World Bank lists steps for stalled Thailand to become high-income nation

[webfact]

World Bank lists steps for stalled Thailand to become high-income nation

By THE NATION

 

 

The Thai economy is projected to grow a modest 2.7 per cent this year thanks to recovering private consumption recovers and investment in large public infrastructure projects, the World Bank said in its “Thailand Economic Monitor” report released on Friday (January 17).

 

It said Thai growth slowed to about 2.5 per cent in 2019 from 4.1 per cent in 2018 due to both external and domestic factors.

 

Boosting productivity and reviving private investment will be essential if Thailand is to meet its goal of being a “high-income status” country by 2037, the report said.

 

Global economic growth is forecast to edge up to 2.5 per cent this year as investment and trade gradually regain strength, but risks persist.

 

These include a re-escalation of trade tensions and trade policy uncertainty, a sharper-than-expected downturn in major economies, and financial turmoil in emerging markets and developing economies.

 

“A continued deceleration of economic activity in China, the euro area and the United States could have adverse repercussions across East Asia through weaker demand for exports and the disruptions of global value chains,” said Birgit Hansl, World Bank country manager for Thailand.

 

“Financial investment, commodity and confidence channels could further weaken the global economy and adversely impact Thailand’s exports.”

In 2019, declining exports and weakening domestic demand were the main factors slowing Thailand’s growth.

 

Agricultural exports declined by 7 per cent in the first three quarters of 2019, led by sharp decreases in export volumes for major products such as rice and rubber.

 

Manufacturing exports declined by 6 per cent in the same period, with electronics exports hardest hit. Thailand’s strong currency, which has appreciated by 8.9 per cent since last year – making the baht the strongest it has been in six years – has also impacted foreign tourism and merchandise exports.

 

The government responded swiftly through accommodative monetary policies and a fiscal stimulus package to boost economic growth, the World Bank said.

 

The report recommends that it next consider policies to enhance the effectiveness of the stimuli by focusing on major public investment projects, improving efficiency in public-investment management and providing social protection coverage for vulnerable families.

 

The slowdown highlighted Thailand’s long-standing structural constraints with sluggish investment and low productivity growth.

 

Thai productivity growth has fallen to 1.3 per cent over 2010-2016 from 3.6 per cent over 1999-2007.

 

Private investment has halved, from 30 per cent of GDP in 1997 to 15 per cent in 2018, as foreign direct investments shrank and progress stalled on the Eastern Economic Corridor.

 

The report projects that, if current trends continue, with no significant pickup in investment and productivity growth, Thailand’s average annual growth rate will remain below 3 per cent.

 

To become a high-income country by 2037, it said, Thailand must sustain long-run growth rates above 5 per cent, which would require a productivity growth rate of 3 per cent and an increase in investment of to 40 per cent of GDP.

 

“Boosting productivity will be a critical part of Thailand’s long-term structural reform,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, World Bank senior economist for Thailand. “Increasing productivity, particularly of manufacturing firms, will depend on increasing competition and openness to foreign direct investments, and improving skills.”

 

Sustaining higher productivity growth will require removing constraints that prevent new firms, especially foreign ones, and skilled professionals, from entering the domestic market.

 

These constraints include restrictive laws, particularly in the services sector, implementing the new Competition Act with clear guidelines related to state-owned enterprises and price controls, and developing policies to build the skills and human capital needed for an innovative knowledge-based economy.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30380708

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-01-17

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[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

To become a high-income country by 2037, it said, Thailand must sustain long-run growth rates above 5 per cent, which would require a productivity growth rate of 3 per cent and an increase in investment of to 40 per cent of GDP.

 

“Boosting productivity will be a critical part of Thailand’s long-term structural reform,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, World Bank senior economist for Thailand. “Increasing productivity, particularly of manufacturing firms, will depend on increasing competition and openness to foreign direct investments, and improving skills.”

I have some experience translating the gobbly-gook of WB reports.

 

"Thailand; unless you reform your Education System greatly, you will forever remain a backwards, low-growth country that perpetually envies more advanced places. And, all of your neighbours (beginning with Vietnam) will surpass you over time (including Burma). Period."

 

The key to this report, although they don't say it plainly, is that the growth of productivity requires a well-educated workforce. And, a well-educated workforce requires massive, massive reforms in all levels of the Thai Education system.

 

Step 1. Enter the Headquarters building of the Thai Education Ministry and fire everyone working there. Immediately. Literally everyone. These people created and perpetuate the current hideous, child's brain-killing monster.

 

Step 2. Enter the office of every Provincial Education Ministry office in the land and fire the top ten staffers. Immediately.

