webfact Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Baht to further strengthen, expert warns By THE NATION The baht could further strengthen to Bt29 per dollar, a Kasikornbank analyst warned this week. In an economic climate deeply affected by the US-China trade war and a global slowdown, the baht is expected to strengthen further, reaching Bt30.50 to the US dollar by the end of the year, Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank said It could appreciate to between Bt29.20 and Bt29.30 by the end of next year, a 5-year high, he added. This was due to a number of factors, the first being that the US-China trade war would continue to depress the global economy. The chance of global economy entering recession next year now stands at 26 per cent, and could lead to more capital flowing in to subscribe to Thai bonds. The second factor is the high possibility that international rating agencies Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings will upgrade Thailand’s sovereign credit rating from triple B plus to A minus (BBB+ to A-) in the next 12 months. The market has priced in coming credit upgrades as the rate of credit default swap (CDS) of Thai debts has been below the rate charged for BBB+ rating for a while, he noted. Third, Thailand’s high current account surplus, the combined result of tourism revenue, fall in imports and low domestic investment would continue to underpin the strong baht. The surplus this year will reach $34 billion, he said. Thai economic growth is expected to expand by 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, while growth in the third quarter is estimated at 2.7 per cent. The Thai economy is predicted to expand 2.8 per cent for the full year. “The government stimulus packages including the ‘Eat, Shop and Spend’ programme will boost the economy in the final quarter,” he predicted. The US-China trade war and Brexit would largely determine the direction of the global economy. Uncertainty about the trade relationship and the Brexit deal has led many central banks to ease policy in order to shore up economies, but their actions would be a temporary solution and could not fully compensate for real economic reforms. Investment in the Thai stock market will not see much activity in the fourth quarter as investors turn their attention to bonds due to slow economic growth, he said, pointing out, however, that investment in some stocks offered higher returns than bonds. Investors would therefore have to pick shares carefully. The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut its policy rate again next week with two more cuts coming in 2020,” he added. The Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy committee will lower its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent this year, he said. Related Story: KBank eyes 4-6% growth in loans next year Related Story: BOT plans measures to curb baht’s rapid appreciation -- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-10-25 Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking Thailand news and visa info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Power of life yoga Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 30 minutes ago, webfact said: “The government stimulus packages including the ‘Eat, Shop and Spend’ programme ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keith101 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 As the Thai baht gains more strength exports and tourism will fall even further and dropping the its rate by just 25 basis points will do nothing for the economy . It seems destined for the Aussie dollar to drop below todays rate of 20.6 to into the 19s by next year making it impossible for me at least to continue living here and will probably lead to my divorcing my wife and returning to Aus forever , at least back home a dollar is worth a dollar and wont change . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBadGeordie Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just1Voice Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 My bill go up, buy my money to pay them goes down. ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PJPom Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 The current Australian pension is approximately 37,900 baht, a reasonable sum to live on in Thailand but of course it doesn’t meet the Immigration requirement. I think that we just have to sit it out and hope that the US and China get their act together and things improve. It may be that the Aussie dollar is worth a dollar but how much will it buy, for me the only benefit of moving back would be health care and seeing that I believe I will just drop dead one day it isn’t a game changer. To those of you seeing only a gloomy future don’t give up, always look on the bright side . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadbury Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, webfact said: It could appreciate to between Bt29.20 and Bt29.30 by the end of next year, a 5-year high, he added. What about Bt28.5 by September next year as some are predicting. Should that happen it will make a huge dent in exports and put the country into an economic death dive. What will Khun Prayut Chan-o-cha self appointed Chairman of the Economic Management Committee do then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticky Wicket Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Oh joy of joys Why don't they put those dollars to good use rather than hoarding them to manipulate the currency! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveK Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Cadbury said: What will Khun Prayut Chan-o-cha self appointed Chairman of the Economic Management Committee do then? Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Creasy Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 The Aussie $ will go further down against the THB when they cut the interest rates again in OZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brer Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 20 minutes ago, PJPom said: The current Australian pension is approximately 37,900 baht, a reasonable sum to live on in Thailand but of course it doesn’t meet the Immigration requirement. I don’t know how you can live on that figure, I guess you just eat lettuce, live alone and don’t go anywhere. You must be a lucky one to get that amount, the part pension they give me is substantially less. I budget and review every month there is no way I could live on 38k baht with my wife and we don’t live a decadent life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yinn Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, Sticky Wicket said: Oh joy of joys Why don't they put those dollars to good use rather than hoarding them to manipulate the currency! The surplus this year will reach $34 billion, he said. Thai economic growth is expected to expand by 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, while growth in the third quarter is estimated at 2.7 per cent. The Thai economy is predicted to expand 2.8 per cent for the full year. The US-China trade war and Brexit would largely determine the direction of the global economy. Uncertainty about the trade relationship and the Brexit deal has led many central banks to ease policy in order to shore up economies Thailand ok. If world slump, we will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nyezhov Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 56 minutes ago, keith101 said: probably lead to my divorcing my wife and returning to Aus forever well take her with you, and if you cant afford to, you shouldnt have married her in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keith101 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Nyezhov said: well take her with you, and if you cant afford to, you shouldnt have married her in the first place. Already taken her and hates it and we have been married for nearly 10 yrs and together for over 13 and did not expect the exchange rate to get so bad . