Those 39 Million Tourists

[saengd]

Everyone here seems to be in denial about TAT's tourist numbers so I did some quick research using airline passenger information, the results are as follows. I posted this in reply to an existing thread but I thought it deserved a wider audience so that more posters could better understand hence it has a thread of it own:

 

There are eleven international airports in Thailand, AOT operates the top six. Using the AOT traffic report for 2018 (below):

 

In 2018 there were 81.1 million international passenger movements (p1), broadly split between embarked and disembarked so figure 40.5 million arrived - this includes scheduled, charter and private flights. 

 

Using traffic at just the top six major airports: Of the 81.5 mill, about 7% were transit passengers (p67), figure net arrivals was 37.7 mill.

 

BUT... those figures do not consider international passengers arriving at:

 

U-tapao: receives 2.1 million passengers per year (nation 17 Feb 2018) but there's no split between international, scheduled and charter flights, a majority of Russian charters come via U-tapao.

 

Koh Samui: receives about 1.7 million arrivals by air but again there is no split between domestic and international, scheduled and charter.

 

Krabi: receives about 1 million passengers per year but no split between domestic and international.

 

Surat Thani: receives about 2 million passengers per year, no split available.

 

Udon: recieves around 2.5 million passengers per year but no split available,

 

Thai’s travelling overseas in 2018 was 8.79 million (Nation 5 July 2018), ergo, net international arrivals by air at the six largest airports was 37.7 million minus 8.79 million or a minimum confirmed airline passenger arrivals of 28.91 million. 

 

TAT claims 39 million tourists in 2018, the above leaves 10 million tourists unaccounted for, many from airports not listed which amount to a further 9 million passengers....and this is without considering tourists arriving via any of the 20 border crossing points.

 

Conclusion: 

 

TAT's figures are easily achievable using airline data statistics alone.

 

https://www.airportthai.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Annual-Airport-2018.pdf

https://www.nationthailand.com/Tourism/30349409

https://www.nationthailand.com/national/30339117

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_Thailand

https://www.caat.or.th/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/กระบี่2016.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surat_Thani_International_Airport

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Udon_Thani_International_Airport

[Yinn]

18 minutes ago, saengd said:

TAT's figures are easily achievable using airline data statistics alone.

Thankyou tell the true story. With links.

 

Really annoying to listen every time a story about tourism amount. Many members alaways start make the story “thailand have no tourist, all the tourist now go Vietnam, thailand have no tourism because the cheat all the tourist” etc etc etc etc.

Maybe they blind people. Tourist everywhere, everyday, every week, every year. So many.

 

So boring. And they believe it. I believe the bar they go is empty now. Most the tourist Chinese, India, Russia not want to go to bar for lonely men. They come with family and go tour all day, beach, shopping, on the bus etc. 1000+ bus

 

This thread will be the same. 10 page of “TAT lie, tourist not like Thailand, tourist not like Thailand because wine expensive” etc etc. 

 

Q. How this people know? A. They not know. Just repeat same lie again and again. They want thai tourism to fail. Imagine it so much. 

But thailand tourism is successful, tourist enjoy come to Thailand. 

 

Thankyou.

will be funny thread.

 

 

 

[saengd]

Threads that try to disprove popular conspiracy or bias theories tend to be quite short because there's nothing left to bitch and moan about until a new subject comes up. My worry is that having earlier disproved many of the Baht manipulation theories and now moving on to this, one day the TVF hit squad will come along and zap  me because threads like these are bad for business. ????

Edited January 19, 2020 by saengd

[Skallywag]

More people travel internationally every year.  Population of the world increases every year.  Logical that more people visit Thailand every year.

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization.  1.4 Billion tourists travelled internationally in 2018.

So Thailand's 39 million is 2% of total international travellers

Edited January 19, 2020 by Skallywag

[pgrahmm]

Just wait until the we'll build now, pay us later trains from China are up and running....A pipeline flowing directly in....

Soon to follow will be Chinese industrial complexes to circumvent international trade agreements.....

Then the unofficial Chinese annexation of Thailand will be in full swing.....

The country, cultures, and conditions will be unrecognizable in the not to far future.....

They're being willingly led right down that path now.....

[ezzra]

I think the TAT can use someone like the OP working for them...

[saengd]

Just now, ezzra said:

I think the TAT can use someone like the OP working for them...

