Thailand's tourist arrivals may grow less than 5% this year - industry body

[Guest]

Quick Question ... Why do Expats want MORE tourists?

I say "Let it go to ZERO and return to better days!"

[Melbun]

18 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

One thing for sure, there will be a decrease of expats (according to TVF experts). 

Oh come on. Do you think that's going to cause great fear with the tourism board? Hasn't everyone concluded that expats are not wanted or required.

 

OMG this blog has made that point abundantly clear (ad nauseum).

Look, It's only natural that tourist predictions don't follow a linear upward movement all the time. There are peaks and troughs. As for the strong baht stopping many coming - I think that's baloney. If you really want something, most people will find a way. Ask any smoker, if high cost of ciggies will cause them to cease and desist. NO !!

 

It's just one of those troughs - might be that other countries are more appealing once in a while. After all, going to the same place all the time can get a little stale. Importantly - what you can "purchase" in Thailand - you can "purchase" elsewhere.

[Traubert]

5 hours ago, legend49 said:

 

Tourism entrepreneurs should meanwhile embrace the growing “free independent traveller” (FIT) trend. What is this BS mean, I bet his spin doctor cant explain that.

The people who used to come in tour groups, notably the Chinese, who now book their own accommodation and flights, and make their own way around instead of with a tour guide on a fixed itinerary.

 

That's what the BS means.

[saengd]

1 hour ago, mac1970 said:

Not sure about this if Malaysian's are 3rd biggest group as they mainly use southern border for their holiday visits. 

Not so....here's the 2018 AOT aircraft movement and passenger volumes report, it's a lengthy read but it breaks out all the nationalities by arrival and departure, domestic and international, by airline and by scheduled vs charter.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

[Traubert]

5 hours ago, madmitch said:

Proof, if it's ever needed, that the tourism authorities don't have a clue what they are talking about.

Some European countries have hardly been touched by tourism yet.

Some European countries barely have two cents to scratch their @rse with. Notably, the eastern European countries. Ask the Parisians what they think of the Romanians.

[uli65]

you should better remove your pink glasses

[micmichd]

1 hour ago, bangkokequity said:

Quick Question ... Why do Expats want MORE tourists?

I say "Let it go to ZERO and return to better days!"

Some of us expats have Thai families here, and those families work in the tourism industry. 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, micmichd said:

Some of us expats have Thai families here, and those families work in the tourism industry. 

Yes, of course, you took that literally ... but even if it DID ... news flash ... I have Thai family too, and they work in the oil industry ... there IS a life outside kissing Tourist butt. 

[sambum]

"You say, "Yes", I say, "No"
You say, "Stop" but I say, "Go, go, go"
Oh no You say, "Goodbye", and I say, "Hello, hello, hello"

(Courtesy of Lennon/McCartney)

 

No further comment!

Edited January 16, 2020 by sambum

[ThailandGuy]

It must that TAT is using another model to calculate the number of tourist otherwise how can they be that hard headed every time telling us that the number of people visiting Thailand is increasing every year whereas hotels and beaches are just empty.

[DrTuner]

'Tourism entrepreneurs should meanwhile embrace the growing “free independent traveller” (FIT) trend.'

 

Somehow I have a growing suspicion these "FIT"s are tours remotely handled and paid in China. After they nabbed the blue bus group (can't remember the name, but at the time they were clogging Highway 7), Chinese got clever and started managing it from abroad. Hence the illegal hotels now everywhere.

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, saengd said:

Not so....here's the 2018 AOT aircraft movement and passenger volumes report, it's a lengthy read but it breaks out all the nationalities by arrival and departure, domestic and international, by airline and by scheduled vs charter.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

Malaysians would arrive over land borders, as well as Laotians and Cambodians.

[DrTuner]

5 hours ago, saengd said:

TAT's tourist numbers do not include people arriving or departing via land crossings, this point was clarified a few weeks ago.

