WHO says 'bit too early' to declare coronavirus a global emergency

[webfact]

WHO says 'bit too early' to declare coronavirus a global emergency

By Stephanie Nebehay and Yawen Chen

 

Passengers wear masks to prevent an outbreak of a new coronavirus at the Hong Kong West Kowloon High Speed Train Station, in Hong Kong, China January 23, 2020. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

 

GENEVA/BEIJING (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Thursday it was "a bit too early" to declare a new coronavirus a global health emergency as China put millions of people on lockdown amid an outbreak that has killed 18 people and infected more than 630.

 

Health officials fear the transmission rate could accelerate as hundreds of millions of Chinese travel at home and abroad during week-long holidays for the Lunar New Year, which begins on Saturday.

 

"It is a bit too early to consider that this is a public health emergency of international concern," the WHO Emergency Committee panel chair Didier Houssin said in Geneva.

 

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the organisation's Emergency Committee of 16 independent experts had been divided in its conclusion.

 

"Make no mistake, though, this is an emergency in China. But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one," said Tedros.

 

He said China had taken measures which it believes are appropriate.

 

"We hope they will be both effective and short in their duration... For the moment, the WHO does not recommend any broader restrictions on travel or trade."

 

China's decision to lock down Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, shows how committed the authorities are to contain a viral outbreak that emerged in a seafood market there, a World Health Organization representative in Beijing said on Thursday.

 

Peter Piot, a professor of Global Health and Director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the outbreak was at a critical phase.

 

"Regardless of the decision not to declare this a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, intensified international collaboration and more resources will be crucial to stopping this outbreak in its tracks. National authorities and the World Health Organisation will need to continue to monitor developments very closely."

 

Giving details on infections in China, Chinese state television said 634 cases had been confirmed. By the end of Wednesday, China's National Health Commission confirmed 17 dead in the central province of Hubei.

 

Health authorities in Hebei, just south of Beijing, said on Thursday an 80-year-old man infected with the coronavirus had died there, marking the first confirmed death outside Hubei.

 

The previously unknown virus strain is believed to have emerged late last year from illegally traded wildlife at an animal market in the capital of Hubei province, Wuhan.

 

Most transport in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, was suspended on Thursday and people were told not to leave. Hours later, neighbouring Huanggang, a city of about 7 million people, announced a similar lockdown.

 

"The lockdown of 11 million people is unprecedented in public health history," said Gauden Galea, the WHO's representative in Beijing.

 

The newly identified coronavirus has created alarm because there are a number of unknowns surrounding it. It is too early to know just how dangerous it is and how easily it spreads between people.

 

There is no vaccine for the virus, which can spread through respiratory transmission. Symptoms include fever, difficulty breathing and coughing, similar to many other respiratory illnesses.

 

Three research teams are to start work on developing a vaccine, a global coalition set up to fight diseases said.

 

As well as restricting movement, Wuhan plans to build a new hospital in six days to treat patients, Beijing News reported, citing a construction company source.

 

Other cities were also taking steps to contain the virus.

 

Nearby Ezhou shut train stations. Beijing cancelled large gatherings, including two Lunar New Year temple fairs, and closed the Forbidden City, the capital's most famous tourist attraction, to visitors until further notice.

 

The U.S. State Department warned travellers to exercise increased caution in China as airports worldwide were screening passengers arriving from the country. Five people were being tested in Scotland for coronavirus and one person in Belfast showing symptoms was being treated, Sky News reported.

 

Chinese-ruled Hong Kong, which has two confirmed cases, is turning two holiday camps into quarantine stations as a precaution.

Taiwan has banned anyone from Wuhan from going to the island.

 

Chinese people had their own ways of protecting themselves.

 

"I go straight to where I need to go, and then I go home," said 79-year-old Li Meihua, from behind a mask, on the streets of Shanghai. "I'm also maintaining a cleaner diet, I've turned vegetarian."