I personally like to deal on the basis of fact rather than criticise or deny everything and simply follow the herd who want to slag off everything and everyone that is Thailand, how you and others do behave is of course your choice!

[bkk6060]

Good investigative info. Thanks.

Haters will always hate and claim everything is false.

Just a bunch of insecure mostly unsuccessful people makes them somehow feel better to disparage most anyone and anything Thailand.

A sad lot they are.

[Roy Baht]

59 minutes ago, saengd said:

Threads that try to disprove popular conspiracy or bias theories tend to be quite short because there's nothing left to bitch and moan about until a new subject comes up. My worry is that having earlier disproved many of the Baht manipulation theories and now moving on to this, one day the TVF hit squad will come along and zap  me because threads like these are bad for business.

The other biased theory I want squashed (and I think you said you crunched the numbers before?) is this insanely exaggerated idea that some Westerner expats hold re: how much their presence in Thailand contributes to the local economy. I'm pretty sure that compared to the mass tourism, the contribution made by Western expats is a drop in the bucket.

[Old Croc]

2 minutes ago, Roy Baht said:

The other biased theory I want squashed (and I think you said you crunched the numbers before?) is this insanely exaggerated idea that some Westerner expats hold re: how much their presence in Thailand contributes to the local economy. I'm pretty sure that compared to the mass tourism, the contribution made by Western expats is a drop in the bucket.

Even when they're overstayed by years, selling fake watches or petty thieves, many here still claim they greatly contribute to the local economy!

[cyril sneer]

i've not really questioned the number of tourists coming in, more the quality of tourist

 

the jaidee white man who splashes the cash is now being replaced by indian grooming gangs, russian mobsters and swarms of chinese destroying thailand's landscape in every way possible

[Old Croc]

2 minutes ago, cyril sneer said:

i've not really questioned the number of tourists coming in, more the quality of tourist

 

the jaidee white man who splashes the cash is now being replaced by indian grooming gangs, russian mobsters and swarms of chinese destroying thailand's landscape in every way possible

Are they forcing the English thugs, Australian Bikies and US pedos out?

[saengd]

24 minutes ago, cyril sneer said:

i've not really questioned the number of tourists coming in, more the quality of tourist

 

the jaidee white man who splashes the cash is now being replaced by indian grooming gangs, russian mobsters and swarms of chinese destroying thailand's landscape in every way possible

From what I've read and seen over the years the average Western white man seems to think he is worth at least ten Indians, five Russians or fourteen Chinese in terms of spending power, manners & social etiquette and desirability to the country......wot a larf eh! 

[saengd]

32 minutes ago, Roy Baht said:

The other biased theory I want squashed (and I think you said you crunched the numbers before?) is this insanely exaggerated idea that some Westerner expats hold re: how much their presence in Thailand contributes to the local economy. I'm pretty sure that compared to the mass tourism, the contribution made by Western expats is a drop in the bucket.

A new thread topic, coming to a forum near you, soon. ????

[saengd]

1 hour ago, Old Croc said:

Even when they're overstayed by years, selling fake watches or petty thieves, many here still claim they greatly contribute to the local economy!

And so they do, there would be no wife beater tee shirt industry without them and Chang sales would drop like a stone.

[NE1]

Just looking at newspaper and internet reports , I don't doubt the figures , I just wonder where they all stay ?

As the hoteliers are saying there business is down xx %.  empty condos galore throughout the land.

Just asking.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, NE1 said:

Just looking at newspaper and internet reports , I don't doubt the figures , I just wonder where they all stay ?

As the hoteliers are saying there business is down xx %.  empty condos galore throughout the land.

Just asking.

I live 20 kms outside Chiang Mai in an area that a few years ago was 80% Thai and 20% farang. Today this area is 95% Chinese and 5% farang, most rent their houses either directly or through a common agent, a few via Air whateverit'scalled, some for a few days, some for one month, some for three and many for up to a year - our next door neighbors are Chinese and even my wife is now fluent in Mandarin. I imagine that what I see around me is being replicated in many parts of the country.

[Yinn]

5 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Good investigative info. Thanks.

Haters will always hate and claim everything is false.

Just a bunch of insecure mostly unsuccessful people makes them somehow feel better to disparage most anyone and anything Thailand.

A sad lot they are.

Yes. Unsuccessful people. 