 

Yes, this might sound dramatic, but it is a serious proposal. These are the people who created the current, unsustainable, Frankensteinian-working mess and there is no doubt in my mind that they are unable to fix it. Fire them today, literally today.

 

Step 3. A massive audit of how Education System monies are spent to catch all the theft. Fire at will. Fire thousands. Then fire another thousand or two 'pour encourager les autres'.

 

Step 4. Make each Head of School responsible for the grades of their students and unless more than 50% of students pass the standard test each year, fire them. Immediately.

 

Then, begin the real reform of the Education System. With a chain saw.

 

I am completely serious about every word in this post; it is only the blueprint to getting started...

 

 

 

Edited January 17, 2020 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[bangkokfrog]

What a lot of c**p. What does it take for the World Bank, UN, etc to have the guts to tell it like it is. Thailand should already be the highest average income country in the region. The answer is simple: all it needs is a truly democratic government of the people, by the people, and most importantly for the people... as opposed to being there to make those at the top and their cronies super wealthy.

[Chang_paarp]

18 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Step 4. Make each Head of School responsible for the grades of their students and unless more than 50% of students pass the standard test each year, fire them. Immediately.

They all pass currently. How will this improve things? 

Oh wait a minute, do you mean real exams with independent markers?

[kotsak]

Maybe after a few samsara things may change a bit.. emphasis on the "may"..

 

Translation: Not in our lifetime..

[Samui Bodoh]

9 minutes ago, Chang_paarp said:

They all pass currently. How will this improve things? 

Oh wait a minute, do you mean real exams with independent markers?

Yes, real exams. It is such a ridiculous concept in the Kingdom that I should have been more clear.

 

Below is the UNESCO education summary for Thailand (2017/2018), and some of it is shocking. 

 

Note: "...At the end of lower secondary education, only 50% have a minimum proficiency level in reading and only 46% in mathematics..."

 

The future of economic growth in any country will be in having an educated workforce that can learn, adapt, and function without massive supervision; the days of unskilled workers being an integral element in society are coming to an end. Rather, unskilled labour will be a drag on economic potential in a country; the more unskilled labour that exists in a country, the worse off it will be with the proverbial 'lodestone' hanging around its neck.

 

A country, like Thailand, that doesn't have and won't have a workforce capable of learning and advancing will inevitably enter a period of decline. Long-term, massive, soul-sucking decline.

 

Period.

 

According to UNESCO’s 2017/8 Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report, there remain substantial challenges to the quality of education in Thailand:

• 99% complete primary education, but only 85% complete  lower secondary education.
• 50% are not taught in the language spoken at home.
• 12% do not achieve a minimum proficiency level in mathematics at the end of primary.
• 62% of out of school lower secondary school adolescents are girls.
• At the end of lower secondary education, only 50% have a minimum proficiency level in reading and only 46% in mathematics.
• Only 45% of schools have basic sanitation facilities – only 60% have access to basic drinking water.
• 80 of the poorest complete lower secondary education compared to 100 of the richest.

• There are 3.9 million adults unable to read a simple sentence
• A third of students aged 13 to 15 years experienced bullying between 2010 and 2015, and 29% experienced physical violence.

[bluesofa]

1 hour ago, Chang_paarp said:

They all pass currently. How will this improve things? 

Oh wait a minute, do you mean real exams with independent markers?

I thought they had exams with magic markers.

[DrTuner]

1. Get rid of the military

 

That'll go a long way.

[snoop1130]

World Bank cuts Thailand 2020 GDP growth outlook to 2.7%

by Orathai Sriring

 

FILE PHOTO: A girl walks past a Skytrain (Bangkok Mass Transit System) construction site in Bangkok, Thailand May 13, 2018. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - The World Bank on Friday cut its estimate for Thailand’s economic growth to 2.7% this year, but that is faster than last year’s pace as private consumption recovers and investment increases due to the launch of large infrastructure projects.

 

The bank had expected the economy to expand 2.9% this year in its economic report on Thailand in October.

 

It estimated 2019 growth at 2.5%, a five-year low, due to declining exports and weakness in domestic demand, it said in a statement. The economy expanded 4.1% in 2018.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy is heavily reliant on exports, which have been hit by U.S.-Sino trade tension and a strong baht THB=TH, while investment has been sluggish.

 

“The recent growth slowdown has highlighted Thailand’s long-run structural constraints, with slowing investments and low productivity growth,” the bank said.

 

“If current trends continue, with no significant pick-up in investment and productivity growth, Thailand’s average annual growth rate will remain below 3%”.

