Explainer: Reality check for Johnson's Brexit: it's just the beginning

[webfact]

Explainer: Reality check for Johnson's Brexit: it's just the beginning

By Gabriela Baczynska and John Chalmers

 

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson holds his dog Dilyn as leaves a polling station, at the Methodist Central Hall, after voting in the general election in London, Britain, December 12, 2019. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez

 

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Prime Minister Boris Johnson appears set for a sweeping election victory on a promise to "Get Brexit done", but there is a reality check waiting for jaded voters who are feeling relieved that the messy divorce seems to be finally over.

 

It's just the beginning.

 

With early vote-counting indicating a handsome Conservative majority, Johnson should be able to finally secure parliamentary approval for the withdrawal agreement he struck with the European Union in October so that Brexit happens on Jan. 31.

 

Britain will then go into a status-quo transition period until the end of 2020, which Johnson has said leaves ample time to negotiate a new relationship with the EU, including on trade.

 

But EU diplomats and officials say the following issues will be sticking points which, if not ironed out, could yet take Britain to the cliff edge of a no-deal exit one year from now.

 

TIME

The EU hopes to start trade talks with Britain by March, leaving just 10 months to strike a deal and get it approved by London and the EU, including member states' parliaments.

 

Trade agreements with the EU typically take years to complete, and few in Brussels believe the transition period will be long enough to seal a deal with Britain.

 

The transition period can be prolonged by one or two years but London must request an extension by the end of June.

 

LEVEL PLAYING FIELD

The EU insists it will not seal a trade deal with a large, economically powerful and near neighbour without solid provisions to guarantee fair competition.

 

The EU's demands will focus on environmental and labour standards, as well as state aid rules to ensure Britain would not be able to offer products on the bloc's single market at unfairly low prices.

 

In addition to Johnson's push for a "zero tariff, zero quota" trade deal, the bloc wants a guarantee of "zero dumping".

 

"If the UK becomes a cross between a casino and Singapore on Thames, we will be very focused on level playing field issues,” a senior EU diplomat said.

 

Britain's conundrum is that it will be under pressure to loosen rules on agricultural and food standards to strike a bilateral trade deal with the United States, but this would be crossing a red line for the EU, which would restrict access to its market to protect its own producers.

 

FISHERIES

Fishing is a thorny issue because EU countries will no longer be able to operate in British waters as they are now.

 

The two sides will probably negotiate fishing quotas, as the EU currently does with Norway, whereby so-called total allowable catches are shared among EU countries but officials say this will be a drawn-out and potentially acrimonious process.  

 

RULES OF ORIGIN

With industry supply chains in the EU currently crossing borders multiple times for products like cars and drugs, agreeing exact rules to designate where products come from - and hence what regulations and taxes apply - will also be tricky.

 

SECURITY & DATA SHARING

The EU and Britain have vowed to work closely on security, including by sharing sensitive data for criminal cases. However, agreeing such procedures with third countries has proven complicated and time-consuming for the EU in the past.

 

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED?

EU diplomats said that with a large majority in parliament, Johnson may pay less heed to his own hardline Brexiteers who want a deep split from the bloc as he negotiates a future relationship.

 

He may also feel under less pressure to stick to his pre-election pledge not to extend the transition period beyond 2020.

 

However, if Johnson fails to reach an agreement with the EU by the end of next year, and he refuses to negotiate past his own deadline, then the legal default would still be a no-deal divorce.

 

(Editing by Mark Bendeich)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-12-13

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[melvinmelvin]

Very good that it is stressed that this is just the beginning.

Cannot be said often enough, too many do not understand that.

 

[roquefort]

3 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

Very good that it is stressed that this is just the beginning.

Cannot be said often enough, too many do not understand that.

 

At least it's the end of the beginning.

[jvs]

4 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

Very good that it is stressed that this is just the beginning.

Cannot be said often enough, too many do not understand that.

 

Yes and also recognize that the EU and the UK can not do without each other.

They will still trade of course and there will be a lot of water going thru the Thames before it is all said and done.

There will be a lot of things that need ironing out and it may be the end of the UK

as we know it.

