Explainer: Reality check for Johnson's Brexit: it's just the beginning

[tebee]

2 hours ago, roquefort said:

Do you think Germany (on the verge of recession) really wants to have 25% tariffs imposed on all the BMWs, Mercs and Audis they sell to the UK?  That's 6.6% of their exports and more importantly 2.6% of their GDP. Enough to tip them over the edge.

German car imports to the UK where €22 billion last year - but some of that was car parts for cars that were assembled in the UK. German GDP was €3.6 trillion in the same year so it's only 0.6% of GDP 

I thought the tariff on cars was going to be 10%?

 

Anyway whatever tarif it is will have to be applied under WTO rules to all cars imported after Brexit,( and Post-Brexit there will be NO UK car manufacturing) so instead of German cars being 25 or 10% more expensive than everybody elses, it just means all car will be  25 or 10% more expensive.

 

This may reduce demand, but people are still going to be buying German ( and other) cars.

[melvinmelvin]

36 minutes ago, tebee said:

Anyway whatever tarif it is will have to be applied under WTO rules to all cars imported after Brexit,( and Post-Brexit there will be NO UK car manufacturing)

 

is that so?

 

Allard and Lotus and Morgan moving where?

 

[Loiner]

8 minutes ago, tebee said:

,( and Post-Brexit there will be NO UK car manufacturing) so instead of German cars being 25 or 10% more expensive than everybody elses, it just means all car will be  25 or 10% more expensive.

 

This may reduce demand, but people are still going to be buying German ( and other) cars.

No UK car manufacturing? You have decreed that yourself have you?

 

Reduced demand is good for the current trade imbalance and those UK produced motors. They will still be produced here regardless of your prohibition. 

[welovesundaysatspace]

4 hours ago, roquefort said:

Do you think Germany (on the verge of recession) really wants to have 25% tariffs imposed on all the BMWs, Mercs and Audis they sell to the UK?  That's 6.6% of their exports and more importantly 2.6% of their GDP. Enough to tip them over the edge.

And how do you conclude 6.6% (or 2.6%) are “Enough to tip them over the edge”? Does that come from the same data geniuses who tried to answer the “who needs whom more” question by using the balance of trade? 

[Stargeezr]

Reality check, just how rich are all the EU countries, Germany, okay, Switzerland, Ok.

How about the rest, are they well away from bankruptcy, or is only Greece, Italy, and

a few others close to it?  Just wondering.

Geezer

[Laughing Gravy]

8 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

Of course not. 

The present bunch of polititians are not representing those virtues. 

Sure it was Boris starting with a style copied from Donald. He divided UK and lost Scotland just following his ego-trip. 

I am pretty sure you and many other posters were telling us that the majority was for remain and that people wanted the Cons out. Obviously, you like the media have no idea what the people on the street really want.

[candide]

9 hours ago, roquefort said:

Do you think Germany (on the verge of recession) really wants to have 25% tariffs imposed on all the BMWs, Mercs and Audis they sell to the UK?  That's 6.6% of their exports and more importantly 2.6% of their GDP. Enough to tip them over the edge.

 

6 hours ago, tebee said:

German car imports to the UK where €22 billion last year - but some of that was car parts for cars that were assembled in the UK. German GDP was €3.6 trillion in the same year so it's only 0.6% of GDP 

I thought the tariff on cars was going to be 10%?

 

Anyway whatever tarif it is will have to be applied under WTO rules to all cars imported after Brexit,( and Post-Brexit there will be NO UK car manufacturing) so instead of German cars being 25 or 10% more expensive than everybody elses, it just means all car will be  25 or 10% more expensive.

 

This may reduce demand, but people are still going to be buying German ( and other) cars.

As far as I remember, 2.6% is the share of total German exports to the UK. To compare with around 8% of UK GDP from exports to the EU.

[adammike]

6 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

is that so?

 

Allard and Lotus and Morgan moving where?

 

Lotus is now controlled by a Chinese company and Morgan was acquired by an Italian company it was the last British owned car manufacturer.

I don't know how much of the cars components are British made.