 

(Reporting by Yawen Chen, Se Young Lee, Sophie Yu and Gabriel Crossley in Beijing, Sam Shen and Engen Tham in Shanghai, Ben Blanchard in Taiwan, Alison Lui and Donny Kwok in Hong Kong, John Geddie and Aradhana Aravindan in Singapore, Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva, and Kate Kelland and Elizabeth Howcroft in London; Writing by Alison Williams and Nick Macfie; Editing by Janet Lawrence and Rosalba O'Brien)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-01-24

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[mike787]

Ok, they are the experts...

[NanLaew]

I guess all those rich, entitled and enabled attendees at Davos, some of whose vested interests would take a monumental hit if a global pandemic was officially recognized, need a few extra days to ensure their flight plans aren't disrupted and their money is safe.

 

Note to investors; the time to get into pharmaco's that manufacture flu vaccines is NOW!

[Samui Bodoh]

These are the people who study this sort of thing, so I will defer to them; I sincerely hope that the current international push against 'experts' and 'facts' and the onset of 'anti-vaxxers' and 'fake news' doesn't rear its ugly head; this is definitely a time when we need pure science and not ignorant people's 'alternate' explanation and/or 'opinions' of events. If Trump starts to say that he knows more than the doctors, I'll take a bath with a plugged in toaster!

 

Notwithstanding the above, I would worry. Yes, I think that China will take the necessary steps to contain the outbreak, but I recall the SARS outbreak of years ago where action occurred later than it should have. I also fear the Chinese 'Face' getting in the way of either admitting that there is a problem and/or asking for help.

 

There are many who think that this sort of thing is much more likely to lead to the end of humanity than war, especially a nuclear war. Although I might be naive, I do think that humanity can pull back on its worst impulses to destroy. However, I have seen the overuse and abuse of anti-biotics in Asia for decades and read about their declining effectiveness all over the world for just as long. There are those who believe that we as a specifies are on the verge of losing anti-biotics for good, and then what will we do? Create mini enclaves and not allow strangers in until a quarantine period has passed? Just shoot the sick? End wide-spread, mass travel? Build idiotic, ineffective walls?

 

I'll defer to the experts at the WHO, but I'll be limiting my contact with the Chinese for now.

 

PS For all those who endlessly whine about the UN and how ineffective/evil it is, the WHO is a UN agency, and a damn good one. It is a good thing to remember; some issues need a global perspective and this is one of those times...

 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[RubbaJohnny]

There is an interactive live update  map that reveals it has spread beyond Wuhan as far as Latin America .

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Not sure how accurate as when you click on Austrlia in the left tool bar it jumps to Saipan?

 

The source is John Hopkins a respected US University.

https://systems.jhu.edu/

[smedly]

6 cases in the UK and Thailand only one or two

 

seriously ?

 

I think someone is telling porkies

[AlexRich]

It's too early to call. The Chinese authorities are behaving a bit more responsibly than they did during the SARS outbreak, so hopefully the World can take control of this problem and eliminate it.

[AlexRich]

2 minutes ago, smedly said:

6 cases in the UK and Thailand only one or two

 

seriously ?

 

I think someone is telling porkies

The UK is not confirmed, just suspected.

[NanLaew]

35 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

These are the people who study this sort of thing, so I will defer to them; I sincerely hope that the current international push against 'experts' and 'facts' and the onset of 'anti-vaxxers' and 'fake news' doesn't rear its ugly head; this is definitely a time when we need pure science and not ignorant people's 'alternate' explanation and/or 'opinions' of events. If Trump starts to say that he knows more than the doctors, I'll take a bath with a plugged in toaster!

 

Notwithstanding the above, I would worry. Yes, I think that China will take the necessary steps to contain the outbreak, but I recall the SARS outbreak of years ago where action occurred later than it should have. I also fear the Chinese 'Face' getting in the way of either admitting that there is a problem and/or asking for help.