[TopDeadSenter]

5 minutes ago, jvs said:

There will be a lot of things that need ironing out and it may be the end of the UK

as we know it.

Oh stop it. You lost. We will be fine. Better than fine. 5 more years of a government rewarding hard work and entrepreneurial spirit. Now, if the EU survives the next 5 years I will be very surprised.

[JHolmesJr]

Barnier and the rest of the EU tsars must be in a bit of a panic. For too long they have

capitalised on the weak majority of a PM that handicapped the ability to get things done in the Uk's 

interests ....now it's going to be different.

[jvs]

1 minute ago, TopDeadSenter said:

Oh stop it. You lost. We will be fine. Better than fine. 5 more years of a government rewarding hard work and entrepreneurial spirit. Now, if the EU survives the next 5 years I will be very surprised.

I did not mean the Uk will not be fine at all!I am not pro EU ,you got me all wrong.

I was talking about Scotland and what might happen there.

I hope more countries will stand up and leave the EU.

[Pedrogaz]

I think expect the unexpected is correct. Johnson is a fool but perhaps not as big a fool that would sign the deal on the table. I have a notion that he might revive the no deal option as leverage and try to negotiate something better. I certainly hope so.....what is the point of leaving if you are still giving away sovereignty over your fisheries, markets, laws etc. None as far as I can see. 

[Foghorn]

I hope the MPs that betrayed the people have lost their jobs

[david555]

20 minutes ago, Pedrogaz said:

I think expect the unexpected is correct. Johnson is a fool but perhaps not as big a fool that would sign the deal on the table. I have a notion that he might revive the no deal option as leverage and try to negotiate something better. I certainly hope so.....what is the point of leaving if you are still giving away sovereignty over your fisheries, markets, laws etc. None as far as I can see. 

Oh come on....! sign that bloody "May Boris witdraw agreement" as it is the only good thing why I like Boris  won this is a good "May Boris witdraw agreement"  we liked it ,get it true HOC. so don't ruin it now we can get on with the follow up trade agreement

 

PS : was this not named a vassal deal …? lol...

[dunroaming]

Obviously a disappointing night but not completely surprising.  Tories were always going to win but the margin is higher than I thought it would be.  In my constituency we ran Raab close but couldn't unseat him, clearly too many of retired majors rallied around him.  I am sure there is a positive somewhere in there but for now I can't see it.  No wait there is one!  It finally gets rid of the truly dreadful Corbyn and hopefully Abbot as well.

 

In the meantime, to my Brexiteer chums on TV.  Fill your boots gentlemen, a clear victory for your side.

[Monomial]

So question...

 

I was talking with a group yesterday who said that previously, when it became clear he was going to be forced to ask for an extension, Boris capitulated and basically gave into everything the EU demanded in order to get a deal.  He did this because he wanted an election, and didn't want the election to be about whether or not a deal was possible.

 

However, having gained such a huge mandate last night, the comments were that he would now go back to the EU and demand additional concessions on some of the less palatable areas in order to get the deal passed by parliament. With a new parliament that would support his "agree or we leave with no deal" stance to the EU, he may have a stronger bargaining position this time.

 

I think would be a risky position to take with the electorate, but since when did any politician actually care about the people? Just curious if you guys think this scenario is wishful thinking by a fringe group wearing tinfoil hats, or if this was an actual strategy that Boris may now decide to pursue in light of his commanding majority.

 

[Moonlover]

Surprisingly, no mention at all of the most perplexing issue of all, the Irish/NI border. When one considers that this has been the major stumbling block all along, I find that most strange.

[Grusa]

1 hour ago, Moonlover said:

Surprisingly, no mention at all of the most perplexing issue of all, the Irish/NI border. When one considers that this has been the major stumbling block all along, I find that most strange.

**** the Irish. Nothing but troublemakers, all of them.

[Moonlover]

27 minutes ago, Grusa said:

1 hour ago, Moonlover said:

Surprisingly, no mention at all of the most perplexing issue of all, the Irish/NI border. When one considers that this has been the major stumbling block all along, I find that most strange.

