saengd Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 (edited) Thailand is right on the edge of being labelled a currency manipulator because its current account surplus is approaching USD 20 bill., basically that means the value of Thailand exports is far more than its imports. There's no penalty for being included on this list and if they do join they'll be in good company, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and China are also being monitored! So the question is, for all you currency manipulator theorists, are all those countries really manipulating their currencies also, just like Thailand is supposedly doing, is all of SE Asia a currency manipulator? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-13/u-s-drops-china-currency-manipulator-label-ahead-of-trade-deal?srnd=premium-asia Edited January 13, 2020 by saengd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post tonray Posted January 14, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 14, 2020 It's an absurd notion that a country whose currency is at a 6 year high against the global reserve currency, the US Dollar, can be considered a currency manipulator. It just so happens that Thailand has always been more of an export economy than one designed to thrive on services. They export large amounts of agricultural products and also have the #1 auto manufacturing hub in Souteast Asia, exporting to many other nations. This is one of those anomalies like Body Mass Index where a very fit bodybuilder is considered obese by looking at the chart.....to be ignored. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 I agree but many/most posters don't, let's hope Donald agrees also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Henryford Posted January 14, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 14, 2020 The only currency manipulators are the Western Governments who are determined to devalue their currencies. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post deej Posted January 14, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, saengd said: Your lifestyle is being compromised because of a poor exchange rate so you want to see the Thai economy decimated, really, that's pretty sad! How can that be classed as Sad Smell the coffee???? The Thai Baht is over valued by minuim of 20% in some cases 30% (currencys) and that is Fact???? 2 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, deej said: How can that be classed as Sad Smell the coffee???? The Thai Baht is over valued by minuim of 20% in some cases 30% (currencys) and that is Fact???? By what measure of fact is the Baht overvalued by 20 or 30% and why is it higher (30% not 20%) in some cases? Edited January 14, 2020 by saengd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Can I remind that this is about the potential for currency manipulation and not government, the strength of the Baht is under the control of the independent central bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deej Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, saengd said: By what measure is the Baht overvalued by 20 or 30% and why is it higher in some cases? Your the Opening Poster???? Tell me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, deej said: Your the Opening Poster???? Tell me I didn't claim it is overvalued, you did and you called that fact. Presumably you don't know and presumably you don't know the answer to the opening post either which makes me wonder why you bothered posting at all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Sticky Wicket Posted January 14, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, saengd said: Can I remind that this is about the potential for currency manipulation and not government, the strength of the Baht is under the control of the independent central bank. They have got away with it for a long time. The import duty on US goods is horrific Slap some huge tariffs on Thai exported goods and see how well they sell in the US Edited January 14, 2020 by Sticky Wicket 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Sticky Wicket said: They have got away with it for a long time. The import duty on US goods is horrific So the issue is unfair trade agreements and not currencies, is that what you're saying? If that's the case it sounds like all of ASEAN countries have unfair trade agreements with the US, hmmm, really! Edited January 14, 2020 by saengd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticky Wicket Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, saengd said: So the issue is unfair trade agreements and not currencies, is that what you're saying? In this case I would say so The currency manipulation is a different matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sticky Wicket said: In this case I would say so The currency manipulation is a different matter Sadly however this thread is about currency manipulation so can we park the rest of it and stay with the topic.....! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy cow cm Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 They now if go over the threshold can lose their duty free status wit the USA. Just one of the rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sticky Wicket Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18 minutes ago, Berkshire said: Do you have any idea what you're talking about? If the US wanted Thailand to eliminate the trade imbalance, they'd want the THB to get even stronger to make Thai exports less competitive. Is that what you're asking Trump to do? Every time a TV genius mentions the THB and "manipulation," they demonstrate how little they understand basic economics. No, he could put higher tariffs on, like he was going to do a few months ago. That would mean less sales in the US obviously as people would choose alternatives And yes I do understand economics! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, holy cow cm said: They now if go over the threshold can lose their duty free status wit the USA. Just one of the rules. By threshold I presume you mean a current account surplus of USD 20 Bill.? Singapore has a trade surplus in 2019 of over USD 33 Bill so which rule is it that you're referring to? https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/singapore/trade-balance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yinn Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 hours ago, saengd said: current account surplus is approaching USD 20 bill., basically that means the value of Thailand exports is far more than its imports. Hello saengd maybe I think wrong, you can explain. people like to buy product we make. Popular. And we not need to buy product from other country. Not our problem. Similar, Trump say China must buy more product from USA. But USA product is expensive and low quality, eg Chevrolet, McDonald’s. Should be up to the consumer= free market. Generally speaking IMO USA product low quality and expensive. eg Chevrolet china product low quality and cheap