 

To achieve its vision of being a high-income country by 2037, Thailand will need to sustain long-run growth rates of above 5%, which would require a productivity growth rate of 3% and increase investment to 40% of GDP, the bank said.

 

“Boosting productivity will be a critical part of Thailand’s long-term structural reform,” said Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, World Bank senior economist for Thailand.

 

Thailand’s government has responded swiftly to the growth slowdown through accommodative monetary policies and a fiscal stimulus package to boost economic growth, the bank said.

 

The World Bank recommends the Thai government consider policies to enhance the effectiveness of the stimulus by focusing on implementing major public investment projects and providing social protection coverage for vulnerable families.

 

Separately, Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana told reporters on Friday that the government will soon propose to the cabinet additional measures to spur investment, and will also front-load investment by state-owned firms.

 

The finance ministry is also considering extending an earlier measure aimed at boosting consumption, which is crucial to the economy amid a global economic slowdown, he said.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-01-17

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[rvaviator]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Yes, real exams. It is such a ridiculous concept in the Kingdom that I should have been more clear.

 

Below is the UNESCO education summary for Thailand (2017/2018), and some of it is shocking. 

 

Note: "...At the end of lower secondary education, only 50% have a minimum proficiency level in reading and only 46% in mathematics..."

 

The future of economic growth in any country will be in having an educated workforce that can learn, adapt, and function without massive supervision; the days of unskilled workers being an integral element in society are coming to an end. Rather, unskilled labour will be a drag on economic potential in a country; the more unskilled labour that exists in a country, the worse off it will be with the proverbial 'lodestone' hanging around its neck.

 

A country, like Thailand, that doesn't have and won't have a workforce capable of learning and advancing will inevitably enter a period of decline. Long-term, massive, soul-sucking decline.

 

Period.

 

According to UNESCO’s 2017/8 Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report, there remain substantial challenges to the quality of education in Thailand:

• 99% complete primary education, but only 85% complete  lower secondary education.
• 50% are not taught in the language spoken at home.
• 12% do not achieve a minimum proficiency level in mathematics at the end of primary.
• 62% of out of school lower secondary school adolescents are girls.
• At the end of lower secondary education, only 50% have a minimum proficiency level in reading and only 46% in mathematics.
• Only 45% of schools have basic sanitation facilities – only 60% have access to basic drinking water.
• 80 of the poorest complete lower secondary education compared to 100 of the richest.

• There are 3.9 million adults unable to read a simple sentence
• A third of students aged 13 to 15 years experienced bullying between 2010 and 2015, and 29% experienced physical violence.

Hi,

 

Not disputing any of this - as I have no experience with the details of the Thai education system - I am curious regarding your experience - I assume you are teaching in the Kingdom? 

[heybruce]

"Sustaining higher productivity growth will require removing constraints that prevent new firms, especially foreign ones, and skilled professionals, from entering the domestic market."

 

In other words, stop protecting the oligarchs and oligopolies, and make it easier for foreigners with valuable skills to work in Thailand.

 

"These constraints include restrictive laws, particularly in the services sector, implementing the new Competition Act with clear guidelines related to state-owned enterprises and price controls..."

 

Eliminate the redtape, bureaucracy and corruption in the civil serice.

 

"...and developing policies to build the skills and human capital needed for an innovative knowledge-based economy."

 

Study how the education system is done in successful countries and do what they do.

 

Unfortunately the people in Thailand who are doing well under the current system are not going to allow it to change.

[Bundooman]

15 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

They all pass currently. How will this improve things? 

Oh wait a minute, do you mean real exams with independent markers?

No. They don't all pass. They are given a grade despite failing to achieve the required percentage pass mark.

Until that ceases and until Thailand recognises that, students will only improve if they really have to work hard and earn a true grade.

The exams they are set are not the problem. 

Marking exams are not the problem.

[Oxx]

17 hours ago, webfact said:

an increase in investment of to 40 per cent of GDP

 

Is that 40% calculated before or after the 25% that disappears thanks to endemic corruption?

[Oziex1]

16 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I have some experience translating the gobbly-gook of WB reports.

 

"Thailand; unless you reform your Education System greatly, you will forever remain a backwards, low-growth country that perpetually envies more advanced places. And, all of your neighbours (beginning with Vietnam) will surpass you over time (including Burma). Period."

 

The key to this report, although they don't say it plainly, is that the growth of productivity requires a well-educated workforce. And, a well-educated workforce requires massive, massive reforms in all levels of the Thai Education system.

 

Step 1. Enter the Headquarters building of the Thai Education Ministry and fire everyone working there. Immediately. Literally everyone. These people created and perpetuate the current hideous, child's brain-killing monster.

