oceans rising

[habuspasha]

It's probably presumptuous of me to open a topic on my second posting, but as I indicated in my introductory post I'm struggling with the prospect of global sea rises as I look to buy property in Thailand.  I'm wondering how members who take the latest scientific projections seriously confront and deal with this issue.  I'm thinking, for instance of the recent projection from climate central at https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/8/101.4654/11.8343/?theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=coastal_dem_comparison&elevation_model=coastal_dem&forecast_year=2050&pathway=rcp45&percentile=p50&return_level=return_level_1&slr_model=kopp_2014.

I find this enough to rule out Bangkok entirely (though I'm amazed at the building boom there) but wonder about the future of areas like the royal coast.  I don't consider climate central to be wildly alarmist.  I think they are conservative since they don't try to factor in such scenarios as arctic and antarctic glacial melt or other tipping events. Nor do I think a 30 year projection suddenly occurs on the last day of the 29th year.  I welcome your thoughts.

[Puchaiyank]

Purchase on a nearby mountain...maybe you will have waterfront property there in a few decades... 

[Gecko123]

Climate change is already a significant factor influencing location decisions all over the world. Sea level rise along coast lines is but one impact. The agricultural sector will be impacted due to drought, more extreme weather events, ground water depletion, and invasive agricultural pests. Thailand's tourism sector, highly dependent on its beaches and coastal cities to attract visitors, will be Impacted. Its fisheries will be impacted due to rising and warming oceans. The cost of living will be impacted due to rising food production costs. Wildfire risk is already heightened - just look at what's going on in Australia. All of the above will put ever more stress on Thailand's social fabric.

 

I anticipate that there will be some in climate change denial who will dismiss and attempt to ridicule the OP's concerns, but in my opinion, the OP would be foolish not to carefully evaluate potential impact of climate change when making a real estate purchase decision.

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by Gecko123

[thaibeachlovers]

42 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

Climate change is already a significant factor influencing location decisions all over the world. Sea level rise along coast lines is but one impact. The agricultural sector will be impacted due to drought, more extreme weather events, ground water depletion, and invasive agricultural pests. Thailand's tourism sector, highly dependent on its beaches and coastal cities to attract visitors, will be Impacted. Its fisheries will be impacted due to rising and warming oceans. The cost of living will be impacted due to rising food production costs. Wildfire risk is already heightened - just look at what's going on in Australia. All of the above will put ever more stress on Thailand's social fabric.

 

I anticipate that there will be some in climate change denial who will dismiss and attempt to ridicule the OP's concerns, but in my opinion, the OP would be foolish not to carefully evaluate potential impact of climate change when making a real estate purchase decision.

 

Perhaps you meant sea level rise along coast lines is but one impact for those that use it to bolster climate alarmist claims.

In NZ the sea level has NOT risen enough to be significant in the past 60 years. It is apparently rising at less than 3 mm a year, and I can't see any difference in my lifetime.

So, unless one claims that sea level is rising significantly in one part of the Pacific, while not rising in others, the claim that sea level rise is a clear and present danger is, IMO, a nonsense.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, habuspasha said:

I find this enough to rule out Bangkok entirely

Perhaps you do not know the real reason why Bangkok is in danger. The city is sinking, not the oceans rising.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts have been removed. 

 

 

Edit:  A post commenting on moderation has been removed. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by metisdead

[ivor bigun]

I was born at the seaside ,when i was a lad ,always remember standing on the rocks ,you could see some walls at low tide ,my grandad told me there used to be houses there ,but the sea had covered them , that was long before his time ,must have had global warming then ,but they never taxed it so they were lucky .

[samuttodd]

Sea levels rise and fall and there have been periods of time where the sea has been higher and lower than it is today,  and the climate has been hotter and colder than it is today.

 

The same thing that is happening on other planets in our solar system is happening here.  Climate catastrophes and increases of storms.     The sun and it's cycles is the main driver of these cyclic changes.  

 

There are solar cycles.   11 year cycles,  and 120 year cycles, and 3600 year cycles,  and about every 12068 years,  our sun goes Nova and that happens to coincide with Magnetic polarity of our planet (and all of the others in our solar system.)  All of these cycles are in synchronized and tied together.   (Cycles within Cyles.)   The next time our sun is supposed to nova is in 26 years (2046)

 

The nova cycle that took out the Egyptians, the Sumerians,  and the Mayans  and other established historical civilizations is still cycling along.  

 

As far as getting a place at the beach,   I wouldn't be terribly concerned with Sea levels rising and falling in the near term.   I would look carefully at anything on the Andaman,  because of tsunamis.   You will not have that issue on the Gulf of Thailand side. 