I don't think there's any distinction in the raw data they use: https://www.immigration.go.th/immigration_stats

[madmitch]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

Some European countries barely have two cents to scratch their @rse with. Notably, the eastern European countries. Ask the Parisians what they think of the Romanians.

I actually misread this (I was half asleep when I saw this article this morning). I originally thought it referred to Europe as a destination rather than a supplier of tourists.

 

You are right in what you say but the same could of course be said for many Asian countries. I don't think they have given up on Europe altogether as TAT had quite a large presence at the annual Thai festival in Stockholm last year, but have the Europeans given up on Thailand?

[White Christmas13]

6 hours ago, saengd said:

I'm willing to bet the farm that 99% of genuine once or twice a year tourists who show up with visa's and stay for a few weeks, and have money in their pocket, have zero problems with Immigration.

If you are not Thai you must be the biggest Thai apologist I've ever come across. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, White Christmas13 said:

If you are not Thai you must be the biggest Thai apologist I've ever come across. 

When people come under their own free will to another country ... what could the natives possibly have to apologize for?
 

Or, could it be "cognitive dissonance" on your part, because your fantasy does not match reality?  

My advice?  Be an adult. Take responsibility for YOUR choices, and when those fall short ... adopt an action that solves that problem.

 

Example:  "... moved to Thailand but do not like it here."

Hmmmmm .... what might be the solution for that?

 

 

 

 

[Gweiloman]

7 minutes ago, madmitch said:

I actually misread this (I was half asleep when I saw this article this morning). I originally thought it referred to Europe as a destination rather than a supplier of tourists.

 

You are right in what you say but the same could of course be said for many Asian countries. I don't think they have given up on Europe altogether as TAT had quite a large presence at the annual Thai festival in Stockholm last year, but have the Europeans given up on Thailand?

What they mean is that tourist arrivals from Europe have stabilised and not expanding. Europe is what we term in the industry, a mature market, like Japan. China and India (and much of Asia) is considered a growing market. 
 

That’s why most tourism bodies around the world focus their efforts in this part of the world as opposed to America or Europe. 

[Gweiloman]

9 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

If you are not Thai you must be the biggest Thai apologist I've ever come across. 

Unlike the poster you are replying to, I bet 100% of the farm. Over the past couple of weeks, I had more than 10 visitors from my home country coming here for a holiday. Not a single one encountered even the slightest problem with immigration nor did they have to show a return ticket or funds. That’s because they are not trying to stay here on tourist visas. 

[SiSePuede419]

The Guardian: David Attenborough warns that humans have ‘overrun the world’

Come to Thailand, David.

 

According to the Barstool Experts on TVF, it's completely emptied out. ????

[saengd]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

I don't think there's any distinction in the raw data they use: https://www.immigration.go.th/immigration_stats

The AOT report uses passengers airplane passenger numbers and separates international from domestic, Thai from other nationalities..

[DrTuner]

37 minutes ago, saengd said:

The AOT report uses passengers airplane passenger numbers and separates international from domestic, Thai from other nationalities..

This was about TAT. They use immigration arrivals as base data, not AOT.

[mike787]

Looks like the strength of the baht and immigration is better than Trumps wall. 

[saengd]

33 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

This was about TAT. They use immigration arrivals as base data, not AOT.

Yes sure, but the point is that the AOT numbers confirm what TAT is saying.

[Gecko123]

9 hours ago, HHTel said:

Quote

According to figures in the 2019 Thailand Migration Report, there are just 150,707 expats residing in Thailand, of those 72,969 are retirees

We are a very small drop in the ocean.

 

When people argue that short term tourism is more lucrative to a country than permitting expats to live there full time, I think they forget about all of the hidden costs associated with tourism which the host country has to pick up the tab for.

