The shadow of SARS: China learned the hard way how to handle an epidemic

[snoop1130]

The shadow of SARS: China learned the hard way how to handle an epidemic

By David Stanway

 

FILE PHOTO: A nurse wearing protective gear walks outside a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Clinic (SARS) in suburban Toronto, April 24, 2003. REUTERS/Mike Cassese/File Photo

 

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - The emergence of a new virus in central China has brought back painful memories of another virulent respiratory disease that wreaked worldwide havoc and left the country’s health authorities struggling to rebuild public trust.

 

But global health experts said China has come a long way since 2003, when it was accused of trying to cover up a major outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), a previously unknown virus believed to have emerged from the wet markets of Guangdong province before spreading into major cities. As many as 774 people died in an epidemic that reached nearly 30 countries.

 

Now, nearly 17 years later, government officials insist they have learned from past mistakes as they try to contain the latest deadly viral pneumonia strain, which has infected 440 people, mostly in Wuhan city, and killed nine since it was first identified at the end of last month.

 

Liu Heng, an adviser to China’s cabinet said it took the country about four or five months to announce the SARS outbreak to the public, and this time it had taken less than a month.

 

“We are doing much better now... We are paying greater attention to preventing the epidemic,” he told reporters.

 

Li Bin, vice minister at the National Health Commission, told reporters on Wednesday that since 2003, China had established comprehensive new procedures to handle major health threats.

 

“With relatively complete prevention and control systems for sudden and infectious diseases in place since SARS ... and with the support of the broad masses of the public, we are confident of victory,” he said.

 

A key factor watched by experts both at home and overseas has been the rapid disclosure of information about the genetic structure of the virus and the way it has spread through the population.

 

Li said Beijing had learned from its experiences with SARS and was now sharing all relevant data with international stakeholders, including the World Health Organization (WHO).

 

“The speed with which this virus has been identified is testament to changes in public health in China since SARS and strong global coordination through the WHO,” said Jeremy Farrar, a British infectious diseases specialist who also worked on combating SARS.

 

BETTER INFRASTRUCTURE

 

Experts say the failures of SARS were caused by an under-resourced and overcentralised health system with little experience of infectious diseases and no information disclosure mechanisms. Local governments were also reluctant to take responsibility for the rapid spread of infections.

 

Beijing has since established the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention that hooks up hospitals and clinics nationwide and reports outbreaks in real time. It has also set up specific mechanisms for new pneumonia strains.

 

“China... has developed excellent disease surveillance systems since SARS, including real-time emergency department surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections, so this will help with rapid identification of new cases,” said Raina MacIntyre, head of the biosecurity research programme at the Kirby Institute in Sydney.

 

Vice-minister Li said China’s health infrastructure was also now better able to cope, with the country ready to deploy several “back-up” hospitals that could be put into action should the number of infected people spike further.

 

DISTRUST DIES HARD

 

The silence on the part of authorities during the early stages of SARS helped create a rumor mill that sparked panic in several major cities and brought the economy to a standstill. One estimate suggested China’s economy slowed by around 1-2 percentage points in 2003 as a result of SARS.

 

This time, officials have been warned they face public ignominy if they cover up any infections, and the message throughout state media has been about the need for greater transparency. Communist Party-backed tabloid Global Times said on Wednesday that “concealment would be a serious blow to the government’s credibility and might trigger greater social panic”.

 

President Xi Jinping has vowed to curb the spread of the virus, which has erupted just before the nation begins its biggest holiday this week, the Lunar New Year, when hundreds of millions people travel.

 

Nevertheless, some people said Chinese officials are cracking down on those who spread news about the disease online.

 

Social media is still awash with cover-up claims, and some doubts are still being expressed about the accuracy and timeliness of China’s data.

 

“We can only judge the information we are being provided and have no way to determine if any information is not being disclosed,” said MacIntyre.

 

And the big test of lessons learned could be still to come, when new year travel could create countless new vectors for the potential transmission of the virus.

 

Adam Kamradt-Scott, an infectious diseases expert at the Centre for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney, said China has “come a long way” since the outbreak of SARS.

