then Dover, believe it or not.

 

Do they have a tunnel?

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I think the borders would be a bit chaotic for 2-3 weeks after No Deal and then everyone would adjust to the additional paperwork, rules etc. and things would return to normal.

 

We import from plenty of non EU countries with no trade deal in place with no issues at all.

 

Project Fear ramping up ahead of 31st ????????.

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Good for the DUP saying No they realise that an ever closer customs union with the South would have made a United Ireland that much closer and any infrastructure would be a target for the New Ira and other assorted paramilitary/criminal malcontents. And make no mistake Boris realises the disaster that No Deal will bring so I have never been more optimistic that there will be No Brexit which was always the best option.  That ditch is ready Boris get ready to self-immolate in it - don't make promises that you can't keep. Didn't your parents teach you that. Nigel unleash the Brexit Dogs of War at the coming election......

 

 

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I think the borders would be a bit chaotic for 2-3 weeks after No Deal and then everyone would adjust to the additional paperwork, rules etc. and things would return to normal.
 
We import from plenty of non EU countries with no trade deal in place with no issues at all.
 
Project Fear ramping up ahead of 31st [emoji42][emoji99].
Hard Brexiteers who do no research at all poo-poo those who do. Usual misdirection. Here, "I think..." = No idea at all.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

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Good for the DUP saying No they realise that an ever closer customs union with the South would have made a United Ireland that much closer and any infrastructure would be a target for the New Ira and other assorted paramilitary/criminal malcontents. And make no mistake Boris realises the disaster that No Deal will bring so I have never been more optimistic that there will be No Brexit which was always the best option.  That ditch is ready Boris get ready to self-immolate in it - don't make promises that you can't keep. Didn't your parents teach you that. Nigel unleash the Brexit Dogs of War at the coming election......
 
 
I would be somewhat reluctant to cheer on the DUP for anything at any time.

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16 hours ago, Thongkorn said:

Project fear at its finest, . Anyone heard of Immingham , a port on the East Coast of the UK. One of the biggest and busiest in Europe, It can cope with double the capacity its handling now, There are more ports then Dover, believe it or not.

Project fear!  Always the same chant, day after day, week after week.  No point in trying to highlight problems that will be caused by Brexit when people are in such denial.

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2 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

I would be somewhat reluctant to cheer on the DUP for anything at any time.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

I agree with your sentiment but feel tactically if it stymies Johnson's promise then we have a greater chance of a remain coalition in the coming new parliament. Somewhat fanciful I know but we are all war weary and for nothing....

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Just now, dunroaming said:

Project fear!  Always the same chant, day after day, week after week.  No point in trying to highlight problems that will be caused by Brexit when people are in such denial.

One reason why you should never listen to the 'will of the people'. Only folk with an IQ of 100 or more should be allowed to vote .

 

 

 

Image result for iq distribution uk

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13 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Hard Brexiteers who do no research at all poo-poo those who do. Usual misdirection. Here, "I think..." = No idea at all.

Sent from my SM-N935F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Well, the boss of Calais port has said there will be very few problems. We import plenty of goods from non EU countries (with no trade deal) and have very few problems.

 

So tell me, how do you know (not think) that it's going to be a complete disaster? You don't. You're panicking and trying to convince everyone that you are right to panic. So yes, I "poo-poo" your Project Fear BS.

 

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17 hours ago, Thongkorn said:

Project fear at its finest, . Anyone heard of Immingham , a port on the East Coast of the UK. One of the biggest and busiest in Europe, It can cope with double the capacity its handling now, There are more ports then Dover, believe it or not.

The Port of Immingham, also known as Immingham Docks, is a major east coast port, located on the south bank of the Humber Estuary west of Grimsby, near the town of Immingham. In 2012, the Port of Immingham was the largest port in the United Kingdom by tonnage with 60 million tonnes of cargo passing through that year.[1]  With its Oil TerminalBulk Terminal for coal export and iron ore import; the Immingham Gas Jetty (1985) for LPG import; and the Humber International Terminal (2000, expanded 2006) for bulk cargos. Immingham Outer Harbour Roll-on/Roll-off terminals

So, BY FAR NOT sufficient for all incoming and outgoing lorries with merchandise. Not important to be the port with the highest flow of all goods, but that of goods so hard needed as consumer- and Industrial components goods.

 

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40 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

One reason why you should never listen to the 'will of the people'. Only folk with an IQ of 100 or more should be allowed to vote .

 

 

 

Image result for iq distribution uk

If that's a fact, how on earth did you find the polling station.... Obviously not on your own....????

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1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

I think the borders would be a bit chaotic for 2-3 weeks after No Deal and then everyone would adjust to the additional paperwork, rules etc. and things would return to normal.

 

We import from plenty of non EU countries with no trade deal in place with no issues at all.

 

Project Fear ramping up ahead of 31st ????????.

You forget there is some experience still from the times the UK was not a member yet, in the 60-s. Then not a fraction of the present in- en export to the EU had to pass the customs, on BOTH sides, with their paperwork, inspections, custom clearance etc.

The biggest of the two will NOT be the goods from the EU to the UK, but the opposite way: 1 Nov, 00:00:001 the customs set the marker for UK goods under "third countries", meaning: inspection, VAT, import duty under WTO-rules, waiting till all is done etc, while now: touch the gas pedal and move. All British ( NFS, BRC) certificates are no longer accepted, so a LOT of merchandise is in trouble.

Remind: about half comes and goes to the EU, mostly in lorries, via Dover. Just 14 days till disaster will strike.

imp-exp 2018 acc HoC lib briefing paper 7851 of 24 July 2019.jpg

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2 minutes ago, transam said:

If that's a fact, how on earth did you find the polling station.... Obviously not on your own....????

Last time I was measured for a MRI Scan based research on brain patterns - I was 132 which puts me in the top 2% so I shall have to wear this burden by making decisions for my less gifted brethren. Maybe everybody gets a minimum of 1 vote and the more gifted multiple votes- I'll have 5 please. 

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2 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Could you provide the citation for that quote please?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/11/no-deal-lorry-mayhem-dover-calais-cest-la-bullsh-replies-french/

 

"No-deal Brexit lorry chaos at Dover and Calais? 'C'est la bullsh**' replies French ports chief"

 

Unfortunately The Torygraph operates behind a paywall, so I have had to quote from the first paragraph of the report only.

 

I don't seem to be able to get the font down to the right size either - it's probably all Boris' fault!

 

 

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37 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Last time I was measured for a MRI Scan based research on brain patterns - I was 132 which puts me in the top 2% so I shall have to wear this burden by making decisions for my less gifted brethren. Maybe everybody gets a minimum of 1 vote and the more gifted multiple votes- I'll have 5 please. 

I've never had a brain scan - but I am reasonably confident that I have a functioning model. I wouldn't like to venture a guess as to which percentage I fall into - although I am sure that there are some here who have views on the matter...

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6 minutes ago, JAG said:

I've never had a brain scan - but I am reasonably confident that I have a functioning model. I wouldn't like to venture a guess as to which percentage I fall into - although I am sure that there are some here who have views on the matter...

I shall gift you 10 votes.....

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