 

When the hidden costs of pollution, congestion, environmental degradation, waste disposal, airport, road, water, and electric grid infrastructure, loss of productivity, higher rates of traffic fatalities, and higher mortality rates, etc., etc. associated with tourism are factored in, the higher revenue stream from tourism becomes far less attractive.

 

I think Thailand is in the process of learning the hard lesson that these hidden costs cannot be ignored.

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by Gecko123

[Parker2100]

On 1/15/2020 at 5:58 PM, RotBenz8888 said:

I know whats gonna increase, thatll be empty hotels.

Yeah, with all the empty hotels and closing bars and restaurants, where did those 37.5 million tourists sleep, eat, and drink?

 

You also have to remember, Chinese and Indians are only allowed to stay 2 weeks.

 

Gone are the days of Western expats renting rooms 30 to 60 days at a stretch.  And of course eating and drinking.

 

 

[Guest]

 13 hours ago, HHTel said:

  Quote

According to figures in the 2019 Thailand Migration Report, there are just 150,707 expats residing in Thailand, of those 72,969 are retirees

 

Wow.  That is an eye opening number.  I had no idea we were such an insignificant percentage of the population of Thailand.  On any given hour of Monday - Friday in the morning, there are more people than that riding the BTS to work.  And all this chest thumping on Thai Visa how Thailand would have to cash in their chips and live in a cave without us.  Amazing (Arrogant) Foreigners!

 

 

[Traubert]

I hadn't seen the 2019 figures. 2018 showed around a 250k figure.

 

Marked decrease but oddly puzzling as the embassy letters only changed this summer. or perhaps it was the beginning of the march of the baht that sent them all home.

 

Unless a fair few went up the wat chimney of course, or joined the PFC.

[saengd]

2 hours ago, bangkokequity said:

 13 hours ago, HHTel said:

  Quote

According to figures in the 2019 Thailand Migration Report, there are just 150,707 expats residing in Thailand, of those 72,969 are retirees

 

Wow.  That is an eye opening number.  I had no idea we were such an insignificant percentage of the population of Thailand.  On any given hour of Monday - Friday in the morning, there are more people than that riding the BTS to work.  And all this chest thumping on Thai Visa how Thailand would have to cash in their chips and live in a cave without us.  Amazing (Arrogant) Foreigners!

 

 

I think the number is misleading because it depends on the definition of expat. From the reports I have seen there are about 4 million foreigners living in Thailand, the vast majority are Asians from neighboring countries. I've read there is about 150K Western expats in Thailand which doesn't include Japanese, one of the most prolific nationalities in Thailand. In a separate report I've read there is over 50k British expats in Thailand, including retirees, exactly what the real number is and what the number includes is uncertain.

 

"A study carried out by the Institute for Population and Social Research at Mahidol University using data from 2010, suggested that there were approximately 440,000 expats living in Thailand, which included 141,000 Chinese, 85,000 Brits, 80,000 Japanese, 46,000 Indians, 40,000 Americans, 24,000 Germans and 23,000 French ...Jul 28, 2019"  news.thaivisa.com › article › the-mystery-of-exactly-how-many-expat...

 

Wiki puts the number at 2.8 mill. including 1.2 mill. Burmese 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Thailand

 

Dougs Republic has been trying to get to the answer for years, his numbers (circa 300k Western expats) are here:

https://www.dougsrepublic.com/thailand/foreigners.php

[Redline]

There are plenty of other reasons ???? just ignore them, that will work 

[ChipButty]

7 hours ago, Parker2100 said:

Yeah, with all the empty hotels and closing bars and restaurants, where did those 37.5 million tourists sleep, eat, and drink?

 

You also have to remember, Chinese and Indians are only allowed to stay 2 weeks.

 

Gone are the days of Western expats renting rooms 30 to 60 days at a stretch.  And of course eating and drinking.

 

 

You are right, them days are long gone we used to get Farang asking for 1 year rent I also think a lot of people lost out buying property thinking they could get a 6 month to 1 year tenant