europe product high quality and expensive. Eg Benz, BMW japan product good quality and not expensive. Toyota, Honda 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardColeman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 hours ago, saengd said: basically that means the value of Thailand exports is far more than its imports More interested in what nutcases are buying thai products when the baht is daftly high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holy cow cm Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, saengd said: By threshold I presume you mean a current account surplus of USD 20 Bill.? Singapore has a trade surplus in 2019 of over USD 33 Bill so which rule is it that you're referring to? https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/singapore/trade-balance And Singapore does not hold GSP status with the USA as they graduated to above a developing nation a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmitch Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 So if a country goes onto the US currency manipulation naughty list, what are the repercussions? I have no idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Yinn said: Hello saengd maybe I think wrong, you can explain. people like to buy product we make. Popular. And we not need to buy product from other country. Not our problem. Similar, Trump say China must buy more product from USA. But USA product is expensive and low quality, eg Chevrolet, McDonald’s. Should be up to the consumer= free market. Generally speaking IMO USA product low quality and expensive. eg Chevrolet china product low quality and cheap europe product high quality and expensive. Eg Benz, BMW japan product good quality and not expensive. Toyota, Honda I think that pretty much nails it Yinn! Maybe the answer is that Thailand (or all of ASEN) should stop offering to sell their products to other countries if they're only going to complain later that it's selling them too much......kinda odd really! You'd have thought that if that was the concern the foreign governments might have mandated that those buyers only buy from home markets instead, I wonder why they don't do that....oh wait, it's because they are so much more expensive! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 These are the nutcase! China: US$29.7 billion (11.9% of total Thai exports) United States: $27.9 billion (11.2%) Japan: $24.7 billion (9.9%) Vietnam: $12.8 billion (5.1%) Hong Kong: $12.4 billion (5%) Malaysia: $11.5 billion (4.6%) Australia: $10.7 billion (4.3%) Indonesia: $9.9 billion (4%) Singapore: $9.3 billion (3.7%) Philippines: $7.8 billion (3.1%) Cambodia: $7.6 billion (3%) India: $7.5 billion (3%) Netherlands: $5.2 billion (2.1%) Germany: $5.1 billion (2%) South Korea: $4.8 billion (1.9%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, madmitch said: So if a country goes onto the US currency manipulation naughty list, what are the repercussions? I have no idea! As the OP states, there is no penalty currently other than bad press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, holy cow cm said: And Singapore does not hold GSP status with the USA as they graduated to above a developing nation a long time ago. And Thailand was fast approaching that threshold and would have had GSP status revoked this year anyway, had the US not chosen last year to revoke it early. https://www.just-style.com/news/thailand-loses-us-gsp-preferential-trade-status_id137458.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henryford Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, deej said: How can that be classed as Sad Smell the coffee???? The Thai Baht is over valued by minuim of 20% in some cases 30% (currencys) and that is Fact???? Overvalued against what? the Dollar/Pound/Euro? You don't think that printing trillions of these currencies has affected their value? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Baht Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) If you read the OP's article (which may be behind a paywall for some), I'd say it contains more good news than bad. 1. No major trading partner branded a manipulator, Treasury says. 2. There are ten countries on the U.S.'s monitoring list: China, Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Singapore, Switzerland, Malaysia & Vietnam. Thailand isn't even on the monitoring list. This, to me, gives Thailand some wriggle room to adjust monetary policy and rein in the baht. The worst that can happen is that next year Thailand would be put of the US's monitoring list (which typically serves as a warning) and another year to get off it. Again, this doesn't sound like such bad news to me. Edited January 14, 2020 by Roy Baht 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rimmer Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Some troll posts also flames have been removed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Roy Baht said: If you read the OP's article (which may be behind a paywall for some), I'd say it contains more good news than bad. 1. No major trading partner branded a manipulator, Treasury says. 2. There are ten countries on the U.S.'s monitoring list: China, Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Singapore, Switzerland, Malaysia & Vietnam. Thailand isn't even on the monitoring list. This, to me, gives Thailand some wriggle room to adjust monetary policy and rein in the baht. The worst that can happen is that next year Thailand would be put of the US's monitoring list (which typically serves as a warning) and another year to get off it. Again, this doesn't sound like such bad news to me. Yes I agree, except that when you throw mud some always sticks so for many Thailand will still be a currency manipulator even if they aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Baht Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, saengd said: Yes I agree, except that when you throw mud some always sticks so for many Thailand will still be a currency manipulator even if they aren't. Not on the monitor list. Only if you are branded a currency manipulator (as China was). ADDED: Italy, Ireland, Switzerland are on the monitor list and their reputations don't really seem to have suffered from it. Edited January 14, 2020 by Roy Baht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Roy Baht said: Not on the monitor list. Only if you are branded a currency manipulator (as China was). Any time you mention a country by name, along with the subject of currency manipulation, the inference in many people's minds becomes that the country in question may be manipulating their currency. As it stands at present Thailand is being considered for inclusion on that list, that consideration in itself is damming in the eyes of many people, smoke and fire and all that. Oddly though, China has just been removed from the list on the basis that the recent trade deal will be signed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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