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Financial Crisis Beginning in Thailand

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1 hour ago, SteveK said:

Thailand eventually wants to become financially independent from tourism altogether, and shed their international reputation as a haven for sex-pats and criminals.

Stop Thai women selling themselves would seem the easiest option to get rid of the 'seedy reputation'.

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Yep!  I’d say your analysis and observations are very accurate.  The Elysian days of Thailand are over.  Many expats are moving on to other places.  Only occasional Chinese, Indian, and hell’s angeles biker gang left.   Next stage is Dante’s inferno.

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21 minutes ago, jackdd said:

The number of people living in China is not much different to the number of people living in Europe + America

And as i said before, i have no idea why you want to discuss about this part, this has nothing do with my first post which you claimed to be wrong.

Very quickly and last post on this because we are into bickering territory:

 

You wrote, "So to replace one western tourist they need about 3 Chinese tourists"....not true.

 

Using numbers from your link, rounded for simplicity sake:

 

Tourist Arrivals x Average Length of Stay x Average Daily Spend.

 

China - 9,847 x 8 (= 78,776 Tourist days) x 193 = 15,204 million

Europe - 6,322 x 17 (= 107,474 Tourist days) x 125 = 13,434 million.

 

Out

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I would say yes a financial crisis could be in the making for Thailand but,

Not for the obvious reasons of Higher Baht or Lack of tourism.

 

Instead I would point out the irrational exuberance.

For years now they have overbuilt both subdivisions & condos

Next they overbuilt shopping malls. Never asking themselves who will buy

these & with what income? Who will shop these malls & with what income?

 

Instead they rush in & later when stuck holding inventory they offer the same easy type loans they did in the USA back when they also showed the same signs right before their big crisis.

 

Thailand may not have the same recovery options the US had when their mortgage holding citizens start sending in their jungle mail ( house keys forfeited) Or car & credit card holders default.

 

Hopefully I am wrong but it does look similar to US in 2007-2008

 

 

Edited by meechai
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15 hours ago, Puchaiyank said:

It is not that we do not believe you...it is that we can not believe you found it necessary to post it...

Why on earth would anyone pay such high prices. You've been conned.

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14 hours ago, Traubert said:

Yup, just a negligible 4.9m westerners or so.....

 

Although Britain is 13,000 down from it's peak. Woe is Thailand at the lack of fighting beer boys from Bolton.

You talking to me cocker? See you outside The Tahitian Queen in Pattaya for a straightener. Loser buys the Leos. Up the Whites!

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8 hours ago, jackdd said:

They don't understand that more arrivals doesn't mean the total time of all tourists spent in Thailand increases as well.

Chinese people stay maybe 3-5 days in average in Thailand

Western tourists might stay 2 weeks in Thailand

So to replace one western tourist they need about 3 Chinese tourists.

It would be interesting to see how long the average tourist stays in Thailand and how this number changed over the years, but i doubt that's looking good for Thailand so they don't release this number.

From Wikipedia:

"Despite the increasing number of tourist arrivals, some businesses catering to the tourist trade report declining numbers. Mr Sompoch Sukkaew, chief legal counsel of the Patong Entertainment Business Association (PEBA) in Phuket, said in January 2016 that entertainment businesses are suffering. "Over the past three years, most bars were averaging about B90,000 revenue per day at this time of year,...now they're making just B40,000. Small bars...used to average B40,000 to B50,000 a day, now they're down to just B10,000 per day....PEBA members generated about B1.5 million per day during the peak season. Now it's down to about B540,000 per day." PEBA members number 500 in Patong, with about 200 businesses in the Bangla Road entertainment area. PEBA President Weerawit Kuresombat attributed the decline to the rise in Chinese tourism. "...most of them [Chinese tourists] come on complete tour packages....This means they spend very little on extras....They rarely venture out for the nightlife or even visit independent restaurants. They just don't spend much", he said.[50]"

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17 minutes ago, saengd said:

Very quickly and last post on this because we are into bickering territory:

Only you are bickering, you claim you are right, but the numbers to which you refer show something different

 

17 minutes ago, saengd said:

China - 9,847 x 8 (= 78,776 Tourist days) x 193 = 15,204 million

Europe - 6,322 x 17 (= 107,474 Tourist days) x 125 = 13,434 million.

China has about twice the population of Europe, so according to your numbers one European equals about 2 Chinese tourists, regarding their spending in Thailand per visit. I can agree with this, the 3 Chinese = 1 western which i assumed in my first post might have been a bit too high.

Edited by jackdd

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16 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

It would be interesting to see how long the average tourist stays in Thailand and how this number changed over the years, but i doubt that's looking good for Thailand so they don't release this number.

About 15 years ago you could easily find these statistics on the official TAT website, before they were taken off. I remember that, back then, the average stay of a tourist was 2 or 3 weeks, compared to 7-8 days now, meaning that income from the 10-11 million tourists back then equals that of 20 or 25 million tourists now. (Average daily spending back then was equal or only slightly lower than today, but prices were much lower in 2004!) - Meaning (at 2004 prices), Thailand's tourism income has barely doubled, while tourist numbers have quadrupled, not to mention the much higher pollution and damage to Thailand's natural environment.

Edited by StayinThailand2much

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Could be happening yes.

 

At my wife's work last week they let go around 600 temperarely workers/subcontractors and they also stopped the overtime every day what they could do.

 

And you already could read on TV that factories already cut their production numbers for export like Toyota and Sony.

 

Think the most stable situation for everybody would be around 42-44bht/euro.

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Yeah, if I look into my pockets...... I agree with you...... financial crisis... Definitely 😈

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17 hours ago, Banana7 said:

 

These are strong indicators that a financial crisis is beginning in Thailand.

No I can't agree with you. Baht very strong, money flowing in , can't imagine why your worried about the hotel trade.

 

john

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