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marin Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 hour ago, keith101 said: It seems destined for the Aussie dollar to drop below todays rate of 20.6 to into the 19s by next year making it impossible for me at least to continue living here and will probably lead to my divorcing my wife and returning to Aus forever Why would the Australian dollars fall cause you to divorce your wife. How are these two different problems connected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nong Khai Man Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, keith101 said: Already taken her and hates it and we have been married for nearly 10 yrs and together for over 13 and did not expect the exchange rate to get so bad . My Mrs " Loved " The U.K,But We just could NOT Afford to live there on my very REDUCED Pension...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveK Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, Yinn said: The surplus this year will reach $34 billion, he said. Thai economic growth is expected to expand by 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, while growth in the third quarter is estimated at 2.7 per cent. The Thai economy is predicted to expand 2.8 per cent for the full year. The US-China trade war and Brexit would largely determine the direction of the global economy. Uncertainty about the trade relationship and the Brexit deal has led many central banks to ease policy in order to shore up economies Thailand ok. If world slump, we will be ok. You of all people should know that any figures in Thailand are 100% fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jip99 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, SteveK said: You of all people should know that any figures in Thailand are 100% fiction. I won’t take your comment as 100% then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy cow cm Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 37 minutes ago, Cork Soaker said: get real, that's only enough to survive on. It’s enough to live fine on. BTW. Cork Soaker from SNL? Best skit ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jip99 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, keith101 said: Already taken her and hates it and we have been married for nearly 10 yrs and together for over 13 and did not expect the exchange rate to get so bad . Bad choice by your wife.......... she should have gone for Japanese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy cow cm Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 If the baht floats that strong it is certainly going to turn exports of certain commodities sour and value added non Thai products that can be produced in nearby countries like Vietnam to get the business. And the many expats that will have to leave will just be sad to their Thai loved ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stigar Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I choose to stay only 4-6 months a year in thailand.I have pension enough to have a good life there.Anyway i will stay 6-8 months a year in norway.Thailand is expencive for many to live in,even thais complain because everything gets more expencive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nong Khai Man Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 minute ago, stigar said: I choose to stay only 4-6 months a year in thailand.I have pension enough to have a good life there.Anyway i will stay 6-8 months a year in norway.Thailand is expencive for many to live in,even thais complain because everything gets more expencive. But I Thought Norway was SUPER Expensive....400 Baht for a PINT Of Beer ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveK Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, Nong Khai Man said: But I Thought Norway was SUPER Expensive....400 Baht for a PINT Of Beer ?? Same as some pubs on Sukhumvit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 24 minutes ago, Yinn said: Only 1600 baht per month. 50 baht per day. I am shock you divorce for that. Might have to do border run option no need to prove income or money in the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nong Khai Man Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, SteveK said: Same as some pubs on Sukhumvit. One Word then Steve...............AVOID !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baansgr Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 38 minutes ago, Yinn said: 20.6 to 19. So 35,000 per month will be 1600 less. And you will divorce? For 1,600 baht? True love? Maybe get a job/work permit? Its not the 1,600...more like the 16,000 less than a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henryford Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 53 minutes ago, keith101 said: I DONT KNOW WHERE YOU GOT THAT FIGURE FROM but my next payment due Monday will be around 35,200 well under what your saying and going down despite the bi-annual increases to the pension . The actual 28 day payment is $1,700.80 which the basic amount which all overseas pensioners get . Think yourself lucky my UK pension (after 35 years of contributions) is under $AUS1000 for 28 days with NO inflation increases, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 31 minutes ago, Yinn said: The surplus this year will reach $34 billion, he said. Thai economic growth is expected to expand by 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, while growth in the third quarter is estimated at 2.7 per cent. The Thai economy is predicted to expand 2.8 per cent for the full year. The US-China trade war and Brexit would largely determine the direction of the global economy. Uncertainty about the trade relationship and the Brexit deal has led many central banks to ease policy in order to shore up economies Thailand ok. If world slump, we will be ok. If the world slumps Thailand empoyment will dive as will people's ability to repay the exceptionally high household debt and when the banks crash the foreign money will evaporate and Thailand may well find itself up deep sh!t creek without a paddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marqus12 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I am sure that my country's currency would collapse by about 10-20% in a similar situation as I observe here . Strange baht . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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