Value of food exports to increase 5.4% this year

[snoop1130]

Value of food exports to increase 5.4% this year

 

 

The National Food Institute forecasts that the value of food exports this year will be US$34.9 billion (Bt1.05 trillion), up 5.4 per cent year on year, according to its president Anong Paijitprapapon.

 

However, the value of exports will contract 0.3 per cent to Bt1.02 trillion if the baht rises to 29.30 per US dollar.

 

The export value is expected to expand 3.5 per cent to Bt1.06 trillion if the baht holds steady at 30.40 per dollar.

 

One positive factor helping food exports this year is the global economic recovery after tensions over a US-China trade war eased. 

 

The Olympic Games in Japan will also spark demand for more food.

 

The negative factors that could affect the food industry are the drought and the possible hike in production and logistics costs if energy prices rise following an escalation in the US-Iran conflict.

 

Food exports last year dropped 3.8 per cent to $33.1 billion, or Bt1.025 trillion, while food imports amounted to Bt401.3 billion, down 0.1 per cent.

 

Among items suffering a decline in export value are rice, which fell 22 per cent, sugar 13.7 per cent, canned tuna 6 per cent, shrimps 9.2 per cent, and pineapples 15.7 per cent. However, the value of chicken exports increased 0.8 per cent, condiments 4 per cent, coconuts 3.8 per cent and ready-to-eat meals 4.6 per cent.

 

The institute blames the drop in the value of food exports on the global economic situation, the strengthening baht and declining world food prices. The global food trade last year amounted to $1.3 trillion, down 0.6 per cent. Thailand’s food exports accounted for 2.51 per cent of the world food trade.

 

Last year, China was Thailand’s biggest food importer, replacing the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Vietnam) bloc. Exports to China rose 34 per cent to Bt150.75 billion, accounting for 14.7 per cent of Thailand’s total food exports.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30380888

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-01-21

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[trainman34014]

Have TAT taken over the National Food Institute now as well ?

[NE1]

No , but they are the " numbers magicians " people turn to when they need to baffle the population.

[legend49]

Dreamers.

[RichardColeman]

12 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Among items suffering a decline in export value are rice, which fell 22 per cent, sugar 13.7 per cent, canned tuna 6 per cent, shrimps 9.2 per cent, and pineapples 15.7 per cent.

 

However, the value of chicken exports increased 0.8 per cent, condiments 4 per cent, coconuts 3.8 per cent and ready-to-eat meals 4.6 per cent.

I'm confused as to exactly how a 0.8% & 3.8% increase in chicken and coconuts can cover a 22% loss in rice, 14% loss in sugar, 16% in pineapple and near 10% in shrimps ? I'd say Thais seem to be exporting fresh air - but that cannot be true either

[rickudon]

So food exports last year declined by 3.8%, but will rise by 5.4% this year ........ Please get real! The only way that will happen is if Thailand sells half it's pork to China (to make up for their deficit due to ASF). Meanwhile Thais will have to find protein elsewhere! I assume also they are expecting a 'perfect' wet season and no drought issues......

[ChrisY1]

Food exports increase.....however, on the downside, food and other imports, which are now considerably cheaper to bring into the country, continue rising.

Rarely if ever, has there been decreases in retail prices. But of course, the big retailers are all members of the elitist club.

[unamazedloso]

Value or Cost? They both mean entirely different things. 

The costs are up because of baht manipulation that the US stated they had broken 2 of 3 laws already that would lead to the US to intervene so until action is taken exports costs and value based on price alone goes up but the value to thailand is actually the opposite becauae its a lesser value to the exporting market. 

More exagerated lies to cover the reality.. Fake news..

[Traubert]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

I'm confused as to exactly how a 0.8% & 3.8% increase in chicken and coconuts can cover a 22% loss in rice, 14% loss in sugar, 16% in pineapple and near 10% in shrimps ? I'd say Thais seem to be exporting fresh air - but that cannot be true either

The price differentials. Also the base figures from which the percentages are calculated.

[Traubert]

3 hours ago, rickudon said:

So food exports last year declined by 3.8%, but will rise by 5.4% this year ........ Please get real! The only way that will happen is if Thailand sells half it's pork to China (to make up for their deficit due to ASF). Meanwhile Thais will have to find protein elsewhere! I assume also they are expecting a 'perfect' wet season and no drought issues......

'Exports to China rose 34 per cent to Bt150.75 billion, accounting for 14.7 per cent of Thailand’s total food exports.'

 

Even half a similar rise this year will cover it.

[mikebell]

Lies, damn lies and statistics from a bunch of smug know-it-alls on yet another committee.

[Orton Rd]

The must have gotten Dianne Abbott to do the sums on her fingers

[Inn Between]

It must be nice to have it both ways.  I've always had the impression that when a county's currency is as strong as Thailand's, exports drop off, yet Thailand will see an increase.

 

Everybody wins in Thailand. The "haves" get the strong baht they want, exports are increasing to make a better economy for all, and TAT will soon announce that the number of tourists will be larger and their spending greater then ever before. All this should help keep the strength of the baht increasing with only positive effects for everyone. I guess Thailand truly is amazing. 

[Srikcir]

On 1/22/2020 at 12:30 PM, unamazedloso said:

Value or Cost? They both mean entirely different things. 

They are synonymous when it comes to Volume.

Value can rise due to an appreciating baht. That makes the import cost higher.

An importer might chose to reduce the volume purchased to offset higher import costs and value if unwilling to pass the higher cost/value to the downstream wholesalers and retailers. That business strategy in turn creates a higher supply in the Thai domestic market (unless surplus product is simply destroyed) and depresses the domestic prices. Good for the consumer but bad for the farmers.

When this situation occurs (as it has often during Prayut's regime), the Thai government's solution is to prop up farmer income with subsidies and price controls. And not to look at the larger issues pressuring higher export cost/value.