 

Step 2. Enter the office of every Provincial Education Ministry office in the land and fire the top ten staffers. Immediately.

 

Yes, this might sound dramatic, but it is a serious proposal. These are the people who created the current, unsustainable, Frankensteinian-working mess and there is no doubt in my mind that they are unable to fix it. Fire them today, literally today.

 

Step 3. A massive audit of how Education System monies are spent to catch all the theft. Fire at will. Fire thousands. Then fire another thousand or two 'pour encourager les autres'.

 

Step 4. Make each Head of School responsible for the grades of their students and unless more than 50% of students pass the standard test each year, fire them. Immediately.

 

Then, begin the real reform of the Education System. With a chain saw.

 

I am completely serious about every word in this post; it is only the blueprint to getting started...

 

 

 

Of course you are quite correct and this has been discussed many times on this forum.  Demolishing the house of cards, the system of patronage, Sakdina and the ruling elite. Big big issues, the problem being those at the top feel little or no financial pain. 

[thailand49]

16 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I have some experience translating the gobbly-gook of WB reports.

 

"Thailand; unless you reform your Education System greatly, you will forever remain a backwards, low-growth country that perpetually envies more advanced places. And, all of your neighbours (beginning with Vietnam) will surpass you over time (including Burma). Period."

 

The key to this report, although they don't say it plainly, is that the growth of productivity requires a well-educated workforce. And, a well-educated workforce requires massive, massive reforms in all levels of the Thai Education system.

 

Step 1. Enter the Headquarters building of the Thai Education Ministry and fire everyone working there. Immediately. Literally everyone. These people created and perpetuate the current hideous, child's brain-killing monster.

 

Step 2. Enter the office of every Provincial Education Ministry office in the land and fire the top ten staffers. Immediately.

 

Yes, this might sound dramatic, but it is a serious proposal. These are the people who created the current, unsustainable, Frankensteinian-working mess and there is no doubt in my mind that they are unable to fix it. Fire them today, literally today.

 

Step 3. A massive audit of how Education System monies are spent to catch all the theft. Fire at will. Fire thousands. Then fire another thousand or two 'pour encourager les autres'.

 

Step 4. Make each Head of School responsible for the grades of their students and unless more than 50% of students pass the standard test each year, fire them. Immediately.

 

Then, begin the real reform of the Education System. With a chain saw.

 

I am completely serious about every word in this post; it is only the blueprint to getting started...

 

 

 

You are correct!  but sadly it will never happen because keeping the Thai people " barefoot and pregnant provides a strong hold on them!  The education report has been out there for a long long time fixing it would mean those in power slowly will not the care more about themselves than their own people!  But of course Thai don't know that.

[jlwilliamsjr18]

I can't read these recommendations of the world bank. Setting a goal to become a high income nation is ludicrous. Tourism is rape and pillage, infrastructure is lacking, economic and education equity is lopsided, justice is curbed and there is need to reevaluate the purpose of the military and police. 

[miamiman123]

Education is the answer huh? 
take a long good look at the USA education system...then explain how the USA got there

[fforest1]

Lets not forget high income nations have very high consumer prices....

 

Why does no one on this forum EVER talk about moving to Switzerland or Singapore or Dubai ?? One big reason they are hella expensive.....

 

They have said over and over and over They want Thailand to move past the middle income trap...In other words they WANT THAILAND TO BE A EXPENSIVE PLACE....

Edited January 18, 2020 by fforest1

[overherebc]

17 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

They all pass currently. How will this improve things? 

Oh wait a minute, do you mean real exams with independent markers?

Ah    ointment fly or something.

[GeorgeCross]

it's all mute - within 20 years there will be no need for a workforce, AI and robots will do 80% of the work. the only industry thailand will be in will be renting cheap warehouse space for the bots to "work" in.

 

it's done for thailand they are way way too late. without their own original products and brands they are nothing.

 

back to the rice fields peoples.

 

 

[GeorgeCross]

13 minutes ago, fforest1 said:

Lets not forget high income nations have very high consumer prices....

 

Why does no one on this forum EVER talk about moving to Switzerland or Singapore or Dubai ?? One big reason they are hella expensive.....

 

They have said over and over and over They want Thailand to move past the middle income trap...In other words they WANT THAILAND TO BE A EXPENSIVE PLACE....

 

those places also pay very high wages 

 

 

[chilli42]

I am not convinced that anyone in a position to do something about the issues even cares.  Keep the population poorly educated and compliant.  At the same time filling their offshore bank accounts with money skimmed of the top of everything.