 

There are many who think that this sort of thing is much more likely to lead to the end of humanity than war, especially a nuclear war. Although I might be naive, I do think that humanity can pull back on its worst impulses to destroy. However, I have seen the overuse and abuse of anti-biotics in Asia for decades and read about their declining effectiveness all over the world for just as long. There are those who believe that we as a specifies are on the verge of losing anti-biotics for good, and then what will we do? Create mini enclaves and not allow strangers in until a quarantine period has passed? Just shoot the sick? End wide-spread, mass travel? Build idiotic, ineffective walls?

 

I'll defer to the experts at the WHO, but I'll be limiting my contact with the Chinese for now.

 

PS For all those who endlessly whine about the UN and how ineffective/evil it is, the WHO is a UN agency, and a damn good one. It is a good thing to remember; some issues need a global perspective and this is one of those times...

 

 

 

I too defer to the WHO experts who notably are reported to be 'divided' on this decision to elevate it towards a global health emergency.

 

What caught my attention was their using the term 'a bit too early' versus a more simple, decisive 'too early'. In the context that the experts are indeed divided, this would seem to be simply deferring their decision. However, to the inner-cynic in me, rather than inferring it is inevitable, it suggests that the decision has already been made but for some reason the announcement, that will undoubtedly have an impact on global markets, is being deferred possibly on other, non-medical grounds. It makes a big difference if it is announced while the markets are closed, like over the weekend. In that context, I think it's called hedging one's bets.

Edited January 23, 2020 by NanLaew

[Scott]

Troll post removed.

 

[Samui Bodoh]

1 hour ago, NanLaew said:

I too defer to the WHO experts who notably are reported to be 'divided' on this decision to elevate it towards a global health emergency.

 

What caught my attention was their using the term 'a bit too early' versus a more simple, decisive 'too early'. In the context that the experts are indeed divided, this would seem to be simply deferring their decision. However, to the inner-cynic in me, rather than inferring it is inevitable, it suggests that the decision has already been made but for some reason the announcement, that will undoubtedly have an impact on global markets, is being deferred possibly on other, non-medical grounds. It makes a big difference if it is announced while the markets are closed, like over the weekend. In that context, I think it's called hedging one's bets.

Interesting post, but (respectfully) I very much doubt its accuracy. Yes, formal declarations would likely have an effect on markets, but I doubt that financial considerations enter into the WHO criteria for medical decision-making. Simply put, your theory is an extraordinary claim, and extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, but you do not provide it. That said, I am all ears.

 

A far, far more likely reason for hesitating to formally declare a global emergency lies inside the criteria set out by the WHO for these kinds of decisions. I have worked with the UN on numerous occasions, and agencies usually have a sliding scale of responses to situations based on formal, designated criteria. It is speculation on my part as I do not know the specifics in the WHO, but I think that there would need to be a certain number of cases, or a certain number of deaths, or a certain geographical threshold reached, or a statistically-relevant number attained, or the spread of the disease within a certain time-frame, etc etc, etc.

 

Further, based on my experience with the UN, when a threshold is reached, it triggers some required responses and I suspect that the WHO would prefer to keep things voluntary and low-key for as long as possible. Should the WHO formally declare a global emergency, it would likely trigger obligations on behalf of member states such as airport screening, creating of dedicated medical teams, areas in hospitals set aside for possible cases, travel bans, etc etc etc. These actions by member states have consequences, and I think that the WHO is hesitating as it wants to be sure that it is correct before triggering a response.

 

Finally, the simple fact is that the UN, and the UN agencies, all have enemies in certain national governments who endlessly whine/complain about the UN (think 'Black Helicopters' and the like). I am guessing that the WHO is being very cautious (perhaps too cautious) about formal declarations so that they do not give ammunition to the enemies of the UN. Yes, it is a sad thing to say, but that it is the reality of 2020.

 

I think we should be glad that the WHO exists, and the next time you hear someone going on about the UN, remind them that germs and virus' do not respect national borders; there is a global need for some global agencies.

 

[Roy Baht]

No cases in South America, Africa, Antarctica. Not global.

[IAMHERE]

Not many died so far at all. Hardly a pandemic. Media hype.

[zydeco]

1 hour ago, Roy Baht said:

No cases in South America, Africa, Antarctica. Not global.