 

27 minutes ago, Grusa said:

**** the Irish. Nothing but troublemakers, all of them.

So much for an interesting and enlightening conversation!

[roquefort]

2 hours ago, Monomial said:

So question...

 

I was talking with a group yesterday who said that previously, when it became clear he was going to be forced to ask for an extension, Boris capitulated and basically gave into everything the EU demanded in order to get a deal.  He did this because he wanted an election, and didn't want the election to be about whether or not a deal was possible.

 

However, having gained such a huge mandate last night, the comments were that he would now go back to the EU and demand additional concessions on some of the less palatable areas in order to get the deal passed by parliament. With a new parliament that would support his "agree or we leave with no deal" stance to the EU, he may have a stronger bargaining position this time.

 

I think would be a risky position to take with the electorate, but since when did any politician actually care about the people? Just curious if you guys think this scenario is wishful thinking by a fringe group wearing tinfoil hats, or if this was an actual strategy that Boris may now decide to pursue in light of his commanding majority.

 

As you say he capitulated in order to get a "deal" (which is actually just a withdrawal agreement) particularly on the issue of the Irish border, as another poster has pointed out. He now has to get a real deal done in 12 months (although he now has wriggle room to let the deadline slip a bit).

 

I think it's quite possible that this was the intention all along. Whatever one thinks of Dominic Cummings, he has proved himself to be a master strategist and has made the right calls every step of the way.

 

[damascase]

Cartoonist Jos Collignon, yesterday in the Dutch De Volkskrant:

UK after Brexit

[OneMoreFarang]

4 hours ago, JHolmesJr said:

Barnier and the rest of the EU tsars must be in a bit of a panic. For too long they have

capitalised on the weak majority of a PM that handicapped the ability to get things done in the Uk's 

interests ....now it's going to be different.

I am sure lots of EU politicians and citizens are happy that finally there is a majority in the UK for some version of Brexit. The EU was from the start ready for many different versions of Brexit. The UK politicians couldn't make up their mind what they wanted.

I guess now they will go ahead with Boris version. Fine. Great. Do it.

 

But then lets see what ideas the UK politicians have about a free trade agreement with the EU. I am afraid they will look again for those hidden unicorns. Or will the UK accept that they are the junior partner who has to accept reality?

[sawadee1947]

It was indeed an overwhelming victory for Boris. 

However integrity, decency and sincerity lost. 

What a shame for Britain. 

[roquefort]

43 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I am sure lots of EU politicians and citizens are happy that finally there is a majority in the UK for some version of Brexit. The EU was from the start ready for many different versions of Brexit. The UK politicians couldn't make up their mind what they wanted.

I guess now they will go ahead with Boris version. Fine. Great. Do it.

 

But then lets see what ideas the UK politicians have about a free trade agreement with the EU. I am afraid they will look again for those hidden unicorns. Or will the UK accept that they are the junior partner who has to accept reality?

Do you think Germany (on the verge of recession) really wants to have 25% tariffs imposed on all the BMWs, Mercs and Audis they sell to the UK?  That's 6.6% of their exports and more importantly 2.6% of their GDP. Enough to tip them over the edge.

[roquefort]

10 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

It was indeed an overwhelming victory for Boris. 

However integrity, decency and sincerity lost. 

What a shame for Britain. 

So which one of the alternative parties actually represented integrity, decency and sincerity? You surely can't be thinking of Corbyn & Co?

[OneMoreFarang]

10 minutes ago, roquefort said:

Do you think Germany (on the verge of recession) really wants to have 25% tariffs imposed on all the BMWs, Mercs and Audis they sell to the UK?  That's 6.6% of their exports and more importantly 2.6% of their GDP. Enough to tip them over the edge.

I am too lazy to check the official numbers but somehow I don't believe what you write.

 

Are you suggesting that the export of German cars to the UK is equal to 2.6% of the German GDP? That must be a LOT of cars just being exported to the UK.

[roquefort]

7 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I am too lazy to check the official numbers but somehow I don't believe what you write.