 

The entire planet will undergo catastrophic change when the sun's nova and the dust shell hit us.  Aside from the sun facing area being blasted with Gamma and other spectrum energies,   the atmosphere will be stripped for a short time and immediatly pushed to the dark side of the planet.     Shortly after this,   the atmosphere will come from a high pressure and re-establish itself globally resulting in a drop of atmospheric pressure.     When air goes from high pressure to low pressure,   it cools,   so after the Nova,   once pressures normalize,   we'll have an ice age.

 

 

This is pretty new information as it has been covered up by the CIA since the 1950's.

 

  The Diehold foundation has a good video on the subject.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=bMr-5HHnAmU&feature=emb_logo

 

That is why different governments have built trillions of dollars in underground base infrastructure and worked up contingencies for continuation of government for when the event happens.

 

I know that the information is pretty overwhelming and mind boggling.    I am not certain I'd want to live after the event,  Many people will survive,  but life as we know it would be over.   

 

The meek will inherit the earth.  

 

 

 

[timendres]

One more reason to not purchase property in Thailand.

[ballpoint]

6 minutes ago, timendres said:

One more reason to not purchase property in Thailand.

Yes, because sea level rise will only affect Thailand.  And, when it does, it will flood every province.

[Nyezhov]

20 minutes ago, timendres said:

One more reason to not purchase property in Thailand.

The main reason is that you cant buy land anyway. Just cheap made condos. You buy those to save on rent if you think thats a good financial decision. 

[ivor bigun]

26 minutes ago, Nyezhov said:

The main reason is that you cant buy land anyway. Just cheap made condos. You buy those to save on rent if you think thats a good financial decision. 

We have lived in Thailand many years ,as we did in the UK ,in the Uk ,the mortgage on our house was in my name ,here it is in my son and my wifes name ,its mine as much as our home in the UK was theirs ,ok so i cant"own it" but i do through them as they did through me , 

[Why Me]

Most of the Netherlands is below sea level. All of Amsterdam is 2m. below. Yet they seem to be muddling along.

 

My strategy would be to look for a condo project in Bkk with a lot of Dutch people in it and move in there at a high floor for added safety.

[tifino]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps you meant sea level rise along coast lines is but one impact for those that use it to bolster climate alarmist claims.

In NZ the sea level has NOT risen enough to be significant in the past 60 years. It is apparently rising at less than 3 mm a year, and I can't see any difference in my lifetime.

So, unless one claims that sea level is rising significantly in one part of the Pacific, while not rising in others, the claim that sea level rise is a clear and present danger is, IMO, a nonsense.

 

maybe NZ is itself rising on a volcanic bubble?

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, tifino said:

 

maybe NZ is itself rising on a volcanic bubble?

More likely a tectonic plate, but to say that it is rising at exactly the same rate as the sea is rising is a theory too far.

IMO the islands that are said to be sinking in the Pacific MAY be on a sinking tectonic plate.

 

BTW, only the north island is volcanic, so if it was a volcanic bubble the islands would be rising at a different rate, but they ain't.

[Chazar]

13 hours ago, timendres said:

One more reason to not purchase property in Thailand.

Being as anything anti global warming is  being removed ask the Chinese  why they are  buying up condos  like  no one else in Bangkok

[Curt1591]

On 1/6/2020 at 5:28 AM, Gecko123 said:

Climate change is already a significant factor influencing location decisions all over the world.

Yes; that's why the Obamas, high profile climate change advocates, chose an $18 million oceanside estate as their new home.

[habuspasha]

I addressed my post to those who took the science of global warming seriously and was pleased to hear from both of you.   I intended to ignore the rest, but at the risk of signaling assent by my silence I feel bound to respond.

First, I am well aware that Bangkok is sinking.  Its subsidence is due to heavy building on delta silt.  Along with the rising seas it puts Bangkok in a particularly unenviable spot.  A glance at the Climate Central map (https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/8/100.9559/13.0917/?theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=coastal_dem_comparison&elevation_model=coastal_dem&forecast_year=2050&pathway=rcp45&percentile=p50&return_level=return_level_1&slr_model=kopp_2014 shows far deeper penetration of sea water up the Chao Phraya almost up to Ayutthaya than, say, the Pranburi River or any other areas along coastal Thailand.  (I heard today of salt in Bangkok tap water.)  In comparison, the CC map projects flooding in Hua Hin to stop well east of Phet Kassem Road (Route  4).  The question for the rest of Thailand (and, yes, the rest of the world) is where the beach is going to be 10, 30, 50, 100 years from now.

