China locks down two cities at epicentre of virus outbreak

[Traubert 4,720]

1 hour ago, URMySunshine said:

He called it 'free WeChat' in my conversation so it is no doubt as you say. Uncensored was his point I think and therefore deemed to be one yardstick of testing the temperature of true public feeling. Of course the internet is very bad in amplifying news feed without analysis or context and if I was locked down with food shortages and panic buying I would no doubt be angry and afraid.  With what we know so far the Chinese authorities seem to be doing the best they can maybe partly down to the amount of criticism they received for their handling of SARS.

 

So long as they dont cover stuff up, and release info in a timely manner, I won't criticise them over stuff this time. Because contrary to the wording some articles will no doubt use when taking a blame angle, I don't think there are any countries that could manage to suppress an outbreak of a new infectious respiratory disease if it develops the ability to spread between people with ease. We never have managed such a thing before, to my knowledge. But you still have to try anyway because if it turns out to not be such a good spreader, but is rather deadly, then control and containment may be viable, and the stakes are different.

Yeah, WeChat is unencrypted but to go into the details would be off topic and hardly relevant to what's going on anyway. Point being your nephew has a line into the centre.

 

I think at the moment there's little more they can do from the Chinese authorities point of view. The are very much taking action that the WHO recommends. As Mr Rabas says above there will be enormous pressure on medical staff. A little insight here into the Chinese mentality might be in order.

 

The Government has declared that the cost of treatment for the disease will not be borne by the sufferer. Instantly, and particularly among the elderly and middle aged, the light goes on, 'I can get a free check' and off they'll go to the local hospital. It's a very 'me first' society. In this case and because the youngest fatality so far is 48, you can see their point, but the clamour they will raise will be deafening, and the longer they wait the more fear will spread. Even in normal times IV rooms across the country are full of people with a slight sniffle.

 

It's a country full of hypochondriacs. Not ideal in a situation like this.

[toofarnorth 4,168]

13 hours ago, URMySunshine said:

The horse has probably already bolted. Because when you see hundreds of cases showing up, that usually means there have actually been many thousands of cases already (because plenty will be asymptomatic or too mild to have raised any flags). The number of cases detected abroad (people who travelled from Wuhan) gives further clues to the scale of the problem at source (larger than originally suggested for sure, hence rising estimates in recent days).

 

Initial mortality data (which should be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage) suggests the usual picture - the old, and those with chronic underlying health problems are most likely to end up with severe consequences after catching this coronavirus. The wider picture will take a while to become clear. For example one possible scenario is that this coronavirus could quickly become endemic, joining the other things which we have always lumped together as 'the common cold'. Possible with not very different mortality and severe disease rates to what we already have to deal with. Slightly or much worse scenarios exist too though.

 

A lot of this 'noise' is going to be the phenomenon of internet amplification hopefully and it will turn out to be over hyped and ruthlessly controlled. Let's hope so time will soon tell. My nephew who is married to a chinese girl and can speak fluent chinese is monitoring free wechat which is the stuff that passes chinese censorship and he tells me that the news on the ground from millions of lock down folk is fear,panic and anger at the government. And he feels whatever the outcome it is damaging the chinese people's faith in their all powerful government. Let's hope so mahk mahk. With the fires in Australia, smog over Thailand and now this these are certainly interesting times to be alive.

 

2 Timothy 3v1    ' Know this , in the last days , critical times hard to deal with will be here , men will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money . '  etc.

[englishoak 9,571]

Just in China is closing down access to the forbidden city until further notice... 10 Chinese cities now under quarantine. Thats currently 30 million people. plenty in quarantine zones trying to get away from the epidemic by any means possible, they will lie and do whatever they can to get out as things worsen. Suspect cases now reported in 10 other countries and Chinese new year starts today with millions travelling all over the globe already.  

 

News cycle over the coming weeks is going to be dominated by this outbreak and China is going into lockdown and rumours of the internet in the Wuhan region is going to be shut down are circulating. 

 

Respirator machines are already in short supply along with doctors and nurses already doing quadruple shifts and things are only going to get worse. Then there is the question of logistics as regions in lockdown begin to experience shortages, desertion and esperation etc. On top of all this it is also the season for virus, flu and cold outbreaks which will only confuse diagnosis and add to the panic. 

 

Sidenote SARS took out about 1% of Chinas Gdp during that crisis and its growth has been slowing and accelerating due to the trade war. This crisis could not have come at a worse time for China.

 

Xi is going to have a lot of angry and desperate people very soon. The CCP is not a very forgiving regime and is apt to find blame where it can.. Xi with 1.2 billion looking to him for a solution must be feeling a bit under pressure atm and his mandate of heaven isnt looking so secure all of a sudden. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by englishoak

[rabas 5,301]

China shutters all 70,000 movie theatres.

Wow.