 

Are you suggesting that the export of German cars to the UK is equal to 2.6% of the German GDP? That must be a LOT of cars just being exported to the UK.

There are a LOT of German cars in the UK. The figures come from the BBC (maybe not what it used to be, but still fairly reliable on statistics) and represent all German exports to the UK, not just cars. But you get my point.

[elliss]

4 hours ago, dunroaming said:

 

 

In the meantime, to my Brexiteer chums on TV.  Fill your boots gentlemen, a clear victory for your side.

 

         The honeymoon ,  will not last for long , before reality kicks in .

           Gbp ,  already falling from it,s short time high .

           Expats , transfer now ...

 

[sawadee1947]

1 hour ago, roquefort said:

So which one of the alternative parties actually represented integrity, decency and sincerity? You surely can't be thinking of Corbyn & Co?

Of course not. 

The present bunch of polititians are not representing those virtues. 

Sure it was Boris starting with a style copied from Donald. He divided UK and lost Scotland just following his ego-trip. 

[Denim]

For Boris , a new beginning.

 

But for Cornbyn , the end of the line. Marxism in the UK is once again dead and buried.

 

Amusing to see Corbyn being savaged by those in his party who have lost their constituency and have been kicked of the political gravy train. Oh how upset they must be. The socialist cash cow has died for them and now they need to find a real job within the loathed capitalist system. How awful.

 

 

[puipuitom]

8 hours ago, JHolmesJr said:

Barnier and the rest of the EU tsars must be in a bit of a panic. For too long they have

capitalised on the weak majority of a PM that handicapped the ability to get things done in the Uk's 

interests ....now it's going to be different.

With a 285 Bn pounds export to the EU, a 5% import duty will be a LOT better for the EU than the net UK contribution of a 7,9Bn pounds.. 

[puipuitom]

2 hours ago, roquefort said:

I am too lazy to check the official numbers but somehow I don't believe what you write.

Are you suggesting that the export of German cars to the UK is equal to 2.6% of the German GDP? That must be a LOT of cars just being exported to the UK.

 

There are a LOT of German cars in the UK. The figures come from the BBC (maybe not what it used to be, but still fairly reliable on statistics) and represent all German exports to the UK, not just cars. But you get my point.

Gives an idea about UK competiviness. Remind: despite a fall of the GBP from a € 1,35 to €1,10 and now recovered to €1,20. I presume Der Kaiser will smile in his grave.

[puipuitom]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I am sure lots of EU politicians and citizens are happy that finally there is a majority in the UK for some version of Brexit. The EU was from the start ready for many different versions of Brexit. The UK politicians couldn't make up their mind what they wanted.

I guess now they will go ahead with Boris version. Fine. Great. Do it.

 

But then lets see what ideas the UK politicians have about a free trade agreement with the EU. I am afraid they will look again for those hidden unicorns. Or will the UK accept that they are the junior partner who has to accept reality?

Boris will run now for his no-deal brexit. Only let all run out of the rails and.. finished 31 Dec 2020

[nauseus]

6 hours ago, Monomial said:

So question...

 

I was talking with a group yesterday who said that previously, when it became clear he was going to be forced to ask for an extension, Boris capitulated and basically gave into everything the EU demanded in order to get a deal.  He did this because he wanted an election, and didn't want the election to be about whether or not a deal was possible.

 

However, having gained such a huge mandate last night, the comments were that he would now go back to the EU and demand additional concessions on some of the less palatable areas in order to get the deal passed by parliament. With a new parliament that would support his "agree or we leave with no deal" stance to the EU, he may have a stronger bargaining position this time.

 

I think would be a risky position to take with the electorate, but since when did any politician actually care about the people? Just curious if you guys think this scenario is wishful thinking by a fringe group wearing tinfoil hats, or if this was an actual strategy that Boris may now decide to pursue in light of his commanding majority.

 

He must have been advised that there are conditions in the WA that make this "deal" more BRINO than clear cut BREXIT. It is still mostly the same "deal" as May's failure! If he is concerned about some of these conditions (as he should be) then might decide to use his new clout to press for some amendments to these. I hope that he does at least try.