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Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

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14 hours ago, opalred said:

i do have to add the problem will be with everyone getting the flu it will be hard to identify the differences

this is the first flu i have had here after 15yrs   /the only way you know anything is from the local community/if everyone here is getting it/everyone in north must be getting it / the govt wont tell you anything 

The way it looks to me is that Chang Mai will be the first of the big towns to get locked down.

 

As long as it stays dry and hot in Isaan we should be OK.

 

This virus could be the end of us humans in many areas so I think the governments should be working overtime on this.

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A grave assessment of the virus....US Senate & military.....

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1 hour ago, owl sees all said:

The way it looks to me is that Chang Mai will be the first of the big towns to get locked down.

 

As long as it stays dry and hot in Isaan we should be OK.

 

This virus could be the end of us humans in many areas so I think the governments should be working overtime on this.

I have a fondness for a village on the Mae Mekong , just a wee north of UT. This was the first year I did not go back to Chieng Dao or to that pleasant place on the Mae Nam Mekong. I believe you are suggesting a serious possibility, regarding the potential of a quarantine on Chiengmai. I just read that the Thai Government is considering visa free travel for Chinese, to not lose future business. I certainly would not like to be healthy and locked in with the sick on one side and the army on the other side. This might be the first time that Farrang and Thai are equal.

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42 minutes ago, Teak said:

I have a fondness for a village on the Mae Mekong , just a wee north of UT. This was the first year I did not go back to Chieng Dao or to that pleasant place on the Mae Nam Mekong. I believe you are suggesting a serious possibility, regarding the potential of a quarantine on Chiengmai. I just read that the Thai Government is considering visa free travel for Chinese, to not lose future business. I certainly would not like to be healthy and locked in with the sick on one side and the army on the other side. This might be the first time that Farrang and Thai are equal.

 

43 minutes ago, Teak said:

I am always surprised of the naivety of the retirees in Thailand who do not bother to know, or have experienced, Thailand's history. My personal pivotal point was in 1992 'Black May'. Prior to that date, there was the other situation in 1976. (before my time). These things happen in all countries. However,......sitting in a gated community and playing golf and getting fatter....just might not protect you from the politics of this new Chinese virus. Naming it Corvid-19 is important because W.H.O needs to segregate adaptions of the virus to know which strain they are dealing with, at the moment. Yes....No more Chinese virus, it will 'possibly' mutate to survive. That is what we and the virus do...we adapt, and we survive, if we can. It is interesting that humans and viruses are quite similar. However, it seems, in Thailand politics and the the lack of Chinese tourism appears to be of a greater threat. Singapore has placed a ban on Chinese tourists. I have been in Singapore dozens of times, They do make a marked difference between Singaporean Chinese, Taiwan Chinese, Hong Kong Chinese, Expat Chinese and "Main Landers". Inviting people from any geographical location that is known to potentially be infectious  is simply ....stupid.  I know there must be a better word.

 

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Notice how the people treating infected people are all wearing tight-fitting eye protectors? 

If the virus can enter via the mouth and nose, it's logical to see how it can enter via around the eyes and specifically the tear ducts. 

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42 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

Notice how the people treating infected people are all wearing tight-fitting eye protectors? 

If the virus can enter via the mouth and nose, it's logical to see how it can enter via around the eyes and specifically the tear ducts. 

The transmission through the eyes was mooted and tested and advised as a route weeks ago

Edited by RJRS1301

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i like trump the carnival clown said //wont be a problem as the cold weather is going and warm weather will come and wont survive //how come it is surviving and spreading in Singapore /a tropical climate ?

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Wuhan family forcibly removed from their home into quarantine facility....

 

 

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46 minutes ago, opalred said:

i like trump the carnival clown said //wont be a problem as the cold weather is going and warm weather will come and wont survive //how come it is surviving and spreading in Singapore /a tropical climate ?

Could be that the virus is surviving in hosts in hot climate, but not so long outside the body?  Apart from in air conditioned conference centres...

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1 hour ago, opalred said:

i like trump the carnival clown said //wont be a problem as the cold weather is going and warm weather will come and wont survive //how come it is surviving and spreading in Singapore /a tropical climate ?

Ask the professor of medicine and physiology Trump, just another raving of the unstable genius

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1 hour ago, Samuel Smith said:

Could be that the virus is surviving in hosts in hot climate, but not so long outside the body?  Apart from in air conditioned conference centres...

Yes, this exactly.

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"Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said during a CDC news conference in early 2020. Scientists don't yet know how long the novel coronavirus can survive outside a host."

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According to https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

it seems that SARS didnt survive nearly as long on surfaces in hot weather according to that study. And droplets may spread further in cold weather according to https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/hot-climate-wuhan-virus-vaccine-12389694

Not exactly the same virus, but from what I read scientists seem to think they might react the same. 

 

Edited by playyer

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An intellectually satisfying overview of the state of the art in modeling epidemics:

 

"Disease modelers gaze into their computers to see the future of Covid-19, and it isn’t good" 02/14, 2020

 

clickee: modeling the future of Covid-19

 

Quote

Said senior author Antoine Allard of Laval University in Quebec, “the relation between R0, the risk of an epidemic, and its potential size becomes less straightforward, and sometimes counterintuitive in more realistic models.”'

 

To make models more realistic, he and his colleagues argue, they should abandon the simplistic assumption that everyone has the same likelihood of getting sick from Covid-19 after coming in contact with someone already infected. For SARS, for instance, that likelihood clearly varied.

 

“Bodies may react differently to an infection, which in turn can facilitate or inhibit the transmission of the pathogen to others,” Allard said. “The behavioral component is also very important. Can you afford to stay at home a few days or do you go to work even if you are sick? How many people do you meet every day? Do you live alone? Do you commute by car or public transportation?”

 

When people’s chances of becoming infected vary, an outbreak is more likely to be eventually contained (by tracing contacts and isolating cases); it might reach a cumulative 550,000 cases in Wuhan, Allard and his colleagues concluded.

 

If everyone has the same chance, as with flu (absent vaccination), the probability of containment is significantly lower and could reach 4.4 million there. Or as the researchers warn, “the outbreak almost certainly cannot be contained and we must prepare for a pandemic ….”

 

~o:37;

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On 2/14/2020 at 8:21 AM, pgrahmm said:

A grave assessment of the virus....US Senate & military.....

The guy did not say anything verifiable, just hot air from a right wing ex army conspiracy theorist.  

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