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Johnson on track for 24-seat majority - Focaldata

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Johnson on track for 24-seat majority - Focaldata

 

2019-12-10T210646Z_1_LYNXMPEFB91SV_RTROPTP_4_BRITAIN-ELECTION-JOHNSON.JPG

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks at a general election campaign event at the Globus Group warehouse in Manchester, Britain, December 10, 2019. REUTERS/Toby Melville

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is on track for a 24-seat majority after Thursday's general election, polling company Focaldata forecast on Tuesday, down sharply from its forecast last month of an 82-seat majority.

 

Focaldata predicted that the Conservatives would win 337 seats in the 650-seat parliament, followed by Labour on 235, the Scottish National Party with 41, and the Liberal Democrats with 14 based on its forecasting model and recent polling data.

 

This compares with a previous forecast on Nov. 27 that the Conservatives would win 366 seats, which assumed no tactical voting by supporters of smaller parties and is based on a so-called MRP analytical model.

 

"Things are incredibly finely balanced. We calculate (around) 67 seats that are incredibly marginal and are essentially too close to call," Focaldata said.

 

YouGov, a larger polling company, is due to publish its closely watched final election forecast around 2200 GMT. YouGov's last forecast, also on Nov. 27, predicted a 68-seat majority for Johnson.

 

Datapraxis, another polling company, forecast a 38-seat majority on Dec. 7.

 

(Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Sandra Maler)

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-12-11
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3 minutes ago, Dogmatix said:

Unfortunately by fielding a totally unelectable leader in Jeremy Corbyn Labour has probably elected  the lying bufoon, Johnson, and doomed the UK to a self destructive hard Brexit at the end of 2020, while preparing the way for the fragmentation of the union. I no longer blame the SNP for wanting to secede and the Northern Irish protestants will eventually have to face union with the Catholic South due to Johnson's deal which sold them down the river. 

 

Probably the first group to be disappointed in Johnson's second term will be the Tory extreme right wing nutters in the ERG, Jacob Rees Mogg et al.  He has only coopted them to for the referendum, the leadership contest and this election. Once he has a decent majority with their help and has got Brexit done, he will free to sell them down the river too, as he has done with everyone in his life so far - the ultimate narcissist. He knows that ERG policies and attitudes will not keep him in power beyond Brexit.

Depends on the size of the majority that Johnson gets. If it's a small majority then he'll need the ERG's support to get the numbers in the HOC. He'd need to be careful about selling them down the river.

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14 minutes ago, sandyf said:

You obviously believe that parliament has no say in what the government does.

They might go with the American model.

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Many similarities with the last elections in the US and Australia.

Conservatives win because the labor/democratic parties put forward unpopular, unelectable candidates 

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