One member points to New Zealand, saying the ocean is rising less than 3 mm a year in the last century.  (It’s actually 1.7 mm.)  However, this measure fails to factor in the gradually increasing rate, time lag from ocean warming to rising, and effects of further glacial melting, especially tipping points.  For an answer to the question “If sea-level rise is only 2–3 millimetres per year, then why worry?” see https://niwa.co.nz/natural-hazards/hazards/sea-levels-and-sea-level-rise.

Another member calls our attention to a theory about solar cycles, employing a measuring tool finely calibrated to the nearest 12,068 years.  It projects the global ecopalypse for 2046 much more confidently than the legions of scientists who are measuring daily tides, temperatures, ice cores, and melting rates.  Evidence is offered in “The nova cycle that took out the Egyptians, the Sumerians, and the Mayans and other established historical civilizations,” despite the fact that Sumerian civilization ended about 3,000 years before the Egyptian which ended about 1,000 years before the Mayan--not exactly simultaneous.

Finally, two other members ask us to reject the scientific consensus in favor of the astute buying prescience of wealthy Chinese tourists and a former American president who has an extra 11 million dollars to spend on a second home.   

[meand]

I live at about 5 meters above sea level in hua hin. I hope it rises i will be down to the water quicker. 

[fruitman]

On 1/6/2020 at 6:20 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps you do not know the real reason why Bangkok is in danger. The city is sinking, not the oceans rising.

Plus the last flooding came from the river, not from the sea.

[Estrada]

7 hours ago, fruitman said:

Plus the last flooding came from the river, not from the sea.

The flooding came from the high river flow coinciding with sea water flowing up the river due to the exceptionally high tide. The sea level has been rising and the land sinking.

[allanos]

For decades, Venice has been known to be sinking, mainly due to subsidence but compounded by groundwater pumping and slight year-on-year rises in sea levels. Recently, however, it has become fashionable for the local authorities there to blame climate change.

 

Climate change is a natural event, occurring over millions of years, yet now it has become a political football, often a scapegoat, and, perhaps worse, a bottomless money-pit.

[IAMHERE]

Don't buy over an aquifer; you'd may have to really worry about sinking. I'd suspect. It is't the rising sea I'd worry about, buy near where water is plentiful.

[rwill]

I was reading some Thai history.  At one point Nakhon Pathom in Ratchaburi was on the coast.  The coastline is now very far away. 

 

 

 

[ianezy0]

On 1/7/2020 at 5:16 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

More likely a tectonic plate, but to say that it is rising at exactly the same rate as the sea is rising is a theory too far.

IMO the islands that are said to be sinking in the Pacific MAY be on a sinking tectonic plate.

 

BTW, only the north island is volcanic, so if it was a volcanic bubble the islands would be rising at a different rate, but they ain't.

That is interesting. I lived in Paraparaumu and worked in Wellington for 3 years and didn’t realise the South Island was not volcanic. Very beautiful though, as is the North. Plenty of shakes in Wellington and Paraparaumu though ???? 

[Brunolem]

On 1/7/2020 at 5:39 AM, Chazar said:

Being as anything anti global warming is  being removed ask the Chinese  why they are  buying up condos  like  no one else in Bangkok

Global warming is a Chinese hoax which was designed to help Chinese citizens to buy condos in Bangkok on the cheap!

 

 

[phantomfiddler]

My friend Archie Mediese told me it,s because of the whaling ban ????

[samuttodd]

It sounds like you are studying geography.   The whole of bkk is down in it.    It is a flood plane, and a delta.

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, allanos said:

 

 

Climate change is a natural event, occurring over millions of years

The only thing missing with the ongoing changes are the "millions".

 

I have seen the climate change during my lifetime, including during the short period of 20 years I have spent in Thailand.

 

If plate tectonic was occuring at the same pace (which is more or less supposed to be the case) we wouldn't be able to stand on our feet...and there wouldn't be any condos for the Chinese to buy, in Bangkok or anywhere else...

[sawadee1947]

On 1/5/2020 at 11:28 PM, Gecko123 said:

Climate change is already a significant factor influencing location decisions all over the world. Sea level rise along coast lines is but one impact. The agricultural sector will be impacted due to drought, more extreme weather events, ground water depletion, and invasive agricultural pests. Thailand's tourism sector, highly dependent on its beaches and coastal cities to attract visitors, will be Impacted. Its fisheries will be impacted due to rising and warming oceans. The cost of living will be impacted due to rising food production costs. Wildfire risk is already heightened - just look at what's going on in Australia. All of the above will put ever more stress on Thailand's social fabric.

 

I anticipate that there will be some in climate change denial who will dismiss and attempt to ridicule the OP's concerns, but in my opinion, the OP would be foolish not to carefully evaluate potential impact of climate change when making a real estate purchase decision.

 

Investment on Maldives Islands I would not recommend...... ????