 

[tebee]

36 minutes ago, candide said:

 

As far as I remember, 2.6% is the share of total German exports to the UK. To compare with around 8% of UK GDP from exports to the EU.

German exports to the UK last year were 719 billion Euro or about 20% of their GDP but it's apparently well down this year already, it will probably reduce more after Brexit.

On the other hand exports to other countries will increase as they will get a share of the UK's lost export markets.  

[nkg]

21 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

Very good that it is stressed that this is just the beginning.

Cannot be said often enough, too many do not understand that.

 

 

As always, our chum from Norway knows better than any of us. We are lucky to have him.

[nkg]

46 minutes ago, tebee said:

German exports to the UK last year were 719 billion Euro or about 20% of their GDP but it's apparently well down this year already, it will probably reduce more after Brexit.

On the other hand exports to other countries will increase as they will get a share of the UK's lost export markets.  

 

Yeah, Bulgaria and Romania will snap up those extra BMW and Mercedes cars.

[nauseus]

6 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

Reality check, just how rich are all the EU countries, Germany, okay, Switzerland, Ok.

How about the rest, are they well away from bankruptcy, or is only Greece, Italy, and

a few others close to it?  Just wondering.

Geezer

Switzerland not in EU. Netherlands do OK.

[candide]

8 hours ago, tebee said:

German exports to the UK last year were 719 billion Euro or about 20% of their GDP but it's apparently well down this year already, it will probably reduce more after Brexit.

On the other hand exports to other countries will increase as they will get a share of the UK's lost export markets.  

You must have made a calculation mistake.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46612362

[sawadee1947]

9 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I am pretty sure you and many other posters were telling us that the majority was for remain and that people wanted the Cons out. Obviously, you like the media have no idea what the people on the street really want.

"what the people on the street really want."

Wow, you will tell me? As someone from the street? ????

 

[sawadee1947]

15 hours ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

is that so?

 

Allard and Lotus and Morgan moving where?

 

Jeez, who is talking about those back yard sheds? 

[melvinmelvin]

1 hour ago, sawadee1947 said:

Jeez, who is talking about those back yard sheds? 

 

many a fine product was "born" in a shed / garage in backyards

 

(I thought all 3 were still assembled in the UK, regardless of ownership)

 

[Laughing Gravy]

1 hour ago, sawadee1947 said:

"what the people on the street really want."

Wow, you will tell me? As someone from the street? ????

 

 I can tell you for the endless months on here you and other posters have been telling us that the people have changed their minds and they don't want Brexit. Obviously, like your friend son here are out of touch with reality.

 

It isn't your fault. if you were British you would have a better understanding of the people from the North of England as an example, who have turned their backs on Labour and have put a government in who are taking the UK out of the EU.

 

Normally these threads are bombarded, mostly by Europeans telling us we have all made a mistake and a few others who just can't accept democracy but seem to be keeping quite.

 

The British electorate know better and my faith in the people has been restored.

 

[tebee]

1 hour ago, candide said:

You must have made a calculation mistake.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46612362

Yes, you are right 2% not 20%

 

Shouldn't try doing these things in middle of night .....

[melvinmelvin]

9 hours ago, nkg said:

 

As always, our chum from Norway knows better than any of us. We are lucky to have him.

 

I am not your chum.

 

It doesn't require much to be less dumb than you so even I can hack that,

so yes, somewhat good for you that I am around,

can assist in filling in the huge gaps in your intellect

[candide]

14 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 I can tell you for the endless months on here you and other posters have been telling us that the people have changed their minds and they don't want Brexit. Obviously, like your friend son here are out of touch with reality.

 

It isn't your fault. if you were British you would have a better understanding of the people from the North of England as an example, who have turned their backs on Labour and have put a government in who are taking the UK out of the EU.

 

Normally these threads are bombarded, mostly by Europeans telling us we have all made a mistake and a few others who just can't accept democracy but seem to be keeping quite.

 

The British electorate know better and my faith in the people has been restored.

 

The motives of people from the North of England and other places, who feel they have been left behind, is quite understandable.

I wonder how they will react when they realise that Brexit means a more liberal economic regime than before, in particular as implemented by the Tories.