[kiwikeith]

17 hours ago, bangkokfrog said:

What a lot of c**p. What does it take for the World Bank, UN, etc to have the guts to tell it like it is. Thailand should already be the highest average income country in the region. The answer is simple: all it needs is a truly democratic government of the people, by the people, and most importantly for the people... as opposed to being there to make those at the top and their cronies super wealthy.

The strong Bht is causing manufacturing export problems, fisher and Pykel who make fridges and washing machines moved here a few years ago from NZ they wont be happy, they are moving more manufacturing towards China and India now.

I have heard that other companies are going to move shop.

The employment situation is getting worse here, there are no jobs.

A friend of ours in civil engineering here said, a crash is on the way, there is to much on tick.

To many cars and houses on the never never are going to be repossessed, she said Thailand will have a serious housing and economic crash within 12 months.

Tourism is way down from what people are saying with some places dead.

The Bht is a major problem, most people that I have known for years that live here are moving to Vietnam, Philippines and Cambodia.

Nearly every expat I talk to say the place has gone mad, and the are very concerned about all the visa rubbish.

 

So A wake up call Thailand , the government is not popular with the Thai people . 

[BestB]

How does Thailand improve productivity when in general people do not want to work but go to work and do as little as possible or do nothing at all.

 

Yes could blame education but they all managed to figure out how to use Facebook just unable to figure out how to use google for simple self education 

[Tarteso]

Fake news... and better, begin to give a higher-incomes to your elders or retires, and changue yours education system. This is the way... Thailand.

 

this is a Big Nation and nice place geografically,  BUT....

Edited January 18, 2020 by Tarteso

[FritsSikkink]

18 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I have some experience translating the gobbly-gook of WB reports.

 

"Thailand; unless you reform your Education System greatly, you will forever remain a backwards, low-growth country that perpetually envies more advanced places. And, all of your neighbours (beginning with Vietnam) will surpass you over time (including Burma). Period."

 

The key to this report, although they don't say it plainly, is that the growth of productivity requires a well-educated workforce. And, a well-educated workforce requires massive, massive reforms in all levels of the Thai Education system.

 

Step 1. Enter the Headquarters building of the Thai Education Ministry and fire everyone working there. Immediately. Literally everyone. These people created and perpetuate the current hideous, child's brain-killing monster.

 

Step 2. Enter the office of every Provincial Education Ministry office in the land and fire the top ten staffers. Immediately.

 

Yes, this might sound dramatic, but it is a serious proposal. These are the people who created the current, unsustainable, Frankensteinian-working mess and there is no doubt in my mind that they are unable to fix it. Fire them today, literally today.

 

 

What a load of BS, there are good schools in Thailand too. Did you forget to read the part that there is growth in the economy

Edited January 18, 2020 by FritsSikkink

[Isaan sailor]

Chill down the China connection.  The weekly Yuan/USD inversion on the Baht is killing Thailand’s reputation as a safe haven for investment.

[GalaxyMan]

18 hours ago, bangkokfrog said:

The answer is simple: all it needs is a truly democratic government of the people, by the people, and most importantly for the people... as opposed to being there to make those at the top and their cronies super wealthy.

Even if you were able to have those wishes come true, it wouldn't make a bit of difference unless you can also expunge the insatiable greed of the Thai people who will walk over anyone, cheat anyone, to get just one more baht for themselves -- generally speaking. There are exceptions.

It's a lot like the Russians and the Chinese. They lived for centuries as slaves, literally and figuratively, of the ruling elite, whatever they happened to call themselves. Suddenly, overnight, they're free. They have no idea how to be free. The only thing they understand is the dog-eat-dog mentality required to survive as a slave. They were allowed zero contact with the outside world, therefore, when they were finally released into that outside world, they had and still have no clue about how to behave.

 

Finally freeing the Thai people after centuries of virtual slavery will not change the mentality that that slavery inculcates in the enslaved. Only time and education will do that. Just look at the USSA; 150 years after the so-called abolition of slavery, the same problems persist.

 

You can lead the horse to water, making him drink is an entirely different matter.

[GalaxyMan]

1 hour ago, thailand49 said:

You are correct!  but sadly it will never happen because keeping the Thai people " barefoot and pregnant provides a strong hold on them!  The education report has been out there for a long long time fixing it would mean those in power slowly will not the care more about themselves than their own people!  But of course Thai don't know that.

Very similar to the stranglehold the Catholic church had over Europe in the Dark Ages (death penalty for anyone but clergy knowing how to read and/or write) and still why they're against birth control. Having large families leaves you only time to try to keep them fed, not educated, therefore not capable or interested in challenging the status quo. It's a vicious circle.

[fforest1]

58 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

those places also pay very high wages 

 

 

So what about retirees on a fixed pension?