 

And now this from the South China Post's (HK) most expert medical reporters:

 

China coronavirus: Wuhan medical staff being infected at much faster pace than reported as national death toll hits 25

 

A description of conditions in Wuhan hospitals. They have assigned a special ward for infected medical personnel.

[DrTuner 24,558]

Will be interesting to see what the result after CNY is. Death toll will increase as well as the percentage, as it takes weeks to croak from the flu. The mass migration provides a perfect platform for the virus to spread. Other countries should start preparing travel bans.

[englishoak 9,571]

BREAKING: Jingzhou, population 6 million people, will be put on lockdown from 5 p.m.

 

At this rate the entire country will be locked down by the end of its new year... Given China tends to underplay things that affect its image its likely to be worse than reports so probably not such a bad move at this stage tbh. This is definitely now a major crisis in China and new year could easily make the headaches much bigger as many will want and expect to be on the move during new year and after. Will be surprised if WHO drags its heels much longer. 

[URMySunshine 1,771]

1 hour ago, englishoak said:

Just in China is closing down access to the forbidden city until further notice... 10 Chinese cities now under quarantine. Thats currently 30 million people. plenty in quarantine zones trying to get away from the epidemic by any means possible, they will lie and do whatever they can to get out as things worsen. Suspect cases now reported in 10 other countries and Chinese new year starts today with millions travelling all over the globe already.  

 

News cycle over the coming weeks is going to be dominated by this outbreak and China is going into lockdown and rumours of the internet in the Wuhan region is going to be shut down are circulating. 

 

Respirator machines are already in short supply along with doctors and nurses already doing quadruple shifts and things are only going to get worse. Then there is the question of logistics as regions in lockdown begin to experience shortages, desertion and esperation etc. On top of all this it is also the season for virus, flu and cold outbreaks which will only confuse diagnosis and add to the panic. 

 

Sidenote SARS took out about 1% of Chinas Gdp during that crisis and its growth has been slowing and accelerating due to the trade war. This crisis could not have come at a worse time for China.

 

Xi is going to have a lot of angry and desperate people very soon. The CCP is not a very forgiving regime and is apt to find blame where it can.. Xi with 1.2 billion looking to him for a solution must be feeling a bit under pressure atm and his mandate of heaven isnt looking so secure all of a sudden. 

 

 

 

 

Hence maybe the 'theatre' of building a thousand bed hospital in Wuhan if that is what it is with dozens of diggers. I would have thought tented temporary field hospitals like the army have would be a better use of resources than that. But like a lot of what will be in the next few weeks there will be a lot of speculation for sure. But what is certain we have never seen a response like this ever and I'm not sure whether that portends good or bad. 

[DrTuner 24,558]

6 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

Hence maybe the 'theatre' of building a thousand bed hospital in Wuhan if that is what it is with dozens of diggers.

It's not usually hospital beds if they are digging holes in the ground..more like a morgue.

Edited January 24, 2020 by DrTuner

[rabas 5,301]

9 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

Hence maybe the 'theatre' of building a thousand bed hospital in Wuhan if that is what it is with dozens of diggers. I would have thought tented temporary field hospitals like the army have would be a better use of resources than that. But like a lot of what will be in the next few weeks there will be a lot of speculation for sure. But what is certain we have never seen a response like this ever and I'm not sure whether that portends good or bad. 

A few years back a Chinese company developed methods for extremely rapid high rise building constitution. They built a 57 story skyscraper in 19 days as a demo.  I think they are serious, and worried.

 

[URMySunshine 1,771]

31 minutes ago, rabas said:

China shutters all 70,000 movie theatres.

Wow.

 

And now this from the South China Post's (HK) most expert medical reporters:

 

China coronavirus: Wuhan medical staff being infected at much faster pace than reported as national death toll hits 25

 

A description of conditions in Wuhan hospitals. They have assigned a special ward for infected medical personnel.

One wonders is there an element of hysteria here that is fuelling the response - inflamed by the rise of social media amplifying and feeding back everything. If it it 10x worse than SARS then that would only be 8000 deaths in the final reckoning. Not good but no different form an average flu epidemic. Or maybe this time it is different with higher rates of mortality and their response is proportionate or maybe even not enough. The best minds in the world and medical folk need to be fully engaged and fast for sure. 

[metisdead 8,871]

Posts in violation of fair use policy have been removed:

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

[DrTuner 24,558]

49 minutes ago, rhyddid said:

By the way, i understood virus paranoia is up to the sky, but have you notice that each main stream media got a different figures, we can play them at lotto ! 

Well they do have to make a guess as the Chinese figures are as good as playing lotto. With the certainty no number wins.

[Kinnock 3,639]

[URMySunshine 1,771]

This is what panic looks like - they are in the worse possible place if they don't have the disease sadly. 

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by URMySunshine

[DrTuner 24,558]

5 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

People stopping to eat exotic wildlife - even more impressive. I think they managed to do that in the west a century or two ago.