 

“I’m not sure that we could expect more of them at this stage in the outbreak, particularly when they are understandably focused on responding to the outbreak and trying to contain it ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations,” he said.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-01-22

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[Mavideol]

4 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

Liu Heng, an adviser to China’s cabinet said it took the country about four or five months to announce the SARS outbreak to the public, and this time it had taken less than a month.

 

“We are doing much better now... We are paying greater attention to preventing the epidemic,” he told reporters.

555 .... and they are doing much better in preventing the epidemic, that's why every day the death numbers are going up.... but they are doing much better

[Mavideol]

7 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

“We can only judge the information we are being provided and have no way to determine if any information is not being disclosed,” said MacIntyre.

as usual Chinese gov is covering up, nobody is allowed to verify the information received... but as Liu Heng, an adviser to China’s cabinet said,  they are doing much better

[TheDark]

24 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

555 .... and they are doing much better in preventing the epidemic, that's why every day the death numbers are going up.... but they are doing much better

Well, they are doing better. China, nor any other country can't start yelling "Killer virus coming" every time someone has a flu. 

 

When China told the world, there was about 10 known cases. Quite low number to be reported. 

 

It's good to understand proportions. Each day about 45.000 people die in China. 

[anterian]

As China is a totalitarian state could they not cancel or seriously restrict the annual CNY migration.

[Traubert]

46 minutes ago, TheDark said:

Well, they are doing better. China, nor any other country can't start yelling "Killer virus coming" every time someone has a flu. 

 

When China told the world, there was about 10 known cases. Quite low number to be reported. 

 

It's good to understand proportions. Each day about 45.000 people die in China. 

“I’m not sure that we could expect more of them at this stage in the outbreak, " said an expert in bio-security from a Sydney university.

 

' as usual Chinese gov is covering up, ' says an elderly expat keyboard warrior on TVF.

 

Who's your money on?

[Traubert]

7 minutes ago, anterian said:

As China is a totalitarian state could they not cancel or seriously restrict the annual CNY migration.

Its authoritarian actually.

 

They have been advised that there's no need to restrict travel at this stage by the World Health Organisation.

[Kelsall]

Sounds like they're not handling this well at all.  The aftermath of CNY here in Thailand will reveal how well China is handling this.

 

"The Communist Party’s affirmation the spread of the virus was under control followed officials in Japan, Thailand, and South Korea all confirming infections".

 

https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/01/20/china-says-no-need-to-panic-as-deadly-virus-goes-international/

[mike787]

I hope Thailand can avoid Coronavirus.  IF the Chinese stop coming here, TAT will hurt.

[Traubert]

Here's the latest from tonights press conference in China:

 

473 people have been detected with the virus in 13 provinces.

 

Death toll stands at 9 all in Hubei, all either elderly or with other pre-existing conditions including liver disease in one case, and multiple organ damage in another.

 

They are almost sure that the root cause is down to illegal wild animals sold in the South China Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan.

 

Treatment will be covered by national health insurance which means no-one will have to pay the hospital.

 

Infections have been detected in Thailand, Japan, S Korea, USA and Taiwan.

 

On a personal note, a friend in Philippines is telling me that they have found a suspected case there. This is not official.

 

This was reported an hour ago.

 

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by Traubert

[Kelsall]

2 hours ago, Traubert said:

Its authoritarian actually.

 

They have been advised that there's no need to restrict travel at this stage by the World Health Organisation.

link?

[rabas]

2 hours ago, Traubert said:

Here's the latest from tonights press conference in China:

 

473 people have been detected with the virus in 13 provinces.

 

Death toll stands at 9 all in Hubei, all either elderly or with other pre-existing conditions including liver disease in one case, and multiple organ damage in another.

 

They are almost sure that the root cause is down to illegal wild animals sold in the South China Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan.

 

This was reported an hour ago.

Two hours on, note the times: It's growing fast,  real-time updates:  http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia

Statistics as of 2020-01-22 19:39
confirmed 473 suspected 137 cured 25 died 9  

Statistics as of 2020-01-22 21:31
confirmed 543 suspected 137 cured 25 died 17

Statistics as of 2020-01-22 21:55
confirmed 544 suspected 137 cured 28 died 17

Statistics as of 2020-01-22 23:13
confirmed 549 suspected 137 cured 28 died 17

 

Based on these numbers experts estimate the toal number of infections is ~5000. Not from bad meat from a closed meat market. Your suggestion it's under control, even the dead get medical, sounds like the Chinese government during the SARS epidemic.

