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Export forecast for 2019 goes sub-zero


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Export forecast for 2019 goes sub-zero

By THE NATION

 

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Thai exports are expected to contract between 1.5 and 2 per cent for the full year, the Commerce Ministry announced on Thursday (November 21).

 

Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, was downgrading a prior prediction of zero growth in 2019.

But the situation is expected to improve next year, she said.

 

Contraction this year might not reach 2 per cent if the baht does not further strengthen in value against foreign currencies and there is no further steep plunge in global oil prices.

 

She said exports to shrink this month, then expand next month.

 

The department announced on Thursday (November 21) that the overall Thai export sector shrank in October by 4.57 per cent, leaving total trade value at US$20.8 billion.

 

Pimchanok said a 25-per-cent-plus decrease in the price of oil and lower demand for commodities including rice and rubber were chiefly to blame.

The effects of international trade wars are improving, as can be seen in a rise in Thailand’s electronics exports, she said.

 

But there are other harmful contributing factors, such as the baht’s appreciation and Brexit worries, that can affect Thai exports in the long term.

 

Total exports for the first 10 months of 2019 were valued at $207 billion, a 2.4-per-cent decrease from the same period last year.

 

Pimchanok expects exports next year to expand by at least 2 per cent since exporters have already adjusted to the trade-war situation and are seeking out new markets.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30378614

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-11-22
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6 minutes ago, moobie said:

Not mentioned is a Tariff-free agreement on trade between the EU and VIetnam which is in the offing. The consequences for the Thai manufacturing industry can only be imagined to be in the negative.

 

Also worth mentioning is that the EU put trade and tariff negotiations with Thailand on hold in 2014, following the coup, Thailand's neighbours are therefore picking up trade benefits not available to Thailand.

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1 hour ago, BuckBee said:

the lower demand for rice was purely down to price and quality, same for rubber .

currently thailand priced itself out of the market and rice and rubber reputation both low in traders eyes .

You mean the standard Thai style economics of putting the price up when there is less demand didn't work?

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3 hours ago, webfact said:

Export forecast for 2019 goes sub-zero

How does the PM say that the Thai economy is doing very well and is growing?
For years the economy has been going badly, and if the government says that 2019 there has been an increase of 1.8-2%, it will probably be 0.0!
During my life I have learned that believing 50% of what a politician says is already too much!

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5 minutes ago, 30la said:

How does the PM say that the Thai economy is doing very well and is growing?
For years the economy has been going badly, and if the government says that 2019 there has been an increase of 1.8-2%, it will probably be 0.0!
During my life I have learned that believing 50% of what a politician says is already too much!

What measure of the economy do you want to use?

 

GDP? the economy grew in 4Q19 , it went from 2.3 to 2.4.2D4114B8-907A-47AD-A37B-59E743C704B8.jpe

 

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1 hour ago, saengd said:

Also worth mentioning is that the EU put trade and tariff negotiations with Thailand on hold in 2014, following the coup, Thailand's neighbours are therefore picking up trade benefits not available to Thailand.

Also worth mentioning that Thailand is in bad odour with both the EU and the US because of human rights issues particularly in the fishing industry; hence the the US scrapping certain trade preferences.

But all Thailand does is whimper and whine instead of fixing the problem. Military bullies are not big on human rights and compassion. And Prayut has only ever shown it his usual tokenism.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/trump-scraps-thailands-us13-billion-trade-preferences-on-labour

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11 minutes ago, Momofarang said:

But let us dream: the best case scenario for a return to democracy and freedom might involve a massive economic downturn exposing this government obvious incompetence.

The only people who get hurt from that scenario is the Thai people as they loose their income, livelihoods, assets etc etc.

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38 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

Also worth mentioning that Thailand is in bad odour with both the EU and the US because of human rights issues particularly in the fishing industry; hence the the US scrapping certain trade preferences.

But all Thailand does is whimper and whine instead of fixing the problem. Military bullies are not big on human rights and compassion. And Prayut has only ever shown it his usual tokenism.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/trump-scraps-thailands-us13-billion-trade-preferences-on-labour

I wonder how different human rights are in the fishing industries of the two countries!

 

Dec 21, 2017 - Vietnam is pushing its fishing industry to clean up its act after a threat ... taking the issue, in November its parliament passed a new fisheries law ...https://www.ft.com/content/963c4aa8-e6c4-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da

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31 minutes ago, saengd said:

What measure of the economy do you want to use?

 

GDP? the economy grew in 4Q19 , it went from 2.3 to 2.4.2D4114B8-907A-47AD-A37B-59E743C704B8.jpe

 

You invite the question......" What measure of the economy do you want to use?"

If you have no objection I want to use GDP growth (YoY) from the 3Q 2017 to 3Q 2019 where it goes downhill from 4.5% to 2.4%. 

I might add that taking quarterly movements in isolation is pretty much meaningless but if you get some joy and hope from it so be it.

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4 hours ago, webfact said:

But the situation is expected to improve next year, she said.

Can't see why ? Baht is still strong and shows no sign of let up, the business and factories that export are closing and all the customers they exported to will have found alternative suppliers. My expectation - if the baht starts to go back to normal - is years of a mere 1% whilst Thai companies undercut like crazy to get the business back.

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16 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

You invite the question......" What measure of the economy do you want to use?"

If you have no objection I want to use GDP growth (YoY) from the 3Q 2017 to 3Q 2019 where it goes downhill from 4.5% to 2.4%. 

I might add that taking quarterly movements in isolation is pretty much meaningless but if you get some joy and hope from it so be it.

Actually no I don't, the sole reason I used that chart is because another poster in a separate thread on a related subject used it against me in his argument to suggest the Thai economy was falling off a cliff!

 

But back to your argument. A two year look at YoY GDP growth is a pretty small window, it's so short that it's likely to include all manner of anomalies and is most likely to highlight the impact of the trade war as much as anything else. It's a bit like trying to measure a persons wealth by seeing how much money he has in the bank during the first week of each month when he's paid monthly on the first.

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3 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

It’s Economics 101.  Any country with an outrageously high currency, must fall back to domestic markets, or transform to high value cutting edge technology (not gonna happen in Thailand).

You made that up! ????

 

That rule doesn't even begin to apply to any of the top ten countries with highest value currencies.

 

https://fxssi.com/top-10-of-the-strongest-world-currencies-in-current-year

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3 hours ago, Creasy said:

I'm not an economist .

 

But, can someone please explain to me how Brexit affects Thailands export figures ?

Because the UK pound loses in value especially versus the TBH as the thai bath is rising simultaniously. So every good exported from Thailand to UK has two price increases: the dropped pound and the increased TBH.

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8 minutes ago, Enki said:

Because the UK pound loses in value especially versus the TBH as the thai bath is rising simultaniously. So every good exported from Thailand to UK has two price increases: the dropped pound and the increased TBH.

Don't give up your day job, not just yet:

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/brexit-and-its-impact-on-thailand/

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