[sawadee1947]

56 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

many a fine product was "born" in a shed / garage in backyards

5555 yeah, and some are still there as you mentioned 

[baboon]

41 minutes ago, candide said:

The motives of people from the North of England and other places, who feel they have been left behind, is quite understandable.

I wonder how they will react when they realise that Brexit means a more liberal economic regime than before, in particular as implemented by the Tories.

The next time I see them on "Look North", all perplexed at being shafted by the Tories, I shall crack open a cold one and settle back into the sofa. You voted for it, pal, now reap your harvest...

[sawadee1947]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 I can tell you for the endless months on here you and other posters have been telling us that the people have changed their minds and they don't want Brexit. Obviously, like your friend son here are out of touch with reality.

 

It isn't your fault. if you were British you would have a better understanding of the people from the North of England as an example, who have turned their backs on Labour and have put a government in who are taking the UK out of the EU.

 

Normally these threads are bombarded, mostly by Europeans telling us we have all made a mistake and a few others who just can't accept democracy but seem to be keeping quite.

 

The British electorate know better and my faith in the people has been restored.

 

I don't think you are right. 

As it was written in all media (and foreign) British were tired to listen to all the lies no matter where it comes from. They wanted an end of all this tormoil. Therefore the voted for Boris who got the advantage that people don't like Corbyn same as half of Labour followers. However the young ones favoured him. 

Anyway Brexit is not done at all. I have my doubts that up to June there will be hard facts how to go on. If not there will be no end of 2020 and the endless story will continue. 

So again I strongly believe UK voted for an end of a hung parliament and therefore for Boris and not because they are too stupid! 

[nauseus]

5 minutes ago, baboon said:

The next time I see them on "Look North", all perplexed at being shafted by the Tories, I shall crack open a cold one and settle back into the sofa. You voted for it, pal, now reap your harvest...

And your harvest... sour grapes?

[baboon]

3 minutes ago, nauseus said:

And your harvest... sour grapes?

Mine? None. I lost and that's that. It's all yours, now.

[Laughing Gravy]

26 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

I don't think you are right. 

As it was written in all media (and foreign) British were tired to listen to all the lies no matter where it comes from. They wanted an end of all this tormoil. Therefore the voted for Boris who got the advantage that people don't like Corbyn same as half of Labour followers. However the young ones favoured him. 

Anyway Brexit is not done at all. I have my doubts that up to June there will be hard facts how to go on. If not there will be no end of 2020 and the endless story will continue. 

So again I strongly believe UK voted for an end of a hung parliament and therefore for Boris and not because they are too stupid! 

Once again, you don't understand the British people. I thought more people wanted to remain than leave?? You have been peddling that lie on here for a long time. The electorate and people spoke. They want Brexit done.

 

The left wing liberal media have been trying to con the UK People that the election was very close for the last few weeks. Another lie, just like the one you are mentioning about a hung parliament.

 

I guess its a reason to make the loss feel justified.

[Mavideol]

1 hour ago, melvinmelvin said:

(I thought all 3 were still assembled in the UK, regardless of ownership)

with the majority of the components coming from China and/or from EU members, not much from the UK besides a little labor, not much profit in labor though

[Mavideol]

On 12/13/2019 at 9:37 AM, webfact said:

Britain's conundrum is that it will be under pressure to loosen rules on agricultural and food standards to strike a bilateral trade deal with the United States, but this would be crossing a red line for the EU, which would restrict access to its market to protect its own producers.

let the reality sink in, Trump already made a comment about it but BJ will find himself between a rock and hard place, can't have it both ways... 555

[Will E Vormer]

Cdnt bring myself to vote for party who's chief negotiator was wearing 2 left shoes

[sawadee1947]

2 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Once again, you don't understand the British people. I thought more people wanted to remain than leave?? You have been peddling that lie on here for a long time. The electorate and people spoke. They want Brexit done.

 

The left wing liberal media have been trying to con the UK People that the election was very close for the last few weeks. Another lie, just like the one you are mentioning about a hung parliament.

 

I guess its a reason to make the loss feel justified.

Pity that you didn't reply to my post. 

Anyway enjoy the moment of pyrrhus victory