 

 

[Mavideol]

5 hours ago, saengd said:

I personally like to deal on the basis of fact rather than criticise or deny everything and simply follow the herd who want to slag off everything and everyone that is Thailand, how you and others do behave is of course your choice!

 based on your facts, please tell us how many out of the "and disembarked so figure 40.5 million arrived" were in transit

[Don Mega]

of those 39 million how many are not tourists ?

[Enoon]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Tourism_rankings

[saengd]

21 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

 based on your facts, please tell us how many out of the "and disembarked so figure 40.5 million arrived" were in transit

As the OP says:

 

Using traffic at just the top six major airports: Of the 81.5 mill, about 7% were transit passengers (p67), figure net arrivals was 37.7 mill.

[Bruno123]

19 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

of those 39 million how many are not tourists ?

 

I was just about to pose that question.....

 

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics"

 

 

[saengd]

28 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

of those 39 million how many are not tourists ?

The terms "tourist" and "arriving foreign passenger" are being used interchangeably in this exercise since it's highly unlikely any data regarding purpose of the visit is likely to be suspect.

 

But since the analysis doesn't successfully quantify all the arriving international passengers in Thailand and there are some ten million yet to be classified, it is likely that more than 39 million will counted in the final totals, especially if land crossings are included, substantially more in fact.

Edited January 19, 2020 by saengd

[saengd]

5 minutes ago, Bruno123 said:

 

I was just about to pose that question.....

 

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics"

 

 

You could always try coming up with a supportable evidence based alternative of your own, we'll listen to what your numbers are and how you arrive at them..

[ChaiyaTH]

I wonder how frequently the OP actually flies around Thailand and knows people all over the country in Tourism business, as the OP is the one in denial here.
It got nothing to do with being a 'hater' either, I would love to see tourism thriving as it once did. 

The numbers are fake as they are not all tourists, neither are they unique arrivals. One wonders why you are so naive and motivated to protect TAT their lies and nonsense. Perhaps, as you are so sure of 'us' being wrong, you could tell where all these 39M tourists are staying, and how that explains heavy declines in all cities for hotels. (The small percentage that now checks in airbnb's does certainly not justify that decline alone).

I do not doubt the 39M arrival figure is real, it is just that they are not unique and real tourists. That is the point. 
That aside, many of the recent years growth tourist numbers are kind of <deleted>ty, as these are 3-5 day holidaying Chinese on dollar tours (compared to smaller numbers of tourists from western countries who used to stay 1-2 months). I think reality is much closer to 20-25M in comparable realistic tourism figures. 

That said, the 39M figure is not that special either, Amsterdam does similar.

Edited January 19, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[gearbox]

5 hours ago, Roy Baht said:

The other biased theory I want squashed (and I think you said you crunched the numbers before?) is this insanely exaggerated idea that some Westerner expats hold re: how much their presence in Thailand contributes to the local economy. I'm pretty sure that compared to the mass tourism, the contribution made by Western expats is a drop in the bucket.

They seem to contribute a lot...to the point where they have no money left for visas ???? Just look at the number of threads discussing the financial requirements for visas.

[ChaiyaTH]

4 minutes ago, gearbox said:

They seem to contribute a lot...to the point where they have no money left for visas ???? Just look at the number of threads discussing the financial requirements for visas.

A visa is inexpensive, it are the requirements being out of touch with reality making it difficult to obtain them. This got nothing to do with monthly spending power.
If you have a social welfare plan but no big savings, you could easily spend 50K + a month but being unable to deposit 800K or proving 65K.

Any country where you spend 3 times the minimum wage, would be happy to host you. Let alone 5 times up.

Edited January 19, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[ExpatOilWorker]

Tourist arrival numbers are rock solid as they are just compiled from immigration data. 

TAT is rightly so reporting close to 39 million visitors, but the debate is whether those visitors are all tourist and how much they spend.

 

Do anybody honestly believe the average TOURIST spend as below?

 

Cambodia: 5,669 baht/day

Laos: 5,382 baht/day

Myanmar: 5,977 baht/day

 

Germany: 3,611 baht/day

Sweden: 4,640 baht/day

UK: 4,287 baht/day

 

Crazy Rich Asian all right.

Tourist Spending by Nationality.xlsx

Edited January 19, 2020 by ExpatOilWorker

[ChaiyaTH]

2 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Cambodia: 5,669 baht/day

Laos: 5,382 baht/day

Myanmar: 5,977 baht/day

What are those? The people crossing the border once per quarter to go shopping at Makro and return the same day? Great tourists LOL.

Edited January 19, 2020 by ChaiyaTH