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by rabas

[rabas]

2 hours ago, Traubert said:

Death toll stands at 9 all in Hubei, all either elderly or with other pre-existing conditions including liver disease in one case, and multiple organ damage in another.

Just curious how you know the personal medical history of those who died. Such info is rarely released.

 

[White Christmas13]

6 hours ago, Mavideol said:

555 .... and they are doing much better in preventing the epidemic, that's why every day the death numbers are going up.... but they are doing much better

read this

 

How many people die from common cold each year?

The CDC estimates that as many as 56,000 people die from the flu or flu-like illness each year. SOURCES: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases: "Common Cold."

[Kelsall]

11 hours ago, Traubert said:

Its authoritarian actually.

 

They have been advised that there's no need to restrict travel at this stage by the World Health Organisation.

And 11 hours later they are restricting travel, having quarantined the city of Wuhan.

 

Good move and I hope it's not too late.

[Kelsall]

1 hour ago, Kelsall said:

And 11 hours later they are restricting travel, having quarantined the city of Wuhan.

 

Good move and I hope it's not too late.

This is, though, good news for those of us in Chiang Mai.  We have direct flights from Wuhan to here.  Shutting them down just ahead of CNY should make all CM residents feel better.

[jrward42]

Hopefully this can be caught in time but I have read that incubation time is anything from 3 days to a week. 

[rabas]

11 hours ago, rabas said:

Just curious how you know the personal medical history of those who died. Such info is rarely released.

Just answered my own question. They are releasing medical histories of people who died, posted on flutrackers.com.  A good sign China is more responsive this time. Let's hope the virus is not.

 

[car720]

16 hours ago, anterian said:

As China is a totalitarian state could they not cancel or seriously restrict the annual CNY migration.

I understand your thinking but unless you live in China it is hard to understand the global 'return home' that occurs for Spring Festival.  They come home from around the world.

[Isaan sailor]

Chinese Coronavirus coming in from the north.  PM 2.5 air pollutants drifting up from the south.  Enjoy your Golden Week...

[englishoak]

4 hours ago, Kelsall said:

And 11 hours later they are restricting travel, having quarantined the city of Wuhan.

 

Good move and I hope it's not too late.

Good luck quarantining 9 million people for very long. If it turns bad China will have to get pretty heavy handed to enforce those restrictions but being China it probably wouldnt balk at any measures however extreme deemed necessary.

 

Lets hope its no worse than the SARS outbreak. 

 

 

[Traubert]

12 hours ago, rabas said:

Just curious how you know the personal medical history of those who died. Such info is rarely released.

 

In the west maybe. Not here in China. I don't know their personal medical history. I'm just relaying what was reported. Dont try and shoot the messenger.

[Mavideol]

15 hours ago, Kelsall said:

link?

PRC/CCP or any Chinese government agency 555

[Mavideol]

12 hours ago, rabas said:

Just curious how you know the personal medical history of those who died. Such info is rarely released.

 

he's a PRC insider/agent, has infiltrated TV, he will do or say (including lies) anything to protect China's reputation

[URMySunshine]

Crikey this sounds bad. They say the first rule of a crisis is don't panic and the second rule is if you must panic first. Maybe time to stock up just in case whilst you can........

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/23/coronavirus-panic-and-anger-in-wuhan-as-china-orders-city-into-lockdown

[Isaan sailor]

2 hours ago, Traubert said:

In the west maybe. Not here in China. I don't know their personal medical history. I'm just relaying what was reported. Dont try and shoot the messenger.

Just curious, Traubert—what precautions do you take to protect yourself from the Coronavirus there in Communist China?

[TheDark]

18 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Just curious, Traubert—what precautions do you take to protect yourself from the Coronavirus there in Communist China?

I believe collective measures to restrict movements and care for the ones who have shown symptoms are the best at this point. 

[car720]

21 hours ago, Traubert said:

In the west maybe. Not here in China. I don't know their personal medical history. I'm just relaying what was reported. Dont try and shoot the messenger.

We are coming up to Chengdu.  We are bringing bulk masks and sanitary hand wash.  We hope this will help our family there.  5 cases in Sichuan at the moment.  Our family are all medics.

[Scott]

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