Yep. And South America and Africa. No fear of officials delaying reporting (if they are even capable of it) or sweeping things under the rug there, of course.

[zydeco]

Everyone can rest easy now. 

Quote

“We have it totally under control,” Trump told “Squawk Box” co-host Joe Kernen in an interview from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”   https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/22/trump-on-coronavirus-from-china-we-have-it-totally-under-control.html

And with that comment, stocks rebounded. Entirely coincidental, naturally.

[SkyFax]

5 hours ago, smedly said:

6 cases in the UK and Thailand only one or two

 

seriously ?

 

I think someone is telling porkies

Yes -- I wonder who would do such a thing.

 

"Globally, there are more than 500 confirmed cases of the virus, which has killed 18 people in China.

But there are no known cases in the UK, Mr Hancock said, which was "well prepared" to deal with an outbreak."

 

BBC -- 3 hours ago 9:59AM Bangkok time 24JAN2020

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51221915

[zydeco]

Greg was okay. But I really hated Charles.

 

 

[Caldera]

At any given time, it's either "a bit too early" or "a bit too late".

[rabas]

3 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I think we should be glad that the WHO exists, and the next time you hear someone going on about the UN, remind them that germs and virus' do not respect national borders; there is a global need for some global agencies.

I too worked for the UN for a bit, UNDP/ICAO here in Asia. What you say about the UN is all spot on, except, the majority of complainers target the very visible political side of the UN. Having worked there you know (probably better than I do) that the UN is like an iceberg, 90% of what it does is not political and not visible with 1000s of programs helping almost every country develop and to maintain a stable world. Who knew that when your plane lands on time, in the right city, it's in part due to the UN. Where the UN is involved in politics, the part we see in the news, complaints may well be justified.

 

As for WHO, they will come to the most correct decision, eventually. For me though it's back to weibo and Chinese experts on twitter. What is the death toll now? Click.

 

2020-01-24 10:03

China: confirmed cases 868 suspected cases 1072 cured cases 34 dead 26. Ouch.

 

[URMySunshine]

4 hours ago, IAMHERE said:

Not many died so far at all. Hardly a pandemic. Media hype.

I have never hoped for a post to be more true than this. Let's hope so. 

[DrTuner]

Does it even matter? What exact actions (actions as in real action, not blowing hot air) would be taken if WHO does declare an emergency?

Edited January 24, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

11 hours ago, smedly said:

6 cases in the UK and Thailand only one or two

 

seriously ?

 

I think someone is telling porkies

What I'd like to know is how Thailand gained the capability to detect the virus, which is brand new, in apparently a few days.. did they convert those GT200s?

[stevenl]

18 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

What I'd like to know is how Thailand gained the capability to detect the virus, which is brand new, in apparently a few days.. did they convert those GT200s?

China can, UK can, USA can, Hong Kong can. Why do you think Thailand can not?

[smutcakes]

3 minutes ago, stevenl said:

China can, UK can, USA can, Hong Kong can. Why do you think Thailand can not?

He does not think at all, every single post he makes is negative about Thailand with no regard for truth.

[saengd]

The title of the thread is missing a question mark at the end.

[DrTuner]

33 minutes ago, stevenl said:

China can, UK can, USA can, Hong Kong can. Why do you think Thailand can not?

Their track record in spewing out "news" before anything was really done.

[spiekerjozef]

What's this got to do with the rock band the WHO?

[rabas]

2 minutes ago, spiekerjozef said:

What's this got to do with the rock band the WHO?

Who?

 

Actually, who's on first.

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by rabas

[DrTuner]

Found it: https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/laboratory-diagnostics-for-novel-coronavirus

 

You'll need a lab with rRT-PCR capabilities. Who has them?

[smutcakes]

17 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Found it: https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/laboratory-diagnostics-for-novel-coronavirus

 

You'll need a lab with rRT-PCR capabilities. Who has them?

I am sure the WHO have never thouhht of this when announcing numbers. I presume most have them from SARS MERS and the alike.